Core Insights - The report highlights an escalating competition among Chinese e-commerce platforms in the instant retail and food delivery market, with significant subsidies being deployed to capture user attention and market share. This competition is not solely focused on short-term transaction volume but reflects deeper strategic goals centered around user acquisition and platform stickiness [55] - Alibaba is investing RMB 50 billion over 12 months to enhance its logistics and service integration across platforms like Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me, aiming to improve user experience and operational efficiency [55] - Meituan, as the market leader, has achieved over 120 million daily orders, while JD.com is focusing on quality and high-frequency categories through its "Double Hundred Plan" to support brand sales and improve merchant services [55] Group 1: Competitive Strategies and Subsidy Analysis - The intense competition in the food delivery and instant retail market is driven by platforms extending their services to cover local life scenarios, with Alibaba integrating various services to enhance user retention and cross-category conversion [6][7] - The national appliance subsidy program has provided a strong boost to platforms, with JD.com benefiting the most due to its dominance in the home appliance category, while Alibaba's impact is more moderate due to its broader category coverage [17][21] - The order volume in the food delivery and instant retail market surged from approximately 100 million in May to 250 million daily orders by July, indicating a significant increase in market activity [55][29] Group 2: Market Share and Future Outlook - The report anticipates that by the end of 2025, the market share distribution among Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale & Ele.me, and JD.com will be approximately 60%:30%:10%, respectively, with future competition focusing on user retention and operational efficiency post-subsidy [35][55] - The total addressable market (TAM) for food delivery and instant retail is projected to reach approximately RMB 4.1 trillion by 2030, driven by increasing consumer acceptance of home delivery services and improvements in technology and supply chain networks [32][35] - The report emphasizes that the competition will hinge on who can maintain their core advantages through precise operations and scene-based product innovation after the subsidy war [35]

Investment Rating - The report provides a rating of "Outperform" for Infineon, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [15]. Core Insights - Infineon reported FY25 Q3 revenue of €3.7 billion, aligning with market expectations, and an EPS of €0.37, surpassing the consensus of €0.34, showcasing strong profitability resilience [1][5]. - The automotive segment (ATV) generated €1.87 billion, down 11.5% YoY, while the Power & Sensor Systems (PSS) segment saw significant growth of 40.6% YoY, reaching €1.53 billion, driven by robust demand for AI server power solutions [1][2][5]. - The company anticipates FY2025 AI-related revenue to reach €600 million, potentially increasing to €1 billion in FY2026, highlighting the substantial impact of AI on performance [2][6]. - Infineon is strategically managing inventory, with current turnover at 176 days, above the target of 120 days, but plans to reduce it to 150-160 days by fiscal year-end, reflecting a cautious yet flexible approach to market recovery [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Infineon's Q3 FY25 revenue was €3.7 billion, with an EPS of €0.37, exceeding market expectations [1][5]. - The adjusted gross margin improved to 43% from 40.9% in Q2 FY25, driven by increased shipments and lower idle costs [1][5]. Business Segments - Automotive (ATV) revenue was €1.87 billion, down 11.5% YoY; Green Industrial Power (GIP) revenue was €431 million, down 9.3% YoY; PSS revenue was €1.53 billion, up 40.6% YoY; Connected Secure Systems (CSS) revenue was €349 million, down 4.6% YoY [1][5]. - The PSS segment's growth is primarily attributed to strong demand for AI server power solutions, with significant collaborations, such as with NVIDIA on a high-voltage DC power architecture [2][6]. Future Outlook - For Q4 FY25, revenue is projected at €3.9 billion, reflecting a 5.3% QoQ increase but a slight decline of 0.5% YoY, with all business segments expected to grow [3][8]. - FY2025 revenue is forecasted at €14.6 billion, a decrease of 2.2% YoY, with adjusted gross margin expected to remain above 40% [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 6.05 based on a 15.5x PE for 2025 [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's wind power assets in Fujian are of high quality, and the power supply-demand situation in Fujian is favorable, indicating potential for renewable energy absorption [11]. - The current valuation shows a strong safety margin with a PB of 1.4x and a PE of 13x for 2025E, alongside expectations for asset injections, making it a long-term investment opportunity [11]. - The company experienced a decline in power generation in Q2 2025, with a total of 0.51 billion kWh generated, down 18% year-over-year, primarily due to weak wind resources [10][11]. Financial Summary - The projected financials indicate total revenue of RMB 1,732 million for 2023, with a slight increase to RMB 1,741 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 2,144 million by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from RMB 678 million in 2023 to RMB 651 million in 2024, before rising to RMB 851 million by 2027 [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.39, increasing to RMB 0.45 by 2027 [5][9]. Project Developments - The company has several projects in the pipeline, including the Chang Le offshore project with a total investment of RMB 7.3 billion, expected to contribute approximately RMB 0.5 million to annual net profit [12]. - Another project, the Chang Le B area offshore wind project, has an estimated annual net profit contribution of RMB 0.2 million [12]. - A total of 480,000 kW fishery-PV projects have been filed, with an expected annual net profit contribution of RMB 0.4 million [12].