Market Review - The equity market has steadily risen, leading to a double boost in convertible bond parity valuation [5][20] - AI has been a continuous theme throughout the year, with a mid-year shift towards anti-involution, resulting in phase-specific performances in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and finance [9][20] - The average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds has been analyzed, showing a support for price recovery due to the exit of bottom-tier stocks and the influx of capital [12][20] Trend Analysis - The current bull market is seen as a continuation, with a focus on leveraging subjective advantages to capture changes in performance inflection points [5][20] - The passive investment trend is deepening, with the amount of convertible bonds in products determining market outcomes [16][20] - The relationship between equity and debt markets is crucial, with low interest rates in the bond market and a "small rise" era in the stock market indicating ongoing bullish potential [27][20] Convertible Bond Strategies - Traditional price-based strategies have limited space, with bonds that have a "debt floor" lacking room for growth [15][20] - The "downward adjustment speculation" strategy benefits from issuers lowering conversion prices, enhancing conversion value and bond prices [15][20] - The expansion of convertible bond ETFs and their correlation with market performance highlight the impact of passive investment on market aesthetics [20][20] Investor Behavior - Public funds have become the largest holders of convertible bonds, increasing their holdings significantly, while other institutions have seen declines due to market contraction [43][20] - The shift in investor structure indicates a growing preference for absolute returns, with insurance and brokerage firms reducing their positions during rapid price increases [40][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][26]. Core Insights - The social services sector is expected to benefit from continuous government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a potential valuation recovery during the reporting period [4][26]. - The report highlights the performance of key stocks within the sector, with notable gains from Yum China (9.53%), Kede Education (9.20%), and Jinjiang Hotels (8.99%) [14][17]. - The anticipated increase in the number of college graduates in 2026, projected to reach 12.7 million, is expected to drive demand in the education sector [19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 2.03% during the reporting period but outperformed the broader market by 2.78 percentage points [13][14]. - The report period was from November 10, 2025, to November 23, 2025, with the CSI 300 index declining by 4.81% [13][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Sanya launched its sixth round of duty-free consumption vouchers, which will run until December 31, 2025, targeting both travelers and local residents [18]. - JD Retail has established a new prepared food division, indicating a strategic upgrade in its operations [21]. - NetEase Youdao reported a 51.1% year-on-year increase in online marketing service revenue, becoming its largest revenue source for the first time [22]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Key stocks in the Hong Kong market saw changes in holdings, with Tianli International Holdings and Gu Ming receiving increases in shareholding [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on stocks such as China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, and Trip.com Group, among others, for potential investment [4][26]. - Mid-term recommendations include companies like Meituan, Misyue Group, and Ctrip Group, indicating a diversified investment strategy [4][26]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for several companies, with China Duty Free Group projected to have an EPS of 1.91 CNY in 2025 and 2.28 CNY in 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in Q3, with revenue growth of 15.5% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 14.6% [11] - The Non-GAAP net profit increased significantly by 221.2% to 191.56 billion yuan, primarily due to the sale of a stake in Makemytrip [11] - The adjusted EBITDA related to the main business was 63.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% increase, which also exceeded expectations [11] Revenue Breakdown - The company's accommodation booking revenue reached 80.5 billion yuan, up 18.3%, while transportation ticketing revenue was 63.1 billion yuan, up 11.6% [12] - International platform revenue is expected to grow by 40%, with Trip.com platform hotel and flight bookings increasing over 60% [12] - Domestic revenue is estimated to have grown about 10%, with hotel night stays maintaining a growth rate of 15% [12] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to structural impacts from the growth of Trip.com [13] - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the first three quarters showed a gradual improvement in the decline rate, indicating operational efficiency [13] - The company is expected to maintain a total revenue growth rate of over 15% despite short-term fluctuations in international travel [14] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 318 billion yuan in 2025, with a dynamic PE ratio of 11x [14] - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: 61.86 billion yuan in 2025, 71.40 billion yuan in 2026, and 82.24 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [5][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue exceeding guidance and a notable increase in performance compared to previous quarters. The hotel revenue for Q3 reached approximately 30.