Group 1 - The core factors influencing the bond market in April were overseas factors and policy expectations, with a significant decline in the 10-year treasury yield, which dropped 18 basis points to 1.63% in the first three trading days of the month [1][9] - Credit performance in April was weaker than interest rates, with short-term credit outperforming long-term credit; the 1-year city investment bond spread decreased by 5-7 basis points, while longer-term spreads expanded [2][10] - The credit market is expected to face challenges in May, with the 3-year credit spread and the downward pressure on long-term credit being the main obstacles for the credit market's transmission [3][16] Group 2 - Seasonal trends indicate that credit bond supply typically decreases in May, while wealth management scale usually increases, providing some support for credit spreads [4][22] - The tightening of financing policies and stricter issuance reviews are expected to limit the supply of city investment bonds and industrial bonds in the short term [4][22] - The outlook for the credit market suggests that as monetary easing occurs, short-term credit rates will decline, which may restore the slope of the yield curve and provide protection for long-term rates [5][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The acquisition of French GMD Group by the company's subsidiary DSG for 100% equity and debt restructuring is a strategic move to enhance its presence in the European market, aiming to strengthen synergies and accelerate global expansion in the automotive parts sector [1] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 43.57 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 3.79 billion CNY, representing a substantial 249.4% growth [3][4] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing profitability through collaborations with major clients in the touch display module and LED display sectors [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.57 billion CNY, 50.61 billion CNY, and 57.93 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.5%, 16.2%, and 14.5% [4] - The expected net profit for the same years is 3.79 billion CNY, 4.79 billion CNY, and 5.80 billion CNY, with growth rates of 249.4%, 26.4%, and 21.1% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.22 CNY, 2.81 CNY, and 3.40 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for flexible printed circuits (FPC) driven by advancements in AI, AR/VR, and foldable screens, indicating a strong competitive advantage in the market [2] - The automotive segment is expected to see increased demand for various components, including PCBs and battery structures, particularly from new energy vehicle clients [2]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 量化点评报告 转债的配置与择时价值——五月可转债量化月报 转债的配置与择时价值。我们可以将转债个券分为偏债、平衡与偏股转债， 等权配置形成分域净值，并分别使用转债定价偏离度进行择时形成择时策 略，由策略结果可以看出： 1）平衡偏债转债风险溢价高，配置价值高但择时性价比低：平衡偏债转债 本身风险溢价较高，择时策略并未产生很明显的绩效提升，因此平衡与偏 债转债更适合弱化择时并进行长期配置，且构建因子策略进行稳定增强。 2）偏股转债风险溢价低，配置价值低但择时性价比高：偏股转债本身风险 溢价较低，夏普率与卡玛比率仅为 0.46 与 0.28。而基于估值的择时策略 可以在提升收益的同时降低风险，使得夏普率与卡玛比率分别上升至 0.87 与 0.74，因此偏股转债可以通过择时指标进行波段操作从而提升收益降低 风险。 转债的选债与择时。我们可以将选债与偏股择时按照如下方式结合： 1）选债部分：对于平衡与偏债转债我们使用低估+正股动量因子进行选债 增强，偏股转债我们使用低估因子进行选债增强。 2）择时部分：我们将平衡与偏债转债相对于中证 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 量化点评报告 转债的配置与择时价值——五月可转债量化月报 转债的配置与择时价值。我们可以将转债个券分为偏债、平衡与偏股转债， 等权配置形成分域净值，并分别使用转债定价偏离度进行择时形成择时策 略，由策略结果可以看出： 1）平衡偏债转债风险溢价高，配置价值高但择时性价比低：平衡偏债转债 本身风险溢价较高，择时策略并未产生很明显的绩效提升，因此平衡与偏 债转债更适合弱化择时并进行长期配置，且构建因子策略进行稳定增强。 2）偏股转债风险溢价低，配置价值低但择时性价比高：偏股转债本身风险 溢价较低，夏普率与卡玛比率仅为 0.46 与 0.28。而基于估值的择时策略 可以在提升收益的同时降低风险，使得夏普率与卡玛比率分别上升至 0.87 与 0.74，因此偏股转债可以通过择时指标进行波段操作从而提升收益降低 风险。 转债的选债与择时。我们可以将选债与偏股择时按照如下方式结合： 1）选债部分：对于平衡与偏债转债我们使用低估+正股动量因子进行选债 增强，偏股转债我们使用低估因子进行选债增强。 2）择时部分：我们将平衡与偏债转债相对于中证 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The first round of China-US trade talks has made substantial progress, exceeding market expectations, which will inject more certainty and stability into the global economy, further highlighting the irreplaceability of Chinese manufacturing and enhancing the investment value of Chinese assets [3] - The latest comprehensive tariff rate imposed by the US on China has decreased to 42.5%, which is expected to reduce China's exports by 4.0-5.2 percentage points and GDP by 0.5-0.7 percentage points, indicating significant downward pressure on China's economy [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key areas regarding China-US negotiations: potential fluctuations in tariffs, the main topics of negotiation, and the progress of negotiations between the US and other countries that may involve China [3] Group 2: Convertible Bonds - The report indicates that balanced convertible bonds have a high risk premium