证券研究报告 金工 白银短期风险或依然处于高位 2026 年 2 月 01 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 三类商品子策略最新持仓均在农产品板块配置较高多头仓位 商品融合策略近两周（2026.01.16~2026.01.30，下同）上涨 0.09%，今年 以来上涨 0.02%。在三个子策略中，商品时序动量模拟组合近期表现较好， 商品时序动量模拟组合近两周上涨 1.79%，今年以来上涨 2.17%。时序动 量模拟组合中，近两周收益贡献靠前的品种是锌、石油气、棕榈油，收益贡 献分别为 0.43%、0.29%、0.28%，近期油脂油料类商品表现较强，组合因 做多相关商品而获取一定的正收益。近两周收益贡献靠后的品种是热轧卷 板、螺纹钢、豆粕，收益贡献分别为-0.04%、-0.07%、-0.1%。时序动量模 拟组合最新持仓中，仅做空铜和棉，对其它商品做多或不配置，其中能源化 工和农产品板块在整体持仓中的多头仓位占比较高。具体做多品种上，时序 动量模拟组合主要在豆油、棕榈油、锌、石油气等商品上配置有较多的多头 仓位。值得一提的是，期限结构和截面仓单模拟组合最新持仓也在农产品板 块配置有较高多头仓位。 海外金银比价仍处 50 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the value enhancement of the company, driven by the upward price cycle of copper and gold, the company's leading position in the domestic copper mining industry, and its strategic shift towards a "copper + gold" valuation model [1][4] - The company has exceeded its copper production guidance for 2025, achieving a total copper output of 740,000 tons, significantly above the initial guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 tons, with plans to further increase production in 2026 [2][5] - The company is actively expanding its gold segment, having recently acquired 100% equity in gold mining assets in Brazil, which is expected to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production in 2026 [3][5] Summary by Sections Copper and Gold Price Outlook - The report anticipates a bullish trend for both copper and gold prices, with expectations for copper prices to exceed $15,000 per ton from 2025 to 2028, driven by limited supply growth and increasing demand [4][5] - The report highlights that global central banks may continue to increase their gold reserves, supporting long-term price increases for gold [4] Production and Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 204 billion, RMB 324 billion, and RMB 361 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting adjustments of +6%, +26%, and +27% respectively [5][11] - The target price for the company's A shares is set at RMB 35.83 and HKD 33.95 for H shares, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7x for 2026 [5][7] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic copper mining sector, with a strong growth trajectory and a strategic focus on diversifying into gold mining [1][3] - The report compares the company's valuation favorably against peers, maintaining a premium due to its growth potential and market leadership [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.25 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant overseas deal for its long-acting peptide drug metabolism AI discovery platform, involving an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestone payments of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestone payments of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on net sales to AstraZeneca [1][2]. - This transaction is noted as the largest deal in the domestic pharmaceutical sector for the year, comparable to a previous major deal between 3SBio and Pfizer [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upfront payment, leading to a projected rapid year-on-year growth in net profit for 2026 [1]. - The long-acting metabolism platform is considered rare globally, with only Camurus having a similar platform, which enhances the company's competitive position in the overseas weight loss market [2]. Summary by Sections Transaction Details - The deal with AstraZeneca includes an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestones of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestones of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a royalty on net sales [2]. - The platform includes core assets such as GIPR/GLP-1R and three preclinical weight loss pipelines, with plans for collaboration on four additional projects [2]. Platform Mechanism - The company possesses a leading liposome platform, and the fluid crystal technology allows for long-term release of active ingredients, enabling monthly or longer dosing [2]. Pipeline Potential - The company has a robust pipeline including EGFR ADC, which is expected to enter Phase III clinical trials both domestically and internationally, and other oncology and autoimmune therapies [3]. - The ADC pipeline targets HER3, B7H3, DLL3, and aims to address gaps in lung squamous carcinoma treatment [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.45 billion, RMB 8.46 billion, and RMB 5.60 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.39, RMB 0.73, and RMB 0.49 [4][9]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 24 times for 2026, with a target price adjustment reflecting market conditions [4][11].

