证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 3 月白羽肉禽月报 鸡苗价格触底反弹，后市景气度有望提振 父母代产能方面，2025 年 3 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2276 万套，同比 +3.1%，环比-1.1%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1484 万套，同比-8.4%，环比 +2.6%。3 月父母代鸡苗价格为 41.34 元/套，最新报价 25 年第 12 周数据为 39.84 元/套。 综合来看，鸡苗端盈利、毛鸡养殖端轻微亏损。3 月毛鸡养殖亏损 0.41 元/羽， 同环比亏损大幅缩减；孵化场盈利 0.32 元/羽，盈利幅度同比去年 3 月收窄。 投资建议：鸡苗价格 4 月维持高位，看好后市多因素驱动下的景气度提振。截 至 4.19 日，4 月肉毛鸡收购均价 3.67 元/羽，环比 3 月 3.53 元/羽上涨 3.97%， 展望 4 月下旬及 5 月行情，预计价格端有望进一步走强。需求侧，五一备货已 经开启，经销商补库意愿较强；成本侧，中美关税博弈下，豆粕等饲料主要原 料涨价对毛鸡价格形成较强支撑，同时此次我国也对美国进口鸡肉采取加征 "对等关税"反制，暂停 2 家美国涉事企业禽肉产品输华，有望对鸡肉价格同 时形 ...

| | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 中国太保 | 30.74 | 4.87 | 4.99 | 5.10 | 6.31 | 6.16 | 6.03 | 0.87 | 推荐 | | 中国人寿 | 36.36 | 3.09 | 3.19 | 3.25 | 11.75 | 11.42 | 11.19 | 1.92 | 推荐 | | 中国人保 | 7.13 | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.20 | 7.06 | 6.61 | 5.94 | 1.02 | 推荐 | | 新华保险 | 48.91 | 6.39 | 6.93 | 7.60 | 7.65 | 7.06 | 6.43 | 1.71 | 推荐 | | 中国平安 | 50.28 | 7.56 | 8.14 | 9.08 | 6.65 | 6. ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1][6] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 590 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.04%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 76.26% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 12.20% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 260 million yuan, which is a 36.63% increase year-on-year [1] - The report highlights the company's ability to enhance profitability through increased overseas deliveries, despite domestic market pressures [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2,419 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.2% [7] - The net profit for 2024 was 261 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.6% [7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 590 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 120 million yuan, marking a 76.26% increase year-on-year [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company has seen an increase in the proportion of overseas sales, with foreign sales gross margin reaching 33.11%, which is 16.01 percentage points higher than domestic sales [6] - The company secured new orders worth approximately 4 billion yuan in 2024, with overseas orders hitting a historical high, providing strong support for future revenue and profit [6] - The report emphasizes the company's competitive advantage in high-end products and its proactive approach in expanding into new markets [6]

证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 中观观察:行业协会眼中的现状与未来 * 核心观点 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66500887 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 本文从行业协会视角出发,观察20大中观行业的现状与未来趋势。 1)当前供需失衡、需求不足等问题仍然存在。 2)但边际上,已出现一定积极迹象,表现为:企业正通过调整改造、并购重 组等方式重构行业格局(例如百货行业);在总量偏弱背景下不乏结构性亮点 (例如珠宝消费承压,但黄金高增); 3)往后看,关注四个趋势:通过供改改善行业环境(如光伏/钢铁/石化/水泥 等);新的增长极正在形成(AI/软件/演出等);AI 助力降本提效(如餐饮/殊宝 /百货等);深耕细分领域(服装/珠宝/白酒等)。 一、供需失衡等症结仍存 * 1)供求失衡问题,主要集中在周期、制造业领域,例如a)石化,"面临深度 调整的阵痛期";b)钢铁,需求自2020年连续4年下滑,且"新的供需动态 平衡机制尚未建立";c)水泥,"水泥市场饱和度较高",在需求下滑的背景下, 内卷式竞争加剧;d)光伏,"产品供大于求,产品价格持续走低"。 发观研究 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of new electric vehicle models, including the Xiaopeng X9 and the Denza N9, which are positioned to enhance market competition in the electric vehicle sector [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of power batteries in electric vehicles, suggesting a focus on companies involved in battery production and related materials [6]. - The report provides detailed specifications of new vehicle models, including pricing, power output, and range, showcasing advancements in technology and design [6]. Industry Overview - The industry consists of 299 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 46,881.73 billion and a circulating market value of about 41,202.87 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months shows a growth of 3.9%, while the relative performance indicates a decline of 3.0% compared to the benchmark index [3]. Recent Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the public disclosure of new energy vehicle models, with 218 enterprises submitting 578 models for approval, including 498 pure electric models [6]. - Xiaopeng X9 is priced between 359,800 to 419,800 yuan, featuring a maximum