Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 11.80 [1][8] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, achieving revenue of RMB 17.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit of RMB 1.29 billion, up 33.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The beverage segment showed resilience with a revenue growth of 7.6%, while the food segment grew by 8.8%. The other business segment saw a remarkable increase of 91.8%, primarily due to the growth in alliance OEM business [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain revenue resilience, with ongoing product innovation contributing to revenue growth, despite increased competition in the takeaway market [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 34.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material prices and improved capacity utilization [7] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 increased by 1.3 percentage points to 7.5%, with beverage and food business net profit margins at 14.6% and 3.5%, respectively [7] - The company expects to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 100% over the next 2-3 years [5][8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is RMB 0.54, with projected revenues of RMB 32.88 billion and net profit of RMB 2.33 billion [4][15] - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 11.80, reflecting an increase from the previous target of HKD 11.17 [8][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the market does not have significant differences in expectations for short-term coal price increases, but the divergence lies in the price trends during the off-season, which will influence next year's long-term contract negotiations [12][15] - The report identifies three key conditions that will determine whether the off-season will be "not off-season" for coal prices: 1. Production cuts could reduce supply in the second half of 2025 by between 32 million tons and 110 million tons [2][13] 2. If the import pace from the first half of 2024 is maintained, imports in the second half of 2025 could decrease by 72 million tons [3][34] 3. If peak load continues to exceed expectations, coal consumption for thermal power generation could increase by 6.5 million tons year-on-year in the second half of 2025 [4][48] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Market Conditions - In July, extreme high temperatures combined with reduced water inflow led to a rebound in coal prices, which increased by 51 yuan/ton (8.3%) to 666 yuan/ton as of August 4 [1][22] - The overall electricity demand has significantly increased due to high temperatures, with the highest national electricity load reaching 1.508 billion kilowatts, an increase of 5.7 million kilowatts compared to last year [16] Section 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The report emphasizes that even without the impact of the current "production cuts," the supply-demand balance for coal will tighten by 11 million tons in the third quarter of 2025 due to increased coal consumption [12][56] - The report outlines three scenarios for potential production cuts, estimating a reduction in supply ranging from 32 million tons to 110 million tons in the second half of 2025 [2][31] Section 3: Import Trends - The report anticipates that if the import levels from the first half of 2025 are maintained, there will be a total reduction of approximately 100 million tons in imports for the year [3][44] - The average monthly import in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 28.13 million tons, down from 35 million tons in 2024 [3][44] Section 4: Thermal Power Consumption - The report maintains an assumption of a 5.5% increase in overall electricity consumption for the year, with thermal power generation expected to increase by 6.1% in the second half of 2025 [4][48] - If peak load continues to exceed expectations, thermal power generation could consume an additional 6.5 million tons of coal year-on-year in the second half of 2025 [4][48] Section 5: Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading coal companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, predicting that these companies will benefit from the expected increase in coal prices [5][14] - The report estimates that as coal prices rise from 600 yuan/ton to 700 yuan/ton, the profitability of major companies will increase by approximately 4% to 15% [5][65]

证券研究报告 港股通 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 2Q25 业绩预览：关注"反内卷"的影响 2025 年 8 月 07 日│中国香港 消费电子 我们预计小米 2Q25 收入同比增长 29%，毛利率环比下降 0.3pp，归属于母 公司净利润同比增长 56%。其中包含手机，IoT 和互联网业务在内的原有主 业收入同比增长 14%，汽车业务实现 204 亿收入，环比增长 10%。展望全 年：1）汽车。6 月 YU7 发布后大定数据亮眼，产能仍然是收入的主要瓶颈。 此外，近期汽车行业"反内卷"趋势下，看好汽车行业高质量发展以及行业 参与者长期盈利能力提升；2）手机。海外存储原厂供应减少，存储价格呈 现上涨趋势，建议关注存储价格上涨对手机毛利率的影响。给予公司目标价 67.8 港币（前值：71.2 港币），包含非汽车（44.3 港币），汽车（23.5 港 币）。维持"买入"。 汽车业务：看好"反内卷"长期提升汽车业务盈利能力 我们预计 2Q25 小米汽车出货约 8.1 万台，ASP 环比有所提升，实现收入 204 亿人民币，环比提升 10%，随着出货量爬坡，我们预计毛利率环比提 升 0.5pp 至 23.7%。展 ...

