证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 17 年 月 日 电子 周观点：AI 芯片出口限制缩减，NV 需求高增 美国 BIS 废除 AI 芯片扩散规则，新增大量芯片订单。规则废除后， 以英伟达、AMD 为代表的美企芯片出口限制缩减，芯片需求增量较大， 英伟达核心产业链上的公司有望充分受益于新增需求。 NV 芯片出口限制缩减，中东新增较大芯片需求。2025 年 5 月 13 日， 美国 BIS 宣布撤销拜登政府时期的《人工智能扩散暂行最终规则》，原 规则规定了对全球 AI 芯片出口的限制措施，将全球划分为三个不同 "层级"的区域，并据此决定不同国家和地区从美国获取先进的人工 智能技术和 CPU 芯片的范围。在 2025 年 5 月 13 日沙特—美国投资论 坛期间，英伟达宣布将向沙特 AI 公司 Humain 交付超过 1.8 万颗最新 GB300 Blackwell 芯片，以共同部署一个 500 兆瓦的 AI 基础设施项目。 此外，AMD 为沙特的"跨大西洋 AI 走廊"项目提供价值百亿美元的芯 片与软件支持，高通与 Humain 签署谅解备忘录，计划在沙特开发和 构建基于高通边 ...

Group 1: Financial Investment Trends - The financial investment growth rate for listed banks showed divergence, with rural commercial banks rebounding to 8.30% in Q1 2025 after a decline in 2024[2] - State-owned banks' financial investment growth was weaker compared to other types of banks due to liability pressures[2] - The average contribution of investment net income to revenue increased, with contributions for state-owned, joint-stock, city commercial, and rural commercial banks at 6.95%, 18.56%, 25.86%, and 28.85% respectively in Q1 2025[2][31] Group 2: OCI Account and Profit Realization - The average proportion of OCI accounts increased to 32.5%, while the average AC proportion decreased to 47.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a greater reliance on OCI accounts for profit adjustment[2][28] - Estimated remaining sellable old bonds for listed banks is approximately 4.5 trillion yuan, with state-owned banks holding about 2.8 trillion yuan[4] - The pressure to sell bonds may re-emerge in Q2, raising questions about the remaining space for selling old bonds[3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The average net profit growth rate for listed banks declined from 4.83% in 2024 to 2.29% in Q1 2025, with some banks experiencing negative growth[19] - Average interest margin narrowed to 1.58% in Q1 2025, down from 1.61% in 2024, indicating ongoing profitability pressure[21] - Interest income remains the primary revenue source, but the average interest net income for state-owned banks decreased by 2.75% year-on-year[23] Group 4: Asset Quality and Risk - Overall asset quality improved, but potential risks accumulated, particularly with an increase in the proportion of special mention loans for rural commercial banks[5] - The capital adequacy ratio for various banks declined, with state-owned banks experiencing the most significant drop, indicating pressure on capital retention capabilities[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 41 USD and 162 HKD based on a 9x 2025e P/E ratio [3][5]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.1 billion CNY for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. The revenue breakdown includes JD Retail at 263.8 billion CNY, JD Logistics at 47.0 billion CNY, and new businesses at 5.8 billion CNY, with respective growth rates of 16.3%, 11.5%, and 18.1% [1]. - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of 12.8 billion CNY for the same quarter, marking a 43% increase year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of approximately 4.2% [1]. - The growth in the consumer electronics category was particularly strong, with revenue reaching 144.3 billion CNY, up 17.1% year-on-year, driven by supportive consumption policies and JD's supply chain advantages [1]. - JD's expansion into the food delivery business has seen rapid growth, with over 1 million stores onboarded and daily orders approaching 20 million, enhancing cross-selling opportunities within its platform [2]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 are 1,300.2 billion CNY, 1,451.1 billion CNY, and 1,607.8 billion CNY, with growth rates of 12%, 12%, and 11% respectively [3][4]. - Non-GAAP net profits are expected to reach 51.0 billion CNY, 57.0 billion CNY, and 64.6 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 13% respectively [3][4]. - The report indicates a steady improvement in profit margins, with non-GAAP net profit margins projected to stabilize around 3.9% to 4.0% in the coming years [4][12].

