Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the demand for same-city delivery services, with projected growth rates of 23% for 2025 and 21% for 2026. However, the average delivery revenue per order may slightly decline year-on-year due to changes in order structure [2][6]. - Profit margins are anticipated to improve due to economies of scale, with management forecasting a profit margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 289% to RMB 79 million, driven by scale effects, customer structure optimization, and operational efficiency improvements [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19,350 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year. The revenue from same-city delivery services is expected to be RMB 11,316 million, while last-mile delivery is projected at RMB 8,034 million [5][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1,374 million, with a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted operating profit is expected to be RMB 293 million in 2025, with an adjusted operating margin of 1.5% [5][13]. Market Position and Performance - The company has shown resilience in its market position, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 6,571.76 million and a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date change of -2.80%, reflecting market volatility [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 42.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.3% from the current price of HKD 33.25 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in 2024, driven by steady growth in patient visits, member user engagement, and doctor supply. The integration of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) with AI is anticipated to contribute significantly to long-term revenue growth [3][7]. - The company plans to expand its operations into overseas markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia, focusing on both TCM and AI applications [7]. - The management has indicated that despite investments in AI, adjusted net profit is projected to grow by over 20% in 2025 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 3.022 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 30%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 426 million, also reflecting a 31% increase [7][13]. - The company has shown a significant increase in its doctor supply, with a 44% growth in its own doctor team, totaling 782 doctors [7]. - The report highlights a shift towards a membership model, with member revenue contributing 42% of total income, showcasing higher annual spending and visit frequency compared to non-members [7]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been slightly adjusted, with expected revenue of RMB 3.96 billion and adjusted net profit of RMB 501 million, reflecting a 1% decrease from previous estimates [6][13]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 30.1% for 2025, slightly down from previous forecasts [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a DCF valuation model, estimating the company's equity value at approximately HKD 42.00 per share, based on a 22x P/E ratio for 2025 and a PEG ratio of 0.8 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth in gaming and education is facing uncertainty in the short term, with a target price adjustment from HKD 14.00 to HKD 10.20, reflecting a potential decline of 2.7% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on the improvement of the education market in Europe and the US, as well as the anticipated recovery in gaming revenue in the second half of the year [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Performance**: Total revenue is expected to decline by 15% to RMB 6,047 million, with gaming and Mynd.ai revenues decreasing by 6% and 28% respectively [7][8]. - **2025 Forecast**: Revenue is projected to further decline to RMB 5,241 million, with gaming revenue at RMB 3,555 million and Mynd.ai at RMB 1,685 million, both showing a decrease of 10% and 20% respectively [6][8]. - **Profitability Metrics**: Adjusted net profit is expected to drop to RMB 530 million in 2025, down 26% from the previous year, with a net profit margin of 10.1% [6][8]. Revenue Breakdown - **Gaming and Applications**: Revenue is forecasted to be RMB 3,555 million in 2025, down from RMB 3,938 million in 2024 [8]. - **Mynd.ai**: Expected revenue for 2025 is RMB 1,685 million, a significant drop from RMB 2,106 million in 2024 [8]. Cost and Expense Management - The company is implementing cost-saving measures, particularly in operational expenses, which are projected to decrease from RMB 3,351 million in 2024 to RMB 2,878 million in 2025 [8][14]. - Adjusted operating profit is expected to decline to RMB 577 million in 2025, with an operating profit margin of 11.0% [6][8]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 5,565.61 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 12.78 and a low of HKD 9.47 [5][8]. - The stock's average trading volume is 1.83 million shares per day, indicating moderate liquidity [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth in revenue, with projections of 23% and 21% growth for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by demand for same-city delivery services and an increase in order volume [2][6]. - The management anticipates that profit margins will continue to improve, aiming for a margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The