交银国际研究 | | | 三个月 | 年初至 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 今升跌 | | 布兰特 | 66.64 | -10.80 | -10.65% | | 期金 | 3,240.30 | 12.37 | 23.24 | | 期银 | 32.98 | -0.38 | 14.10 | | 期铜 | 9,534.00 | -2.83 | 9.51 | | 日圆 | 146.32 | 3.99 | 7.41 | | 英镑 | 1.33 | 5.45 | 6.25 | | 欧元 | 1.12 | 6.71 | 8.29 | | 基点变动 | | 三个月 六个月 | | | 基点变动 | | 三个月 六个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HIBOR | 4.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 美国10年债息 yield | 4.53 | 1.19 | 2.03 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | | | | 恒指技术走势 | | | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 23,640.65 | | 50 天 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 14.69 | 美元 | 美元 17.00 | +15.7% | | | 腾讯音乐 (TME US) | | | | | | | | SVIP | 运营及利润释放 | | | 聚焦高质量会员增长，关注 | | | | | 我们小幅上调 2025 年经调整净利润 3%至 89 亿元（人民币，下同），维持 SOTP 目标价 17 美元/66 港元（1698 HK），其中：1）音乐 14 美元，参考可比 优质音乐平台及版权公司平均 20 倍市盈率；2）社交 1 美元，基于 8 倍市盈 率；3）现金 2 美元。我们持续看好在线音乐稳健增长，预计 ARPPU 提升拉动 效果将会高于会员数增加，关注会员权益、粉丝经济及长音频拉动SVIP增长， 看好订阅及广告收入增长、自制内容增加持续促进毛利率优化，股东回馈持 续，维持买入。 盈利预测变动 | | | | —————2025E————— —————2026E————— | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price of $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of $14.69 [1][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on high-quality membership growth and the release of operational and profit potential, with an adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 increased by 3% to RMB 8.9 billion [1][5]. - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) target price is derived from music at $14, social at $1, and cash at $2, based on respective price-to-earnings ratios [1][5]. - The report anticipates steady growth in online music, driven by an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) that is expected to outpace membership growth [1][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 31.177 billion, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates [2]. - Online music revenue is expected to reach RMB 25.417 billion in 2025, with subscription revenue projected at RMB 17.729 billion, both showing slight increases [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 8.905 billion, a 3% increase from prior estimates [2]. Quarterly Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, Tencent Music reported revenues of RMB 7.356 billion, with music subscription revenue growing by 16.6% year-over-year [5][8]. - The number of paying music members reached approximately 122.9 million, with a monthly ARPPU of RMB 11.4, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase [5][8]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 2.226 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [5][8]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is projected to be RMB 7.987 billion, with online music revenue expected to grow by 19% year-over-year [10]. - The report anticipates a continued focus on high-quality membership growth, with a forecasted increase in monthly ARPPU to RMB 11.6 [10]. - Non-subscription revenue is expected to grow by 25% year-over-year, driven by advertising and fan economy growth [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price adjusted from $62 to $50, indicating a potential upside of 34.2% from the current price of $37.25 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - JD US's retail business revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 16% to RMB 301.1 billion. The growth was driven by a 17% increase in electronic products revenue and a 15% increase in daily necessities revenue [2][8]. - The company is experiencing healthy growth in active users, with a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The introduction of the food delivery service is still in a dynamic adjustment phase, but it is expected to partially offset the pressure from new business investments [2][7]. - The report highlights that the food delivery service has begun to enhance platform traffic, increasing user shopping frequency and cross-category consumption, which is anticipated to create long-term synergistic value within the platform ecosystem [2][8]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, JD US reported a gross profit margin increase of 0.6 percentage points, with adjusted net profit rising by 43% due to supply chain capabilities and economies of scale. The adjusted operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [2][8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been updated, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 1,313.16 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 13.3% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 46.21 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.5% [6][9]. Stock Performance - JD US's stock has shown a year-to-date change of 7.44%, with a 52-week high of $47.08 and a low of $24.95 [5][8]. - The report indicates that the stock's performance is expected to align positively with the broader market trends, as indicated by the "Buy" rating [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued double-digit growth in both revenue and profit for the retail business in Q2 2025 and throughout the year, supported by a healthy trend in user growth and engagement [2][8]. - The financial model updates suggest a stable outlook for JD US, with a focus on leveraging its supply chain and expanding its service offerings to enhance profitability [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 51.1% from the current price of HKD 12.24 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 11% to RMB 47 billion. The adjusted net profit rose by 13% to RMB 750 million, maintaining a net profit margin of 1.6% [2][8]. - The report highlights a recovery in double-digit growth for external integrated supply chain services, driven by differentiated solutions and an increase in wallet share from major clients. The express delivery business also saw rapid growth in order volume, although some gains were offset by industry price declines [2][8]. - The financial forecasts for 2025 show a slight increase in revenue projections, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 202.2 billion, reflecting a 0.1% upward adjustment from previous estimates [3][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025E are set at RMB 202,203 million, with a slight increase from the previous forecast of RMB 202,057 million [3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 8,350 million, a minor increase from the prior estimate of RMB 8,336 million [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 10.5% for 2025, slightly down from the previous forecast of 10.7% [3][14]. Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross profit of RMB 21,323 million in 2025E, with a gross margin of 10.5% [13][14]. - The operating profit is projected to be RMB 7,527 million for 2025E, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 3.9% [13][14]. - The report indicates a stable financial position with total assets expected to reach RMB 128,286 million by the end of 2025 [13].

