Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The largest high-speed rail hub in Western China, Chongqing East Station, has entered the static acceptance phase, marking the completion of its construction [3]. - The Xi'an to Yan'an high-speed railway has successfully completed the tunneling of the Tongchuan tunnel, indicating that all tunnels for the line are now complete [4]. - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for railway mileage, aiming for 165,000 kilometers by 2025 and approximately 200,000 kilometers by 2035, which is expected to create significant market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Summary by Sections Project Developments - Chongqing East Station, with a total construction area of approximately 1.23 million square meters and a scale of 15 platforms and 29 tracks, is a key hub in the national high-speed rail network [3]. - The Xi'an to Yan'an high-speed railway's Tongchuan tunnel, a challenging engineering project, has a length of 11,098 meters and is now fully completed [4]. Market Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a goal for the railway operating mileage to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with high-speed rail accounting for 50,000 kilometers. To meet the 2035 target of 200,000 kilometers, approximately 35,000 kilometers of railway, including 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, need to be constructed from 2026 to 2035 [5]. Recommended Companies - China CNR Corporation: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong industry position [5]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A global leader in rail transit control systems [5]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. - Sifang Control: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail comprehensive monitoring [5]. - China High-speed Rail Technology: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [5]. - Brilliant Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance, with rich experience in technology development and project implementation [5].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that value and dividend strategies performed relatively better in January, with a recommendation to continue monitoring these strategies in February [1][2]. Multi-Strategy Stock Selection - The multi-strategy stock selection strategy recorded an absolute return of -2.93% in January, underperforming the CSI All Share Index by -0.46%. The strategy allocated higher weights to value and growth stock selection strategies [2][29]. - The multi-strategy stock selection portfolio consisted of 49 stocks, with a significant concentration in the coal, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors. The average market capitalization of the stocks in the portfolio was approximately 1228.38 billion [22][29]. Value Stock Selection Strategy - The value stock selection strategy achieved an absolute return of -1.26% in January, with an excess return of 1.15% relative to the National Value Index. The strategy was analyzed by breaking it down into single PB-ROE factors and combinations with four other factors, with the combination including growth factors yielding the best performance at 0.49% [4][44]. - The latest holdings in the value stock selection strategy included 30 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 62.91 billion. The portfolio was concentrated in the basic chemical and transportation sectors [38][41]. High-Quality Stock Selection Strategy - The high-quality stock selection strategy included 20 stocks, primarily concentrated in the food and beverage sector, which accounted for approximately 46% of the portfolio. The strategy recorded an absolute return of -4.28% in January, underperforming the CSI All Share Index by -6.03% [5][63]. - The average market capitalization of the stocks in the high-quality selection strategy was 1829.95 billion, with significant representation from the pharmaceutical and household appliance sectors [58][61]. Clean Reversal Stock Selection Strategy - The clean reversal stock selection strategy focused on the coal industry, selecting 10 stocks within this sector. The strategy recorded an absolute return of -4.58% in January, underperforming the CSI All Share Index by -2.15% [6][34]. "Dividend+" Preferred Stock Strategy - The "Dividend+" preferred stock strategy achieved an absolute return of -1.94% in January, with an excess return of 0.55% relative to the CSI All Share Index. The strategy has shown an annualized absolute return of 14.31% since January 2015 [7][50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform Market" (maintained rating) [1][59] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the framework for bank stock investment research, emphasizing the drivers of Price-to-Book (PB) recovery, which include rising Return on Equity (ROE), declining dividend yields, and increasing dividend payout ratios [4][5][6] - The report highlights that the ROE can be predicted through its components, including net interest margin, non-interest income, credit costs, and management fees, all adjusted for leverage [9][18] - It notes that the cash dividend payout ratio of Chinese banks, exemplified by China Merchants Bank's 35% in 2023, has room for improvement compared to some overseas banks [4][48] Summary by Sections ROE Upward Trend - ROE is defined as ROA multiplied by leverage, which is further broken down into net interest margin, non-interest income, credit costs, and management fees [9][18] - The report provides historical data showing the trends of PB and ROE for China Merchants Bank from 2013 to 2024, indicating a correlation between the two metrics [11][15] Declining Dividend Yield - The report states that the dividend yield is influenced by the necessary return rate of funds and risk premiums, with potential factors for a decline in dividend yield including a decrease in necessary return rates and a narrowing of risk premiums [39][40] - Historical data illustrates the relationship between dividend yield and risk premiums, showing significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023 [41][42] Increasing Dividend Payout Ratio - The report emphasizes that there is potential for increasing the cash dividend payout ratio among Chinese banks, with a comparative analysis showing that China Merchants Bank's ratio is lower than that of several international banks [48][49]