report highlights a notable trend of scalable profit growth, with a substantial increase in net profit expected in 2024, driven by operational efficiencies and an expanding customer base [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19.35 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year [5][13]. - The gross profit is expected to be RMB 1.374 billion in 2025, reflecting a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 269 million in 2025, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.4% [5][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.40, with a current market capitalization of approximately HKD 6.57 billion [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the same-city delivery service revenue is expected to be RMB 11.316 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 24% [7][13]. - Last-mile delivery revenue is projected to reach RMB 8.034 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 21% [7][13]. Cost Structure - The total operating costs are expected to be RMB 17.977 billion in 2025, leading to a projected operating profit of RMB 274 million [7][13]. - The report outlines a focus on cost management and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [6][7]. Conclusion - The report presents a positive outlook for the company, emphasizing its growth potential in the same-city delivery market and the expected improvement in profit margins over the coming years [2][6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operational costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s polysilicon production is forecasted to be 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease in sales [9][14]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments at RMB 70 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 84 billion [10][12]. - The estimated value per share from the non-polysilicon segments is HKD 5.24, while the total target price is set at HKD 6.28 [10][12]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 34.18%, with a 52-week high of HKD 10.92 and a low of HKD 4.93 [6][12]. - The current price-to-book ratio is 0.20, indicating that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value [7][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price reduced from HKD 14.00 to HKD 10.20, indicating a potential downside of 2.7% [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the short term is under pressure, particularly in its gaming and education segments, with revenue growth facing uncertainties. The AI+ strategy is expected to optimize operational costs, but short-term profits may still decline. The focus is on the improvement of the education market in Europe and the US, as well as the anticipated recovery in gaming revenue in the second half of the year [2][7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Performance**: Total revenue is projected to decline by 15% year-on-year to RMB 6,047 million, with gaming and Mynd.ai revenues expected to decrease by 6% and 28% respectively. Adjusted net profit is forecasted to drop by 25% to RMB 718 million [7][8]. - **2025 Forecast**: Revenue is expected to further decline to RMB 5,241 million, with gaming revenue at RMB 3,555 million and Mynd.ai at RMB 1,685 million, reflecting a 26% reduction in both segments. Adjusted net profit is anticipated to be RMB 530 million, a 56% decrease [6][14]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to decrease significantly from 19.1% in 2024 to 11.0% in 2025, while the adjusted net profit margin is expected to drop from 16.9% to 10.1% [6][14]. Market Position and Trends - The company is navigating a challenging environment, with strategic adjustments in its gaming operations and a focus on cost reduction to mitigate profit pressures. The anticipated launch of new games in the second half of 2025 is expected to support a recovery in gaming revenue [2][7][8].

Market Strategy - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation strategy, suggesting that investors should wait for opportunities for elastic rebounds after recent market pressures due to tariff policies and economic uncertainties [2][4]. - The report highlights that the market is currently lacking a clear narrative, leading to divergent capital flows and a technical adjustment in the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has fallen over 10% from its peak [4][5]. - The anticipated announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. is expected to include global tariffs as high as 20%, impacting all trade partners and increasing global risk aversion [4][5]. Sector Performance - The healthcare sector has shown resilience, with pharmaceutical companies experiencing upward momentum due to strong earnings, particularly in CDMO/CMO companies with significant overseas revenue [7][21]. - The materials sector has benefited from a rotation of funds into high-dividend stocks, with coal stocks seeing gains amid declining risk sentiment in technology and consumer sectors [7][21]. - The consumer sector is exhibiting structural trends, with companies like Pop Mart reporting strong earnings growth, while others like Miniso have seen stock price declines following underwhelming performance [7][21]. AI and Technology Developments - OpenAI and Alibaba have made significant updates to their AI models, enhancing multi-modal capabilities that integrate text, images, audio, and