何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 林晓明 金融工程首席研究员 座机：0755-82080134 邮箱：linxiaoming@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 8 月 07 日 今日热点 策略：资金透视：近期公募报会数量回暖 尽管上周后半周市场历经回调，但资金面角度并不需要过分担忧：1）交易 性资金后续仍有支撑，融资余额逆势新高、7 月私募证券投资基金备案数量 创下年内新高；2）公募基金往往是中国资本市场突破平台期的核心力量，7 月中旬以来偏股基金报会数量逐周底部修复，或也将成为后续增量资金的重 要来源；3）长线资金构成了刻画增量资金的另一片拼图，当前配置型外资 单周转为净流入（但仓位尚未明显提升）、险资或稳步入市。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-08-06 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 王伟光 SAC:S0570523040001 今日深度 金工：另类 ETF 配置策略：日内趋势增强——ETF 智投研究系列 之十四 传统的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bandai Namco Holdings [6] Core Views - Bandai Namco's 1QFY26 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong sales from the Gundam mobile game and related merchandise, leading to a revenue increase of 7.1% year-on-year to 300.43 billion yen [1][5] - The company is actively exploring the value of its IP and expanding into overseas markets, indicating stable long-term growth potential in its gaming and toy businesses [1][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1QFY26, total revenue reached 300.43 billion yen, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 296.8 billion yen. Operating profit was 51.92 billion yen, exceeding the expected 44.1 billion yen, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 38.33 billion yen, higher than the anticipated 32.1 billion yen [1][5] - The gaming segment generated revenue of 107.77 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. Online gaming revenue was 55.6 billion yen, up 30.8%, primarily due to the successful launch of the new Gundam mobile game [2] - The toy segment achieved revenue of 146.89 billion yen, a 10.6% increase year-on-year, with Gundam-related toy sales reaching 25.4 billion yen, up 35.1% [3] Profitability - The company reported an operating profit of 51.92 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. The gaming business contributed an operating profit of 21.7 billion yen, up 47.3%, while the toy business generated 28.57 billion yen, a 6% increase [4] - The company has revised its 1HFY26 guidance for gaming operating profit to 32 billion yen from the previous 20.5 billion yen [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly lowers FY26 and FY27 revenue estimates by 4.6% and 3.2% to 1,285.17 billion yen and 1,383.83 billion yen, respectively, while introducing a FY28 revenue forecast of 1,440.82 billion yen [5] - The target price is set at 6,052 yen, up from the previous 5,803 yen, based on a revised PE ratio of 29x for FY26, aligning with the average of comparable companies [11][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 29.12 [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown a positive growth trajectory in its revenue and profit, with a notable increase in the contribution from high-margin CDMO business [2][3]. - The company’s CDMO business achieved revenue of RMB 22.91 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% [3]. - The company is expanding its new business capabilities, with significant progress in peptide and conjugated drug production, as well as small nucleic acid projects [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 28.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.26 billion, up 11% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of RMB 13.81 billion, with net profit increasing by 16% year-on-year [1]. CDMO Business - The CDMO business is a key growth driver, with a revenue contribution increasing from 71% in 2024 to 80% in the first half of 2025, leading to an improvement in gross margin from 35% to 37% [2]. - The company has a robust project pipeline, with 1,086 projects in clinical phases and 38 in commercialization as of the first half of 2025 [3]. New Business Development - The company has made strides in building capabilities for new business areas, including the expansion of facilities for peptide and conjugated drugs, and has onboarded over 20 new clients in the first half of 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is RMB 9.14 billion, RMB 9.52 billion, and RMB 9.74 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.03, RMB 1.07, and RMB 1.09 [5][10]. - The company is valued at RMB 259 billion using the SOTP method, with a target price of RMB 29.12 based on a total share count of 889 million [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a revenue decline of approximately 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 23% to 24% [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to external pressures by adjusting its payment and delivery schedules, focusing on channel health, and launching strategic flagship products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company’s brand possesses unique characteristics and a diversified marketing system, which may support regional and capacity expansion [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 24.0 to 25.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is around 5.7 to 5.8 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 23% to 24% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be approximately 6.1 to 6.2 billion RMB, indicating a decline of 39% to 40% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching new strategic flagship products, including "珍 10" and "大珍·珍酒," to capture market share in both mid-range and high-end segments [3]. - Efforts are being made to solidify the competitive position of existing flagship products and enhance penetration in core markets [3]. - The company aims to tap into emerging consumer trends and scenarios, such as products for birthdays and weddings [3]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27% across the board, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.38, and 0.44 RMB for the respective years [4][12]. - The target price is set at 8.04 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2025 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable net profit margin despite the adjustments, reflecting confidence in its core business profitability [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 100.00 [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with projected revenue between RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% to 17.3%. Net profit is anticipated to be around RMB 540 million to RMB 560 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [5][6] - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily driven by the multi-category layout of the Han Shu brand and substantial growth in the Newpage brand, which focuses on infant skincare [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantage in its price segment and expand its product categories, leveraging its multi-brand matrix for new opportunities [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 6,793 million (+62.08%) - 2025E: RMB 8,502 million (+25.16%) - 2026E: RMB 10,422 million (+22.59%) - 2027E: RMB 12,668 million (+21.55%) [4] - Net profit projections are: - 2024: RMB 781.21 million (+69.42%) - 2025E: RMB 1,020 million (+30.53%) - 2026E: RMB 1,283 million (+25.86%) - 2027E: RMB 1,559 million (+21.51%) [4] - The expected EPS for the upcoming years is: - 2024: RMB 1.96 - 2025E: RMB 2.56 - 2026E: RMB 3.22 - 2027E: RMB 3.92 [4] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Han Shu's online GMV reached RMB 5.