and are suitable for long-term allocation, while timing strategies have not significantly improved performance [4] - Conversely, equity-linked convertible bonds have a low risk premium but high timing value, with strategies based on valuation improving risk-adjusted returns [4] Group 3: Communication Industry - The company focuses on the optical communication industry, with its main business covering optical chips and devices, benefiting from the rapid development of AI and increasing demand from data centers [5] - The projected net profits for the company are estimated at 382 million, 539 million, and 713 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 35, 25, and 19 [5] Group 4: Electronics Industry - The company is a leader in video codec technology and is expanding into new fields such as automotive electronics and edge AI, with a comprehensive product plan for AI SoC series [6] - Expected revenues for the company are projected to be 2.49 billion, 3.07 billion, and 3.63 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits of 140 million, 230 million, and 310 million yuan, respectively [6] Group 5: Automotive Industry - The company reported a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, driven by growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales [8] - The company has maintained a competitive edge through continuous investment in technology and R&D, enhancing its production capabilities and expanding its product offerings [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3][17]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer in the optical chip industry, focusing on optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials. The optical chip business is becoming the core engine of the company, benefiting from the rapid development of AI and the growing demand for data centers [1][19]. - The upgrade of optical module speeds is opening up market space for AWG chips, with the company already achieving mass shipments of AWG components for 400G and 800G optical modules in 2024. The demand for AWG products is expected to grow as optical modules continue to evolve [1][16]. - The acquisition of a 53% stake in Dongguan Fokexima Communications Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and strengthen its position in the supply chain, further integrating the MPO business [2][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in optical communication, with its main business covering optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials. Key products include PLC splitters, AWG chips, DFB laser chips, and various types of optical cables [1][21]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with a strong and stable management team that has extensive experience in the optical communication industry [24]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve net profits of 382 million, 539 million, and 713 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 25, and 19 [3][17]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 42.4%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 236.6% [5][28]. Market Trends - The optical communication industry is evolving towards higher bandwidth, lower power consumption, and higher speed, with the company positioned to benefit from the growth in demand for AWG and MPO optical devices [3][15]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of AWG chips in high-speed optical modules and the necessity of MPO solutions in addressing complex wiring challenges in data centers [18][15]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong competitive position as one of the few domestic suppliers of AWG chips, having developed and mass-produced AWG chips for data centers since 2017 [16][15]. - Continuous investment in R&D and optimization of customer structure are key strategies for enhancing the company's competitiveness in the rapidly evolving optical communication market [17][32].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer in the optical chip industry, focusing on optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials, with its optical chip business becoming a core growth engine due to the rapid development of AI and increasing demand from data centers [1][19] - The upgrade of optical module speeds opens up market space for AWG chips, with the company already achieving mass shipments of AWG components for 400G and 800G optical modules in 2024, benefiting from the rapid iteration of optical modules [1][16] - The acquisition of a 53% stake in Dongguan Fokexima Communications Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and integrate the supply chain, further driving demand for MPO products due to the construction of high-density, high-speed