行 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 02 月 12 日 业 研 究 机械设备 产业降本趋势显现，人形机器人与 3D 打印有望 碰撞火花 投资要点： 产业链降本趋势显现：钛合金粉末降价+核心零部件国产化加速进行。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 1）粉末：据南极熊了解，3D 打印用钛合金粉末的价格从去年 600 元/kg 降到现在 300 元/kg 以下，降幅达 50%。主要原因：1、得粉率： 2022 年威拉里核心产品得粉率创历史新高，平均提升 3%以上。2、钛 材：2024 年海绵钛市场呈下行走势，一级民品海绵钛价格从年初的 5.0 万元/吨左右下跌至年末的 4.2 万元/吨左右，价格跌至市场历史最低点。 3、惰性气体：以市面上最常用的气雾化制粉为例，气体成本占据了粉 末材料成本的 30%-50%；一方面粉末生产厂商使用智能一体化氩气回 收装备降低工业气体使用量，另一方面工业气体 2024 年价格下滑。 2）核心零部件：锐科激光与某央企签订 120 台 3D 打印激光器销 售合同，用于精密核心器件的生产制造。锐科激光此次销售 3D 打印 系列激光器是采用全新的设计，优化了功率监控系统，有效地抑制高 阶模，在结构更 ...

核心观点 证券研究报告|策略专题报告 产业经济 2025年2月12日 中国制造业"登顶"的路径 证券分析师： 李 浩 执业证书编号：S0210524050003 李刘魁 执业证书编号：S0210524050006 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 2 华福证券 华福证券 • 全球制造业格局的不可逆转变。中国通过提升制造业复杂度、构建完整产业链，已打破美国主导的"垄断分工模式"。美 国通过资本、技术、市场控制全球分工的模式已现疲态，长期无法遏制中国崛起。 • 资本过度逐利，经济和科技的发展反受抑制。金融资本追求利益最大化，通过金融市场定价，鼓励企业垄断，遏制资本开 支，最终反而抑制了科技和经济发展。 • 各地区制造业发展战略的短板有所不同：美国重控制&轻发展终而失控；欧洲重供应链&轻新产业，长期失去优势产业； 日本因全球分工模式持续空心化；韩国和中国台湾过于依赖半导体，未来可能面临冲击。 • 中国崛起或将带动全球重返效率优先。美国的全球化框架为了追求绝对话语权、控制力和垄断的回报率，但丢失的是效率 ，长此以往金融的繁荣为美国模式的衰落埋下了伏笔。伴随中国的崛起，全球科技和经济发展重回效率优先模式 ...

投资要点： 行 业 研 究 传媒 2025 年 02 月 12 日 传媒 阿里云的 AIDC 产业链 行 业 动 一、The Information 报道，苹果和阿里巴巴或将为中国 iPhone 用户开发 AI 功能 根据 The Information 报道，苹果与阿里巴巴合作，为中 国的 iPhone 用户开发人工智能功能。 阿里巴巴最新大模型已迭代至通义千问 Qwen2.5-Ma，已 在 1 月 29 日发布。 态 跟 踪 二、DeepSeek 算力需求大：用户访问量及日活数持续增长， 服务器资源紧张 根据 SimilarWeb 数据统计，截至 2 月 7 日，DeepSeek 近 28 天内的总访问量达 4.42 亿次，最高日访问量达 4900 万。 因需求火爆，DeepSeek 出现了： 1）"服务器繁忙，请稍后再试"的界面。 2）DeepSeek 于 2 月 6 日宣布暂停 API 服务充值，仅存量 充值金额可继续调用。 三、阿里云上架 DeepSeek 开源模型 阿里云作为杭州当地最大的云服务商，目前，阿里云百炼 平台、PAI Model Gallery 均已支持 DeepSeek-V3、Dee ...

