证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 2 日 [Table_Title] Eldorado Gold 2025Q2 黄金产/销量环比增加 15.4%/13.1%至 4.16/4.09 吨，调整后净利润环 比增长 59.8%至 9010 万美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 销售成本：2025Q2 销售成本为 1.622 亿美元，环比减少 22.0%，同比增长 26.9%。由于黄金销售量的增加以及特许权 使用费的增加，其中特许权使用费的增加约占生产成本增加的 三分之一。其余成本主要与土耳其（Turkiye）和 拉马克 （Lamaque）的劳动力成本上涨有关。土耳其（Turkiye）的成 本上涨持续超过当地货币的贬值速度。拉马克（Lamaque）的 劳动力成本也上涨。由于 Triangle 矿生产中心的深化，导致运 输距离、设备和人员需求增加，导致劳动力和承包商成本增 加。 净利润：2025Q2 净利润为 1.39 美元，环比增长 89.0%，同比 增长 146.5%。主要是由于营业收入的增加，这主要是由于平 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company's self-owned copper production decreased by 21.0% year-on-year to 176,000 tons, while cobalt production increased by 1.1% to 9,400 tons [1][3] - The company reported a significant increase in zinc production, which rose by 18.9% year-on-year to 251,600 tons, and a decrease in lead and nickel production [1][2] - The first half of 2025 saw a 26% decrease in copper production compared to the first half of 2024, attributed to mining sequencing and lower ore grades [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Q2 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 176,000 tons, down 21.0% year-on-year, up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned cobalt production: 9,400 tons, up 1.1% year-on-year, down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned zinc production: 251,600 tons, up 18.9% year-on-year, up 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned lead production: 41,000 tons, down 7.0% year-on-year, down 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned nickel production: 17,800 tons, down 12.7% year-on-year, down 5.3% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] H1 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 343,900 tons, down 26% year-on-year - Self-owned cobalt production: 18,900 tons, up 19% year-on-year - Self-owned zinc production: 465,200 tons, up 12% year-on-year - Self-owned lead production: 90,900 tons, up 3% year-on-year - Self-owned nickel production: 36,600 tons, down 7% year-on-year - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [3][7][8] 2025 Production Guidance - Updated production guidance reflects a tightening of ranges, considering year-to-date performance and expected full-year results [11][13]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Kinross reported a gold production of 512,574 ounces (15.94 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.1% [2] - The average realized gold price in Q2 2025 was $3,285 per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.0% [2] - Net profit attributable to common shareholders reached $530.7 million in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 151.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44.2% [4] Production and Sales Performance - Gold sales in Q2 2025 were 508,300 ounces (15.81 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% [2] - The unit sales profit for gold in Q2 2025 was $2,204 per ounce, a 68% increase compared to $1,313 per ounce in Q2 2024 [3] - The total cost per ounce sold in Q2 2025 was $1,936, which is a 9.1% increase year-on-year and a 15.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] Financial Performance - Sales revenue for Q2 2025 increased to $1.7285 billion, a year-on-year growth of 41.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.4% [4] - Operating profit for Q2 2025 was $774.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.8% [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities was $992.4 million in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.2% [6] Capital Expenditures and Cash Management - Capital expenditures in Q2 2025 were $306.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [6] - As of June 30, 2025, Kinross had cash and cash equivalents of $1.1365 billion, up from $694.6 million on March 31, 2025 [6] - The company has an additional available credit line of $1.6 billion, with total liquidity of approximately $2.8 billion [6] Development Projects - Kinross is advancing the AEX project at the Great Bear mine, with construction expected to start in Q4 2024 [8] - The Redbird mine expansion project is progressing as planned, with ongoing studies and engineering work [9] - Baseline studies for the Lobo-Marte project are being conducted to support the environmental impact assessment [11]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the gold production increased by 9.8% quarter-on-quarter to 137,200 ounces (4.27 tons), while sales rose by 14.8% to 135,027 ounces (4.20 tons) [1][3] - The average realized gold price in Q2 2025 was $3,223 per ounce, reflecting a 15.0% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 38.0% increase year-on-year [1][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $144.1 million, a 141.0% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 48.7% increase year-on-year [3][5] Production and Financial Performance - Total cash costs in Q2 2025 were $1,075 per ounce, down 9.9% quarter-on-quarter