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 Aug 2025 [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 美国能源 US Energy 全球最大数据中心集中地电力市场 PJM 容量拍卖价格创新高 PJM Capacity Auction Price Hits Record High in the World's Largest Data Center Hub 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao 杨钰其 Yuqi Yang olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com yq.yang@htisec.com 2025 年 7 月 22 日，全球最大数据中心集中地所在电力市场 PJM 发布《2026/2027 年度容量电价拍卖报告》。PJM 拍卖清算价格统一为拍卖价格上限——329.17 美元/MW-日，再创历史新高，标志着 PJM 市场整体电力供需关系进 一步趋紧。 点评 价格再创历史新高，RTO 统一清算价达上限 PJM 的业务范围覆 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term buy on thermal power, particularly during market style adjustments [1]. Core Insights - Electricity demand continues to rise, with June's total electricity consumption reaching 867 billion kWh, a year-over-year increase of 5.4% [4]. - The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices, particularly in Qinhuangdao, and expects improved Q3 performance for the industry due to rising thermal power electricity growth and prices [4]. - The National Energy Administration reported that the total installed capacity by the end of June was 3.65 billion kW, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 18.7% [4]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In June, total electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, with secondary and tertiary industry consumption at 548.8 billion kWh and 175.8 billion kWh, showing year-over-year increases of 3.2% and 9% respectively [4]. - Residential electricity consumption reached 129.1 billion kWh, up 10.8% year-over-year [4]. Power Generation - June's power generation was 796.3 billion kWh, a year-over-year increase of 1.7% [4]. - From January to June, total power generation was 4,537.1 billion kWh, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.8% [4]. Installed Capacity and Investment - By the end of June, the total installed capacity was 3.65 billion kW, with hydro, thermal, nuclear, wind, and solar power showing year-over-year increases of 3%, 4.7%, 4.9%, 23%, and 54% respectively [4]. - Power engineering investment reached RMB 363.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 5.9%, while grid investment was RMB 291.1 billion, up 14.6% year-over-year [4]. Storage Development - Gansu province is developing storage capacity, with new grid storage reaching 6 million kW, which is 5% of the 70 million kW of wind and solar capacity [4]. - Gansu's new storage capacity is 6.07 million kW and 14.03 million kWh, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 65.6% [4]. Policy Changes - Liaoning's new power reform policy includes a capacity market where coal power and grid storage receive fixed capacity price compensation [4]. - The spot market has a bid cap of RMB 1.1/kWh and a clearing cap of RMB 1.5/kWh, with adjustments for existing and new projects [4].

Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral investment rating for On Semiconductor, indicating that the stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [17]. Core Insights - On Semiconductor reported FY2Q25 earnings with revenue of $1.47 billion, slightly above market consensus of $1.45 billion, and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.53, in line with expectations [6][10]. - The company is experiencing a significant growth in AI Datacenter revenue, which has doubled year-over-year, driven by strong demand for the Treo platform and partnerships with market leaders like NVIDIA [2][7]. - Automotive revenue has bottomed out in 2Q25 but is expected to grow quarter-over-quarter in 3Q25, particularly in the Chinese market, which saw a 23% QoQ increase due to new electric vehicle projects [2][8]. - The company is proactively exiting non-core businesses, which is expected to impact revenue by approximately $300 million, or about 5% of FY2025 revenue [3][9]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In FY2Q25, On Semiconductor's revenue was $1.47 billion, with Power Solutions revenue at $698 million (-16% YoY), Analog & Mixed-Signal revenue at $556 million (-14% YoY), and Intelligent Sensing revenue at $215 million (-15% YoY) [6][10]. - The automotive segment generated $733 million in revenue, down 19% YoY, while industrial revenue was $406 million (-13% YoY) and other revenue was $329 million (-8.6% YoY) [6][10]. Future Outlook - For 3Q25, On Semiconductor expects revenue to be between $1.465 billion and $1.565 billion, with a midpoint of $1.51 billion, representing a 14% YoY decline [3][10]. - The expected gross margin is projected to range from 36.4% to 38.4%, with non-GAAP EPS anticipated to be between $0.54 and $0.64, with a midpoint of $0.59, slightly above market expectations [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In July 2025, Macau's Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.125 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.0% and a month-on-month increase of 5.0%, recovering to 90.5% of the 2019 level [1][13] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative GGR was MOP140.896 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% but a decrease of 19.0% compared to the same period in 2019 [1][13] - The growth in GGR was supported by concerts held in July featuring artists such as Aaron Kwok, Sandy Lam, and Wang Feng [1][13] - Looking ahead to August, various events are scheduled, including concerts by Eason Chan and others, which are expected to further boost visitor numbers and GGR [1][13] Summary by Sections GGR Performance - Macau's GGR in July 2025 was MOP22.125 billion, a 19.0% increase year-on-year and a 5.0% increase month-on-month, but still down 9.5% from 2019 [1][13] - The cumulative GGR from January to July 2025 was MOP140.896 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year but down 19.0% from 2019 [1][13] Visitor Trends - In June 2025, the number of inbound visitors to Macau was 2.89 million, a 13.3% year-on-year increase, recovering to 94.3% of the 2019 level [3][14] - For Q2 2025, the total number of inbound visitors was 9.36 million, reflecting a 19.3% year-on-year increase [3][14] Hotel Occupancy - The hotel occupancy rate in Macau for June 2025 was 88.4%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [4][15] - The average stay duration for hotel guests was stable at 1.6 nights [4][15]

