Market Overview - From May 12 to 16, the overall A-share index closed at 5107.73, up 0.72% from May 9, while the convertible bond index rose 0.32%[9] - Year-to-date, the overall A-share index has increased by 1.71%, and the convertible bond index has risen by 3.44%[9] Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - The recent U.S.-China trade agreement led to significant tariff reductions, with China's tariffs on U.S. imports dropping from 125% to 10%, and U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods decreasing from 145% to 30%[12] - Following the trade agreement, the shipping sector saw a surge, with the shipping index and port index rising by 7.64% and 4.62%, respectively[16] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to focus on fundamental factors and domestic demand policies, with a defensive stance recommended in the current environment[39] - The consumer sector is gaining attention, while the technology sector is currently underperforming but may present mid-term opportunities[48] Convertible Bonds - The valuation of equity-linked convertible bonds has seen a decline, with the valuation center for bonds priced at 130 yuan dropping to 7.46%[27] - The market for convertible bonds is experiencing increased trading activity, with a notable rise in the number of new issues in 2025[8] Risk Factors - Potential volatility in the U.S. stock market remains a concern, particularly with the possibility of renewed tariff discussions and economic downturn risks in the latter half of the year[2] - The rapid rotation of market styles and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules could pose additional risks[4]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 碳纤维部分提价，关注行业需求边际提升 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）民爆需求高景气，行业集中度有望再提 升，广东宏大、雪峰科技、国泰集团等受益；国家重大工程雅鲁 项目主体工程有望进入开工期，推荐重点工程中岩大地，区域民 爆企业高争民爆等受益；（2）碳纤维涨价，新兴需求异军突起需 求提升，推荐中复神鹰，吉林化纤等受益。（3）重点关注经营韧 性强+超高分红的+扩内需的消费建材品种，推荐东方雨虹、三棵 树、兔宝宝、伟星新材、北新建材等；（4）内循环投资预期变 强，推荐中国建筑，中国交建、四川路桥等受益；推荐海螺水 泥、华新水泥等水泥龙头。（5）国产替代：推荐麦加芯彩，关税 缓和航运需求提升，船舶涂料取证加速未来有望持续国产替代；推 荐松井股份，车身漆国产替代需求旺盛。 ►第 20 周（05/11-05/17）新房、二手房市场短期内整体景气度 不高。（1） 30 城大中城市商品房交易数据：今年第 20 周国内 30 大中城市新房成交面积 1 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views & Investment Suggestions - Significant progress in China-US tariff negotiations, maintaining cautious optimism. The US will suspend 24% tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days while retaining 10%, and China will reciprocate. This agreement signals a phase of easing tensions and may alleviate export chain pressures [2][24] - Three major food delivery platforms, including JD, Meituan, and Ele.me, were summoned for discussions to enforce fair competition and protect rider rights. This regulatory push is expected to enhance service quality and industry standards [2][30] Market Overview - In the week of May 12-16, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index grew by 1.38%. The Hang Seng Index saw a 2.09% rise, while the SW Media Index fell by 0.77%, ranking 29th among 31 industries [1][12] Investment Opportunities - Focus on leading technology companies in China, particularly in the context of increasing domestic demand and technological innovation. Suggested sectors include: 1. Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumption and employment stabilization 2. Gaming industry, with policy incentives boosting domestic demand and overseas expansion potential 3. Film and cultural tourism sectors, with consumption policies aiding cinema recovery [3][25] Industry Data - Top three films by box office for the week include "Dumpling Queen" with 31.914 million yuan, "Hunting Gold: Game" with 27.856 million yuan, and "Life Opens the Door" with 12.039 million yuan [4][57] - iOS game sales rankings are led by "Honor of Kings," "Peace Elite," and "Golden Shovel," while Android rankings feature "Heart Town," "My Leisure Time," and "Honkai: Star Rail" [4][61] - The top three TV dramas by broadcast index are "Bending the Waist," "Huai Shui Bamboo Pavilion," and "A Good Life" [4][64]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the US has led to a recovery in macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting the overall base metals sector [4][16][42] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to remain attractive due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation concerns, with gold prices anticipated to rise in the long term [4][42][43] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in gold and silver mining companies, as well as in base metals like copper and aluminum, driven by favorable market conditions and policy support [17][18][42] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices on COMEX fell by 3.72% to $3,205.30 per ounce, while silver prices decreased by 1.37% to $32.43 per ounce [22][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 617,575.37 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 1,591,307.50 ounces [24] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support gold prices, with a focus on gold resource stocks due to their low valuation levels [4][42][43] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices increased by 0.02% to $9,447.50 per ton, aluminum rose by 2.65% to $2,481.50 per ton, zinc increased by 1.43% to $2,691.50 per ton, and lead rose by 0.93% to $2,000.00 per ton [6][44] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper at 78,140.00 yuan per ton, aluminum at 20,130.00 yuan per ton, zinc at 22,500.00 yuan per ton, and lead at 16,870.00 yuan per ton [6][44] - The report indicates a tightening supply of copper concentrate and a favorable outlook for copper prices due to ongoing infrastructure investments and demand in sectors like electric vehicles [17][71] Small Metals - The report notes that magnesium prices have remained firm due to cost increases and environmental inspections in certain regions [14] - The market for molybdenum and