Group 1 - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical index has shown positive returns across six sub-industries, indicating strong performance [2][8] - The e-commerce health supplement market is projected to grow significantly in 2024, particularly in categories related to women's health, children's health, and health products for the elderly, with children's health products showing notably higher GMV growth [2][7] - The dual focus on nutritional supplements and preventive care is driving growth in the health consumption sector, creating a promising growth trajectory for the pharmaceutical and health industries [7] Group 2 - The medical services and medical devices sectors have performed particularly well, with medical services increasing by 7.47% and medical devices by 3.81% during the observed period [8][12] - The report notes that the chemical pharmaceutical sector has the highest valuation at 61.20 times PE-TTM, followed by biological products at 48.72 times [8][12] - The approval of the first domestic transdermal patch for asthma treatment by Beijing Tide Pharmaceutical is expected to alleviate the shortage of asthma medications for children and adults in China, marking a significant development in the pharmaceutical market [14][17] Group 3 - The expansion of the national medical insurance personal account system to 14 provinces allows for cross-province use of personal accounts for medical expenses, enhancing accessibility to healthcare services [18] - The report emphasizes the growing trend of "active health" among consumers, leading to increased demand for health supplements and preventive healthcare products [7][14] - The children's health supplement market is particularly highlighted for its growth potential, driven by a focus on enhancing children's physical health through nutritional components [7][14]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Hold" rating for the company [5][52]. Core Views - The company, Qianyuan Power, is positioned as a regional leader in hydropower in Guizhou, focusing on stable profitability from hydropower operations [13][14]. - The company has shown strong performance in cash flow management and is expected to benefit from the ongoing state-owned enterprise reform, which may lead to the injection of additional hydropower assets [5][31][39]. - The diversification into photovoltaic (PV) energy has enhanced the company's operational flexibility and growth potential, with significant investments already made in PV projects [4][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qianyuan Power was established in 1993 and has focused on the development, construction, and management of hydropower stations, primarily in Guizhou Province [3][13]. - As of Q3 2024, the company is 22.21% owned by China Huadian Corporation, a central state-owned enterprise [3][13]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1,990 million yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 17.71 billion yuan in 2024, and 25.96 billion yuan in both 2025 and 2026 [5][45]. - The net profit for 2023 was 265 million yuan, with forecasts of 252 million yuan in 2024, and 482 million yuan and 498 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][45]. Cash Flow and Investment Potential - The company has maintained strong cash flow, with an average available cash flow of 1.084 billion yuan per year from 2021 to 2023 [4][31]. - The ongoing state-owned enterprise reform is expected to create opportunities for asset injections, particularly in hydropower, enhancing the company's growth prospects [5][39]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts the company's earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.59 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.13 yuan in 2025 and 1.17 yuan in 2026 [5][52]. - The projected net profit margins are expected to stabilize around 30% in the coming years, reflecting the company's operational efficiency [5][45]. Valuation Analysis - The report compares Qianyuan Power with other major hydropower companies, indicating an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.41 for comparable firms in 2024-2026 [46][47]. - The company's P/E ratios are projected to be 24.3 in 2024, decreasing to 12.7 in 2025 and 12.3 in 2026, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to peers [5][52].

行 业 研 华福证券 工程机械 2025 年 02 月 10 日 工程机械 究 国内主机厂开门红超预期，积极财政政策支撑工 程机械需求 投资要点： 2025 年，各大主机厂迎来开门红。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 1、三一重工：2025 开年，三一泵路事业部斩获 11.2 亿元销售额， 海外市场同比增长 50%，路机板块强势冲高 60%。2、徐工机械：高端 露天矿山装备总价值 3.18 亿元，涵盖 90t、135t、400t 矿用挖掘机及 130t 级矿车等经典机型的系列高端露天矿山装备，集中交付各地客户。 全球最大吨位纯电动装载机 XC9108-EV、热销爆款 XC968-EV 齐排列， 驶出徐工绿色化、数字化装载机械制造基地，启程奔赴东南亚某矿区， 全面开启新年国际化征程的新篇章。3、中联重科：全国各园区开门红 活动期间，中联重科合计发车超 1 万台，总金额约 57 亿元，充分彰显 中联重科蓬勃向上的发展态势。其中，工程起重机械板块共发车超 850 台，总金额超 18 亿元；混凝土机械超 1200 台套、总金额超 10 亿元。 4、柳工：柳工 2025 年首批设备、服务万里行，装载机、挖掘机、平 地机、叉车、 ...

