Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Swire Properties (01972.HK) [1][6]. Core Views - The report highlights the significant advantages of Swire Properties in prime shopping districts, with retail sales in major shopping centers showing continuous improvement. For instance, retail sales in Shanghai's Xinyi Taikoo Hui, Beijing's Sanlitun Taikoo Li, and Shanghai's Qiantan Taikoo Li increased by 13.5%, 6.8%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the company's rental income will continue to grow due to its strong operational and leasing capabilities, with projected net profit growth of 449%, 54%, and 37% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to increase from HKD 14,428 million in 2024 to HKD 18,638 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.3% [1][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from a loss of HKD 766 million in 2024 to HKD 5,671 million by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [1][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from -0.13 HKD in 2024 to 0.99 HKD in 2027, demonstrating a strong recovery trajectory [1][7]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong have maintained full occupancy, with retail sales growth improving sequentially. For example, retail sales growth for Taikoo Place and Taikoo City Centre was 1.4% and 2%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [1][6]. - The overall office market in Hong Kong remains relatively weak due to ongoing downward pressure on rents from new supply, but the company has managed to maintain stable rental rates for its office spaces [1][6]. Valuation - The report estimates a target price of HKD 23.92 per share, with a current price of HKD 20.50, suggesting a potential upside [2][6]. - The dividend discount model (DDM) indicates a current per-share net present value of HKD 23.92, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.6% for 2025 [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The introduction of new VAT regulations on bond interest income is expected to favor older bonds, as they remain exempt from VAT, thus enhancing their attractiveness and potentially driving up their prices [2][3]. - The banking sector's dividend yield is projected to be around 3.8% in 2025, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.7%, highlighting the advantages of high-dividend assets in a declining interest rate environment [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic allocation within the banking sector, particularly focusing on state-owned banks and select regional banks with strong asset quality and dividend policies [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.74% during the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025 [7]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 11,292.71 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.96% compared to the previous week [7]. Bond Market Impact - The new VAT regulations apply only to newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, while existing bonds continue to enjoy tax exemptions, making them more favorable for banks [2]. - The proportion of government and policy financial bonds held by major banks exceeds 70%, indicating a strong focus on these assets [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on high-dividend banks, particularly large state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8]. - It also highlights the potential for improved return on equity (ROE) in undervalued joint-stock banks, recommending attention to banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank [8]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key banks, with recommendations for several banks based on their projected performance [9]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank is expected to have an EPS of 5.86 yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 7.58, indicating a strong investment case [9].

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Volume Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market trends based on trading volume changes over time [12][72] **Construction Process**: The model analyzes the trading volume of broad-based indices to determine short-term market sentiment. It transitions between "bullish," "neutral," and "bearish" signals based on volume dynamics [12][72] **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing short-term market sentiment but may require integration with other indicators for comprehensive analysis [12][72] - **Model Name**: Low Volatility Model **Construction Idea**: This model assesses market conditions by analyzing the volatility of indices [12][72] **Construction Process**: The model calculates the historical volatility of indices and assigns a "neutral" signal when volatility remains within a predefined range [12][72] **Evaluation**: The model provides a stable perspective on market conditions but may lag in highly volatile environments [12][72] - **Model Name**: Intelligent Algorithm Model (CSI 300 and CSI 500) **Construction Idea**: This model uses machine learning algorithms to predict market trends for specific indices [12][72] **Construction Process**: The model applies advanced algorithms to historical price and volume data, generating "bullish" signals for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [12][72] **Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong predictive capabilities for these indices, particularly in short-term scenarios [12][72] - **Model Name**: Limit-Up/Limit-Down Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market sentiment based on the frequency of limit-up and limit-down events [13][73] **Construction Process**: The model tracks the number of stocks hitting daily price limits and assigns a "neutral" signal when no significant trend is observed [13][73] **Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying extreme market conditions but may not capture subtle trends [13][73] - **Model Name**: Long-Term Momentum Model **Construction Idea**: This model identifies long-term trends by analyzing momentum indicators [14][74] **Construction Process**: The model calculates momentum metrics for indices like the SSE 50, which recently transitioned to a "bullish" signal [14][74] **Evaluation**: The model is effective for long-term trend analysis but may miss short-term fluctuations [14][74] - **Model Name**: A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model **Construction Idea**: This composite model integrates multiple signals to provide an overall market outlook [15][75] **Construction Process**: The model aggregates signals from various short-term, medium-term, and long-term models, currently indicating a "bearish" outlook [15][75] **Evaluation**: The model offers a holistic view but may dilute the impact of individual signals [15][75] - **Model Name**: HK Stock Turnover-to-Volatility Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the Hong Kong market by analyzing turnover relative to volatility [16][76] **Construction Process**: The model calculates the ratio of turnover to volatility, currently signaling a "bullish" outlook for the Hang Seng Index [16][76] **Evaluation**: The model is effective for medium-term analysis but may require additional factors for short-term predictions [16][76] Model Backtesting Results - **Volume Model**: Short-term signal transitioned to "neutral" for most broad-based indices [12][72] - **Low Volatility Model**: Maintains a "neutral" signal [12][72] - **Intelligent Algorithm Model**: "Bullish" signals for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [12][72] - **Limit-Up/Limit-Down Model**: "Neutral" signal for medium-term analysis [13][73] - **Long-Term Momentum Model**: SSE 50 transitioned to "bullish" [14][74] - **A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model**: Overall "bearish" signal [15][75] - **HK Stock Turnover-to-Volatility Model**: "Bullish" signal for the Hang Seng Index [16][76]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [8] - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance process - \( \mu \): Drift rate of the asset price - \( \kappa \): Rate of mean reversion of variance - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \( \rho \) [8] - **Model Evaluation**: The Heston model is widely recognized for its ability to capture the stochastic nature of volatility, making it suitable for modeling market fear indices [8] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Long-Short Ratio Scissor Difference - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the difference between the number of long and short signals within industry index constituent stocks. It is used to construct industry timing strategies [15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define the number of long and short signals for each industry index constituent stock on a given day - If no long signals are present, set the long signal count to 0; similarly, if no short signals are present, set the short signal count to 0 - Calculate the scissor difference as the difference between the long and short signal counts - Normalize the scissor difference to obtain the scissor difference ratio [15] - **Factor Evaluation**: The backtesting results show that the timing model based on this factor outperforms the respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical performance [15] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 13.63% (down 2.78% WoW) - SSE 500: 15.75% (down 3.31% WoW) - CSI 1000: 17.15% (down 3.26% WoW) - CSI 300: 13.96% (down 2.31% WoW) [10] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Multi-Long-Short Ratio Scissor Difference - **Performance Metrics**: - Timing models based on this factor outperformed their respective industry indices in all cases, achieving a 100% success rate in backtesting [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of July, futures sentiment cooled down, and spot prices mostly had small month - on - month declines, but prices were still higher than at the end of June. Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. Container shipping prices continued to fall, and port cargo volume decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. In the industrial sector, the incremental measures from the Politburo meeting in July were slightly weaker than expected, causing futures sentiment to cool and investment product prices to decline. In the investment sector, typhoon and rainfall affected construction activities, leading to a continued decline in cement prices. In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sales rush for new homes was evident, while second - hand home sales continued to decline, in line with seasonality [4][34]. - For the bond market, short - term implementation of anti - involution policies, price transmission, and the impact of production control on industrial growth are worthy of attention. "Broad credit" disturbances may increase compared to July. Externally, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations were in line with expectations, and the market reaction