Group 1: Key Insights from Reports - The report highlights a divergence in financial investment growth rates among large and small banks, with state-owned banks showing signs of profit-taking through bond sales in Q1 2025 [3] - The overall asset quality of banks is improving, but there is a buildup of potential risks due to insufficient internal growth momentum and a rebound in credit issuance, which puts pressure on capital [4] - The bond market is expected to experience a downward trend in interest rates, with banks expanding their OCI accounts and utilizing floating profits to adjust earnings, potentially increasing volatility in long-term bonds [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The banking sector has shown a year-on-year growth of 23.5%, indicating strong performance compared to other industries [1] - The report notes that credit demand remains low, with April 2025 showing signs of bottoming out, and a continued easing of monetary policy is anticipated to support private credit demand [4] - The report suggests that the short-term interest rates are expected to decline, enhancing the yield curve and making short-term government bonds more attractive compared to certificates of deposit [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, with the launch of its food delivery service contributing significantly to its ecosystem [6] - The company has expanded its food delivery service to over 1 million stores, achieving nearly 20 million daily orders, showcasing its rapid growth and market penetration [6] - The forecast for JD Group's revenue from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 1,300.2 billion, 1,451.1 billion, and 1,607.8 billion yuan, with a consistent growth rate of around 12% [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit demand from enterprises remains weak due to debt replacement, with April's new credit at 280 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan [1][7] - Specifically, enterprise medium and long-term loans decreased by 160 billion yuan year-on-year to 250 billion yuan, while short-term loans fell by 70 billion yuan to -480 billion yuan [1][7] - The report highlights that government bonds are the main support for social financing, with April's new social financing at 1.1591 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2249 trillion yuan, and a social financing stock growth of 8.7% [2][10] Group 2 - M2 growth is reported at 8%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, primarily driven by an expansion in non-bank deposits [3][21] - The report suggests that the monetary policy easing environment is likely to continue, with the recent rate cuts in May marking the beginning of a broader easing cycle [3][23] - The bond market is expected to experience a shift from short to long-term, with the yield curve anticipated to first steepen and then flatten, as short-term rates decline [4][23]

Credit Data Summary - In April 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, significantly lower than the previous month's 3.64 trillion and the market expectation of 764.4 billion, indicating a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year[1][3][6] - New social financing (社融) reached 1.16 trillion, which is 1.22 trillion higher year-on-year but below the expected 1.26 trillion, showing a seasonal improvement[2][8] - The growth rate of outstanding social financing increased to 8.7%, up from 8.4% in the previous month, marking the highest level in nearly a year[2][12] Structural Analysis - The structure of credit has deteriorated, particularly in the residential sector, with short-term loans decreasing for two consecutive months and mortgage loans turning negative again[2][5] - Corporate short-term loans decreased by 480 billion, while medium to long-term loans saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6 trillion, indicating weak corporate financing conditions[6][7] - Government bonds were the main support for social financing, with a significant increase of 1.07 trillion year-on-year, highlighting reliance on government debt issuance[3][8] Economic Outlook - The latest tariff adjustments are expected to alleviate economic pressure in Q2, but the overall impact on exports and GDP could be a reduction of 0.5-0.7 percentage points[4][8] - The real estate market shows signs of weakness, necessitating proactive policy measures rather than reactive ones[4][5] - Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, with expectations for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions later in the year due to ongoing economic pressures[2][4]