but up 29.5% year-on-year [2][12] - All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for Q2 2025 were $1,475 per ounce, a decrease of 18.3% quarter-on-quarter and an increase of 34.6% year-on-year [2][12] - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached $438.2 million, a 31.6% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 31.7% increase year-on-year [3][12] Growth Projects - The Island Gold mine's Phase III expansion is expected to significantly drive production growth and reduce costs by 2026, with an anticipated average annual production of 411,000 ounces in the first 12 years [7] - The Lynn Lake project has temporarily halted construction due to wildfires, with expectations to resume in Q3 2025 and complete by late 2028 [8] 2025 Guidance - For Q3 2025, production is expected to increase to between 145,000 and 155,000 ounces, with total cash costs projected to decrease by 5% [9][11] - The full-year guidance for total cash costs is revised to $975 to $1,025 per ounce, with AISC expected to be $1,400 to $1,450 per ounce [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In July, the year-on-year decline in property market transactions widened. Both second - hand and new home transactions showed a downward trend year - on - year, with different performance in different city - tiers [1][2]. 3. Summary based on Related Contents Second - hand Housing Transactions - **Overall Situation**: In the week from July 25 - 31, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 1.96 million square meters, with a 3% week - on - week decline and a 4% year - on - year decline, and the decline has continued for eight weeks. The cumulative year - on - year decline in July was 4%, slightly higher than 3% in June [1]. - **By City - Tier**: - **First - tier Cities**: The weekly transaction area was basically flat compared with last week. Beijing increased by 9%, Shanghai decreased by 1%, and Shenzhen decreased by 15%. Year - on - year, it has declined for eight weeks, with a 6% decline this week, and the decline has expanded by 3 percentage points compared with last week [1]. - **Second - tier Cities**: The weekly transaction area decreased by 7% week - on - week for two consecutive weeks. Cities like Suzhou and Chengdu had declines of 14% and 16% respectively, while Hangzhou, Xiamen and Qingdao had increases. Year - on - year, the decline was 8% [2]. - **Third - tier Cities**: The transaction area changed from an increase to a decrease, with a slight 1% decline. Dongguan and Yangzhou had declines, while Foshan and Jiangmen had increases. Year - on - year, there was a 19% increase [2]. New Home Transactions - **Overall Situation**: In the week from July 25 - 31, the transaction area of new homes in 38 cities was 2.44 million square meters, with a 25% week - on - week increase and an 18% year - on - year decline, and the decline has continued for eight weeks. The cumulative year - on - year decline in July was 17%, weaker than previous months [2]. - **By City - Tier**: - **First - tier Cities**: The week - on - week change turned from a decline to an increase, with a 31% increase this week. Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou had increases, while Shenzhen decreased by 13%. Year - on - year, it has declined for eight weeks, with a 24% decline this week, and the decline has expanded by 2 percentage points compared with last week [3]. - **Second - tier Cities**: The week - on - week increase continued for two weeks, with a 23% increase. Qingdao and Suzhou had relatively large increases, while some cities like Chengdu, Nanning and Jinan had declines. Year - on - year, the decline was 12% [3]. - **Third - tier Cities**: There was a 22% week - on - week increase. Cities like Jiangyin, Wenzhou and Ningbo had large increases. Year - on - year, the decline was 22% [3]. Key City Observations - **First - tier Cities**: - **Second - hand Housing**: In the week from July 25 - 31, the transaction area was basically flat compared with last week, with a 6% year - on - year decline. Shanghai and Beijing had year - on - year declines, while Shenzhen had a 10% increase [24]. - **New Homes**: The week - on - week increase was 31%, with a 24% year - on - year decline. Shenzhen had the largest decline at 60%, and other cities also had varying degrees of decline [25]. - **Hangzhou**: The second - hand and new home transaction areas increased by 8% and 27% respectively compared with the previous week, equivalent to 54% and 16% of the 2024 high points [26]. - **Chengdu**: The second - hand and new home transaction areas decreased by 16% and 5% respectively compared with the previous week, equivalent to 53% and 35% of the 2024 high points [26]. Housing Price Observation From July 21 - 27, the weekly listing prices of second - hand housing in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.29%, 0.21% and 0.38% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, they all decreased, with declines of 1.4%, 6.9% and 6.2% respectively [52].