range of 740 kilometers with a 105 kWh battery [6]. - Denza N9 offers a comprehensive range of 1302 kilometers and includes advanced driving assistance features [6]. - Wuling Hongguang has introduced a range-extended version, providing options for fuel, range-extended, and pure electric powertrains [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak expectation of the 2024 annual report performance may gradually materialize, with negative category performance forecasts significantly increasing compared to the previous two years. However, the sentiment in 2025 may be relatively controllable, and the over - selling of low - and medium - rated convertible bonds during the performance disclosure period is not significant [9][10]. - The new "Nine - Point Plan" has tightened the requirements for dividends. The performance disclosure in April will determine whether some underlying stocks of convertible bonds will face ST/*ST [10]. - The divergence between convertible bonds and underlying stocks may indicate the pressure of inventory liquidation. Attention should be paid to the annual report performance of underlying stocks, especially those with poor subsequent hematopoietic ability, and the potential disturbances caused by institutional inventory liquidation [18][19]. - Last week, the convertible bond market declined, and the conversion premium rates of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales were compressed [22][30]. - Last week, Huisheng and Daowen convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Shouhua convertible bonds proposed a downward revision. The approval situation of the China Securities Regulatory Commission for convertible bonds is fair, with a pending issuance scale of about 15.6 billion yuan [48][51]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. How to Identify Risks as the Financial Report Disclosure Enters the Acceleration Phase - *ST Puli will enter the delisting consolidation period on April 28, 2025, and Puli convertible bonds will become the fifth convertible bonds to delist with the underlying stock [1][9]. - As of January 31, among the 254 convertible bond issuers that disclosed their 2024 performance forecasts, the proportion of negative category performance forecasts increased by nearly 10 pcts to 66.93% compared to the previous two years, with the frequency and probability of first - losses and continued losses increasing [9]. - As of April 18, 2025, among the 177 underlying stocks of convertible bonds that announced their 2024 annual performance, 96 achieved a year - on - year positive increase in net profit attributable to the parent, while 79 had a decrease/turn - negative/expanded loss. Low - and medium - rated convertible bonds did not experience significant over - selling during the performance disclosure period [10]. - The "New Nine - Point Plan" has tightened the requirements for dividends. Currently, no disclosed underlying stocks of convertible bonds meet the delisting risk warning criteria. *ST Puli and *ST Tianchuang are under delisting warning, and ST Zhongzhuang and ST Dongshi are under other risk warnings [15][16]. - To avoid inventory liquidation risks or spread losses, forward - looking indicators such as the price trends of stocks and convertible bonds, and negative public opinion events should be considered. Stocks with characteristics such as net profit losses, significant net profit decreases, weak solvency, and private enterprises should be focused on [18][19]. 3.2. Market Review: Weekly Decline and Valuation Compression of Convertible Bonds 3.2.1. Weekly Market Conditions - Last week, the major stock indices showed differentiation, and the convertible bond market declined. There are 481 issued but unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 700.761 billion yuan. Qingyuan, Anji, Weice, and Dinglong convertible bonds have not been listed for trading, and there are no convertible bonds to be issued [22]. - In the equity market, sectors such as banking, real estate, and media led the gains, while machinery, automobiles, and computers led the losses. In the convertible bond market, sectors such as building materials and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, while communication, power equipment, and agriculture led the losses [24]. - Among popular concepts, radio frequency and antennas, first - tier real estate developers, etc. led the gains, while optical chips, consumer electronics OEM, etc. led the losses [24]. 