hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 13 日 证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： PD1/VEGF 重磅数据即将来临，继续推荐康方生物、三生制药 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/4/7-25/4/11） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：4 月 7 日至 4 月 11 日，医药指数下跌 5.61%，相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为-2.73%。本周创新药板块先抑后扬、继续活跃，海思科、一品红、科兴 制药等表现亮眼、创阶段新高，出口产业链受美国关税影响表现较差，血制品等防御品 种表现较好。经过一周的中美"关税"对弈，情绪边际影响已显著减弱，建议关注：1） 创新药出海不受关税影响，继续重点推荐 A 股科伦药业、热景生物、一品红、科兴制药、 恒瑞医药；港股三生制药、科伦博泰、康方生物、中国生物制药；2）国产替代机会，建 议关注医疗器械（联影医疗、开立医疗、澳华内镜、惠泰医疗、微电生理、迈普医学）、 血制品（派林 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Group 1 - The trend of public funds allocating to companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is increasingly prominent, with 440 funds holding BSE companies as of March 31, 2025 [3][7][23] - Among the top holdings in BSE, Jinbo Biological, Suzhou Axle, and Tongli Co. are the three largest by market value, with significant institutional interest [3][23][24] - The BSE 50 Index has shown a strong performance, leading the market with a year-to-date increase of 24% [3][28][34] Group 2 - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for BSE A-shares is currently at 44X, indicating a slight recovery in valuation [4][33] - The average daily trading volume for BSE A-shares has rebounded to 385 billion, reflecting improved market activity [4][36] - The number of companies listed on the BSE is steadily increasing, contributing to a more mature market ecosystem [3][29][21] Group 3 - The report highlights a focus on companies with stable dividends and potential for exceeding performance expectations in Q1 2025, such as Minshida and Wantong Hydraulic [3][29] - There is an emphasis on sectors like semiconductors, robotics, and consumer electronics as key areas for trading opportunities [3][29][19] - The investment strategy is centered around "valuation cost-effectiveness + performance certainty," with a focus on capturing growth opportunities while managing risks [3][13][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the core product CM310 is set for significant commercialization growth, with a strong pipeline of innovative products progressing steadily [5][7] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 696 million in 2025, RMB 1.157 billion in 2026, and RMB 2.247 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 62.66%, 66.21%, and 94.13% respectively [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 428 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, with a gross profit margin of 97.2% [7] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was a loss of RMB 515 million, with a projected loss of RMB 695 million in 2025, but expected to turn profitable with a net profit of RMB 102 million in 2027 [6][8] - The company’s cash position at the end of the year was approximately RMB 21 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [7] Product Pipeline and Market Strategy - CM310 has received approvals for three indications, including moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis, positioning it for rapid sales growth [7] - The collaboration with AstraZeneca (AZ) on CMG901 is expected to enhance the company’s global market presence, with multiple clinical trials underway [7] - The company is actively pursuing diverse business development (BD) strategies to unlock the value of its early-stage pipeline, which includes several promising candidates in various stages of clinical trials [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in Q1, with several brands exceeding expectations, and the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to stabilize and enhance its multi-brand strategy [5][7] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the sportswear industry in China, with significant growth potential through multi-brand operations and overseas expansion [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 62,661 million RMB - 2024: 70,826 million RMB (growth of 16.37%) - 2025E: 78,944.69 million RMB (growth of 11.46%) - 2026E: 87,795.88 million RMB (growth of 11.21%) - 2027E: 96,556.82 million RMB (growth of 9.98%) [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023: 10,236 million RMB - 2024: 15,596 million RMB (growth of 52.36%) - 2025E: 13,500.18 million RMB (decline of 13.44%) - 2026E: 15,559.12 million RMB (growth of 15.25%) - 2027E: 17,142.09 million RMB (growth of 10.17%) [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2023: 3.69 RMB - 2024: 5.55 RMB - 2025E: 4.81 RMB - 2026E: 5.54 RMB - 2027E: 6.11 RMB [6] Brand Performance - The Anta brand recorded high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, maintaining stable operations - The FILA brand also showed high single-digit growth, continuing the improvement trend from Q4 2024 - Other brands experienced a significant growth rate of 65-70% in Q1 2025, benefiting from a high demand in the outdoor sports sector [7] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million is expected to enhance the company's outdoor product matrix and broaden its customer base - Jack Wolfskin's established presence in Europe is anticipated to support the company's global expansion strategy [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in innovative drug revenue and is making significant progress in international markets [5] - The company reported a total revenue of 27.985 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.337 billion yuan, up 47.28% year-on-year [6] - The company is accelerating its transformation driven by innovation, with innovative drug revenue growing by 30.6% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for approximately 55% of total operating revenue [6] - The company has a robust pipeline with 19 first-class innovative drugs and 4 second-class new drugs approved, and expects over 70 innovative drugs to be approved in the next three years [6] - The company has achieved significant results in business development (BD) overseas, with licensing income of 2.7 billion yuan in 2024, including substantial upfront payments from international partners [6] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 30.844 billion yuan in 2025 to 40.483 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 7.005 billion yuan and 9.883 billion yuan respectively [5][6] - The projected net profit growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are 10.56%, 18.25%, and 19.30% respectively [5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to decrease from 44.05 in 2025 to 31.23 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its global layout and emphasizes its IP channel's capacity to capture demand [5] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with a total revenue of 16.994 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [7] - The company completed its annual store opening target, with a total of 7,780 stores by the end of 2024, including 6,504 Miniso stores [7] - The overseas store expansion is