Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Insights - The report draws parallels between the current gold price fluctuations and the "gold rush" of April 2013, suggesting that significant price drops can lead to increased consumer demand for gold products [4][6] - The report highlights that while the short-term market sentiment remains influenced by gold price volatility, the long-term growth logic of the industry is shifting towards product innovation, craftsmanship, and cultural storytelling, leading to "alpha returns" [6][26] Summary by Sections Market Overview - Recent gold price fluctuations have seen a rise of 12.28% by January 29, followed by a drop of 8.35% on January 30, raising concerns about their impact on retail sales in the gold jewelry sector [4] - The "gold rush" in 2013 was characterized by a significant increase in retail sales growth, reaching 72.16% in April 2013, which continued for several months [4][11] Historical Context - The report references the 2013 gold price drop, which led to a surge in gold purchases, significantly boosting the annual performance of companies like Luk Fook Holdings, which reported a revenue increase of 43.3% and a net profit increase of 50% for the fiscal year following the rush [12][4] Current Market Dynamics - The current gold price fluctuations share commonalities with the 2013 cycle, including a prolonged price increase before the drop, which may lead to a similar consumer buying frenzy [5] - However, the structural differences in the current market indicate that the driving forces behind gold purchases are more focused on long-term asset allocation and wealth preservation rather than short-term speculative gains [5][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests two main investment directions: 1. Companies like Caibai Co., which have dual business lines in investment gold bars and jewelry, and Luk Fook Holdings, which has a competitive pricing advantage and strong operations in Hong Kong and Macau [6][26] 2. Leading companies with strong product design and differentiation capabilities, such as Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, and Chow Tai Fook, which have shown significant growth in recent years [6][26] Consumer Behavior Insights - The report indicates that consumer demand for gold products is becoming less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, with a focus on personal enjoyment and cultural recognition driving purchases [22][25] - Notably, companies with differentiated branding and product positioning have achieved high growth rates even in a high gold price environment, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing design and craftsmanship [22][25]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 黄金珠宝系列专题九 应对金价波动，以复盘对比 2013 年"抢金潮"为参考 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 |  | 商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | 证券分析师： | 柳旭 | 0755-81981311 | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522120001 | | 证券分析师： | 孙乔容若 | 021-60375463 | sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090004 | 事项： 近期，金价出现较大幅度波动，美东时间 COMEX 黄金开年至 1 月 29 日涨幅为 12.28%，但 1 月 30 日单日录 得跌幅 8.35%。市场较为关心金价波动如何影响黄金珠宝终端零售。本篇报告以 2013 年"抢金潮"为镜鉴， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from January 26, 2026, to January 30, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest return with a median change of 1.13%. Among sector ETFs, the large financial sector ETF had the highest return with a median change of 0.06%. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor ETF had the highest return with a median change of 2.39% [1][12][16]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan. Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan [2][27][30]. - As of last Friday, the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed, non-monetary ETFs were Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All-Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [5][52][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, ChiNext, A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had median changes of 1.13%, 0.09%, -0.10%, -0.62%, -2.54%, -2.57%, and -2.94% respectively. Commodity, bond, cross-border, and money market ETFs had median changes of 4.56%, 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [1][12]. - Among sector ETFs, the large financial, technology, consumer, and cyclical sector ETFs had median changes of 0.06%, -2.28%, -2.57%, and -3.61% respectively. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor, dividend, and AI ETFs had median changes of 2.39%, 1.78%, and 0.80% respectively, performing relatively strongly, while the military, new energy vehicle, and robot ETFs had median changes of -8.82%, -7.04%, and -5.65% respectively, performing relatively weakly [16]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 3.1726 trillion yuan, 1.0544 trillion yuan, and 725.5 billion yuan respectively. Commodity and money market ETFs had relatively smaller scales of 346.9 billion yuan and 153.7 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs had larger scales of 610 billion yuan and 276.5 billion yuan respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, ChiNext, Shanghai 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively smaller scales [17]. - Among sector ETFs, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 551.3 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 351.7 billion yuan. The consumer and large financial ETFs had relatively smaller scales. Among popular thematic ETFs, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales as of last Friday [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. The money market ETF had a net subscription of 1.68 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 1.82 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 67.28 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 ETF had the most net redemption of 244.613 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 243.808 billion yuan [27]. - Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 315.50 billion yuan, while the large financial ETF had the least net subscriptions of 20.62 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 16.09 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 69.73 billion yuan, while the AI ETF had the most net redemptions of 25.26 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 16.69 billion yuan [30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 83.33%, 87.54%, 99.50%, 99.42%, 66.75%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 63.94%, 74.38%, 99.50%, 82.43%, 68.15%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF have been at the 90.26% and 81.02% quantiles respectively [33][35]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 91.75%, 23.35%, 24.01%, and 97.61% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 89.27%, 45.13%, 31.60%, and 95.38% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the consumer ETF decreased significantly [39]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratio quantiles of the photovoltaic, military, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 99.34%, 98.51%, and 97.61% respectively. The price-to-book ratio quantiles of the AI, robot, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 96.78%, and 94.22% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the new energy vehicle ETF decreased significantly [42]. - Overall, among broad-based ETFs, the ChiNext and Shanghai 50 ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Among sector ETFs, the large financial and consumer ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the margin trading balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 56.364 billion yuan in the previous week to 55.044 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.237 billion shares in the previous week to 2.211 billion shares [45]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes from last Monday to Thursday, the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases, and the CSI 1000 ETF and Shanghai 50 ETF had relatively high average daily short selling volumes [47][48][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, with a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - sectors such as scale index ETFs, thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - PineBridge Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs [52]. - Last week, 10 new ETFs were established. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All - Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][30] Core Insights - The report draws parallels between the current gold price fluctuations and the "gold rush" of April 2013, suggesting that significant price drops can lead to increased consumer demand for gold products [4][6] - The report highlights that while short-term market sentiment remains affected by gold price volatility, the industry's growth logic has shifted towards product innovation, craftsmanship, and cultural storytelling, leading to "alpha returns" [6][26] Summary by Sections Market Overview - Recent gold price fluctuations have seen a rise of 12.28% by January 29, followed by a single-day drop of 8.35% on January 30, raising concerns about the impact on gold jewelry retail [4] - The "gold rush" in 2013 was characterized by a significant increase in gold jewelry retail sales, with a year-on-year growth rate of 72.16% in April 2013, which continued for several months [4][11] Historical Context - The 2013 gold rush was triggered by a rapid decline in gold prices after a prolonged bull market, leading to a surge in consumer purchases [4][12] - Major companies like Luk Fook and Chow Tai Fook reported substantial revenue growth during this period, with Luk Fook's revenue reaching HKD 19.215 billion, a 43.3% increase year-on-year [12] Current Market Dynamics - The report identifies two commonalities between the current price fluctuations and those of 2013: sustained price increases prior to declines and potential consumer buying surges during initial price drops [5] - However, it also notes structural differences, such as a shift from short-term speculative buying to long-term asset allocation and wealth preservation strategies among consumers [5][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage the current market conditions, such as Cai Bai Co., which has both investment gold bars and jewelry businesses, and Luk Fook, which has competitive pricing advantages [6][26] - It also highlights leading companies with strong product differentiation and design capabilities, such as Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Tai Fook, as potential investment targets [6][26] Consumer Behavior - The demand for gold products is increasingly driven by consumers' desire for self-gratification and cultural recognition, rather than solely by price fluctuations [22][25] - Companies that have established strong brand identities and product narratives have shown resilience and growth even in high gold price environments, as evidenced by Lao Pu Gold's revenue growth of 251% in the first half of 2025 [22][25]

Macro and Strategy - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5.0%, showing a "high first, low later" trend, with a significant inverse relationship between GDP growth and price performance [8][9] - The structural transformation in 2025 is positive, with a decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry and an increase in the tertiary industry, which helps alleviate excess supply pressure and supports domestic demand through service sector development [8][9] - The overall domestic demand remains at a historically low level, with insufficient internal demand being a major bottleneck in the economic cycle [8][9] Chemical Industry - The phosphate chemical industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with the wet-process phosphoric acid being the core preparation route, gradually replacing the energy-intensive thermal process [28][29] - Domestic phosphate rock supply is tightening due to strict environmental