vanadium is stable, with steel mills beginning to procure, although price movements are limited [15][79] - The US has initiated anti-dumping investigations on metal silicon imports, which may impact market dynamics [78]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming period [4]. Core Insights - The tin ore production in Q1 2025 decreased by 40% year-on-year to 3,215 tons, with a guidance for 2025 indicating a 10.6% increase in tin ore production to 21,500 tons [1][6]. - The average selling price of refined tin increased by 20% to $32,495 per metric ton compared to $27,071 per metric ton in the previous year [2][7]. - The company achieved a net profit of 116.86 billion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2025, exceeding its target by 20% [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In Q1 2025, the total production of tin ore was 3,215 tons, down from 5,360 tons in Q1 2024, with onshore production at 1,598 tons (down 51%) and offshore production at 1,617 tons (down 23%) [1][7]. - The production of refined tin was 3,095 tons, a decrease of 31% from 4,475 tons in the same quarter last year [2][7]. - Refined tin sales were 2,874 tons, down 18% from 3,524 tons year-on-year [2][7]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 21 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, a 2.1% increase from 20.6 trillion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2024, attributed to the rise in average tin prices [3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was 148 billion Indonesian Rupiah, up from 93 billion Indonesian Rupiah in Q1 2024 [3]. - The company's total assets decreased by 2% to 12.49 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, while liabilities fell by 9% to 4.85 trillion Indonesian Rupiah [5]. 2025 Guidance - The company anticipates that the average price of tin metal in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, driven by increased demand from electronics and advancements in digital technology [6]. - Key targets for 2025 include tin ore production of 21,500 tons (up 10.6%), refined tin production of 21,545 tons (up 13.9%), and sales of refined tin at 19,065 tons (up 8.9%) [6].

Market Overview - The US stock market has rebounded significantly, leading to a notable increase in valuations, with the TAMAMA Technology Index P/E ratio rising to 32, above the high range of 30[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index P/E ratio has surged to 46, exceeding the high range of 45[1] - The Nasdaq Index, heavily weighted by technology stocks, has a P/E ratio of 39.8, nearing the high range of 40[1] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 36.6, significantly above the historical average of 17.24 and median of 16.04[1] - Due to economic policy uncertainties, high valuations, and rapid increases, the US stock market may face further downward pressure in the medium term[1] Sector Performance - The S&P 500's Information Technology sector saw the largest increase, with a weekly gain of 8.14%, while the Healthcare sector had the smallest increase at 0.26%[11] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.09%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index increasing by 1.92% and 1.37%, respectively[21] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to experience volatility, with indices such as the Istanbul ISE100 and India SENSEX30 likely to face challenges due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties[1] - The Nikkei 225 index's rebound has slowed, with a weekly increase of only 0.67%, indicating potential for a correction[1] Investment Strategy - In the Hong Kong market, after a period of rebound, there is a likelihood of differentiation among assets, with some experiencing corrections[32] - Investors are advised to avoid indiscriminate buying and focus on sectors like Information Technology, Healthcare, and Financials, where structural opportunities may arise from low valuations and strong fundamentals[32]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in a better-than-expected outcome, with a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs and retention of the remaining 10% [4] - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing mixed performance, with some companies reporting lower-than-expected earnings due to various operational challenges [15][16][17] Company Summaries Yuanyuan Group - For Q1 2025, Yuanyuan Group reported revenues of $202.9 million and a net profit of $7.6 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a decline of 24.2% respectively, which was below market expectations [15] Under Armour - Under Armour's FY25 revenue was $5.2 billion, down 9% year-on-year, with an operating loss of $185 million. Adjusted operating profit was $198 million, with a net loss of $201 million [16] - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to decline by 4% to 5% compared to the same period in FY25, although gross margins are projected to improve [16] On - On reported a record Q1 sales of 727 million Swiss Francs, a 43% increase year-on-year, driven by a successful multi-channel strategy [17] - The company raised its full-year sales forecast for 2025, expecting at least a 28% increase, with gross margins projected between 60.0% and 60.5% [17] Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.28% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.52% [19] - The overall retail sales in China for the first four months of 2025 grew by 4.1%, with online retail sales increasing by 11.5% [23] Material Data - As of May 16, 2025, the China Cotton 3128B Index was 14,577 RMB/ton, with a year-to-date decline of 0.9% [34][9] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% year-on-year decrease in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [45]