Core Viewpoints - The recent market pullback is seen as a technical correction rather than a reversal, primarily driven by the rapid rise in stock prices and the hawkish stance of the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chair [2] - The current market sentiment has shifted to an optimistic zone, with the emotional index reaching 62.1, indicating a potential for continued volatility in the short term [5][49] - The three driving factors for market space in the first quarter remain intact: improved liquidity, resonance in the funding environment, and upward revisions in profit expectations [2] Fundamental Analysis - Non-financial profit expectations have been revised upward by 0.4% over the past four weeks, while revenue expectations have been slightly adjusted downward by 0.1% [3] - The sectors with the most significant upward revisions in profit expectations include non-ferrous metals (7.7%), military industry (4.0%), and new energy (1.8%) [3] - The official manufacturing PMI for January stands at 49.3, reflecting demand-side pressures, although there are positive signals in price recovery [3] Funding Environment - Foreign capital continues to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, with net inflows reaching $2.8 billion, up from $1.95 billion the previous week [4] - Active foreign capital has seen a continuous inflow for three weeks, with a record weekly inflow of $640 million, while passive foreign capital remains at a high level [4] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to short-term volatility, but the medium-term liquidity outlook remains relatively loose [4] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has quickly transitioned into an optimistic zone, with the emotional index indicating a potential accumulation of short-term volatility risks [5][49] - The sentiment indicators, including net inflows from southbound funds and the AH premium score, remain high, suggesting strong market participation [5] Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with earnings certainty as a core holding, with a focus on the technology and cyclical materials sectors for potential incremental investments [6] - Short-term attention should be given to leading companies' earnings reports and industry developments, particularly in the AI supply chain [6] - Mid-term strategies should continue to overweight resource stocks, insurance, and local Hong Kong stocks after stabilization [6]

证券研究报告 固收 "看股或商品做债"为何不灵了？ 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 欧阳琳* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 2026 年 2 月 01 日│中国内地 利率周报 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 SFC No. BXH064 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com 朱逸敏* 联系人 +(86) 10 6321 1166 报告核心观点 近日，传统"看股或商品做债"策略失效，背后源于两大力量交织：一是大 宗商品价格剧烈波动，其通胀效应与经济影响背离，对债市压制有限；二是 ...

概览：北京时间 1 月 29 日（周四）凌晨美联储公布 1 月议息会议决定，政 策利率维持在 3.5-3.75%，联储对经济和就业市场表述更加乐观，市场降息 预期变动不大；关注联储主席提名情况。 联储 1 月会议如期维持政策利率在 3.5-3.75%，决议声明以及鲍威尔记者会 表态对经济前景更加乐观。理事沃勒、米兰反对维持政策利率不变，要求降 息 25 个基点。决议声明对经济增长的描述从"温和"（moderate）调整为"稳 健"（solid），删除"就业市场下行风险上升"的表述，并指出失业率出现企稳 迹象，整体表述更加乐观；鲍威尔未回应是否留任联储理事等问题，对利率 前景也没有给出明确指引。截至北京时间凌晨 4:50，相较会议前，除黄金 外，市场整体变动不大：2026 年降息预期持平于 46bp；2y、10y 美债收益 率亦分别持平于 3.58%、4.25%；美元指数回落 0.2%至 96.4；标普 500、 纳指均上涨 0.1%，道指基本持平，黄金上涨 1.9%至 5374 美元/盎司。 基本面方面，鲍威尔表示，经济前景改善，就业市场下行风险与通胀上行风 险均有所减弱。增长方面，消费者支出保持韧性、企业投 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 广义财政支出降幅有所收窄 ——12 月财政数据点评 2026 年 1 月 30 日│中国内地 动态点评 12 月广义财政支出同比降幅继续收窄，而修正后的广义财政支出（季调后） 环比增长略有放缓，显示高基数下 12 月广义财政支出力度偏紧、广义财政自 去年 9 月起或为支持今年经济增长"开门红"留有一定资金储备。具体看，12 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 11 月的 1.7%继续 收窄至 0.7%，剔除注资特别国债和用于化债的"特殊专项债"后同比降幅亦较 11 月的 3.8%收窄至 0.8%；然而，修正后的（季调后）广义财政支出环比增 长从 11 月的 33.8%放缓至 10.9%、可能反映高基数下 12 月广义财政支出力 度偏紧、广义财政自去年 9 月起或为支持今年经济增长"开门红"留有一定资金 储备（参见《财政能否助力"开门红"?》，2025/12/28）。具体看， ▪ 支出端而言， 12 月广义财政支出同比降幅边际收窄，而季调后剔除 注资特别国债和"特殊"专项债的广义财政支出增长环比有所放缓。