Investment Focus - The report highlights a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy catalysis, particularly in essential consumer sectors such as dairy products and liquor, while cautioning against the risks in the soft drink sector [7]. Demand Analysis - In July, among the eight tracked essential consumer sectors, six maintained positive growth, while two experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included dining (+4.4%), soft drinks (+2.7%), frozen foods (+1.7%), condiments (+1.1%), dairy products (+1.1%), and beer (+0.6%). The declining sectors were high-end and above liquor (-4.0%) and mass-market liquor (-3.9%) [3][9]. - The report notes that five sectors saw a deterioration in growth rates compared to the previous month, while three improved. The new alcohol ban and adverse weather conditions were identified as significant negative factors affecting demand [3][9]. Price Trends - In July, most liquor wholesale prices stabilized after a period of decline. Specific prices included Feitian at 1915/1880/655 yuan for different packaging, with year-on-year declines of 665/500/155 yuan. The price of Wuliangye was 930 yuan, showing a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous month [3][22][24]. - The report indicates that the prices of liquid milk and beer saw a reduction in discount rates, while soft drink discounts increased, with stable prices for infant formula, convenience foods, and condiments [4][19]. Cost Analysis - The report states that the spot cost index for various sectors, including dairy, soft drinks, frozen foods, and beer, generally decreased in July, while futures cost indices showed mixed results. For instance, the spot cost index for dairy products fell by 2.92% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of July, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 124.1 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.05%. The food additives sector saw a decrease in share, while the dairy sector experienced an increase [5]. Valuation Insights - By the end of July, the historical PE ratio for the food and beverage sector was at 16% (20.2x), remaining stable from the previous month. The report notes that the median valuation for leading A-share companies was 20x, a decrease of 1x from the previous month [6]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy and liquor, while being cautious about the soft drink sector's marginal deterioration. Specific companies to watch include China Feihe, Yili, Mengniu, Master Kong, Uni-President, Yanghe, WH Group, and China Foods [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Chinese consumer staples sector is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In July 2025, among the eight key tracked consumer staples industries, six maintained positive growth while two experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth include catering, soft drinks, frozen foods, condiments, dairy products, and beer, while the only declining industry was Baijiu [30]. - The growth rate of most industries has deteriorated compared to the previous month, with five industries showing a decline in growth rates and three showing improvement. The new alcohol ban and adverse weather conditions are significant negative factors impacting the sector [3][30]. Summary by Industry Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - For the high-end and above Baijiu segment, July revenue was 19 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue from January to July at 243.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.8% [10]. - The low-end Baijiu segment saw July revenue of 11 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue from January to July at 115.9 billion yuan, down 12.8% [12]. Beer - The domestic beer industry reported July revenue of 17.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with cumulative revenue from January to July at 111.9 billion yuan, up 0.7% [15]. Condiments - The condiment industry generated July revenue of 36.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with cumulative revenue from January to July at 261.6 billion yuan, up 1.6% [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy industry reported July revenue of 38.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with cumulative revenue from January to July at 267.8 billion yuan, up 0.3% [19]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry had July revenue of 7.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with cumulative revenue from January to July at 64.5 billion yuan, up 1.4% [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry reported July revenue of 71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with cumulative revenue from January to July at 425 billion yuan, up 2.5% [23]. Catering - The catering sector generated July revenue of 16.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with cumulative revenue from January to July at 103.9 billion yuan, up 3.0% [25].

Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETF dropped by 1.37%, indicating a general pullback after a previous upward trend[4] - The drop was influenced by cooling expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, leading to some funds flowing to the Asia-Pacific market[4][37] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF decreased by 0.45%, outperforming by 0.92 percentage points due to positive impacts from a US-India trade agreement and central bank rate cuts[5][38] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF fell by 2.61%, underperforming by 1.24 percentage points, as the market corrected after a continuous rise[5][38] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF increased by 0.41%, outperforming by 1.78 percentage points, supported by tax incentives to boost tourism[5][38] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF rose by 0.21%, outperforming by 1.58 percentage points, but the market remains in an adjustment phase[5][38] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF increased by 0.10%, outperforming by 1.47 percentage points, but faced a significant correction due to rapid valuation increases[5][38] Risk Factors - The report highlights macroeconomic downturn risks and geopolitical tensions as potential threats to market stability[36][39]