- The report discusses the market performance on December 22, 2025, highlighting that most indices were in an upward trend, with the CSI 500 Index performing particularly well among scale indices, and the ChiNext Index performing well among sector indices[2][7] - The market sentiment was high, with 104 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 8 stocks hitting the daily limit down at the close of trading[2][14] - The financing balance as of December 19, 2025, was 24,871 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 167 billion yuan, with the total margin balance accounting for 2.6% of the market's circulating market value[2][20][23] - The report also provides data on ETF premiums and discounts, noting that the Sci-Tech Growth ETF from Southern Fund had the highest premium at 1.49%, while the Creation 50 ETF from ICBC had the highest discount at 0.51% on December 19, 2025[3][24][26] - The report includes information on block trading, indicating that the average daily transaction amount of block trades in the past six months was 2.1 billion yuan, with a discount rate of 5.21% on December 19, 2025[3][27][29] - The annualized discount rates for the main contracts of stock index futures for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 0.27%, 4.53%, 8.15%, and 12.34%, respectively, on December 22, 2025[3][29][32] - The report lists the top stocks in terms of net inflow and outflow from institutional seats and Northbound funds, with Sannong Seed Industry, Snowman Group, and Aisen Co., Ltd. among the top net inflow stocks[4][37][38]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 金融工程日报 沪指四连阳重上 3900 点，海南自贸港概念持续发酵 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251222 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 500 指数 表现较好，板块指数中创业板指表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指数表 现较好。通信、有色金属、电子、消费者服务、综合金融行业表现较好，传 媒、银行、纺织服装、轻工制造、电力公用事业行业表现较差。海南自贸港、 海航系、钨矿、半导体设备、光通信等概念表现较好，SPD、降落伞、家纺、 银行精选、胶原蛋白等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251222 市场情绪较为高涨，收盘时有 104 只股票涨停，有 8 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 2.28%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘 收益为 1.06%。今日封板率 71%，较前日下降 2%，连板率 25%，较前日 下降 2%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251219 两融余额为 25038 亿元，其中融资余额 24871 亿元，融券余额 167 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 10.1%。 折溢价：20251219 当日 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long-term contracts has been set to zero for 2026, down from $21.25 per ton in 2025, indicating a significant shift in the copper smelting industry dynamics [3][4]. - The reduction to zero processing fees is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand between copper mines and smelting, as well as historically high levels of by-product and recovery rate revenues [3][8]. - The competitive advantage of Chinese copper smelting plants is highlighted by their leading technology and cost control, which is expected to improve the industry landscape as capacity control measures are likely to be implemented [21]. Summary by Sections Processing Fees and Market Dynamics - The processing fee for copper concentrate long-term contracts has dropped to $0 per ton for 2026, compared to $21.25 per ton in 2025, reflecting a challenging negotiation environment this year [3][4]. - The long-term contract processing fee is crucial for smelting profitability, with many large smelting plants seeing a decline in the proportion of long-term contracts due to tight copper concentrate supply [6][8]. Recovery Rates and By-Product Revenues - The recovery rate for copper smelting in China is significantly higher than the industry standard, leading to additional revenue from copper prices [8][9]. - Sulfuric acid by-product revenues have surged, with current prices nearing historical highs, contributing to the overall profitability of smelting operations [8][9]. Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The zero processing fee scenario is expected to prompt regulatory measures to control copper smelting capacity, potentially leading to a more favorable industry structure [13][21]. - Key companies in the copper smelting sector include Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper, which are well-positioned to benefit from these industry changes [21][16][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly warming up throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][11][4]. - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. On one hand, the economic stabilization since the fourth quarter of last year mainly comes from the support of central government leveraging. Considering that there is no additional issuance of Treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of this year, it is expected that the financing growth rate of government bonds will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and the domestic economy will still be under pressure. On the other hand, the absolute level of interest rates is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and investors' sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data, the domestic bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly warmed up, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][11][4] Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury bonds**: As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a relatively low historical level. The economic downward pressure in November continued to increase, with the estimated GDP growth rate in October at about 4.1%, a decline of 0.1% from October. The deflation risk has been alleviated. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently [2][12] - **20 - year CDB bonds**: As of December 19, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at an extremely low historical position. Similar to the situation of 30 - year Treasury bonds, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13] Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 243,416 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion [14] Primary Market - Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), with a total issuance of 207 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume decreased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19] Primary Market - This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 12 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25] Secondary Market - Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week, with a trading volume of 12,302 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bonds increased, while that of ultra - long local bonds decreased [27] Secondary Market - Yield - After the release of November economic data, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly warmed up, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The yields of different - term Treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to varying degrees [38] Secondary Market - Spread Analysis - **Term spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48] - **Variety spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP compared with the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased slightly [55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11][38]. - As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread冲高 slightly declined this week, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is also expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market first declined and then rose, slightly recovering throughout the week, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 41BP, at a historically low level. In November, the economic downward pressure continued to increase. The estimated GDP growth rate in October was about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk was alleviated. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future [2][12]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation and bond market analysis are similar to those of 30 - year Treasury bonds. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24,341.6 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply, with a total of 207 million yuan issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased significantly. In terms of varieties, local government bonds accounted for the majority. In terms of terms, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds were issued [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 120 million yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 123.02 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume and proportion of different varieties changed differently [27]. Yield - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend. The 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP from the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the open interest decreased slightly [55].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance retail sector is experiencing a bottoming out in November, with expectations for recovery driven by continued national subsidies and improvements in exports [1][18]. - Despite a challenging environment with high base effects from the previous year, the resilience of leading companies in the home appliance sector remains strong, particularly in the white goods segment [13][14]. - The report highlights a potential rebound in retail demand for home appliances, supported by ongoing national subsidy policies and improved export conditions [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods category; Hisense Visual Technology in the black goods category; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs in the small appliances category [5][6][14]. 2. Market Performance and Insights - In November, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment fell by 19.4% year-on-year, while the overall retail sales in China grew by 1.3% [2][19]. - The export value of home appliances decreased by 6% year-on-year in November, with air conditioning exports down by 25.7%, while refrigerators and washing machines showed signs of recovery with growth rates of 7.6% and 15.8%, respectively [3][46]. - Air conditioning production and sales saw declines exceeding 30% in November, but January production is expected to improve due to the timing of the Spring Festival [4][59]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.44% compared to the broader market [61]. - Prices for copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 2.4%, respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices remained stable [63][64]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with residential construction and sales areas down by 20.1% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [73].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 超长债周报 30-10 利差冲高回落 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周 11 月经济数据出炉，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，生产消 费均继续下行，但物价延续改善迹象，债市先抑后扬，小 V 型走势，全 周略微回暖，30-10 国债利差小幅收窄。成交方面，上周超长债交投活 跃度小幅下降，但总体交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差 走平，品种利差涨跌互现。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 19 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 41BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...

白银价格持续走强。2025 年 12 月，全球现货白银价格创下历史性纪录。 （1）从白银定价逻辑来看，白银具有工业和金融两大属性。从工业属 性来看，2025 年工业用银占比超 60%，鉴于白银本身具有的高导电特性， 白银成为科技革命与能源转型的"战略血液"，数据中心建设和逆变器 及充电设施等需求场景，使得白银具有类似铜的工业品属性。从金融属 性看，全球信用货币信任度因财政赤字扩大和地缘动荡下滑，使白银成 为黄金之外另一种避险资金的优选标的。（2）从短期触发因素来看， 纽约 COMEX 交易所 12 月初四天内 60%的注册库存（约 4760 万盎司）被 实物交割，注册库存较 2020 年峰值下降超 70%，白银实物挤兑是发生白 银飙涨的直接触发因素。（3）往后看，中长期来看，白银支撑逻辑未 改，供需缺口持续扩大，供应端伴生矿属性导致扩产刚性，主产国扰动 进一步限制增量；光伏、AI、新能源汽车等领域的工业需求增长，叠加 全球货币宽松周期延续，降低持有成本并强化避险配置需求，金银比仍 存修复空间。短期需警惕美联储宽松预期透支、"去银化"技术突破等 可能扰动行情。 多资产图景： 整体收益方面，本周（12 月 6 日 ...