Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 73.23 HKD [3][7]. Core Insights - Xiaomi reported a record high performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 111.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and an adjusted profit of 10.68 billion, up 64.5% [1]. - The company has improved operational efficiency in its mobile and AIoT segments, with a mobile and AIoT gross margin of 22.8%, up 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The automotive segment is showing signs of growth, with a delivery volume of 76,000 units and an average selling price (ASP) of 238,000, contributing significantly to revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's revenue reached 1112.93 billion, a 47.4% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted profit of 106.75 billion, reflecting a 64.5% growth [1]. - The mobile segment's revenue was 506.12 billion, up 8.9%, with a notable ASP increase of 5.8% to 1210.6 [2]. - IoT revenue was 323.4 billion, a 58.7% increase, with a gross margin of 25.2%, up 4.7 percentage points [2]. Market Position - Xiaomi regained the top market share in mainland China with a 40% increase in mobile shipments, reaching 13.3 million units [2]. - The company is expanding its high-end product strategy, which has positively impacted internet service revenue, growing 12.8% to 9.1 billion [2]. Automotive Segment - The automotive division's revenue reached 185.8 billion, with a gross margin of 23.2%, indicating ongoing scale effects [3]. - The Yu7 model is expected to be a strong performer, with attention on its sales and production capacity in the upcoming months [3]. Long-term Strategy - Xiaomi's focus on ecosystem investments, AI capabilities, and operational efficiency is expected to drive future growth and valuation [6][7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 501.5 billion, 634.4 billion, and 733.2 billion respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% for the mobile and AIoT segments [7][9].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - In April, general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 4.1% and non-tax revenue declining by 4.3%[4] - Government fund revenue rose by 7.7% year-on-year, with land transfer income increasing by 3.9%[5] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.3% year-on-year, reflecting strong fiscal support for infrastructure projects[5] Group 2: Export Performance and Trade Impact - April export growth showed a slight decline, with large enterprises experiencing a significant drop in export delivery value growth from 7.7% in March to 0.9% in April[9] - The disparity in export performance suggests that larger enterprises are more adversely affected by tariffs, particularly in upstream industries[11] - The overall external demand remains strong, but structural shifts in export strategies are evident, with a move from "grabbing exports" to "grabbing trans-shipments"[9] Group 3: Market Trends and Interest Rates - The equity market has been volatile, with sectors like pharmaceuticals and automobiles performing well, while TMT sectors lagged[12] - Recent trends indicate a slight recovery in interbank funding rates, with short-term rates fluctuating at low levels and long-term rates rising slightly[16] - U.S. and Japanese government bond yields have risen significantly due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation expectations[22] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Geopolitical risks and unexpected policy changes remain key concerns for market stability[3] - The potential for U.S. tariff adjustments in mid-2025 could influence market dynamics and investor sentiment[13] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations may lead to cautious inventory accumulation among enterprises[11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - B" [6] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth is steady, with significant performance in water conservancy investments, indicating a positive outlook for overall infrastructure investment in 2025 [3][18] - The government is actively promoting major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan," with 99% of the planning targets achieved for over 5000 specific projects [1][16] - The issuance of local special bonds and other financing measures is accelerating, which is expected to enhance the implementation speed of ongoing projects and improve the financial indicators of construction companies [3][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with narrow and broad infrastructure investments growing by 5.80% and 10.85% respectively [2][16] - Water conservancy management investment growth leads all sectors at 30.7%, while public facilities management and railway transportation investments also show positive growth [2][17] Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a decline of 0.97% from May 19 to May 23, underperforming compared to major indices [19] - The top-performing sector within construction was landscaping, which increased by 4.14% during the same period [19] Company Announcements - Major contracts were announced, including a 35 billion yuan EPC contract by Dongzhu Ecology and a 4.51 billion yuan project by Xinjiang Jiaojian [31] Key Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include major construction state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, which are currently undervalued [3][11][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant advancements with Xiaomi's launch of its first self-developed 3nm flagship SoC, "Xuanjie O1," which integrates 19 billion transistors and achieves high performance metrics [18] - The NAND Flash market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to production cuts by major manufacturers, which is expected to improve revenue in the second quarter [9] - The overall electronic industry has shown a mixed performance, with a relative decline in the short term but a positive outlook for the long term [6][8] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - Xiaomi's "Xuanjie O1" is built on TSMC's 3nm process, featuring a 10-core CPU and a 16-core GPU, achieving AnTuTu scores exceeding 3 million, positioning it among the top performers in the industry [18] - The company has invested over 13.5 billion yuan in chip development since 2021, with plans for further investments to enhance its technological capabilities [18] NAND Flash Market - Major NAND manufacturers have reduced production by 10% to 15%, leading to a price rebound in Q2, with expectations of a 3% to 8% increase in contract prices [9] - The market dynamics are influenced by geopolitical factors, prompting companies to stock up on inventory [9] Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic sector's overall performance has been volatile, with a 2.17% decline in the electronic index during the week of May 19-23, 2025 [34] - The sector's PE ratio stands at 48.80, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [35][37] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, particularly for companies with strong domestic replacement capabilities and those involved in AI and consumer electronics [11]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 0.18%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.10%[1] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 1,173.3 billion CNY, showing a decrease compared to the previous week[1] Market Trends - The market has entered a low-volatility environment, with the 60-day volatility of the CSI 300 index dropping below 0.6%, indicating a potential for rapid volatility expansion[1] - Historical data suggests that a volatility threshold of 0.5% often precedes significant market movements, although there is no clear risk of a "double bottom" at this time[1] Economic Outlook - There is an optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, driven by various positive developments in technology and consumption sectors, suggesting a transition from old to new economic drivers[2] - The new consumption index in A-shares has risen by 18.74% this year, while the Hong Kong consumption index has increased by 24.31%[4] Sector Performance - The banking sector and micro-cap stocks have reached new highs, supported by quantitative forces, while the pricing is more influenced by market sentiment than by fundamental performance[3] - The technology sector, particularly the DeepSeek concept and humanoid robots, has seen significant gains of 32.95% and 24.49% respectively this year, contrasting with a decline of 1.56% in traditional economic indices[4] Investment Strategy - A barbell strategy is recommended, maintaining high-value assets as a core investment, especially in light of potential impacts from tariffs and external economic pressures[4] - The current market environment suggests a focus on long-term trends rather than short-term industry rotations, with an emphasis on sectors demonstrating clear growth potential[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform-A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that several newly included innovative drugs in the medical insurance directory are rapidly entering hospitals, with significant growth in hospital admissions for specific drugs compared to the end of December 2024 [2][20] - The report notes that the new drug market has seen substantial fluctuations, with the top five gainers and losers in the new drug sector during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025 [1][16] Summary by Sections New Drug Market Review - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: - Sanofi (99.96%) - Oconovision Biotech-B (43.66%) - Yiming Oncology-B (38.40%) - Chuangsheng Group-B (36.45%) - Canaan Jiangrui Pharmaceutical-B (34.03%) - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: - Junsheng Tai Pharmaceutical-B (-14.33%) - Mengke Pharmaceutical (-3.34%) - Dize Pharmaceutical (-2.88%) - Yunding Xinyao (-2.70%) - Dongyao Pharmaceutical-B (-2.66%) [1][16] Key Industry Analysis - The National Medical Insurance Administration updated the hospital admission data for innovative drugs included in the medical insurance directory as of the end of March 2025, showing rapid hospital entry for several newly included domestic innovative drugs [2][20] - Notable drugs with fast growth in hospital admissions include: - Yunding Xinyao's Budesonide Enteric-Coated Capsules - Zaiqian Pharmaceutical's Recombinant Human Thrombin - Innovent Biologics' Toripalimab - Haisco's Alogliptin and Clobazam - Xinlitai's Aliskiren Amlodipine and Benzyl Glimepiride - Hengrui Medicine's Otilonium Bromide - China National Pharmaceutical's Anakinra and Ivosidenib [2][20][21] New Drug Approval and Acceptance - This week, 10 new drugs or new indications received approval for market entry, including: - Pyrocyclic Tablets by Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology - Anlotinib Hydrochloride Capsules by Zhengda Tianqing - Injection of Camrelizumab by Shengdiya Biopharmaceutical - Injection of Bemarituzumab by Zhengda Tianqing - Injection of Vilazodone by Beihai Kangcheng - Injection of Acetylcysteine by Jingding Pharmaceutical - Ribociclib Succinate Tablets by Novartis - Asunaprevir Tablets by Novartis - Injection of Tenecteplase by Boehringer Ingelheim - Injection of Tanshinone by Novartis [3][24] Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance - This week, 10 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 43 new drug clinical applications were accepted [4][29]

