Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (9866 HK) [6][7]. Core Views - The pricing strategy for the new L90 model is aggressive, with the top configuration priced under 300,000 RMB, which is expected to significantly boost sales [1]. - The successful launch of the L90 is anticipated to pave the way for the upcoming L80 model, aiding NIO in reversing its sales trajectory [1]. - The report highlights that despite a 50% rebound from lower price levels, NIO's 2025 price-to-sales ratio remains at 0.85 times, which is lower than peers valued at 1-2 times, indicating potential for further price recovery [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pricing Strategy - The L90 model's starting price is set at 265,800 RMB for the Pro version, with Max and Ultra versions priced at 279,800 RMB and 299,800 RMB respectively. The seven-seat variant starts at 271,800 RMB [1]. - The Battery as a Service (BaaS) pricing starts at 179,800 RMB for the Pro version, with Max and Ultra versions priced at 193,800 RMB and 213,800 RMB respectively [1][2]. Product Features - All versions of the L90 come standard with an 85 kWh battery, L2 level intelligent driving assistance, and Orin-X chip [1]. - The Ultra version features dual-motor all-wheel drive, a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 4.7 seconds, and unique seating configurations for enhanced comfort [2]. Sales Expectations - The report anticipates that monthly sales will exceed the market expectation of 5,000 units due to the favorable pricing and product features [1]. - The management's commitment to aggressive pricing reflects a strategic move to regain market share and improve sales performance [1].

Overview - The report highlights the synergy between the "anti-involution" policy and domestic demand policies, which is expected to drive the Hong Kong stock market to new highs in 2025 [2][5] - The "anti-involution" policy is being implemented across multiple industries, likely curbing price wars and boosting corporate profit expectations [2][5] - Demand-side policies, such as infrastructure projects and childcare subsidies, are providing positive support for market sentiment [2][5] Macro Strategy - The liquidity environment remains loose, but there are warnings about the potential for a temporary strengthening of the US dollar [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be delayed until the fourth quarter of 2025 due to resilient economic indicators in the US [2][3] - Despite the crowded short positions on the dollar, the current liquidity in the Hong Kong market is ample, with reasonable valuation levels providing an ideal allocation window for investors [2][3] Industry Allocation Strategy - The report maintains a "high elasticity" and "high dividend" barbell strategy for industry allocation [4][6] - The internet and AI hard technology sectors are expected to benefit from a slowdown in subsidy wars, with corporate profits likely to be revised upwards [6] - The biopharmaceutical sector is supported by ample funding from overseas pharmaceutical giants and a rich pipeline of innovative drugs in mainland China [6] - Traditional industries and emerging sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries are expected to benefit from improved industry competition dynamics due to the "anti-involution" policy [6] - High-dividend sectors such as banking and insurance are recommended as stable income sources during market volatility [6] Company Highlights - **China Ping An (2318HK)**: Expected to benefit from a favorable stock market environment, with an attractive valuation and a target price of HKD 73.00, representing a potential upside of 35.3% [7][9] - **Link REIT (823HK)**: Anticipated to maintain stable dividends with a target price of HKD 47.70, reflecting an 8.7% potential upside, supported by a favorable consumption environment [15][17] - **OmniVision Technologies (603501CH)**: Positioned to benefit from domestic semiconductor supply chain localization and rising automotive demand, with a target price of RMB 180.00, indicating a potential upside of 48.4% [20][22] - **Alibaba (BABAUS/9988HK)**: Expected to see valuation adjustments driven by AI and cloud business leadership, with a target price of USD 165, representing a potential upside of 40.6% [28][30] - **Xpeng Motors (9868HK)**: Projected to achieve breakeven due to strong new car cycles, with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating an 88.1% potential upside [34][36] - **Zymeworks (6996HK)**: Highlighted for its promising drug pipeline and potential for significant revenue growth, with a target price of HKD 6.60, representing a 14.2% upside [41][43] - **Anta Sports (2020HK)**: Expected to drive high-quality growth through a multi-brand strategy, with a target price of HKD 110.20, indicating a potential upside of 22.4% [45][47]

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes from Board members Bowman and Waller, who favored an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the consensus [2] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating reduced uncertainty, emphasizing that economic uncertainty remains high, reflecting a more hawkish stance [2] - Powell's comments indicated that the Fed is committed to its independence despite external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is still uncertain [2][4] Labor Market and Rate Cut Expectations - Powell dismissed the need for preemptive rate cuts to counter potential labor market downturns, asserting that the labor market remains robust [3] - The dissenting members expressed concerns about labor market vulnerabilities, but Powell maintained that current economic performance does not warrant a premature rate cut [3] - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from approximately 65% to around 45%, with expectations for one to two cuts by the end of 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP showed a significant rebound in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in economic activity [9] - The labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% [11] - Inflation indicators suggest a rising trend in commodity prices, with core PPI and CPI showing upward movements [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) [4][15]. Core Insights - The company experienced a 5.6% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of $3.14 billion. The EBITDA also fell by 8.0% to $980 million, reflecting challenges in sales and a slow premiumization process [2][8]. - The report anticipates a marginal recovery in the second half of 2025, particularly in the Chinese market, as the company focuses on expanding non-immediate consumption channels [2][7]. - The target price for Budweiser APAC is set at HKD 10.15, indicating a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of HKD 8.77 [1][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC show a decline from $6.856 billion in 2023 to $6.176 billion in 2025, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [3][13]. - The net profit is forecasted to decrease from $852 million in 2023 to $741 million in 2025, with a gradual increase to $871 million by 2027 [3][13]. - The EBITDA margin is expected to decline from 29.5% in 2023 to 29.2% in 2025, with a slight recovery anticipated thereafter [14]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.09%, with a 52-week high of HKD 10.82 and a low of HKD 6.94 [6][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 21.61 million shares, indicating active market participation [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, CATL (宁德时代) with a target price of RMB 314.11, indicating a potential upside of 13.4% from the current price of RMB 277.09 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's profitability remains robust, with a strong overseas growth rate. In the first half of 2025, CATL achieved a revenue of RMB 178.