12 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 11月的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, maintained from previous assessments [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2025, with projected revenue of 3.25 billion RMB, representing an increase of 89% year-over-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 716 million RMB, marking a turnaround from previous losses [2][12]. - The company is advancing its overseas business development (BD) efforts, with expected contributions from key products and partnerships, including a notable deal with AbbVie for RC148, which includes a $650 million upfront payment [3][5]. - The domestic market is showing strong performance, with core products expected to maintain rapid revenue growth due to manageable price reductions in insurance renewals and potential approvals for new indications [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 have been adjusted to 3.25 billion RMB, with a significant increase in net profit to 716 million RMB, reflecting a substantial recovery from previous losses [12][17]. - The company anticipates continued growth in 2026, with revenue expected to reach 7.83 billion RMB, driven by both domestic sales and international BD activities [11][12]. Pipeline Development - The clinical development of RC148 is progressing, with potential for global Phase III trials to start soon, which could enhance its market position significantly [3][4]. - The company is also advancing other key products, including the global Phase III clinical trials for its lead candidates, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [4][5]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for A-shares is set at 151.81 RMB, while the target price for H-shares is 143.58 HKD, reflecting a premium of 18.80% based on recent valuations [5][14]. - The valuation adjustments are based on changes in the fair value of warrants and a decrease in debt financing needs, leading to an updated forecast for net profits in the coming years [12][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $539.22 [1][5] Core Views - The company reported FY26Q2 revenue of $81.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17%, exceeding Visible Alpha consensus by 1.20% [1] - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the productivity and business processes, as well as the intelligent cloud segments, indicating a strong outlook for AI commercialization in FY2026 [1] - The number of paid users for M365 Copilot exceeded 15 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 160%, while GitHub Copilot paid users reached 4.7 million, up 75% year-over-year [2] - The intelligent cloud business revenue reached $32.9 billion, with Azure and other cloud services revenue growing by 39% year-over-year, although the growth rate showed a slight deceleration compared to the previous quarter [3] - The company’s capital expenditures (CapEx) for FY26Q2 were $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, indicating a strong commitment to AI commercialization despite a guidance for a slowdown in CapEx for FY26Q3 [4] - Revenue forecasts for FY26-28 have been slightly adjusted upwards to $326.5 billion, $380.6 billion, and $445.8 billion respectively, with EPS estimates also increased [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q2 revenue was $81.3 billion, with a 17% year-over-year increase and net profit of $38.5 billion, up 60% year-over-year [1] - The productivity and business processes segment generated $34.1 billion in revenue, a 16% increase year-over-year, driven by the acceleration of Copilot product commercialization [2] - The intelligent cloud segment reported $32.9 billion in revenue, a 29% increase year-over-year, with Azure revenue growing by 39% [3] Capital Expenditures - CapEx for FY26Q2 was $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, indicating a strong focus on AI commercialization [4] - The company expects a slowdown in CapEx for FY26Q3, but overall CapEx growth for FY26 is anticipated to exceed FY25 levels [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY26-28 have been adjusted to $326.5 billion, $380.6 billion, and $445.8 billion respectively, reflecting positive growth expectations [5] - EPS estimates for FY26-28 have been slightly increased to $16.34, $19.43, and $23.16 respectively [5]

证券研究报告 华锐精密 (688059 CH) 高端领域持续布局强化竞争优势 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 通用机械 | 目标价(人民币): | 123.97 | 随着全球制造业加速向数字化、智能化转型，华锐精密持续加码技术创新， 自主研发"智加"工业软件系统，成功实现加工全流程智能化监测与优化， 有效提升生产效率与加工质量。公司积极布局人形机器人等新兴高增长产 业，聚焦核心零部件加工环节的需求痛点，针对性研发创新刀具解决方案， 凭借技术优势抢占市场先机。此外，公司凭借多年深耕积累，构建起覆盖全 国的销售网络和经销模式，渠道布局优势显著。叠加当前原料成本上涨背景 下的行业红利，公司有望进一步强化技术壁垒，巩固市场地位，持续扩大市 场份额，充分受益于行业升级与新兴赛道发展的双重机遇。维持买入评级。 创新工业软件系统，推动切削加工数字化升级 在制造业数字化与智能化深度融合背景下，切削加工正由"经验驱动"向"数 据驱动"转变。2025 年 ...