证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 21 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至 2025 年 2 月 20 日 华源晨会精粹 交运 美对华船舶敌意渐起，中国造船业大而不倒——航运船舶行业系列（八）：美 国对中国海事、造船业敌意渐起。2025 年 1 月 16 日，美国发布 301 调查报告，指 责中国试图主导海事、物流和造船业，认为这压制了美国商业，并暗示将采取反制 措施。从海运贸易角度看，美国是资源出口（气油煤粮）与消费品进口（集装箱货、 汽车）的主要地区，涉美主要船型多为中大型船舶。美国各货种海运贸易量占比基 本低于非华现有运力全球占比及非华新造船全球占比。我们认为若美国对华造船业 采取极端措施，中短期来看，非华现有运力充分满足美国海运贸易需求；长期来看， 美国海运贸易在气运与车运上较高的占比将限制中国造船业在相关领域的发展潜 力，但不会对中国造船业的现有地位产生任何威胁。全球船队老龄化叠加绿色转型 期，绿色更新造船需求持续释放，需要中国造船业的庞大产能。看好中国造船产业 链，建议关注中国船舶、中国动力、中船防务、松发股份。 风险提示：美国对华制裁激进、特 ...

Group 1: Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039.SH) - The company has achieved a cumulative stock price increase of 267.43% from January 2, 2020, to January 3, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 and the Shenwan Construction Decoration Index by 275.42% and 277.34% respectively, driven by three key phases: significant growth in revenue and net profit from 2020 to 2021, continuous share buybacks and increased dividend payouts from 2021 to April 2023, and new leadership since July 2024 [2][6][8] - The infrastructure investment demand in Sichuan remains strong, with public road investment growing from 1239.8 billion in 2016 to 2555.7 billion in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 10.89%, supported by a healthy fiscal structure and strong debt repayment capacity [7][8] - The company has optimized its shareholding structure, increasing the stake in its profitable road and bridge mining segment from 60% to 64%, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce pressure from non-core businesses [8][6] Group 2: Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) - Zhongwei Company is a leading domestic integrated circuit equipment manufacturer, focusing on high-end semiconductor and general semiconductor equipment, with a product portfolio that includes CCP and ICP etching equipment [11][12] - The company has seen significant growth in its etching equipment, with over 700 units shipped in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total shipments for 2023, and is expected to achieve 72.76 billion in sales for etching equipment in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54.71% [12][14] - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with a projected 2024 R&D expenditure of 24.50 billion, representing 27.03% of expected revenue, which supports its continuous growth in the semiconductor equipment market [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation industry [3] Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a structural change in demand, with a significant recovery in passenger traffic expected to surpass 2019 levels by 2024. However, the supply-demand mismatch is leading to increased volatility in performance [4][9] - The year 2025 is projected to be a turning point for the supply-demand gap, with demand growth expected to exceed supply growth for the first time since 2020, leading to improved profitability in the industry [4][56] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Structure Changes - The aviation industry has recovered to 2019 passenger traffic levels by 2024 after a severe downturn from 2020 to 2022. The demand structure has changed significantly, with seasonal effects becoming more pronounced [4][9] - Monthly passenger traffic in 2024 is expected to peak in August with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and drop to a low of 5.3% in April [4] 2. Supply Constraints - Aircraft deliveries from Boeing and Airbus in 2024 are projected to be 348 and 766 units, respectively, which are only 43% and 89% of their historical peaks [4][35] - The aging domestic fleet and changes in fleet management strategies add uncertainty to future supply expansion [4][35] 3. Supply-Demand Gap Reversal - In 2025, the supply-demand gap is expected to turn positive for the first time since 2020, with demand growth projected to exceed supply growth by 0.4% [4][56] - The report anticipates that the supply-demand gap will expand to 4-5% from 2026 to 2029, leading to improved industry profitability [4][81] 4. Investment Analysis - The aviation industry has transitioned from a high-growth phase (pre-2019) to a recovery phase (2023-2024) and is expected to enter a new cycle driven by supply dynamics starting in 2025 [4][56] - Historical analysis shows a strong correlation between profit margins and the supply-demand growth differential, indicating a high degree of certainty in the current cycle [4][66] 5. International Route Dynamics - The recovery of international routes has been uneven, with North America and East Asia showing lower recovery rates compared to other regions [19] - The number of foreign airlines operating in China has decreased, with 29 foreign carriers exiting the market since 2019 [20] 6. Fleet Management Challenges - The average age of the fleet has increased, leading to a potential rise in retirement rates, which could further constrain supply [50][52] - The report highlights that the operational challenges posed by new engine technologies may impact the delivery of new aircraft [48]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [4][7][44]. Core Views - The company has a solid growth foundation in the men's apparel sector, with its core brands, Baoxini and HAZZYS, expected to maintain steady growth. Additionally, other brands like LAFUMA and Kaimiqi are anticipated to open up long-term growth opportunities [6][7][40]. - The company's multi-brand strategy effectively broadens its customer base and supports stable development, with a focus on enhancing brand strength and channel efficiency [6][9][29]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and profit projections for the company are as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 2022: 4,313; 2023: 5,254; 2024E: 5,194; 2025E: 5,656; 2026E: 6,260, with growth rates of -3.11%, 21.82%, -1.14%, 8.91%, and 