证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 投资建议：维持 "优于大市"评级。近期 UCO 供需偏紧且价格高位运行， 但考虑订单执行有一定延后性，我们维持 2025 年盈利预测不变，上调 26-27 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 0.88/1.54/2.00 亿元（26-27 年 原值为 1.25/1.45 亿元），同比增速 576.1%/75.2%/29.3%，当前股价对应 PE=37/21/17x，维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,101 | 1,449 | 1,631 | 1,811 | 1,972 | | (+/-%) | 17.3% | -31.0% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 8.9% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 9 | 13 | 88 | 154 | 200 | | (+/-%) | -89.6% | 47.3% | 576.1% | 75.2% | 29.3% ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 天虹国际集团（02678.HK） 优于大市 上半年收入微降 2%，盈利持续改善 2025 上半年收入微降 2%，盈利能力持续改善，债务结构持续优化。公司是 全球棉纱龙头生产商。2025 上半年公司收入同比-1.9%至 110.3 亿元，主要 受纱线等产品单价降低拖累；归母净利润同比+55.2%至 4.2 亿元，盈利能力 提升明显。毛利率同比+1.0 百分点至 14.2%，主要得益于营运效率和产能利 用率的持续提升，以及灵活的原材料采购策略；销售/管理费用率基本保持 平稳，分别同比变动 0/+0.2 百分点至 2.8%/5.5%；财务费用率同比-1.0 百 分点至 1.3%，主要受益于汇兑收益以及贷款的减少；归母净利率同比+1.4 百分点至 3.8%。资产负债率同比-2.6 百分点至 51.4%，债务结构由于银行借 贷的减少持续优化。存货金额同比+5.9%至 53.69 亿元，主要因 6 月份的关 税不确定性导致滞销，存货周转天数同比-2 天至 99 天。资本支出同比+17.2% 至 3.4 亿元，主要与海内外工厂设备更新改造与越南厂房建设有关。 上半年纱线主业表现稳定 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 华熙生物（688363.SH） 优于大市 二季度利润端重回增长，积极变革调整效果初现 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 美容护理·医疗美容 | 证券分析师：张峻豪 | 证券分析师：柳旭 | | --- | --- | | 021-60933168 | 0755-81981311 | | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 单二季度营收降幅收窄，利润实现增长。公司 2025 上半年实现营收 22.61 亿元，同比-19.57%，归母净利润 2.21 亿元，同比-35.38%，实现扣非归母 净利润 1.74 亿元，同比-45%。非经常性损益主要政府补助 4786.8 万元等。 单二季度看，营收同比-18.44%至 11.83 亿元，降幅较一季度收窄 2.33pct， 归母净利润同比+20.89%至 1.19 亿元，扣非归母净利润同比+8.75%至 0.92 亿元，较一季度下滑 65%的数据实现显著好转。公司收入端在核心功能护肤 业务调整期仍有所承压，但二季度利润实现正增长，反映组织管理调整及业 务提效优化等措施已逐步见 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 835 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.57%, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.86% [1][8]. - The company is actively expanding into new product areas, particularly in low-altitude and humanoid robotics, with significant growth in its precision component business and strong performance in the new energy and wind power sectors [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 28.84%, and net margin was 9.10%, showing slight declines of 1.72 and 0.60 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The company’s precision component business generated revenue of 340 million yuan, up 41.67% year-on-year, while the revenue from bearing retainers and accessories reached 427 million yuan, growing by 43.86% [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 161 million yuan, 236 million yuan, and 302 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 37, 25, and 20 times [3][4]. Product Development - The company is focusing on developing new products such as electric motor rotors for low-altitude flying vehicles and humanoid robots, currently in the sample verification stage [2]. - The revenue from the new energy electric drive rotor series products surged by 330.98% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [2]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a champion in the bearing retainer manufacturing industry, with a stable growth trajectory in its core business [3]. - The company’s self-developed eVTOL motor assembly has passed customer testing, positioning it well to benefit from trends in humanoid robot mass production and the low-altitude economy [3].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Broker Gold Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to optimize the selection of stocks from the broker gold stock pool to outperform the median of active equity funds[39][43]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the broker gold stock pool as the stock selection space and constraint benchmark. - It employs portfolio optimization to control deviations in individual stocks and styles from the broker gold stock pool. - The industry distribution of all public funds is used as the industry allocation benchmark. - The model's detailed construction method can be found in the report "Broker Gold Stock Full Analysis - Data, Modeling, and Practice" published on February 18, 2022[39][43]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance historically, consistently outperforming the active equity fund index from 2018 to 2022, ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[12][39]. Model Backtesting Results Broker Gold Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Absolute Return (Monthly)**: 15.49%[5][42] - **Excess Return Relative to Active Equity Fund Index (Monthly)**: 3.59%[5][42] - **Absolute Return (Year-to-Date)**: 34.01%[5][42] - **Excess Return Relative to Active Equity Fund Index (Year-to-Date)**: 5.72%[5][42] - **Ranking in Active Equity Funds (Year-to-Date)**: 30.38% percentile (1054/3469)[5][42] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Single Quarter Net Profit Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the growth rate of net profit in a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net profit for the current quarter. - Compare it to the net profit of the same quarter in the previous year. - The formula is: $ \text{Net Profit Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Name: Single Quarter ROE - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the return on equity for a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net income for the quarter. - Divide it by the average shareholders' equity for the quarter. - The formula is: $ \text{ROE} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Average Shareholders' Equity}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Name: Single Quarter Revenue Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the growth rate of revenue in a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the revenue for the current quarter. - Compare it to the revenue of the same quarter in the previous year. - The formula is: $ \text{Revenue Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Revenue} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Revenue}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Revenue}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Backtesting Results Single Quarter Net Profit Growth Rate - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28]. Single Quarter ROE - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28]. Single Quarter Revenue Growth Rate - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 科博达（603786.SH） 优于大市 单二季度净利润同比增长 61%，在手订单充沛 得益于新产品、新客户项目量产，科博达营收同比高增长。公司 2025H1 实 现营收 30.47 亿元，同比增长 11.1%，实现归母净利润 4.51 亿元，同比 增长 21.3%。拆单季度看，公司 2025Q2 实现营收 16.73 亿元，同比增长 26.2%，环比增长 21.7%，归母净利润 2.45 亿元，同比增长 60.7%，环 比增长 19.0%。分产品看，2025Q2 照明控制系统营收 8.9 亿元，同比增 长 38%，环比增长 38%，电机控制系统营收 2.5 亿元，同比增长 20%，环 比增长 1%，车载电器与电子营收 2.3 亿元，同比增长 14%，环比增长 4%， 能源管理系统营收 2.2 亿元，同比增长 31%，环比增长 39%。 费用率下降，公司 2025Q2 毛利率环比提升。2025Q2 公司毛利率 27.2%，同 比+1.1pct，环比+0.2pct，净利率 15.1%，同比+2.8pct，环比-0.8pct。 2025Q2 公司四费率 10.0%，同比-4 ...