data centers [2][16] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a strong focus on the optical communication industry, with its main business covering optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials, and has successfully achieved mass production of PLC splitters and AWG chips [19][21] - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with a strong and stable management team that has extensive experience in the optical communication field [24] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 382 million, 539 million, and 713 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 25, and 19 times [3][17] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.6% [5][28] Market Trends - The optical communication industry is evolving towards higher bandwidth, lower power consumption, and higher speed, with the company positioned to benefit from the significant market space for AWG and MPO optical devices [3][15] - The demand for MPO products is expected to grow due to the complexity of data center wiring and the implementation of CPO solutions [2][18] Competitive Advantages - The company has established a first-mover advantage in the AWG chip market, having developed and shipped AWG chips for data centers since 2017, and is well-positioned to capture market share as demand for AWG products increases [16][17] - Continuous investment in R&D and optimization of customer structure are key strategies for enhancing the company's competitive position in the industry [17][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 3.6 billion and a net profit of 430 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8% and 14% respectively. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to 870 million, while net profit decreased by 17% [1]. - The growth in revenue for Q1 2025 was driven by increased demand from major clients such as Tesla, Li Auto, NIO, and BYD, despite a decline in Tesla's global production [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its technological and research capabilities, particularly in mold development and stamping welding technology, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the automotive parts industry [2]. - The company is expanding its business layout by venturing into integrated die-casting, hot forming, and composite materials, with expectations for large-scale production to begin in the second half of 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 500 million, 580 million, and 670 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [3]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 4.1 billion in 2025 to 5.5 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15% and 16% [4]. - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 2.09, 2.42, and 2.80 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 模塑科技（000700.SZ） 2025Q1 扣非业绩同环比高增，盈利能力修复 事件：公司 2025Q1 实现营收 16 亿元，同/环比分别-11.65%/-15.27%； 归母净利润 1.5 亿元，同/环比分别+2.74%/+70.15%；扣非归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同/环比分别+45.09%/+145.62%。 2025Q1 扣非业绩同环比高增，盈利能力修复。行业层面，根据 Wind 数 据，2025Q1 国内乘用车销量环比-28%，公司部分核心客户华晨宝马环比 -27%，北京奔驰环比-17%，上汽通用环比-30%，特斯拉全球环比-32%。 公司收入环比增速好于行业，预计主要受益于新势力客户的销量带动。盈 利能力方面，公司 2025Q1 净利率 9.26%，预计主要受益于国内工厂的新 项目爬坡，带动产能利用率恢复。 毛利率修复，费用率环比略有提升。公司 2025Q1 单季度毛利率 20.9%， 同/环比+3.7/3.8 PCT，我们预计主要受益于国内以旧换新带动下游销量 修复，以及公司自身经营效率提升。期间费用率合计 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.6 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.65% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.27%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.74% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 70.15%. The non-recurring net profit was 140 million, with a year-on-year increase of 45.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 145.62% [1] - The company's performance in Q1 2025 indicates a recovery in profitability, benefiting from the sales boost from new energy vehicle clients, despite a general decline in domestic passenger car sales [1][2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8 percentage points, attributed to improved operational efficiency and the domestic vehicle replacement policy [2] - The company is actively expanding its client base in the new energy sector while maintaining its advantages with luxury car manufacturers, with new projects expected to generate significant sales [2] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 699 million, 795 million, and 898 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 8, and 7 times [2][3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 8.118 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8% [3] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.76, with a net asset return rate of 18.1% [3][7]