公司发布 2025 年半年报：2025H1 公司实现营收 779.8 亿元，同比-14.2%， 归母净利润 76.4 亿元，同比-31.2%。其中 2025Q2 公司实现营收 378.2 亿元， 同比-20.5%，环比-5.8%，归母净利润 28.3 亿元，同比-54.6%、环比-41.0%。 二季度陕煤朱雀新材料产业 2 期单一资产管理清算退出，冲回递延所得税费 用对利润产生一定影响。 煤炭业务：自产煤产销量、成本保持相对稳定，煤价下行致毛利下滑；积极 推进资源接续工作，期待产能增长。2025H1 公司煤炭产/销量为 8740/12599 万吨，同比+1%/+1%；其中自产煤销量 8087 万吨，同比+1.4%。2025Q2 煤炭 产量为 4346 万吨，同环比-3%/-1%，自产煤销量 4132 万吨，同环比-2%/+4%。 2025H1 自产煤售价 420 元/吨，同比-118 元/吨；原选煤单位完全成本 280 元/吨，同比-1.39 元/吨，其中材料费增加 3.68 元/吨，维护及修理费增加 4.31 元/吨，薪酬减少 2.17 元/吨，相关税费减少 8.08 元/吨，其他支出减 少 2.87 元/ ...

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform" [5][6][13] Core Views - The industry is transitioning into a technological era with significant advancements in electrification, intelligence, and connectivity, leading to structural development opportunities [13][14] - The domestic automotive market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 2% over the next 20 years, with a strong focus on electric and intelligent vehicles [14][22] - The report emphasizes the rise of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electrification and intelligence [9][25] Monthly Production and Sales Data - In July 2025, automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [1] - From August 1 to 24, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles were 1.285 million units, a 3% increase year-on-year, while wholesale sales were 1.341 million units, a 12% increase year-on-year [1] Weekly Market Performance - For the week of August 25-31, 2025, the CS Automotive index rose by 0.28%, while the CS Passenger Vehicle index increased by 0.71% [2] - The CS Automotive sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points [2] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC Motors for strong new product cycles [3][5] - Intelligent component suppliers like KOBOT, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics [3][5] - Robotics companies such as Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [3][5] - Domestic replacement companies like Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and Jifeng [3][5] Industry Trends and Projections - The report highlights the expected growth in new energy vehicle sales, projecting over 1.55 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 25% [25][29] - The rise of domestic brands is supported by technological advancements and market strategies from companies like Huawei and Xiaomi [25][28] Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies' earnings forecasts indicate significant growth potential, with Leap Motor expected to achieve a notable increase in sales [5][31] - The report provides detailed earnings projections for various companies, emphasizing the strong performance of domestic brands [5][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is experiencing accelerated performance release, with a new technology cycle positioning it as a leading consumer battery enterprise. In H1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 117 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and revenue of 6.098 billion yuan, also up 14% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company's consumer battery sales are steadily growing, maintaining its industry-leading position. In H1 2025, the estimated sales volume of consumer batteries reached approximately 200 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 17% [2][15]. - The company is focusing on high-rate scenarios in its dynamic storage battery segment, with revenue from its subsidiary Zhejiang Guanyu reaching 973 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140% [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.098 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 117 million yuan, also up 15% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 3.599 billion yuan, a 29% year-on-year increase and a 44% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a net profit of 141 million yuan, marking a 53% year-on-year increase [1][9]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 24.65%, up 3.27 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin was 3.47%, up 5.73 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. Sales and Market Position - The company estimates that in H1 2025, consumer battery sales reached approximately 200 million units, with year-on-year growth rates of 7% for laptop batteries, 43% for mobile phone batteries, and 80% for other consumer batteries [2][15]. - The self-supply ratio of consumer battery cells reached 44.43%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points