交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 8 日 今日焦点 | 全球宏观 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 新一轮关税冲击下的思考：外部压力与结构支 | 宏观策略 | | 撑 | | | | 李少金 | Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 美国新一轮关税出台后，亚太股市遭遇"黑色星期一"。港股周一开盘 后呈现显著跌幅，主要反映了超预期关税政策下市场情绪的进一步发酵。 中国内地方面已于上周公布对等反制措施，包括对美国输华商品加征 34% 关税，为后续关税谈判增加筹码。 宏观不确定因素持续存在背景下，短期避险情绪预计将维持高位，风险 资产面临调整压力。同时，特朗普政府可能采取进一步施压措施，双边 谈判过程可能刚刚开始，在新一轮协议达成前，不确定性将持续存在。 尽管如此，我们认为港股市场仍具备结构性支撑： | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 年初至今 | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | 恒指 | 19,828 | -13.04 | -0.98 | | 国指 | 7,263 | -13.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Weir Shares, and Huahong Semiconductor, while SMIC and Zhaoshengwei are rated as "Neutral" [2][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "reciprocal tariffs" have a profound impact on the technology industry, particularly affecting the supply chain and demand for end products in the U.S. market [4][5]. - It highlights that China is responsible for producing a significant portion of global technology products, including 81% of personal computers and 75% of smartphones, making it vulnerable to U.S. tariff policies [4]. - The report suggests that the demand for consumer electronics may weaken due to rising prices from tariffs, which could lead to increased inventory levels and reduced profitability for tech companies [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The technology industry is characterized by a clear global division of labor, with most consumer products manufactured in China and Asia, which are affected by U.S. tariff policies [4]. - The report anticipates that tariffs will lead to a decrease in demand for end products in the U.S., impacting the global technology supply chain [4]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor supply chain is expected to experience a direct impact from reduced downstream demand, which may lead to a decline in chip demand [5]. - The report notes that while chip products currently enjoy tariff exemptions, there is a risk of future tariffs being imposed [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to be cautious in allocating technology stocks until there are clear signals regarding tariffs and trade policies [5]. - The report recommends focusing on technology companies with strong balance sheets and good bargaining power within the supply chain [5].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 4 月 7 日 全球宏观 新一轮关税冲击下的思考：外部压力与结构支撑 美国新一轮关税出台后，亚太股市遭遇"黑色星期一"。港股上周五因假期休 市，周一开盘后呈现显著跌幅，主要反映了超预期关税政策下市场情绪的进一 步发酵。特朗普政府上周宣布对华实施 34%的"对等关税"，叠加此前已加征 部分，对华关税水平已攀升至 60%+。同时，中国内地方面已于上周公布对等 反制措施，包括对美国输华商品加征 34%关税，为后续关税谈判增加筹码。 本轮关税实施时间与空间分析。从时间维度看，特朗普政府宣布的全球性 10% 基础关税已于 4 月 5 日正式落地，而"对等关税"计划于 4 月 9 日实施，但预 计针对不同国家和地区可能根据谈判进展有所延迟。从空间维度看，美国财政 部长贝森特表示，上周宣布的对等关税在不遭遇报复性反制的情况下将是上 限，后续可能根据谈判进展进行针对性下调，或进一步的施压。 对华影响的初步预估和政策应对： 参考上一轮 2018 年贸易摩擦中的出口弹性，美国此轮对华 60%+的关税加征可 能导致中国对美出口下降超过 30%。鉴于对美出口占中国出口总额的 15%，而 出口对我 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" with expectations of attractive performance relative to benchmark indices over the next 12 months [1][6]. Core Insights - The implementation of tariffs has no significant impact on Chinese automotive companies, while Korean, Japanese, and German manufacturers are more affected. In 2024, China's exports to the US are projected to be only 116,000 vehicles, primarily from General Motors, Ford, and Tesla, with no significant presence of Chinese brands in the US market [4][5]. - The tariffs on automotive parts are expected to drive localization and regionalization of supply chains for Chinese manufacturers. In 2024, the value of automotive parts exported from China to the US is estimated at 99.77 billion RMB, accounting for approximately 13.5% of total exports [4][5]. - Chinese automotive companies are accelerating their global layout and capacity building, focusing on regions along the Belt and Road Initiative, Southeast Asia, and Europe for localization and supply chain regionalization [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Valuation Overview - A detailed valuation table lists various companies with their stock codes, ratings, target prices, closing prices, earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields. Notable companies include CATL (300750 CH) with a target price of 314.11 and BYD (1211 HK) with a target price of 503.25, both rated as "Buy" [2][5]. Industry Trends - The automotive industry has shown a performance trend with fluctuations, indicating a potential for growth against the Hang Seng Index [3]. - The report highlights the significant impact of tariffs on the cost structure of imported vehicles, particularly affecting brands like Hyundai and Toyota, which may lead to increased local production in the US [4][5].