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, ranking fourth among domestic brands [6] - The brand's performance on the Douyin platform showed a significant increase in GMV, achieving RMB 456 million in July 2025, a year-on-year growth of 68.7% [6] - The Newpage brand also demonstrated strong growth, with GMV of RMB 341 million in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128% [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant profit recovery due to an early price increase trend, while the aviation sector is still at the bottom of the economic cycle, with potential for mid-term improvements in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In June, the retail sales and express delivery volumes showed year-on-year increases of 5.3% and 15.8% respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to May [3] - The price increase trend has started in core grain-producing areas, which could lead to significant profit recovery for express delivery companies if this trend spreads across all price ranges [3][10] - Key companies recommended include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [10] Aviation - The summer travel season has shown weak performance, with domestic ticket prices declining by 7.5% year-on-year, despite a slight increase in passenger load factor [2][16] - The aviation sector is currently at a low point, but improvements in supply growth and demand could enhance profitability in the medium term [26] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [26] Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing an early price increase in express delivery, and the bulk supply chain is expected to recover alongside rising commodity prices [3][65] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is showing resilience as tariff impacts diminish [3] Shipping and Ports - In July, shipping rates for container shipping and oil transport declined, while dry bulk shipping rates increased due to seasonal demand [35][36] - The report anticipates stable supply-demand dynamics in August, with shipping rates expected to remain volatile [35] Road and Rail - The road transport sector is under pressure due to rising risk preferences and potential impacts from upstream industry dynamics [5] - Rail transport is expected to see flat growth in passenger traffic during the summer, with ongoing observations needed for the impact of upstream industry changes [5]

Group 1: Steel Industry - The steel industry is expected to benefit from self-initiated production cuts, with industry prosperity bottoming out in Q3 2024. If the anti-involution policy promotes crude steel production cuts, it could further enhance profit recovery [2][3] - The current phase of the steel sector is characterized by policy expectation trading and fundamental improvement, similar to the previous demand downturn cycle [2][3] - The adjustment in the Chinese steel industry may resemble a prolonged battle, drawing parallels with Japan's steel development history [2] Group 2: Saint Bella (2508 HK) - Saint Bella is the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with 96 maternity centers in 30 cities globally as of June 2025. The company is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 9.76, corresponding to a 27X PE for 2026 [3][14] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% respectively from 2025 to 2027, driven by stable same-store growth and rapid store expansion [3] - Saint Bella aims to expand its family care and women's health product lines globally, leveraging its multi-brand and platform capabilities [3] Group 3: Yum China (9987 HK) - Yum China reported Q2 2025 revenue of USD 2.787 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and an operating profit of USD 304 million, exceeding expectations [5] - The company maintains a target of opening 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a focus on sustaining same-store sales growth in the second half of the year [5] - The operating profit margin improved to 10.9%, reflecting the resilience of the leading brand [5] Group 4: Techtronic Industries (669 HK) - Techtronic Industries achieved a revenue of USD 7.833 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with a net profit of USD 628 million, up 14.2% [6] - The growth is attributed to strong sales of flagship brands Milwaukee and RYOBI, alongside a strategic reduction in non-core business investments [6] - The company is positioned as a leading global brand in power tools and outdoor products, with a favorable long-term growth outlook [6] Group 5: Dongmu Co., Ltd. (600114 CH) - Dongmu Co., Ltd. reported H1 2025 revenue of CNY 2.930 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.51%, and a net profit of CNY 261 million, up 37.61% [7] - The strong performance is driven by robust demand in the automotive and home appliance sectors [7] - The company is recognized as a leader in the powder metallurgy industry, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [7] Group 6: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891 CH) - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. achieved H1 2025 revenue of CNY 2.432 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.32%, with a net profit of CNY 203 million, up 42.56% [10] - The company benefits from strong domestic sales growth of 39% and an 18% increase in overseas sales due to capacity expansion [10] - The target price for 2025 is set at CNY 79.52, maintaining a "Buy" rating [10]