year-on-year [2][15]. Technological Advancements - The company is set to launch steel-shell battery products in H2 2025, which are expected to double in price compared to traditional soft-pack batteries, potentially driving revenue and profit growth [2][16]. - The company has established a solid-state lithium battery experimental line, providing a core platform for future technological breakthroughs [2][16]. Dynamic Storage Battery Segment - The dynamic storage battery segment is focusing on high-rate applications, with revenue from Zhejiang Guanyu reaching 973 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140% [3][17]. - The company has secured significant partnerships with major automotive manufacturers for low-voltage batteries and has seen over 200% year-on-year growth in drone battery revenue [3][17]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 610 million yuan, 1.401 billion yuan, and 1.808 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 130%, and 29% [4][19].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 三峡能源（600905.SH） 优于大市 利用小时数、电价下降影响利润，新能源项目建设稳步推进 2025Q2 营业收入小幅下降，扣非归母净利润降幅较大。2025 年上半年，公 司实现营业收入 147.36 亿元（-2.19%），归母净利润 38.15 亿元 （-5.48%），扣非归母净利润 32.00 亿元（-20.74%）。2025 年第二季 度，公司实现营业收入 71.07 亿元（-0.79%），归母净利润 13.68 亿元 （-15.41%），扣非归母净利润 11.16 亿元（-31.02%）。公司营业收入 和归母净利润下降的原因：（1）受电源分布和各地区消纳情况综合影 响，发电平均利用小时数同比下降；（2）上网电量结构变化和市场化 交易电量比重上升，综合平均电价同比有所下降；（3）随着并网项目 陆续投产，折旧及运营成本随在建工程转固同比增加。公司扣非归母净 利润下降幅度较大的原因：2025 年上半年，公司处置参控股水电公司股 权及相关债权，投资收益较同比增加 4.66 亿元，导致非经常性收益较 高。 新能源项目建设推进，装机容量持续增长。公司围绕"沙戈荒大基地 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][25][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.03 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.0%, and a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, up 27.6% year-on-year, driven by policies stimulating demand for electric two-wheelers [1][8] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 19.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 9.5%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability due to the old-for-new policy and alleviation of price wars [2][13] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and channels, including launching new product lines targeting women and technology, which is expected to enhance sales and market share [3][20] Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 2.623 billion yuan, 3.137 billion yuan, and 3.726 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 3.02 yuan, 3.61 yuan, and 4.29 yuan [4][25] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12, 10, and 9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][25] Product and Channel Development - The company plans to increase its terminal store count from 30,000 in 2023, aiming to enhance sales efficiency and reach more customers [21][23] - The electric three-wheeler segment is expected to become a new growth point, with sales projected to reach 550,000 units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [24][3]

美元债双周报（25 年第 35 周） 弱于大市 通胀韧性与就业转弱并存，美联储政策转向窗口开启 美国 7 月核心 PCE 通胀回升至 2.9%，但 9 月降息预期维持高位。美国 7 月 核心 PCE 物价指数同比升至 2.9%，符合市场预期，为年内新高，主要受 服务成本上涨推动，PCE 总体物价指数同比 2.6%，符合预期和前值；环 比 0.2%持平预期，较前值 0.3%有所回落。消费者支出创四个月最大增 幅，反映需求韧性。尽管商品价格下降，但投资组合管理费及娱乐服务 成本上升推高服务业通胀。收入方面，工资增长加快，实际可支配收入 增加，储蓄率稳定。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔讲话中为降息打开 窗口，但强调需关注通胀与就业数据。市场仍普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 开启降息，焦点将转向接下来更完整的 8 月通胀与非农就业数据。 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会释放偏鸽信号，强调就业市场疲软风险，暗示降息 可能。8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话释放出 明显鸽派信号，重点关注就业市场疲软带来的风险，并暗示美联储可能 于 9 月开启降息。他指出，当前劳动力市场呈现"供需双向显著放缓" 的异常平衡状态，7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has entered a new growth cycle after overcoming client transition pains from 2021 to 2023, with a complete adjustment of its client structure towards domestic brands and new energy clients [8][25]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.35%, and revenue of 36.63 billion yuan, up 10.85% year-on-year [8][25]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with new orders, new production capacity, and new products, including the establishment of production facilities in Serbia, Mexico, and the USA [3][47]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 19.64%, a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points, and a net margin of 10.49% [12][25]. - The company expects revenues of 160.0 billion yuan, 194.0 billion yuan, and 236.