摘要 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 反内卷不仅仅是去产能 ——如何理解反内卷的经济逻辑 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 本文从宏观经济会计恒等式出发，系统分析了投资与消费之间的内在张力及其对经济增长的影 响。资本收入集中于少数高收入群体，边际消费倾向低，是投资的主要来源；而非资本收入人 群消费倾向高，构成消费需求主力。两者比例的失衡导致中国资本产出比（K/GDP）持续上升、 资本回报率（r）不断下降，逼近"效率悬崖" ，投资驱动型增长已难以为继。 • 实证数据表明，中国投资效率下降主要源于消费未能同步跟上供给扩张，尤其是服务消费需求 偏弱与服务业投资过剩的结构性错 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][5][22]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 40.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.66% to 5.666 billion yuan [1][6]. - The company plans to distribute a semi-annual cash dividend of 0.02 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 7.27% [2][20]. - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance due to a decrease in its stake in China Nuclear Huineng and a decline in its profits [1][3][22]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative power generation was 121.776 billion kWh, an increase of 15.65% year-on-year, while the cumulative grid-connected power was 115.104 billion kWh, up 15.92% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company's operating revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.11% [1][6]. - The net profit for the second quarter was 2.529 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.40% year-on-year and 19.37% quarter-on-quarter [1][6]. Operational Capacity - As of June 30, the company had 26 operational nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 25 million kW, and 19 units under construction or awaiting approval with a capacity of 21.859 million kW [2][19]. - The company has increased its operational renewable energy capacity by 3.6287 million kW in the first half of 2025, including 762,900 kW from wind power and 2,865,800 kW from solar power [2][19]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 9.59 billion, 10 billion, and 11.15 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 4%, and 11% [3][22]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 19 for 2025, 19 for 2026, and 17 for 2027 [5][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][25] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly decreased in the first half of 2025, with a significant decline in net profit due to factors such as reduced average utilization hours and a decrease in average electricity prices [1][8] - The company is actively advancing its renewable energy projects, focusing on land-based wind and solar power, and has seen a continuous increase in installed capacity [2][24] - Profit forecasts for the company remain stable, with expected net profits of 6.74 billion, 7.23 billion, and 7.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 10.2%, 7.4%, and 7.1% [3][25] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.736 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.19%, and a net profit of 3.815 billion yuan, down 5.48%. The non-recurring net profit fell by 20.74% to 3.200 billion yuan [1][8] - The average utilization hours for wind and solar power decreased, impacting overall performance, with wind power utilization down by 97 hours and solar power by 96 hours year-on-year [13][17] Project Development - The company added 2.1807 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in the first half of 2025, with 538,100 kilowatts from wind power and 1,642,600 kilowatts from solar power [2][24] - As of June 2025, the total operational installed capacity reached 49.9366 million kilowatts, with plans for an additional 26.9649 million kilowatts in new projects [24] Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 6.736 billion yuan in 2025, 7.232 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.744 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.24, 0.25, and 0.27 yuan [3][25] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.1, 16.8, and 15.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][25]

上半年收入下滑 16.6%，利润承压明显。2025 年上半年，在消费环境整 体疲软背景下，公司收入同比下降 16.6%至 10.91 亿元，负向经营杠杆 下利润承压，归母净利润同比下滑 51.3%至 1.06 亿元。毛利率同比减少 1.4 百分点至 53.6%，主要受库存清理影响；销售费用率同比上升 7.3 百分点至 36.1%，主要受平台扣点费用增加，促销活动模式调整及营销 活动影响；研发费用率同比-1.0 百分点，其他费用率相对稳定；信用减 值损益占收入比例较去年同期改善 1.2 百分点，主要因应收账款坏账损 失的转回。主要受销售费用率提升影响，归母净利率同比下滑 6.9 百分 点至 9.7%。营运效率方面，存货/应收周转天数分别同比增加 39/24 天， 存货周转延长预计主要因积极帮助加盟商退换货，促进提货；经营活动 现金流净额同比大幅改善 210.8%至 2.9亿元，预计主因原材料备货充足、 采购商品现金支出减少。 第二季度收入降幅收窄，利润压力延续。第二季度公司收入同比下降 15.3%至 5.55 亿元（Q1：-17.8%），归母净利润降幅收窄至 47.7%（Q1： -54.1%）。单季毛利率同比下 ...