证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 2025 年 7 月 11 日，财政部发布《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考 核的通知》（以下简称"《通知》"），调整国有商业保险公司绩效评价指标，新增五年周期考核权重，推动 险资长期入市。 国信非银观点：《通知》通过将 70%考核权重锚定三年以上周期，有望从根源上化解保险资金属性与考核 错配的矛盾，持续释放险资增量资金潜力。结合偿付能力优化、风险因子调降等配套措施，险资有望持续 加大资金入市规模。短期看，险资入市为市场注入流动性活水；长期看，其"耐心资本"属性将持续推动 以红利资产为代表的配置诉求，建议关注本次政策下相对受益的中国人寿、中国平安、中国太保、中国财 险、新华保险。 评论： 政策核心：长周期考核权重提升至 70%，制度设计直击险资入市堵点 7 月 11 日，财政部正式印发《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核 的通知》（财金〔2025〕62 号），标志着保险资金长周期考核机制全面落地。该政策将国有商业保险公司核 心绩效指标"净资产收益率"（ROE）和"（国有）资本保值增值率"的考核方式，由此前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global AI computing load is expected to grow significantly, with new AI computing loads projected at 9.7/15.9/20.2/22.3/23.4/24.6 GW from 2025 to 2030. This translates to a demand for AIDC power equipment of 29/48/60/67/70/74 GW, with an average annual growth rate of 20% [5][13] - The market potential for dry-type transformers, medium and low voltage switchgear, UPS, HVDC, and solid-state transformers is estimated to reach 85/341/41/380/239 billion yuan by 2030 [5][12] - The domestic data center industry is expected to see increased capital expenditure from major cloud providers, with 2025 anticipated to be a pivotal year for AIDC construction [5][18] Summary by Sections AIDC Power Equipment - The AIDC power equipment sector has shown a diverse range of products, with major global players like Vertiv, Eaton, and Schneider Electric having established strong product lines and solutions [5] - Domestic companies are gaining competitive advantages in various segments, with leading firms gradually building their solution-providing capabilities [5] - The recent performance of the AIDC power equipment sector has been mixed, with notable declines in backup diesel power sources and lead-acid batteries [5][24] Grid Industry - The grid sector has seen significant investment growth, with national grid engineering investment reaching 632 billion yuan in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [31][32] - The bidding results for high-voltage equipment have shown a strong performance, with a total bid amount of 211.89 billion yuan in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.1% [64] - The grid industry is expected to benefit from the maturation of new business models such as electricity trading and virtual power plants, with a focus on high-voltage orders and deliveries in the second half of 2025 [5][58]

电力设备新能源 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn S0980523050002 2025年07月13日 证券研究报告 | 风电产业链周度跟踪（7月第2周） 行业研究 · 行业周报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 【板块行情】 • 近两周风电板块普遍上涨，涨幅前三板块为叶片（+15.9%）、海缆（+2.6%）和整机（+0.7%）。个股方面，近两周涨幅前三分别为中材科技（+34.8%）、新强联（+11.7%）和大金重工 （+6.1%）。 【行业观点】 • 海风方面，25年上半年江苏、广东重大项目陆续迎来开工。二季度进入交付旺季；25年是国管海风开发元年，预计规划、竞配、招标、政策下半年有望落地。"十五五"期间年均海风装机 有望超20GW，远超"十四五"水平。陆风方面，25年行业装机有望达100GW创历史新高，年初以来零部件企业迎来量价齐增，全年业绩有望大幅增长；上半年主机企业国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the China Securities REITs Index closed down. The performance of property - type REITs was weaker than that of franchise - type REITs, with average weekly price changes of - 1.8% and - 0.9% respectively. Among all types of REITs in the market, ecological and environmental protection, warehousing, and energy - type REITs had the smallest declines [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. The dividend yield of property REITs was 70BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return (IRR) of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 186BP [1]. - Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT disclosed a secondary expansion plan, and Harvest JD Logistics REIT announced an expansion plan, gradually reflecting the "asset listing platform" function of public REITs [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends Secondary Market Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 876.64 points, with a weekly change of - 0.96%, performing worse than the CSI Convertible Bond Index (+0.76%), the CSI 300 Index (+0.82%), and the CSI All - Bond Index (-0.05%). Since the beginning of the year, the ranking of the price changes of major indices was: China Securities REITs (+11.0%) > CSI Convertible Bonds (+8.8%) > CSI 300 (+2.0%) > CSI All - Bond (+1.3%) [2][8]. - As of July 11, 2025, the one - year return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was 12.0%, with a volatility of 7.0%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI All - Bond Index. The volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI All - Bond Index. The total market value of REITs decreased to 205.2 billion yuan on July 11, a decrease of 2.7 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.60%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week [2][14]. - All types of REITs closed down. From the perspective of different project attributes, the average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 1.8% and - 0.9% respectively. From the perspective of different project types, the three project types with the smallest average declines were ecological and environmental protection (-0.4%), warehousing and logistics (-0.5%), and energy infrastructure (-0.5%). The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increases were Harvest JD Logistics REIT (+4.25%), CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT (+1.01%), and Southern SF Logistics REIT (+0.79%) [1][3][18]. - In terms of trading activity, ecological and environmental protection - type REITs were the most active this week, and transportation - type REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume. The former had an average daily turnover rate of 1.2% during the period, and its trading volume accounted for 4.2% of the total REITs trading volume. The latter had an average daily turnover rate of 0.6% during the period, and its trading volume accounted for 23.4% of the total REITs trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT (24.65 million yuan), Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT (14.98 million yuan), and CITIC Construction Investment SPIC New Energy REIT (10.45 million yuan) [4]. Primary Market Issuance - As of July 11, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the declared stage, 2 in the accepted stage, 7 in the feedback stage, 7 passed and waiting to be listed, and 5 first - issued products that had passed and were already listed on the exchange [26]. Valuation Tracking - From the perspective of bond characteristics, as of July 11, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets [28]. - From the perspective of equity characteristics, the valuation of REITs was judged through relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO. Different project types had different relative net value premium rates, P/FFO, IRR, and annualized dividend rates [28][29]. Industry News - On July 4, Wuxi Xishan Huaneng Group issued a tender announcement for the selection of a fund manager for infrastructure public REITs, with a contract estimated price of 2.54 million yuan, officially launching the process of green and low - carbon asset securitization [35]. - On July 8, Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT disclosed a secondary expansion plan, planning to acquire three community - type shopping centers, with a total construction area of approximately 300,000 square meters [35]. - On July 8, Harvest JD Logistics REIT announced an expansion plan, planning to raise funds through targeted or public means to acquire two projects, with a total construction area of approximately 253,000 square meters [35]. - On July 10, Lijiang Tourism Development Investment Group Co., Ltd. announced the winning bids for the selection of a financial advisor for the original equity holder and the selection of a fund manager and plan manager for a cultural and tourism infrastructure public REITs project. The project planned to use Yulong Snow Mountain as the underlying asset, with a planned issuance scale of no less than 2.5 billion yuan [35].