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.9 billion yuan, 21.1 billion yuan, and 26.4 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. Product and Market Development - The company is focusing on upgrading its automotive lighting products, with an average price increase of 25% in 2024, and aims to capture a 16% market share in domestic front lighting [2][3]. - The company has signed strategic cooperation agreements with several partners, including Huawei, to develop advanced automotive lighting solutions [40][41]. Client and Order Growth - In the first half of 2025, the company undertook 52 new model development projects, achieving mass production for 37 models, indicating strong order growth [47][49]. - The company has established relationships with major automotive manufacturers, including Volkswagen, Toyota, and NIO, enhancing its market position [50][51]. Global Expansion and Capacity - The company is enhancing its global presence with production facilities in Serbia and plans for further expansion in Mexico and the USA [3][55]. - A new smart automotive electronic and visual system production center is set to achieve an annual production capacity of approximately 10 million smart lamp assemblies [56][57].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 投资建议：维持 "优于大市"评级。近期 UCO 供需偏紧且价格高位运行， 但考虑订单执行有一定延后性，我们维持 2025 年盈利预测不变，上调 26-27 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 0.88/1.54/2.00 亿元（26-27 年 原值为 1.25/1.45 亿元），同比增速 576.1%/75.2%/29.3%，当前股价对应 PE=37/21/17x，维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,101 | 1,449 | 1,631 | 1,811 | 1,972 | | (+/-%) | 17.3% | -31.0% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 8.9% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 9 | 13 | 88 | 154 | 200 | | (+/-%) | -89.6% | 47.3% | 576.1% | 75.2% | 29.3% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianhong International Group is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 1.9% year-on-year to 11.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to lower product prices, but its profitability continued to improve with a net profit increase of 55.2% to 420 million yuan [1][3]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.0 percentage point to 14.2%, attributed to enhanced operational efficiency and flexible raw material procurement strategies [1][20]. - The company is a leading global cotton yarn producer, and its debt structure has been optimized due to reduced bank borrowings, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio decrease of 2.6 percentage points to 51.4% [1][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the yarn sales volume increased by 3.6% to 385,000 tons, while yarn revenue decreased by 2.2% to 8.62 billion yuan due to price declines [2]. - The gross margin for yarn improved by 1.4 percentage points to 13.9% due to increased order volume and capacity utilization [2]. - The woven fabric business saw a significant growth of 17.0% in sales volume to 51 million meters, driven by inventory replenishment ahead of tariff changes [2]. - The knitted fabric segment faced challenges, with sales volume dropping by 33.5% to 3,840 tons and revenue declining by 37.8% to 186 million yuan [2]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 720 million, 770 million, and 970 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3%, 6.9%, and 25.5% [3][21]. - The target price has been raised to 5.1-5.9 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 6-7x for 2025 [3][20]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 13.1% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 3.1% [18][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The management plans to sell 400,000 tons of yarn, 50 million meters of woven fabric, and 3,000 tons of knitted fabric in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company benefits from a local supply chain and quick response capabilities, positioning it well for future market leadership [20].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 华熙生物（688363.SH） 优于大市 二季度利润端重回增长，积极变革调整效果初现 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 美容护理·医疗美容 | 证券分析师：张峻豪 | 证券分析师：柳旭 | | --- | --- | | 021-60933168 | 0755-81981311 | | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 单二季度营收降幅收窄，利润实现增长。公司 2025 上半年实现营收 22.61 亿元，同比-19.57%，归母净利润 2.21 亿元，同比-35.38%，实现扣非归母 净利润 1.74 亿元，同比-45%。非经常性损益主要政府补助 4786.8 万元等。 单二季度看，营收同比-18.44%至 11.83 亿元，降幅较一季度收窄 2.33pct， 归母净利润同比+20.89%至 1.19 亿元，扣非归母净利润同比+8.75%至 0.92 亿元，较一季度下滑 65%的数据实现显著好转。公司收入端在核心功能护肤 业务调整期仍有所承压，但二季度利润实现正增长，反映组织管理调整及业 务提效优化等措施已逐步见 ...