was muted. Export resilience remains, but its elasticity is decreasing, and the weakening of "rush exports" may gradually materialize. Internally, the strong futures market last week driven by major infrastructure projects and "anti - involution" led to spot price increases. This week, futures sentiment cooled, and spot demand weakened due to weather conditions. Although industrial product prices generally corrected, they were still higher than before July. In the future, price increase elasticity may be limited in the short term, but the recovery trend is hard to disprove, which may support equity sentiment. Urban renewal may accelerate, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments is expected. August is the policy effect verification stage, increasing the importance of data observation [4][35]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related - Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. The wholesale price index of 200 agricultural products and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.05% and 0.03% month - on - month respectively. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% month - on - month, while vegetable prices rose, and the decline in fruit prices narrowed [4][10]. Import - Export related - Container shipping prices continued to decline. The CCFI index decreased by 2.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. From July 21st to July 27th, port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 6.5% and 4.3% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 11.5% and 13.3% year - on - year. The BDI index decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12]. Industrial related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.4% month - on - month with a narrowing increase. The price of rebar reversed from an increase to a decrease, with a 0.26% month - on - month decline in spot price. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened to 5.7%. Copper prices decreased month - on - month, affected by the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar. Glass prices also reversed from an increase to a decrease as futures market sentiment cooled [14][18][19]. Investment related - Cement prices continued to weaken, with a 1.40% month - on - month decline in the national cement price index and a narrowing decline. In the real estate sector, from July 25th to July 31st, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 25% month - on - month but decreased by 15.4% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 4.6% month - on - month but increased by 5.1% year - on - year [20][29]. Consumption - From July 1st to July 27th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 19% month - on - month compared to the same period in June but increased by 9% year - on - year. From July 21st to July 27th, retail sales decreased by 30% month - on - month and increased by 5% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.8% and 3.3% month - on - month respectively, boosted by factors such as a trade agreement between the US and Europe and supply - side constraints [30].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 48 期） 国家发改委明确下半年重点工作包括推进低 推荐（维持） 空经济高质量发展 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴晨玥 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 121 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,968.03 | 3.12 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 29,082.29 | 3.39 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 AI 旗手：北美算力 PCB ——多行业联合人工智能 8 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2025 年 08 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：耿琛 电话：0755-82755859 邮箱：gengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517100004 证券分析师：岳阳 邮箱：yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521120002 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 证券分析师：刘欣 电话：010-63214660 邮箱：liuxin3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521010001 证券分析师：欧子兴 邮箱：ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080007 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：范益民 电话：021-205725 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for the company, expecting revenue growth driven by AI demand in the second half of the year [4][18]. Core Insights - In FY25Q2, the company reported revenue of $652 million, a year-over-year decline of 10.68% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 4.96%, but it exceeded the guidance midpoint [2][7]. - The gross margin was 57.3%, down 1 percentage point year-over-year and down 3.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but close to the upper end of guidance [2][4]. - The net profit for the quarter was $78 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 57.92% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 20.73% [2][7]. - The company anticipates Q3 revenue to be between $710 million and $770 million, with a year-over-year change of -3.66% to +4.48% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8.90% to 18.10% [4][18]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The company achieved revenue of $652 million in FY25Q2, with a gross margin of 57.3% and a net profit of $78 million [2][7]. - Inventory at the end of Q2 was $351 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 21.45% [2][7]. Performance by Business Segment - **Semiconductor Testing**: Revenue was $492 million, down 12% year-over-year, with SoC revenue contributing $397 million, down 4% [3][10]. - **Robotics**: Revenue was $75 million, up 9% quarter-over-quarter