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit of RMB 30.5 billion, up 33.3% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, planning to allocate 15% of its net profit for dividends [5]. - CATL's market position is solid, with ongoing advancements in battery technology and steady progress in battery swap station construction [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for CATL are as follows: RMB 400.9 billion in 2023, RMB 362.0 billion in 2024, and expected to rise to RMB 447.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.5% [3][11]. - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 44.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 62.9 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.0% [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from RMB 10.06 in 2023 to RMB 14.36 in 2025 [3][11]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a projected net cash position of RMB 232.1 billion by the end of 2025 [6][11]. Market Position and Strategy - CATL's global market share for power batteries reached 38.1% in the first five months of 2025, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company is expanding its overseas operations, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 61.2 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21% [5]. - CATL is also advancing in solid-state battery technology, with plans for small-scale production by 2027 and potential mass production by 2030 [5]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes CATL's strong product capabilities and global expansion strategy, maintaining its earnings forecast and target price based on a DCF model [5][6].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report anticipates a 5% year-on-year growth in operating profit for the first half of 2025, with core business segments such as life insurance, health insurance, property insurance, and banking contributing stable operating profits [1] - The expected net profit for the second quarter is projected to increase by 13.5% year-on-year, while the first half is expected to show a 6% decline [1] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the underwriting side of property insurance, with a 6% year-on-year increase in net profit for this segment [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The investment return assumptions have been revised upwards, leading to an expected 7% year-on-year growth in operating profit and a 5% increase in net profit for 2025 [2] - The report projects a return on equity (ROE) of over 13% for the years 2025 to 2027, with the current price-to-book ratio for 2025 being below 1x and a dividend yield of approximately 5% [2] - The target price has been raised from HKD 60 to HKD 73 based on a 1.2x price-to-book ratio for 2025, maintaining a buy rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][11] Core Views - The company has entered into a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody, which is expected to enhance its market position and revenue potential [2][6] - The peak sales forecast for the product has been raised to RMB 6.6 billion (approximately USD 900 million) due to the collaboration with Pfizer [6] - The target price for the company's stock has been increased to HKD 33.00, reflecting a potential upside of 16% from the current price [2][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 have been increased by 6% to RMB 20,316 million, with further growth expected in subsequent years [5][12] - Gross profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 18,812 million, with a gross margin of 92.6% [5][12] - Net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 9,372 million, representing a 9% increase from previous estimates [5][12] Market Position - The company is transitioning from reliance on traditional blockbuster products to a strategy focused on new product iterations and international expansion, indicating a significant growth opportunity [6][7] - The stock has shown a remarkable year-to-date increase of 367.93%, highlighting strong market performance [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the photovoltaic industry, including GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) and New Special Energy (1799 HK) [5]. Core Insights - The recent surge in polysilicon prices is attributed to new sales policies that require prices not to fall below production costs, leading to a significant increase in prices from 34,400 RMB/ton on June 25 to 46,800 RMB/ton on July 23, and futures prices reaching 51,000 RMB/ton on July 25 [3]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards and the introduction of green electricity consumption ratios are expected to benefit granular silicon, as only granular silicon meets the new stringent standards [3][2]. - There is a growing expectation in the market for a capacity storage plan for polysilicon, which could lead to a supply-demand balance and prices potentially exceeding 60,000 RMB/ton [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Policy Impact - New policies have led to a significant increase in polysilicon prices, with the N-type raw material price rising sharply due to the requirement that sales prices cannot be below production costs [3]. - The introduction of a green electricity premium of 0.03 RMB/kWh and a 30% green electricity consumption ratio is expected to further enhance the cost advantage of low-energy granular silicon [2]. Energy Consumption Standards - The revised energy consumption standards for polysilicon are set to tighten significantly, with new levels proposed at ≤5/6/7.5 kgce/kg for different grades, which will likely eliminate outdated production capacities [3]. - The potential implementation of tiered electricity pricing based on energy consumption levels could further enhance the cost advantage of granular silicon by 500 RMB/ton for every 0.01 RMB/kWh increase [3]. Market Expectations - There is a consensus in the market that leading polysilicon companies may consolidate remaining capacities and shut down less efficient production, which aligns with the interests of various stakeholders [3]. - The report highlights GCL-Poly Energy as a preferred investment due to its profitability and alignment with policy directions, while expressing caution regarding the photovoltaic glass segment due to the lack of similar supportive policies [3].