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 下半年市场增量资金哪里来？ 优于大市 存款搬家驱动哑铃型资金结构再调整 保险资金持续入市，国家队托底，而场内资金依靠小市值个股交易套利，导 致上半年资本市场呈现极致哑铃型资金结构。以市值因子观测，今年微盘股 收益最佳、小盘股次之、大盘股再次之。微盘股、小盘股年初以来持续领涨。 关税冲击后，大盘股表现出追赶效应。以"市值+风格"因子观测，大盘价 值、小盘成长、小盘价值取得明显超额，大盘成长及中盘股则表现较差。2025 年以来，市场增量资金包括：（1）中央汇金为代表的类平准基金，主要为 市场起托底作用；（2）保险公司为代表的金融机构，对股息稳定、大盘价 值风格较偏好，对红利因子持续加大投资；（3）中性策略的量化私募、部 分个人投资者两融资金，对波动率较高的小微盘股偏好度较高。 存款利率持续下行，下一步居民存款搬家将驱动增量资金入市，资金结构更 多元。（1）中央汇金和保险等资金，代表市场稳定器，持股风格整体稳定； 下一步保险负债成本下行，分红产品占比增加，为实现行业均衡，关注险资 红利资产"扩圈"带来的配置机会；（2）存款和纯固收产品持续低回报， 这成为催化居民加大权益资产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [4] Core Views - The global computing power continues to show high prosperity, driven by the launch of xAI's Grok4 model and strong performance forecasts from computing power infrastructure companies [1][2] - AI inference demand is rapidly increasing, with market size expectations likely to be revised upwards, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the computing power industry [17][18] - The performance forecasts for various companies in the computing power supply chain indicate sustained high growth, particularly in optical modules and copper connection sectors [34][49][51] Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - xAI launched the Grok4 model, which supports more complex interactions and has a subscription fee of $30/month, surpassing OpenAI's highest fee [1][12] - Broadcom's management indicated that AI inference demand has significantly increased, exceeding current capacity, and this demand was not included in previous market size forecasts of $60-90 billion [1][17] - Mellanox announced the availability of the Quantum-X switch, which features a bandwidth of 115.2 tb/s and is expected to drive orders for related components [1][19][20] Performance Forecasts - Companies such as Ruijie Networks and Huagong Technology forecast substantial profit increases, with Ruijie expecting a net profit of 400-510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.11%-231.64% [2][34] - Taiwan's AI server ODM manufacturers reported a total monthly revenue of 100.26 billion NTD in June, a 35% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand in the AI infrastructure market [2][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various segments of the AI computing power infrastructure, including optical devices and copper connection industries, as well as domestic computing power companies benefiting from increased investments [3][80] - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is suggested due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts, with a cumulative revenue of 748.8 billion yuan in the first five months of the year, a 1.4% year-on-year increase [3][80]

2025年7月13日 证券研究报告 | ESG热点周聚焦（7月第2期） 创业板综指引入ESG负向剔除机制 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 海外ESG热点事件：在绿色金融、碳中和、企业治理与环境保护四条主线上，政策、市场、技术协同发力，助力全球能源结构转型与气候应对。绿色 金融方面，沃旭能源完成中国台湾大彰化海上风电27.5亿美元项目融资，获25家银行及5家出口信贷机构支持；加州社区选择融资局即将发行10亿美 元30年期绿色债券，用于圣地亚哥社区电力清洁能源供应；英国与日本住友商事达成75亿英镑（约100亿美元）清洁能源投资协议，重点投向海上风 电与氢能；欧盟委员会发布非正式指南，为港口电动集装箱设备联合采购提供竞争法合规路径，加速柴油设备替换。碳中和与减排方面，Mic ...

Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to outperform the market, with a focus on high-quality leading companies and structural growth opportunities [15][5][24] - The industry is undergoing a transformation driven by domestic upgrades, self-sufficiency, and accelerated overseas development [15][20] Industry Overview and Outlook - The core equipment localization is fundamental for the rise of the industry, breaking through bottlenecks in high-end equipment is essential for true autonomy and industrialization [15] - The trend of industrial upgrading is inevitable, with advancements in digitalization and energy transformation enhancing social efficiency and reducing costs [15] - The development of exports is transitioning from point to surface, with competitive manufacturing enterprises moving from import substitution to export substitution [15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on emerging growth sectors and export-driven leading companies, particularly in areas such as humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and coal chemical equipment [25][26] - Key recommended stocks include Huace Testing, Guodian Measurement, and Yizhiming, among others [24][2] Key Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment, including: - Humanoid Robots: Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, and Zhenyu Technology [26] - AI Infrastructure: Yingliu Technology and Haomai Technology [28] - Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic, XCMG, and Sany Heavy Industry [29] - Nuclear Power Equipment: Jiadian Co., Zhongmi Holdings, and Jiangsu Shentong [29] - General Equipment: Huichuan Technology, Green Harmonic, and Baichu Electronics [29] Performance Tracking - In June, the mechanical industry index rose by 2.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32 percentage points, with stable valuation levels [6][11] - The manufacturing PMI index for June was reported at 49.70%, indicating a slight improvement [6][12] Financial Projections - The report provides forecasts for key companies, indicating resilience in operations, with expected revenue and profit growth across various sectors [31] - For example, Hengli Hydraulic is projected to achieve a revenue of 27.68 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 7.96 billion yuan [31]

Core Insights - The key to understanding the capital cycle is recognizing how changes in capital allocation within an industry affect future returns, emphasizing the importance of supply-side changes over demand analysis [3] - Industry concentration exhibits an inverted U-shaped distribution throughout different stages of the corporate lifecycle, transitioning from high competition to oligopoly, with dividend yields increasing as companies evolve from recovery to maturity [3] - Current recommended secondary industries include aquaculture, animal health, components, consumer electronics, communication services, advertising, television broadcasting, real estate services, shipping ports, logistics, and railroads [3] Section Summaries 01 Capital Cycle: Supply and Concentration Considerations - The capital cycle framework prioritizes supply and concentration changes over economic conditions, indicating that supply fluctuations drive industry profitability [4] 02 Historical Positioning of Capital Cycles in Sub-Industries - The report categorizes 124 sub-industries based on their capital cycle status from Q3 2008 to Q1 2025, using concentration, profit growth, and capital expenditure growth as key indicators [27] 03 Current Capital Cycle Stages of Various Industries - The analysis identifies industries in optimal or suboptimal capital cycle phases, allowing for targeted investment recommendations [39] 04 Capital Cycle Principles and Case Studies in the US and Japan - The report discusses the principles of capital cycles in the US and Japan, providing case studies that illustrate the application of these principles across different market environments [4] 05 Viewing Capital Cycles Through the Lens of "Anti-Overwork" - The report suggests that the current economic environment, characterized by a push against overwork, influences capital allocation and industry dynamics [4]

Group 1: High-tech Manufacturing Index - The Guosen weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index A recorded 0.2, while index B was at 51.0, indicating a slight recovery compared to the previous period[1] - The price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) increased to $1.4490, up by $0.031 from last week[3] - The price of 6-amino penicillanic acid rose to 230 RMB/kg, an increase of 50 RMB/kg from the previous week[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth was reported at 3.70%[2] - The total retail sales year-on-year growth for the month was 6.40%[2] - The month-on-month export growth was 4.80%[2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased to 50,500 RMB/ton, down by 1,200 RMB/ton from last week, indicating a decline in the new energy sector's prosperity[3] - The price of acrylonitrile remained stable at 8,200 RMB/ton, showing no change from the previous week[3] - The price index for electronic products in Zhongguancun remained unchanged, indicating stable conditions in the aerospace and computer industries[1] Group 4: Policy and Development - A new action plan for measuring support for industrial productivity development from 2025 to 2030 was issued, focusing on ten key industries including AI and aerospace[4] - The launch of the WebSailor intelligent agent by Alibaba Tongyi demonstrates advancements in AI capabilities, surpassing several closed-source models[4]