3.2.2. Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 116.33 yuan, a 0.65% decrease from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced convertible bonds all decreased [30]. - The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales was compressed. The AAA - rated convertible bonds decreased by 3.81 pcts, and the convertible bonds with a scale of over 5 billion yuan decreased by 3.75 pcts. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a par value below 80 yuan (inclusive) increased by 4.72 pcts [30]. 3.3. Terms and Supply: Huisheng and Daowen Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and the Approval of the CSRC for Convertible Bonds is Fair 3.3.1. Terms - As of April 18, Huisheng and Daowen convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Nuotai convertible bonds announced redemption arrangements. Zhongqi, Tianlu, and Fuxin convertible bonds announced no early redemptions. No convertible bonds announced expected fulfillment of redemption conditions [48]. - As of April 18, Shouhua convertible bonds' board of directors proposed a downward revision, and Bohui convertible bonds announced the result of the downward revision, which was basically at the bottom. Thirteen convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 41 convertible bonds announced expected triggers for downward revisions [48]. 3.3.2. Primary Market - Last week, Taineng convertible bonds were newly listed with a scale of 2.95 billion yuan, and there were no new issuances of convertible bonds [50]. - Last week, there were no new board proposals, 5 new shareholder meeting approvals, no new approvals from the issuance review committee, and no new approvals from the CSRC. As of April 18, 6 listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuances with a proposed issuance scale of 12.966 billion yuan, and 4 companies passed the issuance review committee with a total scale of 2.632 billion yuan [51][55].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 中观观察：行业协会眼中的现状与未来 ❖ 核心观点 本文从行业协会视角出发，观察 20 大中观行业的现状与未来趋势。 1）当前供需失衡、需求不足等问题仍然存在。 2）但边际上，已出现一定积极迹象，表现为：企业正通过调整改造、并购重 组等方式重构行业格局（例如百货行业）；在总量偏弱背景下不乏结构性亮点 （例如珠宝消费承压，但黄金高增）； 3）往后看，关注四个趋势：通过供改改善行业环境（如光伏/钢铁/石化/水泥 等）；新的增长极正在形成（AI/软件/演出等）；AI 助力降本提效（如餐饮/珠宝 /百货等）；深耕细分领域（服装/珠宝/白酒等）。 ❖ 一、供需失衡等症结仍存 1）供求失衡问题，主要集中在周期、制造业领域，例如 a）石化，"面临深度 调整的阵痛期"；b）钢铁，需求自 2020 年连续 4 年下滑，且"新的供需动态 平衡机制尚未建立"；c）水泥，"水泥市场饱和度较高"，在需求下滑的背景下， 内卷式竞争加剧；d）光伏，"产品供大于求，产品价格持续走低"。 2）需求不足，主要集中在消费领域。例如：a）服装，"内销市场稳中承压"， "出口压力与韧性并存"；b）汽车，" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Beijing Junzheng, with a target price of 85.84 CNY, compared to the current price of 67.89 CNY [3][7]. Core Views - The company is advancing its platform strategy and leveraging AI to drive new growth momentum. Despite facing industry headwinds, the company demonstrates operational resilience and maintains solid profitability [2][7]. - The global consumer electronics market is experiencing varied demand dynamics, with AI technology propelling overall market growth, while certain segments like security monitoring show unstable demand [7][8]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 4.213 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 7.03%, with a net profit of 366 million CNY, down 31.84% year-over-year [7][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 4.213 billion CNY (YoY -7.03%) - Net profit: 366 million CNY (YoY -31.84%) - Non-recurring net profit: 312 million CNY (YoY -36.52%) [7][8]. - **Quarterly Performance**: - Q4 2024 revenue: 1.011 billion CNY (YoY -8.97%, QoQ -7.58%) - Q4 2024 net profit: 62 million CNY (YoY -63.41%, QoQ -42.22%) [7][8]. - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Computing chips: 1.09 billion CNY (YoY -1.65%), gross margin 33.02% - Storage chips: 2.589 billion CNY (YoY -11.06%), gross margin 34.55% - Analog and interconnect chips: 472 million CNY (YoY +15.31%), gross margin 49.61% [7][8]. - **Future Projections**: - Expected revenue for 2025-2027: 5.167 billion CNY, 6.122 billion CNY, and 7.110 billion CNY respectively - Expected net profit for 2025-2027: 510 million CNY, 673 million CNY, and 834 million CNY respectively [8][9]. Research and Development - The company