regulations, leading to a significant reduction in outdated production capacity [28][29] - The demand for phosphate rock is expected to remain robust, with the gross profit margin for leading enterprises around 80%, while the share of wet-process phosphoric acid consumption is projected to increase significantly by 2024 [29][30] Electronic Industry - The LCD panel industry has seen an increase in prices, with the panel index rising by 11.55% since December 2025, outperforming major stock indices [31][32] - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December reached $6.423 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 15.52% [32] - Price increases for various sizes of LCD TV panels are expected to continue into February, driven by strong demand from television brands [33] Agricultural Industry - The price of live pigs is expected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy, with the price recorded at 12.87 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026 [36] - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery, while the price of yellow chickens is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280-420 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 428%-693%, with a median estimate of 350 million yuan, aligning with previous expectations [1][9] - The non-deductible net profit is projected to be 258-387 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of about 955%-1483%, with a median of 323 million yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 1244% [1][10] - The rapid growth in 2025 is primarily driven by strong market demand in the recruitment examination training sector and the company's proactive strategies, including regional operations and the "Direct Path to Examination" product [2][10] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.371 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [5] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 350 million, 430 million, and 560 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) of 44, 35, and 27 [4][16] - The company is expected to maintain a high gross margin of 55% and an EBIT margin of 11.5% in 2025 [5][18] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on AI transformation and has established a strategic partnership with Fenbi, which is expected to enhance its AI capabilities and product offerings [2][15] - The "Direct Path to Examination" product is seen as a key reform initiative for 2025, aimed at consolidating the company's leading position in the industry [4][16] - The company has also confirmed the achievement of performance targets related to its employee stock ownership plan for 2025, indicating strong internal alignment with growth objectives [3][14]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 锅圈（02517.HK） 利润率优化明显，门店扩张驱动高增长 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 社会服务·酒店餐饮 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张向伟 | | zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090001 | | 证券分析师： | 曾光 | 0755-82150809 | zengguang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980511040003 | | 证券分析师： | 张鲁 | 010-88005377 | zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120002 | | 联系人： | 王新雨 | 021-60875135 | wangxinyu8@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 公司公告：锅圈发布盈利预告，2025 年全年预计实现收入约 77.50-78.50 亿元，同比增长约 19.8%-21.3%； 预计录得净利润约 4.43 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, REITs fluctuated upwards, outperforming major stock and bond indices. The CSI REIT Index rose 0.8% this week, with water conservancy, energy, and transportation REITs leading the gains, while data center REITs, which had significant increases earlier, adjusted significantly. The order of weekly returns of major indices was: CSI REIT > CSI 300 > CSI Aggregate Bond > CSI Convertible Bond. As of January 30, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 60 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 326 basis points. The submission and acceptance of the first 8 commercial real - estate REITs by the Shanghai Stock Exchange signify a key expansion of China's public REITs market from the infrastructure sector to the commercial real - estate sector [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of January 30, 2026, the closing price of the CSI REIT (Closing) Index was 809.56 points, with a weekly return of 0.8% from January 24 - 30, 2026, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index (-2.6%), the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (0.0%), and the CSI 300 Index (0.1%). Year - to - date, the order of returns of major indices was: CSI Convertible Bond (+5.8%) > CSI REIT (+4.4%) > CSI 300 (+1.7%) > CSI Aggregate Bond (+0.4%). In the past year, the return of the CSI REIT Index was -2.8%, with a volatility of 7.5%. Its return was lower than that of the CSI Convertible Bond Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index, but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index [1][2][6] - **Market Size and Turnover**: The total market capitalization of REITs on January 30 was 228.7 billion yuan, an increase of 700 million yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.60%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week [2][8] - **Sector - Specific Performance**: As of January 23, 2026, the average weekly returns of equity REITs and concession - type REITs were 0.3% and 0.8% respectively. Among different project - type REITs, water conservancy, energy, and transportation REITs led the gains. The top three REITs in terms of weekly returns were Bosera Tianjin Binhai New Area Industrial Park REIT (+4.94%), ICBC Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT (+4.64%), and China Asset Management CNOOC Commercial REIT (+4.52%) [1][3][15] - **Trading Activity and Fund Flow**: Among different project - type REITs, new infrastructure REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate in the period, at 1.065%. Park infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume this week, accounting for 20.251% of the