交银国际研究 行业更新 电池行业月报 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 宁德时代 | 300750 CH | 买入 | 314.11 | 257.00 | 14.358 | 15.517 | 17.9 | 16.6 | 3.8 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 行业推荐上，建议仍聚焦三条主线：1）科技创新主线，包括科技硬件（ 半导体、新能源汽车产业链等）、互联网科技（人工智能、云计算等领 域）。2）高股息主线：关注银行、公用事业和电信运营商。3）政策红 利主线：券商、保险等金融服务机构，以及港股优质消费龙头。 | | | | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | 恒指 | 23,108 | -2.08 | 13.25 | | 国指 | 8,386 | -2.02 | 15.04 | | 上 A | 3,537 | 0.17 | 0.67 | | 上 B | 261 | -0.46 | -2.47 | | 深 A | 2,092 | -0.20 | 2.19 | | 深 B | 1,192 | 0.17 | -1.73 | | 道指 | 42,140 | -0.64 | -0.95 | | 标普 500 | 5,887 | 0.72 | 0.08 | | 纳指 | 19,010 | 1.61 | -1.56 | | 英国富时100 | 8 ...

每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 交银国际研究 今日焦点 | 台积电 | | TSM US | | --- | --- | --- | | 先进制程优势在扩大，首予买入 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 176.52 目标价: | 美元 225.00 | 潜在涨幅: +27.5% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 产品周期与供需周期均利于业绩稳定增长。从产品周期角度看，我们认 为台积电新产品单价打破之前上市后逐渐下滑的趋势，公司对于半导体 设计厂商客户的议价能力或在增强，3 纳米工艺芯片或不会在 2 纳米上 市前后降价。 从全球先进制程的供需关系看，我们认为之前以智能手机为主导的先进 制程需求正转化为手机和高性能计算需求竞争供给的格局。我们认为全 球先进制程芯片或进入一个长于之前周期的上行周期，而作为全球高端 智能手机芯片和人工智能加速芯片的主要甚至唯一供应商，台积电或进 一步受益。 进入 2 纳米时代技术优势或继续扩大。我们认为台积电在先进制程和先 进封装技术上的优势或在扩大。我们认为 2 纳米工艺相对之前的 3 纳米 工 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - TSMC's revenue for 2025 is projected to be NT$3.76 trillion, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.8%[11] - The estimated diluted EPS for 2025 is NT$60.8, with projections of NT$69.6 and NT$78.2 for 2026 and 2027 respectively[28] - Gross margin is expected to be 58.1% in 2025, slightly decreasing to 56.8% by 2027[27] Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - TSMC is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for advanced process nodes, particularly in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) sectors[8] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in advanced process technology, with 2nm technology contributing 5% and 12% of revenue in 2025 and 2026 respectively[12] - TSMC's market capitalization is approximately $1.73 trillion, with a 52-week high of $224.62 and a low of $141.37[7] Group 3: Investment and Capital Expenditure - TSMC plans to invest between $38 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, with a capital expenditure intensity of around 34%[14] - The company is expanding its manufacturing capacity in the U.S., with an additional investment of $100 billion for new fabs and R&D centers[16] - The capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be $45.5 billion, indicating a continued commitment to growth[14] Group 4: Valuation and Stock Performance - TSMC's ADR target price is set at $225, based on a 24x P/E ratio for the projected EPS of NT$60.8 in 2025[55] - The current trading P/E ratio is approximately 18x, aligning with the historical average since 2015[55] - The stock is expected to experience a potential upside of 27.5% from the current price to the target price[4]

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 5 月 12 日 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 503.25 | 387.00 | 23.284 | 27.386 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 3.38 | 2.66 | 0.1 | | 吉利汽车 | 175 HK | 买入 | 22.50 | 18.36 | 1.182 | 1.437 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 1.80 | 1. ...