video, which are expected to drive commercial applications [10][16]. - The report notes that the AI infrastructure and cloud computing service providers are entering a valuation reconstruction phase, particularly in the context of domestic chip design companies benefiting from localization trends [7][10]. Consumer Sector Insights - The optional consumer sector has outperformed the necessary consumer sector in terms of profit growth, with a reported net profit increase of 39.4% compared to a decline of 2.76% for necessary consumer goods [21][32]. - Companies in the optional consumer sub-sector, such as Pop Mart, have reported significant revenue growth, with a 106.9% increase in annual revenue, driven by strong performance in overseas markets [35][36]. - The necessary consumer sector is under pressure, but there are expectations for marginal improvements as consumption stimulus policies are implemented in 2025 [32][35]. Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a continued pullback, particularly in the technology sector, with valuations nearing the highs of October 2024 [40][54]. - The report indicates that the risk premium for the Hang Seng Index has rebounded, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and a potential opportunity for investors [54][60]. - The report also highlights that the overall market momentum has weakened, with most sectors entering a lagging phase, except for optional consumer and healthcare sectors which are showing improvement [69][70].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | 均衡配置，静待转机后的弹性上涨机会 | 宏观策略 | | --- | --- | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 特朗普关税政策即将落地，市场情绪延续承压： 短期缺乏叙事主题，资金延续分歧。随着近期内地政策发布放缓，企业 业绩落地接近尾声，叠加科技缺乏重要催化，宏观基本面及估值叙事暂 时缺乏向上突破的逻辑，资金延续分歧，且在部分公司配售压力下，恒 生科技指数连续两周盘整，自高点已回落超过 10%，进入到技术性调整 区间。 关税新一轮冲击，全球避险情绪升温。继上周特朗普宣布对美国进口汽 车征收 25%的关税，美国对等关税调查结果也将于本周落地。由于特朗 普近期在关税立场上再度转为强硬，使得此前关税缓和预期有所逆转， 美股连续调整，风险传导至亚太地区，避险情绪显著升温，亚太地区股 指已多出现调整。 本周市场聚焦美国经济数据、大范围关税的政策措施和力度： 大范围"对等关税"落地在即。市场预测 4 月 2 日美国将公布的新一轮关 税政策，可能包含如高达 20%的全球性关税，几乎覆盖全部美国贸易伙 伴，以及考虑针对特定行业推出专 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Longyuan Power (916 HK), with a target price of HKD 8.00, indicating a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price of HKD 6.23 [1][2][16]. Core Insights - The 2024 wind power feed-in tariff is expected to outperform expectations, and the company's three-year dividend policy is anticipated to be well-received by investors [2][7]. - The company is projected to see a 2.9% increase in net profit for 2024, reaching RMB 6.38 billion, which is 4% higher than previous expectations [7]. - The report highlights that the company's minority interest increased significantly, reflecting a higher profit contribution from projects in the southeastern region [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 37,638 million in 2023, RMB 31,370 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 34,663 million in 2025 [6][17]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 6,355 million in 2023 to RMB 6,425 million in 2024, and further to RMB 6,923 million in 2025 [6][17]. - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 30%, with the final dividend for 2024 expected to increase by 2% to RMB 0.2278 per share [7][17]. Operational Data - The company plans to add a total of 6 GW of new wind and solar capacity in 2025, with a focus on controlling capital expenditures, which are expected to decrease by 18% to RMB 238 billion [7][12]. - The total installed capacity is projected to grow from 35,594 MW in 2023 to 41,143 MW in 2024, and further to 47,143 MW in 2025 [12][17]. - The report indicates that the company’s financial metrics, such as the price-to-earnings ratio, are expected to improve, with a forecasted PE ratio of 9 times for 2025 [7][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's strong growth in 2024 is driven by the continued expansion of innovative drug sales and licensing income from multiple business development (BD) deals [2][5]. - The target price has been raised to RMB 51.00, reflecting a potential upside of 3.7% from the current price of RMB 49.20 [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 26% for innovative drug sales from 2024 to 2026 [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 32,039 million, representing a 13.5% increase from the previous estimate [4][10]. - Gross profit is expected to reach RMB 27,633 million in 2025, up 14.2% from prior forecasts [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 7,118 million for 2025, reflecting a 13.8% increase [4][10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve slightly to 86.2% in 2025 [4][10]. Product Sales and Pipeline - Innovative drug sales are expected to grow by 31% to RMB 139 billion in 2024, contributing over 50% to the company's product sales revenue [5]. - The company has over 90 innovative products in clinical development, with multiple data readouts expected at major academic conferences [5][6]. - Future licensing income is anticipated to become a recurring revenue stream as early and mid-stage pipeline products are licensed to overseas pharmaceutical companies [5]. Valuation and Market Position - The current valuation is considered reasonable, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 44 times the 2025 earnings [5][6]. - The company faces long-term risks related to price competition in the generic drug market, which may limit upside potential [5].