2025 年 05 月 25 日 震荡偏弱，但下行风险或有限 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 杨勇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450518010002 yangyong1@essence.com.cn 相关报告 | 或仅是整理，蓄势以待机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 结构重于仓位，继续关注先 | 2025-05-11 | | 进制造 | | | 红五月可期，还看科技与先 | 2025-05-05 | | 进制造 | | | 美元阶段见底，科技有望崛 | 2025-04-27 | | 起 | | | 低位震荡，下行风险或有限 | 2025-04-20 | 本期要点：震荡偏弱，但下行风险或有限 上周五下午市场出现明显回落，显示市场在近期的震荡巩固过程中走 势偏弱。从周期分析模型的视角看，本轮自 4 月初以来的反弹或无已 经完全结束的充分证据；从模型当下给出的本轮调整的性质看，或有 望最多回到 4 月底 5 月初的震荡区间，随后再重新开始一波上行走 势，只有在那波上行趋势再次衰竭的时候才能判断本轮反弹是否真正 结束了。 从缠论的视角看，自去年四季度以来，大盘整体处于一个大的 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of AI as a central theme for technology investment over the next 3-5 years, suggesting that the semiconductor sector could mirror the automotive industry's growth potential [2][10] - The report identifies a significant shift in technology investment strategies, advocating for a flexible approach to adapt to market changes, particularly in the context of AI and semiconductor investments [2][10] - The report outlines a framework for technology investment, categorizing it into three parts: theoretical foundations and four stages of investment, the fate of leading companies, and the N-shaped pricing pattern [3][9][14] Group 2 - The N-shaped pricing pattern is highlighted as a critical concept in technology investment, characterized by significant volatility and requiring a high level of investor understanding [3][24] - The report discusses the historical performance of companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and CATL, illustrating the N-shaped price movements and the importance of timing in investment decisions [3][25][31] - The report proposes that successful technology investment hinges on understanding the internal dynamics of the industry and effectively timing the investment at the C point of the N-shaped curve [4][29][33] Group 3 - The report introduces a two-wave investment model, where the first wave represents the breakthrough phase (0 to 1) and the second wave signifies explosive growth (1 to 100), applicable to sectors like AI and new energy vehicles [4][42][49] - The three essential elements for technology growth are identified as leading companies, breakthrough products, and a clear industry chain, which together drive the first wave of investment [4][39][43] - The report outlines a four-stage investment process that includes the emergence of leading companies, infrastructure investment, formation of the industry chain, and addressing supply-demand gaps [4][45][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AGI is progressing towards a stage of autonomous action, focusing on two main directions: Agent and embodied intelligence. The technology has evolved past the "perception-thought" application threshold and is moving towards "autonomous action" [16][18]. - The rapid iteration of models since 2023 has significantly enhanced the capabilities of Agent products in perception, planning, and memory. Key advancements include the transition of models from single text to multimodal capabilities, improved reasoning abilities, and a substantial reduction in model usage costs [23][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Technology Layer: Significant Evolution of Models and Tools - AGI is moving towards autonomous action, indicating a shift towards Agent and embodied intelligence [16]. - The key technologies have evolved, with a focus on enhancing reliability and standardization [19]. - The current phase is characterized as a transition from workflow to Agent, analogous to the rule-driven phase of autonomous driving [3][50]. 2. Industry Chain: Early Commercialization Models - The report identifies three main lines of evolution in the industry chain: the open-source vs. closed-source model debate, the competition among tech giants for potential value points, and the entry of small and medium enterprises into the tool layer [56]. - The competition between open-source and closed-source models is crucial for the commercialization capabilities of major model vendors [56][58]. - Major tech companies are actively entering the AI Agent space, focusing on leading reasoning models and various tool integrations [61]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the evolution of AI technology will benefit infrastructure for computing power, particularly in training vertical long-tail models and inference computing [11]. - It emphasizes the importance of hardware support for local deployment of Agents on devices like smartphones and PCs, which may lead to a replacement cycle [11]. - The report also highlights the need for personalized solutions in private deployment services, indicating a gap in current offerings [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [8] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector experienced a significant seasonal decline in sales in April, with a month-on-month drop of approximately 40% in both sales area and sales amount compared to March [2] - Construction activities are still awaiting improvement, with new construction area down by 23.8% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continued supply contraction in the industry [3] - Investment pressure remains, with real estate development investment down by 10.3% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a slowdown in construction activities and overall economic drag from the real estate sector [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - From January to April 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 280 million square meters (YoY -2.8%), and the sales amount was 2.7 trillion yuan (YoY -3.2%) [2] - In April alone, the sales area was 60 million square meters (YoY -2.1%), and the sales amount was 60 billion yuan (YoY -6.7%) [2] Construction Activity - New construction area from January to April 2025 was 180 million square meters (YoY -23.8%), with completion area at 160 million square meters (YoY -16.9%) [3] - The construction area remained low, with a significant year-on-year decline in both new starts and completions in April [3] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment completed in the first four months of 2025 was 2.8 trillion yuan (YoY -10.3%), with residential investment at 2.1 trillion yuan (YoY -9.6%) [4] - The investment decline is attributed to reduced construction activity and a lagging real estate investment growth compared to fixed asset investment [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that may reverse their current difficulties, such as Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments [5]