10.68% respectively [5][44]. - Net profit (in million RMB): 2022: 459; 2023: 698; 2024E: 575; 2025E: 661; 2026E: 738, with growth rates of -1.20%, 52.11%, -17.62%, 15.02%, and 11.58% respectively [5][44]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.66% in 2022, increasing to 14.21% by 2026 [5]. Brand and Market Position - Baoxini and HAZZYS are the company's core brands, contributing nearly 70% of total revenue. As of the first half of 2024, their revenue shares are 32.02% and 35.58% respectively, with HAZZYS showing significant growth [16][26]. - The company has a well-established brand matrix, including mature brands like Baoxini and HAZZYS, as well as rapidly developing brands like LAFUMA and Kaimiqi, which enhance its market competitiveness [6][13]. Channel Development - The company has seen a steady increase in its direct sales channel, which accounted for 42% of revenue as of the first half of 2024, with a gross margin returning to over 78% [36][42]. - The number of offline stores has been stable, with a total of 1,772 stores as of the first half of 2024, including 816 direct stores and 956 franchise stores [38][39]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned favorably against comparable firms in the men's apparel sector, with its valuation being relatively low compared to peers like Jiumuwang and Biyinlefen [7][44]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including its multi-brand operation, extensive channel coverage, and focus on product development [7][44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing hostility from the U.S. towards China's maritime and shipbuilding industries, yet asserts that China's shipbuilding industry remains robust and resilient [5][6] - The U.S. maritime trade heavily relies on non-Chinese existing capacities, which are sufficient to meet American shipping demands in the short term [42][44] - The report suggests that the green shipbuilding cycle presents significant investment opportunities within the Chinese shipbuilding industry, recommending attention to companies such as China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, China Power, China Shipbuilding Defense, and Songfa Co. [6][38] Summary by Sections U.S. Investigation into China's Maritime and Shipbuilding Industries - The U.S. initiated a 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, accusing China of attempting to dominate these industries, which allegedly suppresses U.S. business interests [6][13] - The U.S. has proposed additional port fees for Chinese-built ships and introduced the "Ships for America Act" to increase the share of U.S.-built ships in maritime trade [6][21] U.S. Maritime Trade vs. Chinese Shipbuilding Industry - The report indicates that the U.S. is a major region for resource exports and consumer goods imports, with a significant portion of maritime trade involving medium to large vessels [6][29] - The existing non-Chinese shipping capacity is adequate to meet U.S. maritime trade needs, even if extreme measures are taken against Chinese shipbuilding [44] Resilience of China's Shipbuilding Industry - Since the early 21st century, China's shipbuilding industry has flourished, surpassing South Korea to become the largest shipbuilding nation [48] - The report notes that China's shipbuilding capacity has significantly increased, with a projected delivery capacity of 53.4% by 2024, up from 6.9% in 2001 [38][41]

Group 1: Power Equipment Industry Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the completion rate of the 14th Five-Year Plan for new energy reached 99% by November 2024, with solar power at 114% and wind power at 80%, indicating a strong progress in solar energy development [2][8] - The report identifies issues in grid construction, such as slow delivery channels in the northern regions and insufficient distribution network capacity in the south, which exacerbate the pressure on energy consumption [2][8] - It emphasizes the potential for increased investment in distribution networks and the deepening of reforms in this area, suggesting opportunities for companies involved in distribution equipment [2][9] Group 2: Wind Power and Traditional Energy Sources - Wind power systems are projected to have lower costs compared to solar power, leading to an expected increase in operational priority for wind energy [2][9] - The report anticipates a significant increase in wind power bidding volumes in the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with prices for onshore wind projects beginning to rebound, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for turbine manufacturers [2][9] - The supply-demand situation for traditional energy remains tight, with average system reserve rates expected to stay low, necessitating sufficient traditional power sources to ensure electricity safety [2][10] Group 3: Yum China Holdings (09987.HK) Overview - Yum China is recognized as a leading Western fast-food brand in China, with a total of 16,395 stores expected to grow to 20,000 by 2026 [2][12] - The company reported a total revenue of $11.303 billion in 2024, with KFC and Pizza Hut accounting for 95% of this revenue [2][12] - Yum China plans capital expenditures between $700 million and $800 million in 2025, while also increasing shareholder return targets to $4.5 billion for 2024-2026, reflecting confidence in future growth [2][12][14] Group 4: Tuojing Technology (688072.SH) Performance - Tuojing Technology is positioned as a leader in domestic thin film deposition equipment, with projected revenues of $4-4.