各位领导好今天由我来分享一下观点债券市场近期波动总体来说还是不小的从长端与超长来看从四月底调整高点到五月十年期国债活跃券二四零零四波动幅度达到十个比比从高位二点三八到于五月内低点二点二八三十年国债活跃券二三零零二三波动幅度也达到八个比比从四月二十九号一级发飞那一天高位二点六一到月内低点二点五三 相比之下 中短段受到资金面宽松的利好 主流流动性分层消失则表现相对平稳五年期国债24004收益率回到2 1下方三年期国债也回到前期低点1 91附近一年期国股大行存单利率这两天也稳定在208左右从排面表现来看 四月底开启的本轮回调仲价区在长久期与超长久期上 原因上仍旧是超长期特别国债供给与央行对超长利率的指导所引起九七月长的品种跑的就越弱 举个例子二三零零二零零二三三十年国债前期低点在二点四二附近 经过五月反弹收益率仍在二点五上方而五年期国债二四零零零一前期低点在二点零五左右 目前收益率也已经达到二零零九 三年级国债甚至已有突破前期低点1.92的趋势并从收入率回调深度上来看中短久期债券也小于长久期对于后市观点个人认为目前市场的主要矛盾为财政政策明牌后货币政策的应对需要收入率曲线短端空间打开才可带动长端继续下行之前市场对本 ...

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is currently experiencing a cyclical adjustment, with a slight rebound in major indices observed last week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a weekly increase of -0.26% [2][16]. Core Insights - AMD reported Q1 2024 revenue of $5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, driven primarily by growth in the Data Center and Client segments, which saw revenue increases of 80.5% and 85.1% respectively. The management anticipates Q2 revenue to be $5.7 billion, mainly supported by the Data Center segment [9][16]. - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims reaching 231,000, the highest since August 2023, indicating a potential shift in economic conditions [10][16]. - TSMC's stock price increased by 4.50% last week, while Intel's stock decreased by 3.62%. Other notable performances include Broadcom with a 1.72% increase and Nvidia with a 2.45% decrease [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The U.S. stock market experienced a slight rebound last week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq showing weekly increases of 1.70%, 0.81%, and -0.05% respectively. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had a weekly change of -0.26% [2][6]. Company Performance - AMD's Q1 2024 revenue was $5.5 billion, with a gross margin of 46.8% and an operating profit of $1.13 billion. The company’s client market share increased to 16.3%, reflecting a 3.6 percentage point year-on-year growth [9][16]. - TSMC's market capitalization is approximately $774 billion, with a PE ratio of 27.94, while Intel's market capitalization is around $127 billion with a PE ratio of 31.25 [17]. Events/Policy Analysis - AMD's growth is attributed to a recovery in the PC market and significant contributions from the Data Center segment. The management noted that the Data Center gross margin remains low but is expected to improve in the second half of the year [9][16]. - The labor market's cooling trend may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year [10][16]. News Summary - The latest data indicates that initial jobless claims in the U.S. have reached a new high, suggesting a cooling labor market, which may impact economic forecasts [10][16]. - SMIC reported a Q1 2024 revenue of $1.75 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor sector [13][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Qualcomm (QCOM.O) and suggests keeping a close watch on companies like Nvidia (NVDA.O), AMD (AMD.O), Intel (INTC.O), and TSMC (TSM.N) due to their potential investment value in the semiconductor sector [9][14]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is currently experiencing a cyclical adjustment, with Qualcomm reporting a Q1 revenue of $9.39 billion, slightly above market expectations of $9.32 billion. The company is focusing on diversifying its market presence beyond mobile phones, particularly in personal computers and automotive sectors [9][14]. - The report highlights that Qualcomm's smartphone business remains its primary revenue driver, with a notable dependency on the Chinese market, which contributed significantly to its recent performance. The management is optimistic about the upcoming quarter, indicating a potential rebound in smartphone demand [9][14]. - The report emphasizes the growing importance of AI in the semiconductor space, with Qualcomm positioning itself to capitalize on AI smartphone and AI PC markets, suggesting that 2024 could be a pivotal year for AI integration in mobile devices [9][14]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of April 29 to May 3, 2024, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a weekly decline of 1.04%, while major U.S. indices showed slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.75%, S&P 500 up 0.23%, and Nasdaq up 1.08% [2][14]. - Individual stock performances varied, with Qualcomm seeing a weekly increase of 6.17%, while other key players like AMD and Intel faced declines of 5.99% and 1.47%, respectively [6][8]. Economic Context - The report discusses the macroeconomic backdrop, noting that U.S. non-farm payroll data for April fell significantly short of expectations, leading to renewed hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This economic environment is influencing investor sentiment towards the semiconductor sector [10][14]. - The report indicates that the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022, and wage growth slowed to 3.9%, which may impact consumer spending and, consequently, demand for semiconductor products [10][14].