每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 7 日 今日焦点 全球宏观 对等关税"的不对等 宏观策略 交银国际研究 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com 新一轮关税主要内容包括 10%的全球关税和差异化的国别关税 对等关税为累加，即在已生效的关税上再加征 • 方式上，10%关税和对等关税是在此前的关税基础上额外加征的， 就简单的估计而言，特朗普意图加征的关税额度即为贸易逆差与美 国相应进口的比值。按照这一比例估计，对华关税已达到 60%+，意 味着对华关税冲击可能已经到位了。 10%关税落地在即，而对等关税仍有一周时间谈判 • 全球性的 10%基础关税预计在 4 月 5 号落地，而对等关税的执行时 间为 4 月 9 号。从时间上来看，10%的关税会在未来几天内大概率 执行，而对等关税则预留了近一周的时间，可能会有谈判的转机。 与此同时，被加征关税国进行报复性关税的概率较大，尽管关税已 落地，后续局势仍存较大不确定性。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 年初至今 升跌% | | 恒指 | 22,850 | 0.01 | 13 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 23.02, indicating a potential upside of 1.6% from the current price of HKD 22.65 [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable rental income and dividends, but notes uncertainty in property development cycles. The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue in 2024, with a projected decrease of 8.4% to HKD 25.26 billion, primarily due to reduced property deliveries [2][8]. - Despite the challenges, core net profit is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year to HKD 9.77 billion in 2024, supported by gains from property sales and government land compensation [8][9]. - The report anticipates stable rental income growth from 2025 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13%, driven by new projects and improved occupancy rates in prime office spaces [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: HKD 27.57 billion in 2023, HKD 25.26 billion in 2024, and expected growth to HKD 29.02 billion in 2025 [5][13]. - Core earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 2.00 in 2023, slightly increasing to HKD 2.02 in 2024, but expected to decline to HKD 1.90 in 2025 [5][13]. - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with an annual dividend of HKD 1.80 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.9% [5][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 4.03%, with a 52-week high of HKD 27.25 and a low of HKD 20.55 [4][9]. - The market capitalization is approximately HKD 109.66 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 2.84 million shares [4][9]. Future Outlook - The report indicates that the company has HKD 11.53 billion in unsold sales, with about HKD 10.53 billion expected to be recognized in 2025 [8]. - Future rental growth is anticipated from several key projects, including the completion of a major waterfront project in Central and developments in Shenzhen and Shanghai [8][9].

Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot industry is expected to experience exponential growth post-2030, with global shipments projected to reach between 4 million and 10 million units by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.6% to 84.9% from 2024 to 2035, with service humanoid robots accounting for 84% of the market share [1] - In China, the shipment CAGR for humanoid robots from 2024 to 2035 is anticipated to exceed 75%, capturing 45% of the global market share by 2035, driven by policy support and capital investment [1] - China is expected to replicate the success of the electric vehicle industry in humanoid robot manufacturing, leveraging its experience in system integration from the autonomous driving sector to accelerate research and development while reducing costs [1][2] Internet and Education Industry - Companies with strong commercial capabilities and industry space showed impressive revenue growth in 2024, primarily driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3] - In 2025, companies are expected to focus on enhancing monetization capabilities and innovation while exploring overseas growth opportunities to drive revenue [3] Delivery and Logistics Industry - SF Express's revenue for the second half of 2024 is projected to grow by 34% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 30%, with significant contributions from last-mile delivery services [7] - The company anticipates a continued revenue growth rate of 23% and 21% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by demand for same-city delivery [8] AI and Traditional Chinese Medicine - The company is expected to achieve a strong revenue growth of 30% in 2024, driven by both internal growth and acquisitions, with a focus on expanding into overseas markets [10] - AI is projected to significantly enhance the productivity of traditional Chinese medicine practitioners, with a potential revenue increase of 100 million yuan for every 10% improvement in productivity [11] New Energy Industry - The company reported a loss of 3.91 billion yuan in 2024, slightly better than expected, with a significant recovery in polysilicon prices in the fourth quarter [12] - The company maintains an attractive valuation with a projected price-to-book ratio of only 0.20 times for 2025, despite recent stock price declines [12] Home Appliances Industry - Midea Group's revenue and net profit for 2024 are expected to grow by 9.5% to 409.1 billion yuan and 38.8 billion yuan, respectively, with a stable gross margin of 26.4% [13] - The company is set to benefit from the continuation of the old-for-new policy, which is expected to support consumer demand in 2025 [14] Automotive Industry - In March, several automakers reported continued growth in delivery volumes, with BYD's passenger car sales reaching 371,419 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [15][16] - The introduction of new models at the Shanghai Auto Show is expected to further enhance market supply and support the growth of the new energy vehicle sector [18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the internet and education sector, including Tencent, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Meituan, JD, NetEase, Ctrip, Baidu, Kuaishou, and others [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that companies with rapid business adjustments and improved commercialization capabilities have shown strong revenue growth, while