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 70%-90% [2][17] - The company has significantly increased its equipment shipments, with over 1,000 deposition chambers expected to be shipped in 2024, marking a historical high [2][17] - The report notes that the global semiconductor industry is expanding, with a forecasted annual growth rate of 6.6% for semiconductor capacity in 2025, benefiting companies like Tuojing Technology [2][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial investment rating of "Buy" for Sichuan Road and Bridge [4][6]. Core Views - Sichuan Road and Bridge is positioned to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure investment in the Sichuan-Chongqing economic circle, focusing on its core business to explore new growth opportunities [4][8]. - The company has a strong market position in the Sichuan province, with a solid financial structure and ample funding support for infrastructure projects [5][41]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.018 billion, 8.637 billion, and 9.538 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of -10.94%, +7.71%, and +10.44% respectively [4][6]. - Revenue forecasts for the same period are -9.08%, +7.43%, and +9.21%, indicating a compound annual growth rate of +8.31% [7][8]. Market Environment - Sichuan province's infrastructure investment is expected to continue growing, with public road investment increasing from 123.98 billion RMB in 2016 to 255.57 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 10.89% [5][41]. - The province's comprehensive financial strength reached 1,938.907 billion RMB in 2023, ranking fifth among 20 provinces, with a debt ratio of only 105%, indicating a healthy fiscal structure [5][57]. Business Strategy - The company has optimized its shareholding structure, increasing the stake in its profitable road and bridge mining segment from 60% to 64%, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce pressure from non-core businesses [5][8]. - Sichuan Road and Bridge maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, which is expected to continue, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [5][32]. Growth Potential - The report highlights the potential for recovery and growth following the impact of the "8.21" flood event, with new leadership expected to drive higher quality growth and transformation [5][36][37]. - The ongoing development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is anticipated to further enhance the company's market opportunities, with significant investments planned in transportation infrastructure [5][51].

证券研究报告 电子 | 半导体 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 18 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | | | 日 | | 17 | | | | 02 | 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 193.21 | | | | | | | | | | | 一 年 内 | 最 | 高 | | | | | | 最 | | 低 | / | 256.99/115.50 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 120,246.90 | | | | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 120,246.90 | | ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 17 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至 2025 年 2 月 17 日 华源晨会精粹 交运 美印加强能源合作，西油东运逻辑增强——航运船舶市场系列（七）：2 月 13 日，美印两方就能源问题达成协议，美方希望通过销售油气弥补美印贸易逆差，印 度将增加美国能源进口，并将让美国成为印度油气第一供应国。美印分别是原油产 需侧主要增量，增加贸易有天然需求。美国曾是印度主要原油进口来源之一，在俄 乌冲突后明显减少。美印原油贸易上升空间在于俄油部分。考虑到俄油对印出口与 西方对俄制裁高度相关，印度在增加从美国进口的同时，是否会减少俄油进口将成 为关键变量。分情景分析 2025 年美对印度原油出口增量：情景一：美印原油贸易顺 应自然供需增长，增量约为 21.0 万桶/日（相当于 10 艘 VLCC 年运量）；情景二： 印度为顾及与美关系，将俄油进口量减少 50%，并转向美国，增量约为 111.4 万桶/ 日（相当于 53 艘 VLCC 年运量）；情景三：西方对俄油制裁结束，俄油完全回归欧 洲市场，印度进口缺口完全转向美国，增量约为 2 ...

Group 1: Energy Cooperation and Shipping Market - The report highlights the strengthening of energy cooperation between the US and India, with India increasing energy imports from the US, potentially making it the primary supplier of oil and gas for India [2][11] - The report provides a scenario analysis for the potential increase in US crude oil exports to India in 2025, estimating increases of 210,000 barrels per day under natural supply-demand growth, 1,114,000 barrels per day if India reduces Russian oil imports by 50%, and 2,018,000 barrels per day if Russian oil returns to European markets [2][13] - The strengthening of US-India oil trade is expected to benefit the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market, as the shift from Russian oil to US oil will increase demand for VLCCs [2][14] Group 2: Public Utilities and Renewable Energy - The leadership changes at major energy companies, such as Datang Group and State Energy Group, are anticipated to drive high-quality development in the energy sector [15][16] - The new market-oriented pricing policy for renewable energy is seen as beneficial for green electricity operations, addressing issues of guaranteed utilization hours and pricing uncertainties [17][18] - The report emphasizes that wind power is expected to outperform solar power in terms of profitability under the new pricing mechanism, as wind energy prices are generally higher than those of solar [17][18] Group 3: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction sector is showing signs of recovery post-Spring Festival, with a reported 23.5% reopening rate of construction sites nationwide as of February 13, 2025 [21] - The report notes that the construction sector has outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 3.3% in the construction index since January 27, 2025 [20][21] - The issuance of special bonds for infrastructure projects has increased significantly, with a cumulative issuance of 711.5 billion yuan, up 79.92% year-on-year [22] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report covers the robust growth of the pharmaceutical company Sanofi, which has over 40 products in various therapeutic areas, with core products like Teva and Mandi showing strong growth [34][36] - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs, including PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies and IL-17 monoclonal antibodies, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [37][38] - The forecast for the company's revenue and net profit from 2024 to 2026 indicates steady growth, with projected net profits of 17.69 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 23.04 billion yuan by 2026 [38]