证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 全球多数市场维持波动率偏高的态势 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周全球多数市场仍然保持高波动态 势。本周美股三大宽基指数出现回调。本周美股细分行业中， 信息技术、非必需消费、通信服务、医疗保健等行业回调较 多。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率为 28.3，市盈率虽然较之 前有所下降，但是不属于偏低区间；费城半导体指数市盈率为 35.4，市盈率仍然偏高；美国科技股权重占比较大的纳斯达克指 数的市盈率依然有 35.7，由于美股科技股估值需要进一步消 化，叠加特朗普政策不确定性以及美股科技股基本面利好还需 等待，预计在美股科技股即使未来短期再出现超跌反弹，中期 来看美股科技股仍然容易出现进一步回调；由于美股市场存在 做空工具，一些美股科技股的中期下跌幅度可能超出于基本面 本身的下行情况。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率下降至 32.66，仍然 明显高于历史平均数 17.23 和中位数 16.04。由于特朗普政策的 不确定性以及美股 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit for the company, with a 171.28% quarter-on-quarter growth to $548 million in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of $252 million in the same period last year [10][11] - The report indicates that the increase in aluminum prices and a decrease in alumina prices contributed to the net gains, despite challenges such as reduced shipment volumes and import aluminum tariff costs [11] - The company expects stable production and shipment levels for alumina and aluminum in 2025, with specific forecasts for Q2 indicating potential impacts from tariffs and operational costs [17][18] Production and Operational Performance - In Q1 2025, bauxite production was 9.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.94% year-on-year and 2.15% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Alumina production was 2.355 million tons, down 11.8% year-on-year and 1.46% quarter-on-quarter, while third-party alumina shipments were 2.105 million tons, reflecting a 12.2% year-on-year decrease [1][7] - The average realized price for third-party alumina was $575 per ton, up 54.57% year-on-year but down 9.59% quarter-on-quarter [2] Financial Performance - The total revenue from third-party businesses in Q1 2025 was $3.369 billion, a decrease of 3.63% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 29.63% year-on-year [9] - The adjusted operating cost for alumina was $312 per ton, reflecting a 0.6% year-on-year increase and a 2.63% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][6] - The adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment was $664 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 377.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.26% [7] Strategic Actions - The company is actively engaging with government entities to discuss the impact of tariffs on trade flows and the importance of a vertically integrated aluminum supply chain to the U.S. economy [13] - A debt restructuring initiative was completed, involving the issuance of $500 million in senior notes due in 2030 and 2032, with net proceeds of $985 million primarily used for refinancing existing debt [14][15] - A joint venture was established to support the ongoing operations of the San Ciprián plant, with the company holding a 75% stake [16] Outlook for 2025 - The company anticipates alumina production and shipment levels to remain stable, with total production expected between 9.5 million to 9.7 million tons and shipments between 13.1 million to 13.3 million tons [17] - For Q2 2025, the aluminum business is projected to face a $90 million quarter-on-quarter adverse impact due to tariffs on imports from Canada [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue at 5.153 billion and net profit at 495 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.91% and 29.07% respectively [2] - The decline in performance was attributed to negative operating leverage, rigid expenses, and a reduction in investment income [2] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares and 0.7 yuan mid-term, with a payout ratio of 35% [3] - The company is investing 300-400 million yuan in a new R&D center and acquiring the global intellectual property rights for the Woolrich brand for 380 million yuan [3] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 was 5.153 billion, with a projected increase to 5.602 billion in 2025 and 6.205 billion in 2026 [11] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 495 million, with projections of 534 million in 2025 and 700 million in 2026 [11] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 65.0%, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.34 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.37 yuan in 2025 and 0.48 yuan in 2026 [11] Brand Performance - The company’s main brands, including Baoniao and Hazzys, showed mixed results, with Baoniao experiencing a decline due to reduced group purchasing budgets [4] - The number of stores for Baoniao increased by 4 to 821, while Hazzys opened 21 new stores, bringing the total to 478 [4] - Online and direct sales channels showed slight growth, with online revenue at 8.17 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.42% [4] Profitability Analysis - The company’s gross margin increased slightly to 65.0%, while the net profit margin decreased to 9.6% due to rising sales expenses and asset impairment losses [5][6] - The sales expense increased by 100 million, primarily due to higher advertising costs [6] - The company’s net profit for Q4 2024 was reported at 80 million, with a net profit margin of 4.9% [6] Inventory and Receivables - The company’s inventory at the end of 2024 was 1.205 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.66% [7] - Accounts receivable also increased to 693 million, with a turnover period of 47 days [7] Investment Outlook - Short-term outlook remains cautious due to high base effects and low confidence among franchisees, but there is cautious optimism for the year ahead [8] - The company expects to see improvements in its main brand and other segments in the coming years, with projected revenue growth of 8.7% in 2025 and 10.8% in 2026 [9]

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 一周市场数据复盘 20250418 [Table_Summary] ► 宽基指数表现 上周市场窄幅波动，上证综指、上证 50 表现较好，分别 上涨 1.19%、1.45%；创业板指、科创 50 指数出现下跌，跌幅 分别为 0.64%、0.31%。 今年以来小盘成长风格表现较好，中证 2000、科创 50 指 数涨幅排名靠前，分别上涨 0.45%、1.99%。 ► 行业指数表现 上周多数行业出现上涨，涨幅最大的行业是银行、房地 产，分别上涨 4.04%、3.40%；跌幅最大的行业是国防军工、 农林牧渔，分别下跌 2.55%、2.15%。 今年以来有色金属、银行行业表现最好，分别上涨 5.89%、3.51%。 当前 PE 分位数最高的三个行业是钢铁、建筑材料、房地 产，分别为 99%、97%、93%；PE 分位数最低的三个行业是公 用事业、食品饮料、农林牧渔，分别为 7%、11%、12%。 ► 行业拥挤度 上周没有行业出现交易拥挤。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_Author] 分析师：张立宁 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company achieved a record high in quarterly performance for Q1 2025, driven by significant growth in new products and markets, improved product structure, and enhanced operational efficiency [2] - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 1.461 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.03% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 million yuan, up 37.02% year-on-year and 12.09% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company is well-positioned in the automotive electronics and data center sectors, with a focus on AI applications and energy-efficient products [4][7] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the revenue breakdown by product was as follows: signal processing (510 million yuan, -4.95% YoY), power management (508 million yuan, +23.87% YoY), automotive electronics or energy storage (314 million yuan, +65.46% YoY), and ceramics & PCB & others (128 million yuan, +5.02% YoY) [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 35.56%, a slight decrease of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 2.