larger companies have maintained their leading positions despite a slowdown in growth [5][6]. - In 2025, companies are expected to enhance their monetization capabilities and explore overseas expansion to drive revenue growth, with a focus on new business initiatives and long-term strategic planning [3][5]. - The OTA industry is projected to grow approximately 10% driven by international business, while the e-commerce sector benefits from consumption stimulus policies and low base effects [3][5]. - Local lifestyle services are expected to see revenue growth between 15-20%, supported by platform monetization and operational improvements [3]. - The gaming industry is anticipated to grow by 10% in 2025, driven by new game launches and effective operations [3]. - Cloud services remain a key area of focus, with significant potential driven by demand for computing power and AI applications [3]. - The entertainment sector is expected to maintain steady growth in music subscription revenue, while long video platforms may see effects from short drama layouts [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Companies with high revenue growth (20%-60%) are primarily those undergoing strategic expansion and business adjustments, such as education training, OTA, Pinduoduo, Meituan, and others [5]. - Companies with moderate revenue growth (10-19%) face some business pressures but have other segments performing well, such as New Oriental and Bilibili [6]. - Companies with low revenue growth (0-9%) still outpace GDP growth, with Tencent showing continuous improvement in monetization [6]. Profit Growth - Profit growth for most internet companies is driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with leading companies benefiting from high-margin business growth [10]. - The report indicates that companies are focusing on optimizing their business structures to enhance profitability [10]. R&D and Capital Expenditure - R&D expenses are increasing due to heightened investments in AI, while some reductions are attributed to the scaling back of non-strategic projects [14]. - Capital expenditures for major companies like Tencent and Alibaba are projected to increase significantly, with a large portion allocated to AI-related initiatives [17]. Shareholder Returns - The report outlines various companies' shareholder return strategies, with many focusing on share buybacks and stable dividend payouts [18]. - Companies like Alibaba and JD have substantial buyback plans, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [18]. Institutional Holdings - The report notes changes in institutional holdings, with several companies seeing increased ownership percentages, particularly in AI-related sectors [19][21]. - The report highlights the top companies with increased institutional holdings, indicating a positive outlook from investors [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 42.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.3% from the current price of HKD 33.25 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in 2024, driven by steady growth in patient visits, member user engagement, and doctor supply. The integration of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) with AI is anticipated to contribute significantly to long-term revenue growth [3][7]. - The company plans to expand its operations into overseas markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia, focusing on both TCM and AI applications [7]. - The management has indicated that despite investments in AI, adjusted net profit is projected to grow by over 20% in 2025 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 3.022 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 30%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 426 million, also reflecting a 31% increase [7][13]. - The company has shown a significant increase in its doctor supply, with a 44% growth in its own doctor team, totaling 782 doctors [7]. - The report highlights a shift in revenue sources, with membership income increasing to 42% of total revenue, showcasing enhanced customer loyalty and spending [7]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been slightly adjusted, with expected revenue of RMB 3.96 billion and adjusted net profit of RMB 501 million, reflecting a 1% decrease from previous estimates [6][13]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 30.1% for 2025, slightly down from previous estimates [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a DCF valuation model, estimating the equity value at approximately RMB 9.219 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 42.00 [8]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times for 2025 and a PEG ratio of 0.8 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][18]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operating costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.04 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 2.77 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1.09 by 2027 [3][14]. Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is expected to produce 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, maintaining a production/sales rate of 100.2% [9][10]. - The average selling price for polysilicon is projected to decline further in 2025, with a forecasted price of RMB 37,000 per ton [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin from polysilicon will remain negative in 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years as production costs decrease [9][10]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 6.28 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the polysilicon segment valued at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments valued at RMB 70 billion based on a 5x earnings multiple [10][12]. - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratio is only 0.20, indicating that the stock is undervalued compared to its historical averages [7][10].