but down 17% year-over-year, affected by a weak industrial and automotive market [3][10]. - **Product Testing**: Revenue was $85 million, up 7% year-over-year, benefiting from the acquisition of Quantifi Photonics [3][10]. Industry Trends and Business Impact - Long-term growth drivers include AI, verticalization, and electrification, which are expected to accelerate revenue growth [4][16]. - Short-term challenges include macroeconomic factors affecting demand, but the company expects stronger performance in the second half of the year [4][16]. Company Guidance - The company projects Q3 revenue between $710 million and $770 million, with a gross margin range of 56.5% to 57.5% [4][18]. - Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be between $0.69 and $0.87 [4][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for Robinhood, anticipating a performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [45]. Core Insights - Robinhood reported a robust year-over-year revenue growth of 45% in Q2 2025, achieving total revenue of $989 million and a net profit of $386 million, which represents a 105% increase [1][2]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and expansion into new markets, particularly in cryptocurrency and tokenized stocks, which are expected to drive future growth [4][11]. Financial Performance Overview - Total revenue for Q2 2025 reached $989 million, with transaction commission income of $539 million (YoY +65%), driven by options income of $265 million (YoY +46%), crypto income of $160 million (YoY +98%), and stock income of $66 million (YoY +65%) [2][6]. - Net interest income was $357 million (YoY +25%), benefiting from an increase in interest-earning assets and securities lending activities [2]. - Operating expenses totaled $550 million (YoY +12%), with adjusted operating expenses (non-GAAP) at $522 million (YoY +6%) [2]. User Metrics - Robinhood Gold membership reached 3.5 million users (YoY +76%), accounting for 13% of total customers, with a conversion rate of over 35% among new users [3]. - The number of funded customers increased to 26.5 million (YoY +10%), with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $151 (YoY +34%) [3]. - Total platform assets reached $279 billion (YoY +99%), driven by continued net inflows and rising valuations in stocks and cryptocurrencies [3]. Business Guidance - The company started Q3 2025 strongly, with net customer deposits of $6 billion in July and growth in trading activities across multiple categories [11]. - Key initiatives for 2025 include expanding crypto products, launching tokenized stocks in 30 European countries, and enhancing institutional service capabilities following the acquisition of Bitstamp [4][11]. Product Development and Expansion - New products and features announced include Robinhood Strategies, Robinhood Banking (expected to launch in Fall 2025), and Robinhood Cortex for Gold members [8]. - The company is expanding its crypto asset offerings, adding 7 new EU crypto assets and 2 new US crypto assets, bringing the total to 55 and 28, respectively [8]. - Robinhood is developing a blockchain network, Robinhood Chain, focused on real-world asset tokenization [8]. Market Position and Competitive Strategy - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance product capabilities and expand its user base, with recent acquisitions including TradePMR, X1, Bitstamp, and WonderFi [30]. - Robinhood's strategy emphasizes maintaining a competitive pricing structure and enhancing user experience to retain market share against traditional brokers entering the crypto space [34].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Western Digital (WDC), indicating strong performance driven by AI-related demand and robust customer agreements [1][2]. Core Insights - In FY2025Q4, Western Digital achieved Non-GAAP revenue of $2.605 billion, a year-over-year increase of 30% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14%, exceeding guidance [2][7]. - The Non-GAAP gross margin was reported at 41.3%, up 6.1 percentage points year-over-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, significantly above company guidance [2][7]. - The company has secured long-term purchase orders with major clients, ensuring strong demand through FY2026 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - FY2025Q4 Non-GAAP revenue reached $2.605 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 41.3% and a Non-GAAP net profit of $600 million, up from $487 million in the previous quarter [2][7]. Inventory - The inventory turnover days for FY2025Q4 were 76 days, with an inventory value of $1.3 billion [10]. Revenue by End Market - Cloud revenue was $2.329 billion, accounting for 90% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 36% [11]. - Client revenue was $14 million, showing a modest growth of 2% year-over-year [11]. - Consumer revenue was $136 million, down 12% year-over-year due to decreased product prices and shipment volumes [11]. Business Progress - The company delivered 190 exabytes of data, a 32% increase year-over-year, driven by strong nearline shipments and sales of high-capacity hard drives [17]. - 90% of the business is focused on cloud services, with significant contributions from large-scale clients [3][17]. FY2026Q1 Guidance - The company expects a revenue midpoint of $2.7 billion for FY2026Q1, with a Non-GAAP gross margin forecasted between 41% and 42% [4][18]. - Operating expenses are anticipated to slightly increase to a range of $370 million to $380 million [4][18].