Key Points - The report emphasizes the importance of "high-frequency data + discretization factor construction" for future research on price-volume factors, suggesting that this combination is crucial for obtaining incremental information with low correlation to existing factors [1][10][9] - Continuous factor construction methods are discussed, highlighting that while minute and tick data can enhance performance, their contribution at the portfolio level is limited, with only a 0.5%-0.6% increase in excess annualized returns when added to daily frequency factors [2][48][41] - Discretization methods are shown to provide significant incremental value at the portfolio level, with a specific example indicating an excess annualized return of 8.15% for a strategy using "continuous + tick discretization" factors compared to a baseline [3][48][4] - The performance of the "tick discretization" factor is analyzed, revealing a monthly IC average of 0.073 and an annualized ICIR of 2.87, indicating its effectiveness even after controlling for common style and industry influences [4][58][17] - The report outlines the construction of various factor clusters, including daily, minute, and tick factors, and their respective performances, demonstrating that minute and tick factors can enhance the overall factor performance when combined with daily factors [2][38][41] - The findings suggest that while continuous factors show strong individual performance, the addition of minute and tick factors does not significantly enhance portfolio performance, indicating a potential saturation of information from these sources [39][41][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Group is "Increase" for the stock Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) with an expected EPS growth from 2.42 in 2024A to 3.32 in 2027E, and a decreasing PE ratio from 11.30 in 2024A to 8.73 in 2027E [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - Hisense Group is undergoing a significant management overhaul, introducing new directors with backgrounds in capital operations, indicating a shift from a technology-driven approach to one focused on capital empowerment [2][10]. - The restructuring of the C-end organization aims to enhance collaboration and efficiency, with the establishment of a Consumer Business Group that integrates various marketing and operational functions [3][15]. - The acquisition of Corin Electric by Hisense Net Energy demonstrates the group's commitment to diversifying into the renewable energy sector, showcasing its operational capabilities in capital markets [4][23][30]. Summary by Sections Management Changes - Hisense Group has experienced two major leadership changes in 2022 and 2023, transitioning to a younger management team led by Chairman Jia Shaoqian, who emphasizes organizational reform and efficiency [9][10]. C-end Organization - The Consumer Business Group was formed to unify the management of Hisense's consumer electronics divisions, enhancing user operation capabilities and ensuring cohesive brand and product development [3][15][19]. B-end Business Development - Hisense Net Energy has successfully acquired a controlling stake in Corin Electric, marking a strategic move into the renewable energy sector and indicating plans for increased R&D investment to expand product offerings [4][23][30]. - Hisense Group's B-end operations encompass eight major industries, with a focus on smart energy, semiconductors, automotive electronics, and network information, reflecting a diverse business portfolio [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The acquisition of French GMD Group by the company's subsidiary DSG for 100% equity and debt restructuring is a strategic move to enhance its presence in the European market, particularly in the automotive parts sector [1] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 43.57 billion yuan in 2025, representing an 18.5% year-over-year increase [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 3.79 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 249.4% compared to the previous year [4] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Strategic Expansion - The company has acquired GMD Group, a leading French automotive parts contractor, for a total consideration of 100 million euros (approximately 814 million yuan) [1] - GMD Group's restructuring involves a total debt of 363 million euros, with creditors agreeing to waive the remaining unpaid principal and interest [1] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 43.57 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 18.5%, 16.2%, and 14.5% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The net profit is expected to reach 3.79 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant growth trajectory in subsequent years [4] Market Dynamics and Product Development - The demand for flexible printed circuits (FPC) is anticipated to rise due to the increasing complexity of designs driven by AI applications and new product launches in the smartphone market [2] - The company is focusing on innovation to develop lighter and thinner FPCs to cater to emerging markets such as AI, AR/VR, and wearable devices [2] Automotive Sector Engagement - The company is actively supplying various components for new energy vehicles, including PCBs, battery packs, and structural parts, which are expected to enhance profitability as production capacity utilization improves [2]

Economic Indicators - The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, below the expected 2.4%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, matching expectations and previous values, also the lowest since April 2021[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%[2] Tariff Impact - Recent tariff reductions have decreased the average US tariff rate from 28% to approximately 18%[5] - Bloomberg model estimates show that the impact on US GDP from tariff reductions has decreased from 3.0 percentage points to 1.5 percentage points, while the inflation impact has reduced from 1.7 percentage points to 0.9 percentage points[5] - Yale model estimates indicate a GDP impact reduction from 1.1 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points and a slight inflation impact decrease from 1.6 percentage points to 1.4 percentage points[5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively, while the Dow Jones index fell by 0.6%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.47% after initially rising[4] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain unchanged, with a projected two cuts in 2025, the first expected in September[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to ongoing uncertainties in tariff negotiations and economic conditions[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in June is considered low, and expectations for a July cut should be tempered[6]