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 02 月 10 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 地产信用边际修复，关注两会政策窗口期 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 国开行将持续为加大保障性住房建设和供给提供中长期融资支持；深 圳 1 月新建商品住宅网签销售 5090 套，同比增长 97.3%；上海 1 月新房市 场成交 3893 套，同比增长 8.13%，二手房成交 18389 套，同比增长 12.1%； 据北京住建委官网数据，北京 1 月二手住宅网签 12480 套，环比下降 42.1%； 重庆调整房产税政策，不再将市外人员购买普通住宅纳入征税范围；大连 拟调整公积金贷款政策，首付款比例降至 20%；2 月 6 日四川省政府正式 向成都市、攀枝花市、绵阳市、眉山市政府下放省级用地审批权。短期来 看：1）稳增长压力下，3 月两会、4 月政治局会议预计再次迎来地产政策 窗口期；2）万科风险逐步释缓，地产信用底部修复利好建材板块。中长期 来看：1）欧美降息通道已经打开，我国的货币&财政政策空间有望同步打 开； 2）24 年 9 月政治局会议明确提出要促进房地产市场止跌回稳，之后 存量房贷利率下调、契税下调等需求端 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's flagship product, Furmonertinib, is rapidly gaining market share with multiple indications, including first-line and second-line treatments for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), postoperative adjuvant therapy, and specific mutations such as PACC and exon 20 mutations [1][12]. - The company has shown significant revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 35.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 75.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 122% increase [14][4]. - The company is expanding its product pipeline through both internal development and external partnerships, including collaborations for RET inhibitors and KRAS inhibitors [3][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on developing third-generation EGFR inhibitors, with Furmonertinib being a key player in the market [1][12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with significant ownership by the founders [29]. Product Performance - Furmonertinib has demonstrated superior efficacy and safety compared to competitors like Osimertinib, with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 20.8 months in first-line treatment [2][43]. - The product is also being evaluated for postoperative adjuvant therapy, with clinical trials underway [48][49]. Market Potential - The NSCLC market is substantial, with over 1.06 million new cases in China in 2022, and the company is well-positioned to capture market share as existing patents for competitors expire [30][39]. - The report highlights the potential for Furmonertinib to address unmet medical needs in specific mutation types, such as PACC, where no effective treatments are currently available [60][61]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 14.3 billion yuan in 2024, 17 billion yuan in 2025, and 20 billion yuan in 2026, indicating strong growth prospects [4][5]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease significantly, making it an attractive investment compared to peers [4][5].

华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 2 月 10 日 策 略 研 究 DeepSeek 热潮有望带动中国科技资产重估 投资要点： 本周市场表现强势，全 A 收涨 3.57%。从指数情况看，科创 50、创业 板指、中证 1000 领涨，仅中证红利下跌。从风格情况看，科技、先进制造 领涨，消费、金融地产涨幅靠后。本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少，计算机、 传媒、汽车领涨，建筑材料、煤炭、银行领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：市场情绪回暖，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股债 收益差下降至 1.7%，位于+1 标准差、+2 标准差之间。估值分化系数有所 上升。（2）市场情绪：市场情绪提振，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风格 占优，微盘股指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在 DeepSeek、华为 HMS、 云计算(27.5%、16.6%、16.9%) 。（3）市场结构：市场量能环比上升，计 算机、国防军工、传媒多头个股占比居前，家用电器、通信、轻工制造内 部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周 上升 373 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平均成交笔数较上周上升 128 万笔。陆 股通成交额排名 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][55]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong strategic foresight and execution capabilities, establishing itself in the first tier of the custom furniture industry. It has evolved from a single-category kitchen cabinet business to a comprehensive whole-house customization provider, with a diverse product range [4][7]. - The company is expected to face a growth bottleneck in 2024 due to declining prices impacting revenue, but it is poised for a rebound in 2025 as consumer demand recovers and government subsidies for home furnishings are implemented [24][31]. - The company has a robust multi-channel and multi-category strategy, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which are expected to stabilize profit margins in the coming years [38][43]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue and net profit projections for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: Revenue of 57.73 billion, net profit of 4.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8% - 2025: Revenue of 62.25 billion, net profit of 5.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% - 2026: Revenue of 67.16 billion, net profit of 5.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [51][55]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 10x, which is below the average of 12x for comparable companies [55][56]. Revenue Growth and Market Position - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.7% in revenue and 20.7% in net profit from 2015 to 2023, with 2023 revenue reaching 61.16 billion [11][24]. - The company has maintained a stable customer base despite industry challenges, with a focus on enhancing customer value through a comprehensive product offering [24][34]. Strategic Development - The company is expanding its international presence, with retail stores established in several Southeast Asian countries and a focus on both B2B and B2C markets [28][34]. - The strategic shift towards whole-house customization and integrated service delivery is expected to enhance customer engagement and increase average transaction values [4][31].