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company maintains a strong cost control strategy, with a total expense ratio of 16.13% in Q1 2025, down 1.84 percentage points year-on-year and 0.48 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth of 20.32%, 15.61%, and 14.10% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 26.1%, 25.1%, and 20.3% in the same period [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.30, 1.63, and 1.96 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8] - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in hydrogen fuel cell projects, which could open new markets for growth [7]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 业绩符合预期，国际化成果进一步彰显 [Table_Title2] 三一重工(600031) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600031 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 20.76/14.84 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1626 | | 最新收盘价： | 19.19 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1624 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 8,464.22 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2024 年年报。 ►业绩符合预期，盈利能力稳步提升。 根据公司年报，2024 年公司实现营业总收入 783.8 亿元，同比增长 5.9%；实现归母净利润 59.8 亿元，同比增 长 32.0%。24Q4 公司实现营业总收入 200.2 亿元，同比增长 12.1%；实现归母净利润 11.1 亿元，同比增长 141.2%。根据公司年报，公 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 力拓 2025Q1 铝土矿产量同比增加 12%至 1496.6 万吨，铜产量同比增加 16%至 21 万吨，碳酸锂当 量产量为 1.7 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 经营活动情况 1.铝 1）铝土矿： 2025Q1，环比减少 3%。第一季度产量创历史新高，3 月份产 量创历史新高。 2025Q1 铝土矿第三方发货量为 980.7 万吨，同比增加 15%，环 比减少 8%。 2）氧化铝 2025Q1 氧化铝产量 192.1 万吨，同比增加 3%，环比减少 4%。在去年经历天然气中断后，稳定运营方面取得进展。 2025Q1 再生铝产量 6.6 万吨，同比减少 11%，环比增加 14%。2025Q1 由于市场条件逐步改善，产量有所上升。 2.铜 2025Q1 铜产量 21 万吨，同比增加 16%，环比减少 8%。 1）Kennecott 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_ ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 24 年业绩稳定增长，盈利水平继续提升 [Table_Title2] 杭叉集团(603298) [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报 2024 年，公司实现营收 164.9 亿元，同比+1.3%，实现归母净 利润 20.2 亿元，同比+17.5%。单 4 季度来看，公司实现营收 37.5 亿元，同比-0.1%，环比-10.2%；实现归母净利润 4.5 亿 元，同比+8.2%，环比-20.7%。 ► 内销略有下滑，外销保持增长 分市场来看，2024 年公司国内收入 93.9 亿元，同比-1.4%，收 入占比 58%；海外营收 68.5 亿元，同比+4.8%，收入占比达 42%。公司持续推进全球化布局，强化海外营销和售后服务网络 建设，在欧洲、北美、南美、东南亚、大洋洲等主要国家和地区 成立了 10 余家海外销售型公司、配件服务中心，壮大自营渠 道，实现自有营销服务网络在欧洲、北美洲、南美洲、澳洲、东 南亚等全球重要工业车辆产品市场全覆盖。 ► 毛利率继续提升，期间费用支出加大 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 业绩稳健增长，未来成长可期 [Table_Title2] 新锐股份(688257) [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报 2024 年，公司实现营收 18.6 亿元，同比+20.2%，实现归母净 利润 1.8 亿元，同比+10.9%。单 4 季度来看，公司实现营收 5.1 亿元，同比+30.0%，环比+8.2%；实现归母净利润 0.5 亿 元，同比+28.7%，环比+24.8%。 ► 内销高速增长，外销增长于下半年加速 分市场来看，2024 年公司国内收入 10.3 亿元，同比+35.6%，收 入占比 57%；海外营收 7.8 亿元，同比+6.0%，收入占比达 43%，海外市场在 2024 年下半年增速加快（24 年上半年增速为- 0.8%）。展望未来，公司于 2025 年 2 月并表南美智利 Drillco， 解决市场竞争问题，2024 年 7 月在迪拜成立新锐中东销售子公 司，销售服务网络进一步扩大至中东、非洲地区，预计海外市场 总体有望重回快速增长赛道。 分产品来看： ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 18 日 [Table_Title] Q1 业绩短期承压，新业务打开成长天花板 [Table_Title2] 天键股份(301383) [Table_Summary] 事件概述 天键股份发布 2024 年年报及 25 年一季报。 2024 年公司实现营收 22.27 亿元，同比+26.85%；归母净利润 2.12 亿元，同比+55.59%；扣非归母净利润 1.65 亿元，同比 +31.17%，业绩位于此前预告区间中值，符合市场预期。 25Q1 公司实现营收 4.36 亿元，同比+5.22%；归母净利润 0.03 亿 元，同比-91.38%；扣非归母净利润 0.01 亿元，同比-94.60%。 ► Q1 业绩短期承压 Q1 业绩短期承压，主要系毛利率下滑、期间费用上升、以及非 经常损益等影响。 毛利率：25Q1 毛利率为 11.44%，同比-4.45pct。毛利率大幅下 滑主要系客户结构变化影响，低毛利的国内客户收入占比提升。 费用率：25Q1 期间费用率为 12.05%，同比+1.92pct。其中，销 售、管理、研发、财务费用率分别 ...