投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 2 月 5 日，中央军委主席习近平日前签署命令，发布新修订的《军队装备 科研条例》，自 2025 年 3 月 1 日起施行；《条例》提到要"鲜明立起高质 量、高效益、低成本、可持续发展新理念"；《条例》的发布施行，为推 动军队装备科研工作高质量发展提供了制度保障，军队科研与生产效率有 望大幅提升，或会进一步加速催化军工行业基本面恢复。 本周，国防军工指数上涨 5.10% ，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.98%，相对超 额 3.12pct,或主要因：1）近一个季度（2024 年 11 月）以来，国防军工指 数下跌 12.06%，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 30，作为近期超调幅度较大 的行业，在市场普涨的"红包行情"中估值修复动力较强；2）军工板块作 为成长型行业，在成长风格明显的情况下享有一定风格溢价；3）年前业绩 预告披露已结束，军工板块业绩风险已逐步释放。因此本周军工板块跑出 一定超额收益。 资金层面，本周融资买入额上周显著提升，或表明杠杆资金对军工板块信 心稳固；在指数上涨阶段，各军工 ETF 规模持续上升，被动资金呈现小幅 净流出，符合被动资金流 ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 02 月 10 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 节后猪价承压回落，短期或偏弱运行 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：节后猪价承压回落，短期或偏弱运行。1）节后消费惯性回 落，猪价承压下跌。春节后消费惯性回落，叠加生猪出栏逐步恢复，供给 压力显现，生猪价格偏弱下调。2 月 7 日猪价 15.06 元/公斤，较 2 月 4 日-0.76 元/公斤。2）节后屠企宰量低位回升，冻品库存率微降。节后屠企宰量低 位回升，整体仍显著低于节前水平。2 月 7 日样本屠企宰杀量为 11.74 万头， 较 2 月 4 日增加 37.71%，2 月 4-7 日屠企日均宰量 10.40 万头，显著低于节 前一周日均 25.34 万头水平。上周行业冻品库存率为 14.47%，较春节前一 周微降 0.03pct。3）均重被动提升，肥标价差仍坚挺。受春节放假影响， 假期期间集团场和散户出栏减少，导致猪源有不同程度压栏，行业均重被 动增加。上周行业生猪出栏均重 124.18 公斤，周环比+2.67 公斤。节前散 户积极出栏肥猪，当前市场肥猪存栏量减少，肥标价差仍坚挺，上周 175/200 公斤生猪 ...

事件： 1 月份，CPI 同比小幅回升，PPI 同比与上月持平。1 月份，CPI 同比上 涨 0.5%，涨幅较去年 12 月份有所回升，且略高于市场预期；环比上涨 0.7%，相比上月持续回升。PPI 同比下降 2.3%，跌幅较前值持平，略弱于 市场预期，环比下降 0.2%，较前值有所回落。 华福证券 2025 年 02 月 09 日 通胀数据点评:CPI 同比小幅回升，PPI 同比与上 月持平 ➢ 从 CPI 主要分项来看，1 月月份环比正增长细分项增多。 环比来看，2024 年 12 月份生活用品及服务价格环比增长 0.3%，增速由负 转正。教育文化和娱乐价格环比持平，增速相比上月同样显著改善。食品 烟酒价格环比下降0.3%，跌幅较11月份大幅减少。衣着价格环比增长0.2%， 增幅放缓。同比来看，12 月份其他用品和服务价格同比上涨 4.9%，增速依 然维持较高位。交通和通信价格同比下降 2.2%，跌幅较前值继续收窄。 ➢ 2024 年 12 月份，食品细分项价格环比增长数量增加。 环比来看，1 月份交通和通信价格环比增长 1.7%，增速大幅提升。其他用 品和服务价格环比增长 1.6%，前值为 0%。教育文 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][53]. Core Insights - Honeywell announced plans to split into three companies by 2026, focusing on automation, aerospace, and advanced materials, with projected revenues of $18 billion, $15 billion, and $4 billion respectively by 2024 [24][25]. - The AI server applications are expected to drive MLCC demand growth by over 100% in 2025, as stated by Murata Manufacturing, indicating a strong recovery in the passive components industry [28][29]. - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach $626 billion in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1%, driven by AI demand [26][28]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3553.44 points, up 5.42% week-on-week [10]. - The semiconductor materials index rose to 6198.55 points, increasing by 3.59% [10]. - The organic silicon materials index reached 5811.08 points, with a 2.44% increase [10]. Key Company Highlights - Top gainers this week included Jinbo Co. (16.25%), Jinfat Technology (15.05%), and Kaisheng Technology (12.08%) [20][21]. - The passive components industry has seen a resurgence, with Murata reporting a 2% increase in revenue to 448 billion yen and a 43.8% rise in net profit to 71 billion yen [29]. Recent Industry Trends - The demand for high-performance materials is expected to grow as domestic manufacturing upgrades continue, with companies like Guocera Materials and Huate Gas being highlighted for their growth potential [6][24]. - The global tablet market is projected to see a total shipment of 147.6 million units in 2024, with Xiaomi ranking fifth in market share [30][32].