Global Macro - The core conflict between Trump and Powell stems from differing monetary policy ideologies, with Trump advocating for low interest rates while Powell emphasizes data-driven decisions based on economic indicators and inflation targets [1][6][12] - The recent escalation in their dispute has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly as Trump has suggested potential legal grounds for dismissing Powell, which could set a dangerous precedent for political interference in central bank operations [1][12][54] - Despite Trump's pressure for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate government debt burdens, the report argues that such actions may lead to increased long-term interest rates if the market perceives risks to inflation or the Fed's independence [2][13][28] Trump-Powell Dispute - The dispute has evolved from conceptual criticisms to operational threats, with Trump actively seeking to find justification for Powell's dismissal based on the Federal Reserve's renovation project cost overruns [7][12] - Trump's administration has faced multiple legal and political constraints in attempting to dismiss Powell, including the requirement for "just cause" under the Federal Reserve Act, which has never been successfully invoked [33][34] - The potential for a "demotion strategy" to undermine Powell's influence is considered unlikely to succeed, as Powell's term extends until May 2026, and he has demonstrated a commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence [38][39][50] Interest Rate Outlook - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely refrain from immediate rate cuts, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts throughout 2025, potentially starting in the fourth quarter [2][20] - Current financial conditions indicate that the policy interest rate is not excessively tight, and the market's response to tariff uncertainties has stabilized, suggesting a return to relatively loose liquidity conditions [21][20] - Trump's claims regarding potential savings from interest rate cuts are questioned, as the long-term cost of financing could outweigh short-term benefits if market confidence in the Fed's independence is undermined [28][34] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining institutional credibility, which has been built over decades of professional operation and crisis management [54] - Any attempts to weaken this independence could lead to systemic risks that exceed expectations, impacting the stability of the financial system and the broader economy [54] - The report emphasizes that the Fed's independence is not merely a technical arrangement but a fundamental safeguard for financial stability and economic prosperity [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, iQIYI (IQ US), with a target price of $2.10, indicating a potential upside of 5.5% from the current price of $1.99 [2][3][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve operational breakeven in Q2 2025, focusing on upgrading its content ecosystem with both long and short formats. The impact of short drama investments on profits may continue in the short term, but improvements in the supply of high-quality short dramas and the release of advertising inventory are anticipated to positively affect user acquisition, retention, and commercialization [2][7]. - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, based on a 10x P/E ratio for that year, reflecting marginal improvements in the performance of key content and the counter-cyclical nature of entertainment subscriptions [2][7]. Financial Model Update - Revenue forecasts for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been revised downwards by 4%, 3%, and 3% respectively, with expected revenues of RMB 27,875 million, RMB 29,126 million, and RMB 30,557 million [6]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to RMB 7.7 billion and RMB 14.3 billion respectively, reflecting challenges in content scheduling and advertising performance [7][11]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The report outlines a decrease in expected paid membership and online advertising revenues, with 2024E paid members revised to 16,879 million (down 5%) and online advertising revenue to RMB 5,413 million (down 2%) [6][11]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 1,242 million, a decrease of 20% from previous estimates, with an operating profit margin of 4% [6][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has a 52-week high of $3.33 and a low of $1.53, with a market capitalization of approximately $1,051.52 million. The year-to-date change is -1.00% [5][11]. Revenue Breakdown - For Q2 2025, total revenue is expected to decline by 8% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 6,621 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 11% [11]. - The breakdown includes a projected decline in paid membership revenue to RMB 4,096 million and online advertising revenue to RMB 1,271 million [11].