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [11] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in Q4, with projected revenue growth of 2-6% and domestic growth of 3-7%. The anticipated growth in franchise revenue is between 17-21% year-on-year [14][15] - The company is focusing on optimizing revenue management and strengthening direct sales channels, which has led to a slight recovery in domestic RevPAR, with a mixed RevPAR of 256 yuan, down only 0.1% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 revenue was 6.96 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous guidance of 2-6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase year-on-year [11] - The company’s domestic same-store RevPAR decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, showing a gradual recovery compared to earlier quarters [12] Membership and Revenue Management - The number of members in the company's loyalty program exceeded 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. Member bookings increased by 19.7%, accounting for 74% of total room nights [12] - The company has successfully implemented revenue management strategies, resulting in a positive year-on-year growth in average daily rate (ADR) of 0.9% [12] Expansion and Profitability - The company opened 2,038 new stores and closed 483, resulting in a net increase of 1,555 stores. The total number of operating hotels reached 12,600, with a market share estimated at 11% [13] - Franchise revenue and gross operating profit (GOP) increased by 27.4% and 28.6% year-on-year, respectively, while direct store revenue and GOP decreased by 5.5% and 24.7% [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable or slight increase in domestic RevPAR in Q4, with overall core indicators expected to maintain a healthy development trend [14] - The management expects to exceed the initial target of opening 2,300 new hotels by the end of the year, supported by improved signing and conversion rates [13] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue growth projections for 2025-2027, expecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, 5.8%, and 6.2%, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 4.44 billion, 5.17 billion, and 5.78 billion yuan for the same period [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 8% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 9.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 27% growth [1][9]. - Deferred revenue grew by 25%, indicating strong future revenue potential [2][26]. - The online gaming segment showed robust performance, with revenue reaching 22.8 billion yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year [2][14]. - The company is focusing on global expansion and the launch of new games, which are expected to drive future growth [2][17]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 64.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][10]. - The total operating expense ratio was 36%, with a sales expense ratio of 15.7%, reflecting increased marketing spending [1][10]. - The forecasted adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 39.3 billion, 42.5 billion, and 46.7 billion yuan, respectively [26][28]. Game Performance - Classic games like "Dream of the Red Chamber" continue to attract players, showcasing the company's long-term operational capabilities [2][17]. - The highest concurrent player count for "Dream of the Red Chamber" reached 3.58 million, indicating strong player engagement [2][17]. - New game releases and global launches are anticipated to enhance the company's market presence [2][17]. Other Business Segments - Youdao's revenue increased by 4% year-on-year, with advertising services growing significantly by 51% [3][18]. - Net revenue from NetEase Cloud Music was 2 billion yuan, a 2% decline year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.4% [3][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4][35]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of AI on the advertising business, cloud computing, and operational efficiency of internet giants, with a focus on the return on investment (ROI) from substantial capital expenditures [3][32]. - Domestic companies face less capital expenditure pressure compared to overseas counterparts, and AI is expected to drive notable improvements in operational efficiency for companies like Tencent, Tencent Music, and Kuaishou [3][32]. Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - Google launched the new image generation and editing model, NANO BANANA PRO, which integrates multi-modal understanding capabilities and can process up to 14 input images while maintaining consistency [18]. - Alibaba announced the "Qianwen" project, entering the AI to C market, with its app quickly rising to the third position in the Apple App Store free applications chart within two days of public testing [21]. - The AI agent trading market MuleRun released version 2.0, surpassing 500,000 users within a month of launch [26]. Underlying Technology - Google’s Gemini 3 Pro achieved a score of 1501 Elo, ranking first in the LMArena large model arena, significantly outperforming its predecessor, Gemini 2.5 Pro, in various AI benchmark tests [25]. - The AI agent trading market MuleRun has seen rapid user growth, indicating strong market interest in AI-driven solutions [26]. Industry Policy - Guangdong aims to cultivate AI and Web 3.0 technologies, targeting an AI core industry scale exceeding 440 billion yuan by 2027, with a computing power scale surpassing 60 EFLOPS [29][30]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the application of "AI + manufacturing" to enhance productivity and support the deployment of intelligent manufacturing equipment [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI-driven companies, specifically Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Baidu Group, Meitu, and Tencent Music, which are expected to benefit from AI integration and operational efficiency improvements [3][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][5][48] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 102%. The sales volume reached 116,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 149.3% [2][11] - The company is focusing on developing a new paradigm for future mobility through physical AI, with significant advancements in its second-generation VLA system and plans for Robotaxi and humanoid robots [4][30][41] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 88.5 billion, 128 billion, and 147.2 billion RMB respectively, while projecting net profits of -1.6 billion, 2.7 billion, and 4.7 billion RMB for the same years [5][48] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 20.1%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -1.9%, improving by 16 percentage points year-on-year [3][14] - The automotive sales revenue for Q3 2025 was 18.05 billion RMB, up 105.3% year-on-year, while service and other income reached 2.33 billion RMB, up 78.1% year-on-year [2][11] - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 11.9%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost efficiency [3][14] Sales and Delivery Guidance - The company delivered 42,000 vehicles in October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76%, and expects to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 