策 略 研 究 华福证券 4、美股核心资产受 AI 和全球资本流动影响形成的高估值具有较 大风险。美元资产的风险也是对外资流入中国资产的重要驱动力量。 短期看 A 股结构性交易价值优于港股，长期美股高估值高波动率风险 加剧，推动全球资本流入中国资产，港股长期占优。 2025 年 02 月 09 日 5、短期建议关注 AI 应用相关高端制造龙头，以及应用方向里中 小市值低位补涨的机会。 短期A股交易价值优于港股——产业经济周观点 团队成员 6、长期看好 AI 应用链主及相关中国优势和稀缺制造能力。看好 港股央国企，一带一路，恒生科技，先进半导体龙头，军工，传统制 造业龙头。 投资要点： 近期观点 1、中国系统性制造能力具有全球竞争优势，且仍在上升趋势，或 将有效获得 AI 应用产业趋势带来的制造需求，并形成全球竞争优势。 中国软科技的强势或将进一步强化中国 AI 生态在全球的竞争优势。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、美国逆全球化或将在中期推动美元上升，中国全球化进程和中 美科技竞争将共同决定美元和人民币长期走势。当前或是美元长期拐 点形成的重要时间窗口。中国经济复苏节奏或将对中美汇率在中期形 成扰动。 3、中国经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of AI in transforming the online fitness industry, with Keep's strategic focus on "All in AI" to lead the next decade of growth [13][14] - Keep's user engagement metrics are strong, with an average monthly active user count of approximately 30 million and a membership penetration rate exceeding 11% [14][21] - The report highlights the expected recovery in domestic demand supported by policy initiatives, particularly in the home appliance sector, and suggests monitoring key players like Midea Group and Haier [5][38] Summary by Sections 1. Keep's Strategic Focus - Keep's CEO outlined a vision for the next decade focusing on AI integration, hardware ecosystem development, brand expansion into various sports scenarios, and global market penetration [13] - The company has been exploring AI applications since 2018, leveraging its extensive data to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [14][16] 2. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector saw a slight increase of 0.55% this week, with textile manufacturing up by 0.56% and apparel and home textiles by 0.41% [4][44] - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with cotton prices at 14,817 RMB per ton, reflecting a 0.62% increase [4][44] 3. Financial Performance - Keep's revenue grew from 663 million RMB in 2019 to 2.14 billion RMB in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 34% [21][23] - The revenue from proprietary brand products increased from 400 million RMB in 2019 to 950 million RMB in 2023, indicating a 24% CAGR [21][25] - The membership subscription and online content revenue surged from 150 million RMB in 2019 to 1 billion RMB in 2023, achieving a 60% CAGR [21][25] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors likely to benefit from policy support, including home appliances and pet products, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [5][38] - It also identifies opportunities in the export market for clean appliances and the ongoing international expansion of brands like Keep [39][6]

电子 2025 年 02 月 09 日 行 业 研 究 DeepSeek 重构端侧 AI 部署可行性，AI 化终端加速渗透 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 DeepSeek 相继发布了开源大语言模型 V3 和 R1，凭借开源、极具成 本优势、高性能已成为全球现象级模型。2024 年底发布的 DeepSeek V3 通 过算法创新和工程优化大幅提升模型效率，从而以不到 OpenAI GPT-4o 预 算的 1/10 的训练成本，实现了与 GPT-4o 等顶尖模型相媲美的性能。在此 基础上，DeepSeek 进一步推出的 R1 模型则聚焦推理优化，基于 V3 架构 引入纯强化学习与多阶段强化学习结合监督微调的 R1 模型，极大提升了模 型推理能力，在性能与 OpenAI 的 o1 正式版不相上下的同时，其服务价格 更进一步压缩到 o1 的约 3%。当前，DeepSeek 应用已登顶苹果中国地区和 美国地区应用商店免费 App 下载排行榜，在美区下载榜上超越了 ChatGPT， 成为国内 AI 产业的发展的重大驱动力，并以其低成本高性能特性驱动 AI 应用的快速落地。 DeepSeek 通过蒸馏技术重构端侧 A ...