notable, with 631 new stores opened abroad, accounting for 58% of total new openings [7] - The company's gross margin reached a historical high of 44.9% in 2024, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in overseas direct sales [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 11,473.21 million RMB - 2024: 16,994.03 million RMB - 2025E: 20,851.52 million RMB - 2026E: 24,818.06 million RMB - 2027E: 29,259.03 million RMB - The expected year-on-year growth rates for revenue are 13.76% in 2023, 48.12% in 2024, and 22.70% in 2025 [6] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 3,123.30 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.3% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 1.42 RMB in 2023 to 2.50 RMB in 2025 [6] Store Expansion and Product Strategy - The company has successfully launched new products under the WAKUKU brand, with a recent release selling out within two hours, indicating strong consumer interest [7] - The TOPTOY brand has also seen rapid overseas expansion, achieving a revenue of 984 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.7% [7] - The company is focusing on adjusting its revenue structure and IP product mix to enhance gross margin performance [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company's main business is expected to stabilize and recover, with significant potential for the gout drug AR882, which is currently leading in global development and may become a market leader due to its clinical efficacy [4][8]. - The company has faced performance pressures since 2022 due to industry procurement disruptions and changes in the market environment, but these impacts are expected to diminish, leading to a recovery in its core business [8][10]. - The global gout market remains largely untapped, with a significant patient base and existing treatment gaps, indicating a promising market potential for AR882 [39][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Business Recovery and Innovation - The company focuses on pediatric and chronic disease sectors, demonstrating stable long-term operations [13]. - Short-term operations have been affected by external factors, but the introduction of stock incentives is expected to bolster confidence in the core business [21][26]. - Continuous increases in R&D investment are aimed at bringing the innovative gout drug AR882 to market [34][38]. 2. Gout Market Potential - There is a large patient base for gout, with clinical treatment gaps that innovative drugs can address [39]. - The existing treatments for gout have notable clinical deficiencies, creating opportunities for new entrants like AR882 [40][41]. - The company’s U.S. subsidiary, Arthrosi, has a strong management team with extensive experience in gout drug development, enhancing the prospects for AR882 [56][60]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have a net profit of -561 million RMB in 2024, followed by recoveries to 199 million RMB in 2025 and 261 million RMB in 2026 [5][6]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 80 and 61, respectively, based on the expected net profits [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [4][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company has transitioned from a local advertising pioneer to a leader in comprehensive marketing, integrating AI technology and establishing a full-spectrum marketing capability [4][6]. - The company has a strong foundation in content production, particularly in variety shows, and is rapidly expanding its overseas marketing services [5][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2005 and has undergone three major development phases: initial growth, expansion and upgrade, and digital transformation [16]. - The company has established a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 39.39% of the shares as of January 2025 [19]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 47.38 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.34%, with digital marketing contributing 97.07% of total revenue [21]. - The company has eliminated goodwill risks, which is expected to support a rebound in profitability [22][31]. Industry Insights - The advertising industry is evolving through four stages, with the current phase focusing on integrated marketing strategies that leverage multiple platforms for user engagement [35]. - The digital marketing market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 24% for overseas marketing from 2020 to 2023 [107]. Key Highlights - The company has a robust content production capability, having developed a comprehensive service model for variety shows and digital content [92]. - The company has received TikTok certifications, enhancing its overseas marketing capabilities and positioning it well in the growing global digital marketing landscape [113].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the copper alloy segment, with expected growth driven by aerospace, medical, and semiconductor sectors [6][8]. - The company has shown steady growth in historical performance, with a projected revenue increase of 12.78% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 1.33 billion yuan [8][10]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and product offerings, which is anticipated to lead to accelerated revenue growth [11][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 1995, has developed into a leader in high-strength and high-conductivity copper alloys and medium-high voltage contact materials, with a strong market position and recognition for its products [21][27]. 2. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit have grown at a CAGR of 20.11% and 23.58%, respectively [8]. - For 2024, the company expects to achieve a revenue of 1.33 billion yuan and a net profit of 117 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.78% and 19.21% [10][11]. 3. Traditional Business Strengths - The company benefits from a strong position in traditional business areas, including traction motor end rings and high-end connector contacts, which are expected to see increased demand due to infrastructure projects [9][13]. - The company is the global leader in medium-high voltage contact materials, addressing domestic needs and exporting to international markets [33]. 4. Emerging Business Segments - The company is making significant progress in emerging sectors such as aerospace and medical imaging, with new products expected to contribute to revenue growth [4][14]. - Projects like the liquid rocket engine thrust chamber and CT/DR tube components are set to benefit from increasing market demand and production capacity expansions [15][39]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.17 million yuan in 2024, 1.56 million yuan in 2025, and 2.10 million yuan in 2026, with respective growth rates of 19.21%, 33.44%, and 33.94% [10][11]. - The estimated P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 74.27, 55.66, and 41.55, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [11].