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - The liquidity environment has shown unexpected convergence due to multiple cash return pressures, with significant fluctuations observed from May 12-16, 2025[1] - Initial phase saw a continuation of loose liquidity with rates declining, while the latter phase faced multiple cash return pressures leading to a marginal tightening[1] - On May 16, overnight rates surged by over 20 basis points, with R001 and DR001 rising to 1.65% and 1.63% respectively[1][11] Group 2: Market Outlook - The likelihood of a return to the tight liquidity conditions of Q1 2025 is low, with a stable rate around 1.5% expected before the central bank resumes bond purchases[2] - The fundamental economic conditions do not support restrictive policies, as the central bank aims to stabilize economic growth and social stability[2] - Since mid-April, the external constraints on monetary policy from exchange rates have weakened, allowing for more flexibility[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - From May 12-16, the central bank conducted a net cash withdrawal of CNY 475.1 billion, with reverse repos totaling CNY 486 billion and MLF maturities of CNY 125 billion[3] - Upcoming reverse repos maturing from May 19-23 amount to CNY 486 billion, with additional treasury deposits planned[3] Group 4: Government Bonds and Bills - The net payment pressure for government bonds has decreased to CNY 397.9 billion, down from CNY 715.8 billion the previous week[5][31] - The planned issuance of government bonds from May 19-23 is CNY 764.5 billion, slightly lower than the previous week's CNY 787.7 billion[5][31] Group 5: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit fell significantly to 1.64%, a decrease of 6 basis points from the previous week[6] - The upcoming maturity of interbank certificates of deposit is CNY 746 billion, an increase from CNY 593.9 billion the prior week, indicating rising maturity pressure[6][51]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The company has revised its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to production interruptions [7] - In Q1 2025, the company processed 160,300 tons of ore, a decrease of 31% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 46.5% year-on-year [1] - The average tin grade for processed ore in Q1 2025 was 3.55%, an 18% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 7.3% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average recovery rate of the concentrator was 75%, consistent with previous periods and above the target of 73% [1] - The average tin price achieved in Q1 2025 was $32,507 per ton, a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 21% increase year-on-year [3] - The estimated all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for tin in Q1 2025 was $16,339 per ton, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 10.5% increase year-on-year [3] - The company held $99 million in cash as of April 17, 2025, and expects to receive $38 million in sales revenue by the end of April 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Production and Operational Performance - Q1 2025 tin production was 4,270 tons, an 18% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 36% increase year-on-year [1] - Tin sales in Q1 2025 were 3,863 tons, a 22% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] - The company increased sales and export volumes by the end of Q1 2025, totaling 4,581 tons by April 16, 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The estimated EBITDA for Q1 2025 is $61.8 million, a 19% decrease from the previous quarter but a 19% increase year-on-year [3] - The company has agreed to renew a $53 million overdraft facility, which requires formal documentation and a $28 million international bank guarantee [5] Operational Restart Update - From April 15 to May 11, 2025, the Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 tons of tin, with production gradually increasing as operations resumed [6] - The first batch of tin concentrate with complete records was exported on May 9, 2025 [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent rebound in the US stock market has led to a significant increase in valuations, with the TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio rising to 32, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio reaching 46, and the Nasdaq Index nearing a P/E ratio of 39.8, all indicating elevated valuation levels [1][12][16] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has surged to 36.6, significantly above historical averages of 17.24 and a median of 16.04, suggesting that the market is overvalued [1][12][16] - The report anticipates that the rebound phase for US technology stocks, which began in mid-April, is entering a later stage, and due to fundamental and valuation factors, a correction is likely after the rebound [1][12][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market has experienced volatility after a period of rebound, with certain assets likely to face corrections due to overbought conditions [1][36] - It highlights that sectors such as information technology, healthcare, industrials, consumer, and finance have not yet formed a comprehensive bull market, leading to potential differentiation in stock performance within these sectors [1][36] - The report suggests that there are structural opportunities in low-valuation assets with strong fundamentals and minimal trade impact, particularly in the context of market fluctuations [1][36] Group 3 - The report provides data on the performance of major indices, indicating that the Nasdaq Index rose by 7.15%, the S&P 500 by 5.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 3.41% over the week [2][4][12] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.09%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.92%, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index by 1.37% [2][4][24] - The report also mentions that the financial sector in Hong Kong saw the largest gains, while the utilities sector experienced a decline [26][28]