is focusing on core technology development and expanding its product matrix, including advancements in RISC-V technology and new AI-ISP products for video applications [7][8]. - New storage chip products are being developed to meet the demand for high-capacity DRAM, with plans to provide engineering samples by 2025 [7][8]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the integrated circuit market, supported by its technological capabilities and product offerings, despite the cyclical downturn in the industry [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 18.25 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 28.68 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.5% to CNY 3.01 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 10.5% [1][3]. - The company declared a final dividend of CNY 0.2073 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to CNY 0.5848 per share, with a payout ratio of 50%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company achieved a total revenue of CNY 28,676 million in 2024, with a projected growth of 3.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026 [3][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2024 was CNY 3,013 million, with a forecasted decline of 9.1% in 2025, followed by a recovery of 10.8% in 2026 [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS for 2024 was CNY 1.17, expected to decrease to CNY 1.06 in 2025, before rising to CNY 1.17 in 2026 and CNY 1.29 in 2027 [3][9]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 11.9 in 2024, increasing to 13.1 in 2025, and then decreasing to 11.8 in 2026 and 10.8 in 2027 [3][9]. Product and Channel Strategy - **Product Focus**: The company is concentrating on core categories, with a 30%-40% increase in product matrix width and a focus on professional products, which accounted for approximately 60% of revenue in 2024 [7]. - **Channel Performance**: - Wholesale channel revenue increased by 2.6% to CNY 12.9 billion, with 4,820 wholesale stores by the end of 2024. - Direct sales channel revenue slightly decreased by 0.3% to CNY 6.9 billion, with 1,297 direct sales stores. - E-commerce channel revenue grew by 10.3% to CNY 8.3 billion, indicating strong online performance [7]. Future Outlook - The management anticipates that revenue will remain stable in 2025, with a high single-digit net profit margin. The company has become the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation, which is expected to enhance brand value [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company continues to show a trend of improving profitability, despite a decline in revenue due to normal product lifecycle effects. The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-over-year revenue decrease of 15.57% but a net profit increase of 23.53% [1][8] - The AI/AR glasses market is expected to experience significant growth, with the company well-positioned to benefit from this industry explosion. Global AI smart glasses sales are projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 533% [8] - The company's acoustic components and assembly business are anticipated to benefit from the introduction of new products and the increasing penetration of AI technology in consumer electronics [8] Financial Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 16.305 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.57% year-over-year, and a net profit of 469 million yuan, an increase of 23.53% year-over-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 12.41%, up 3.21 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit margin was 2.68%, up 0.79 percentage points year-over-year [8] - The company forecasts total revenue growth from 100.954 billion yuan in 2024 to 121 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% [3][9] Business Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in its precision components and smart acoustic assembly businesses, driven by the launch of new AI-enabled products [8] - The anticipated release of Apple's AirPods Pro 3 in 2025 is expected to boost the company's assembly business, as it is a leading manufacturer in the smart acoustic assembly sector [8] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.535 billion yuan, 4.268 billion yuan, and 5.283 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][9]