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 本周全球多数市场回调，周内波动加大 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周全球多数市场出现明显的回调，周 内多个交易日波动加大。本周美股三大指数回调，由于是在周 五公布的非农数据不及预期之后，美股出现明显调整。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.5，市盈率处于高于 35 以上 的偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈率仍有 50.4，仍然处于 50 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比较大的纳斯达克指数的 市盈率仍然有 41.2，处于高于 40 的偏高位阶段，由于美股科技 股估值较高存在进一步消化估值的趋势，以及美股大型科技巨 头的新一轮科技风口还需等待，叠加美国经济和贸易等方面政 策的不确定性影响，美股科技股仍然容易出现调整；纳斯达克 指数、费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 等美股科技指数仍然中期 维度仍然容易出现进一步回调。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍有 38，仍然大幅高于历史中位数和平均数。由于美国经济和贸易 政策的不确定性 ...

Employment Data - July non-farm employment increased by 73,000, below the expected 104,000[1] - Unemployment rate rose by 0.13 percentage points to 4.248%[1] - Labor participation rate declined by 0.06 percentage points to 62.2%[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations[1] Data Revisions - Non-farm employment for May and June was revised down by a total of 258,000[2] - May's employment was revised down by 125,000 to 19,000, and June's by 133,000 to 14,000[1] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, the dollar index fell from 100 to 98.7[2] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped over 20 basis points[2] - Gold prices increased by 2.2%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.6%[2] - Rate cut expectations rose from 33 basis points to 56 basis points[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Potential for a 50 basis point rate cut in September due to weak labor market signals[3] - The resignation of a Federal Reserve governor may expedite the selection of a new chair[3] - Market skepticism regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to expectations of a 75-100 basis point cut[4] Risk Factors - Economic, employment, and inflation trends in the U.S. may exceed expectations, impacting fiscal and tariff policies[5]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 15.42, with a median of 13.42 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 13.32, while the CSI 300 is at 12.43[8] - Excluding financial and oil sectors, the A-share PE (TTM) is 22.86, indicating a higher valuation compared to the overall market[6] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.13, with a median of 10.25 and a maximum of 22.67[55] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 21.23, reflecting a significant valuation compared to other sectors[55] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 27.63, with a median of 20.90 and a maximum of 41.99[76] - The NASDAQ Index is valued at 40.98, indicating a high growth expectation compared to traditional indices[76] Industry-Specific Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector has a low PE (TTM) of 18.06, while the computer sector is at a high of 56.09, indicating sector-specific valuation disparities[23] - The banking sector's PB (LF) is at 0.91, suggesting undervaluation compared to historical averages[26] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected corporate earnings results[98] - Market volatility and geopolitical events could significantly impact valuations across all markets[98]

Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy will impose VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity[1] Current Tax Rules - Public funds enjoy full tax exemptions on interest income and capital gains for government and local bonds[2] - Non-public asset management products are exempt from VAT on interest income but subject to 3% VAT and 25% income tax on capital gains[2] Fiscal Intent and Impact - The tax adjustment aims to alleviate fiscal pressure, as tax revenue has seen negative growth in 2020 (-2.3%), 2022 (-3.5%), and 2024 (-3.4%)[3] - In the first half of 2025, tax revenue was 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year[3] Affected Institutions - Banks will face a 6% VAT on interest income from government, local, and financial bonds[4] - Public funds may continue to enjoy tax exemptions, while non-public asset management institutions could see VAT on interest income return to 3%[4] Market Pricing Dynamics - The bond market may experience dual pricing for old and new bonds, with old bonds likely to see increased demand due to tax exemptions[6] - New bonds issued after August 8 may be priced based on similar existing bonds, with a potential markup of 1.05-1.06 times[6]