total REIT trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds this week were China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT (38.6 million yuan), CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT (15.9 million yuan), and CICC InCity Mall REIT (14.46 million yuan) [3][22][23] Primary Market Issuance - From January 1 to January 30, 2026, there were 3 REIT products in the in - inquiry stage, 3 in the feedback stage, 8 in the submitted stage on the exchange, and 8 commercial real - estate REITs were officially submitted [25] Valuation Tracking - **Valuation Metrics**: REITs have both bond - like and stock - like characteristics. As of January 30, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.11%. From the stock - like perspective, relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO were used to evaluate REITs' valuations. The relative net value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks. IRR is the internal rate of return calculated using the discounted cash - flow method, and P/FFO is the current price divided by the operating cash flow [27] - **Sector - Specific Valuation**: Different project - type REITs had different valuation levels. For example, the relative net value premium rate of affordable rental housing REITs was 42.40%, with a P/FFO of 38.43, an IRR of 3.50%, and an annualized dividend rate of 2.76% [28] - **Comparison of Equity and Concession - type REITs**: As of January 30, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 60 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 316 basis points [1][30] Industry News - The first 8 commercial real - estate REITs' applications were accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. On January 29, 2026, Hua'an Jinjiang Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate REIT, Huitianfu Shanghai Real - Estate Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate REIT, and CICC Vipshop Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate REIT were submitted and accepted. On January 30, another 5 commercial real - estate REITs were submitted, marking a key expansion of China's public REITs market from the infrastructure sector to the commercial real - estate sector [1][4][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sustainability of the polarized valuation depends on the direction of the equity market. The report makes three conjectures about the possible trends of the equity market and formulates corresponding convertible bond response plans [2][20]. - In the case of convertible bond prices and valuation indicators approaching the historical 100% quantile, if the spring rally continues, the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 4200, and the market style shifts from small - cap to large - cap stocks, it is recommended to select individual convertible bonds in the growth technology sector [2][20]. - If the broad - based index continues the January shock trend and the small - cap style remains dominant, it is advisable to focus on core targets in popular sectors [2][20]. - If the equity market turns down, it is recommended to reduce positions first and then pay attention to defensive sectors [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2026/1/26 - 2026/1/30) Stock Market - The daily trading volume of the market remained high last week, with rapid rotation among sectors. The precious metals sector led the gains but had a large decline on Friday. Affected by the potential conflict risk between the US and Iran, the oil price soared, driving the performance of the A - share oil and gas sectors. The previous popular sectors such as commercial aerospace and space photovoltaics had significant corrections [8]. - Most of the Shenwan primary industries declined last week. The top - performing sectors were petroleum and petrochemicals (7.95%), communication (5.83%), coal (3.68%), non - ferrous metals (3.37%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (1.82%); the bottom - performing sectors were national defense and military industry (-7.69%), power equipment (-5.10%), automobiles (-5.08%), and computers (-4.77%) [9]. Bond Market - The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net injections last week, and the capital market changed from tight to loose. The bond market sentiment was generally strong due to the intensified volatility of the equity market, frequent positive signals from the monetary policy, and rumors about new monetary policy tools. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.81% on Friday, down 1.86bp from the previous week [9]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues declined last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61% for the whole week, the median price dropped 2.22%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity decreased 3.70% for the whole week. The overall market conversion premium rate increased 1.12% compared with the previous week [1][9]. - Most industries in the convertible bond market declined last week. The top - performing sectors were coal (0.57%), banks (-0.84%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.87%), and building materials (-1.07%); the bottom - performing sectors were social services (-8.65%), national defense and military industry (-6.45%), computers (-5.51%), and electronics (-4.88%) [13]. - At the individual bond level, Tianzhun (machine vision), Baichuan Zhuan 2 (fine chemicals), Outong (data center power supply), Haomei (aluminum profiles), and Yunji (transportation machinery) led the gains; Xinzhi (AI application), Hangyu (commercial aerospace), Dongshi (driver training), Guanzhong (ecological restoration), and Huicheng (waste catalyst treatment) convertible bonds led the losses [1][14]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 422.855 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 84.571 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous week [18]. Valuation Overview - As of January 30, 2026, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for bonds with a parity in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 61.11%, 40.98%, 36.66%, 26.78%, 20.18%, and 20.8% respectively, at the 100%/100%, 98%/99%, 99%/100%, 98%/99%, 96%/99%, and 99%/99% quantiles since 2010/2021 [21]. - For bond - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was -4.65%, at the 1%/3% quantiles since 2010/2021 [21]. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 49.75%, at the 95%/99% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stock was 8.36%, at the 96%/98% quantiles since 2010/2021 [21]. Primary - Market Tracking - No convertible bonds were announced for issuance last week (2026/1/26 - 2026/1/30). Lianrui Convertible Bond and Naipu Zhuan 02 were listed [28]. - Lianrui Convertible Bond (118064.SH): The underlying stock is Lianrui New Materials (688300.SH), belonging to the basic chemical industry. As of January 30, its market value was 16.128 billion yuan. The issued convertible bond scale is 695 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA. The funds after deducting issuance fees are planned for specific projects [28]. - Naipu Zhuan 02 (123265.SZ): The underlying stock is Naipu Mining Machinery (300818.SZ), belonging to the machinery equipment industry. As of January 30, its market value was 8.368 billion yuan. The issued convertible bond scale is 450 million yuan, with a credit rating of A+. The funds after deducting issuance fees are used for a project in Peru and to supplement working capital [29]. - As of the announcement on January 30, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the next week (2026/2/2 - 2026/2/6). Last week (2026/1/19 - 2026/1/23), 4 companies' applications were newly accepted by the exchange, 4 companies' plans passed the general meeting of shareholders, and 3 companies announced board plans. As of now, there are 100 convertible bonds awaiting issuance, with a total scale of 155.9 billion yuan, among which 8 have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 6.16 billion yuan [30][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week, the A-share market rose and then fell, there were rumors that the central bank would introduce a liquidity management tool for overnight interest rates, the gold price plunged from a high level, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active, and both the term spread and the variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. - For the 30-year treasury bond, as of January 30, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and policies, the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher, and the 30-10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - For the 20-year CDB bond, as of January 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bond, the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher, and the variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the A-share market rose and then fell, there were rumors of a central bank liquidity management tool, the gold price plunged, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bond**: As of January 30, the 30-10 spread was 46BP, at a low historical level. The economic downward pressure in December was alleviated, with a GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. The deflation risk continued to ease. The probability of a bond market correction in February is higher due to factors such as the weakening government support and the expected strengthening of the stock-bond seesaw effect. The 30-10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. - **20-year CDB Bond**: As of January 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bond, the economic situation in December improved, and the probability of a bond market correction in February is higher. The variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds is 24.8 trillion. As of January 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 248,306 billion, accounting for 15.1% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 26 - 30, 2026), the issuance volume of ultra-long bonds surged to 2,525 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume increased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30-year bonds had the highest issuance volume [18]. Primary Market - This Week's Pending Issuance - This week's announced ultra-long bond issuance plan totals 3,173 billion yuan, including 320 billion yuan of ultra-long treasury bonds, 2,838 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds, 15 billion yuan of ultra-long corporate bonds, and no ultra-long medium-term notes [22]. Secondary Market - Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,113 billion yuan, accounting for 11.2% of all bonds. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week, with a decrease in the trading volume and proportion of ultra-long treasury bonds, an increase in those of ultra-long local bonds, and decreases in those of ultra-long policy financial bonds and ultra-long government agency bonds [25]. Secondary Market - Yield - Last week, the bond market consolidated at a high level, and ultra-long bonds made minor adjustments. The yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year treasury bonds changed to 2.14%, 2.26%, 2.29%, and 2.47% respectively [36]. Secondary Market - Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30-10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, a -1BP change from the previous week, at the 38% percentile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20-year CDB bond and treasury bond and between the 20-year railway bond and treasury bond were 14BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and -1BP from the previous week, at the 11% and 14% percentiles since 2010 [44]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year treasury bond futures, T2603, closed at 111.92 yuan, a -0.34% increase. The total trading volume was 427,200 lots (-35,804 lots), and the open interest was 134,800 lots (-5,688 lots), with both the trading volume and open interest decreasing slightly compared with the previous week [50].