36.6% to 44.3% [4][20] - The sales volume for Q3 2025 was 116,000 units, with a breakdown of sales by model indicating strong performance across various models [21][20] Technological Advancements - The second-generation VLA system integrates vision and language processing, significantly enhancing the efficiency and responsiveness of the company's autonomous driving capabilities [30][34] - The company plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026, leveraging a pure vision approach without reliance on lidar or high-definition maps [36][40] - The new humanoid robot, IRON, is designed for various commercial applications and features advanced AI capabilities, including a unique energy system for enhanced safety and performance [41][44]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Bosera CSI 500 Enhanced Strategy ETF **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to track the CSI 500 Index while employing quantitative enhancement strategies to achieve returns exceeding the benchmark index through strict investment procedures and quantitative risk management techniques[3][85] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The fund tracks the CSI 500 Index, which consists of 500 stocks with the highest market capitalization after excluding the CSI 300 constituents and the top 300 stocks by market capitalization[28] 2. The fund employs quantitative enhancement strategies, including stock selection and risk control, to generate excess returns over the benchmark index[85] 3. The fund ensures that the daily tracking deviation between the fund's net value growth rate and the benchmark is less than 0.35%, and the annual tracking error does not exceed 6.5%[51] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates stable excess returns and strong risk-adjusted performance, with a focus on high-growth and high-profitability stocks[85][86] Model Backtesting Results - **Bosera CSI 500 Enhanced Strategy ETF**: - Annualized excess return: 7.76% - Annualized tracking error: 3.84% - Maximum relative drawdown: 6.66% - Information ratio (IR): 1.79 - Sharpe ratio: 0.71 - Monthly win rate: 65.63%[3][85][55] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: High Growth and High Profitability Exposure **Factor Construction Idea**: The fund emphasizes stocks with high growth potential and strong profitability metrics, aiming to generate excess returns through factor exposures[86][67] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. The fund identifies stocks with positive exposures to growth, long-term momentum, and profitability factors[67] 2. Stocks with negative exposures to non-linear size and liquidity factors are de-emphasized[67] 3. The fund's portfolio construction ensures that 89.40% of individual stock deviations from the CSI 500 Index are within 0.5%, and 98% are within 1%[58] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor strategy effectively captures excess returns, particularly in industries like computing, electronics, and renewable energy, demonstrating strong stock selection capabilities[65][86] Factor Backtesting Results - **High Growth and High Profitability Factor**: - Positive exposures to growth, long-term momentum, and profitability factors - Negative exposures to non-linear size and liquidity factors - Strong stock selection performance in computing, electronics, and renewable energy industries[65][67][86]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NVIDIA is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Demand remains strong, with NVIDIA's revenue for FY26Q3 reaching $57.006 billion, a year-over-year increase of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22% [1][9] - The company expects revenue guidance for FY26Q4 to be $65 billion, reflecting a significant increase from the previous quarter [1][24] - The introduction of the GB300 product has driven a 56% year-over-year growth in computing business, with GB300 now accounting for over two-thirds of Blackwell's total revenue [2][12] - The Rubin platform is set to begin mass production in H2 2026, promising significant performance improvements [2][12] - NVIDIA has established new partnerships, including one with Anthropic, which will utilize NVIDIA's technology for a substantial computing capacity [2][12] Financial Performance - For FY26Q3, NVIDIA reported a GAAP gross margin of 73.4%, with a net profit of $31.9 billion, reflecting a 65% year-over-year increase [1][9] - Revenue from the data center segment was $51.2 billion, up 66% year-over-year, while gaming revenue was $4.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year [1][12][13] - The network business saw revenue of $8.2 billion, a remarkable 162% increase year-over-year, driven by the successful application of NVLink technology [2][11] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 have been raised to $213 billion, $334 billion, and $428 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to $114 billion, $188 billion, and $235 billion [3] - The expected EPS for FY2026 is $7.72, with a projected P/E ratio of 23 [4][27] - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of around 75% through ongoing cost optimization and product structure adjustments [24][27]

Employment Data Overview - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August[2] - The combined job additions for July and August were revised down by 33,000[5] Sector Performance - The private sector contributed 97,000 jobs, with notable gains in education and healthcare (59,000 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (47,000 jobs)[11] - Manufacturing, mining, and transportation sectors continued to decline, with losses of 6,000, 3,000, and 25,300 jobs respectively[12] - The construction sector showed improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, reversing previous declines[12] Wage and Inflation Insights - Average hourly earnings in the service sector increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while goods-producing sectors saw a 4.0% increase[24] - Overall wage growth lacks significant upward momentum, indicating limited inflationary pressure from wages[24] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September non-farm data is critical for the December FOMC meeting, influencing interest rate decisions[4] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, though internal divisions within the Fed complicate the decision[26] - The recent data, while positive, may not be sufficient to shift the Fed's stance decisively towards rate cuts[26]