交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 80.15 | 人民币 | 86.00↓ | +7.3% | | | 卓胜微 (300782 CH) | | | | | | | 利润压力高于预期，下调至中性；期待 2H25 后利润回升 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 300782 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 117.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 59.10 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 42,844.18 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 5.13 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (10.65) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 89.92 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 6.23 | 港元 | 8.00 | +28.4% | | | 龙源电力 (916 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年风电电价优于预期，订出 3 年派息政策应受投资者欢迎 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 8.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 5.31 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 20,670.39 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 69.63 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (3.26) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 6.34 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 郑民康 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 916 HK 恒生指数 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 18 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][8][10] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve strong growth in 2024, driven by the continued expansion of innovative drug sales and licensing income from multiple business development (BD) deals [2][5] - The target price has been raised to RMB 51.00, reflecting a potential upside of 3.7% from the current price of RMB 49.20 [2][6] - The company maintains a robust pipeline with over 90 innovative products in clinical development and plans to announce clinical data at major academic conferences [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 32,039 million, an increase of 13.5% from the previous forecast of RMB 28,221 million [4][10] - Gross profit is expected to reach RMB 27,633 million in 2025, up 14.2% from the prior estimate [4][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 7,118 million for 2025, reflecting a 13.8% increase from the previous estimate of RMB 6,253 million [4][10] Sales and Growth Projections - The company anticipates a 34% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 107% increase in net profit for 2024, largely due to RMB 2.7 billion in licensing income [5][10] - Innovative drug sales are expected to grow by 31% to RMB 139 billion, contributing over 50% to total product sales [5][10] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 26% for innovative drug sales from 2024 to 2026 [5][10] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 44 times the 2025 earnings and a price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 2.8 [5][10] - The company’s valuation is considered reasonable for an innovation-driven prescription drug company, with limited upside potential in the near term [5][10]

交银国际研究 交银国际研究团队 2025年4月1日 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 概览：全球不确定性升温，港股以守待攻 | 宏观策略团队：李少金 钱昊 | | | | | | | | | | 行业研究团队 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场要点 evan.li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 | | 四月研选 | | | | | | | | | | 全球不确定性升温下，港股3月呈震荡走势。在2月显著上涨后，港股3月上涨 | 股票 | | | 目标价 | 潜在 | | | | | | | | 代码 | 公司 | 行业 | （LC） | 空间 | 评级 | 风格 | | 分析师 | 概述 | | 动能有所转弱，恒生科技指数已进入技术性调整区间，但年初至今仍领跑全球 | ★QFINUS | 奇富 | 金融 | 58.0 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights that global uncertainty has increased, leading to a volatile performance in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index showing a year-to-date increase of 14.32% despite a 1.49% decline in March [1] - Southbound capital continues to flow into the market, indicating a cautious yet optimistic outlook among investors, with the potential for a rebound if U.S.-China relations improve [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data and policy signals from the Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of April as key market drivers [1] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high elasticity and high dividend sectors, particularly in the AI and technology sectors, driven by domestic advancements in AI infrastructure [2] - The semiconductor industry is also highlighted as a sector with significant potential, especially for domestic chip design companies benefiting from import substitution [2] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, telecommunications, and banks are suggested as stable investments due to their attractive cash flow and dividend yields [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - New Oriental Education Technology is expected to see a 25% revenue growth in FY2025, although its study abroad business faces challenges, leading to a target price adjustment to HKD 46.00 [7] - Green Source Group's revenue is projected to decline slightly, but its electric bicycle segment shows resilience, with a target price increase to HKD 7.16 [8][9] - Kangfang Biotech anticipates strong product sales growth in 2024, with a target price raised to HKD 92.00, reflecting confidence in its pipeline and market position [12][13] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - The report notes that the overall financial performance of companies like Daqing New Energy is under pressure, with a projected 14.1% decline in profit for 2024, but an increase in installed capacity is expected to drive future growth [20][21] - Xiexin Technology is experiencing significant cost reductions in granular silicon production, leading to an upgrade in its rating to "Buy" despite a projected loss of CNY 4.75 billion in 2024 [22] - Longyuan Power is expected to see a 2.9% increase in profit for 2024, with a target price of HKD 8.00, supported by favorable wind power pricing [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Neutral" from "Buy" due to higher-than-expected profit pressure and competitive challenges in the RF front-end market [7][12][13]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant profit pressure, particularly from its new chip production line, which has led to a forecasted decline in net profit for 2024 and 2025. The management anticipates a recovery in profits in the second half of 2025 as production stabilizes [7][8]. - The report highlights opportunities in low-power short-range communication products driven by generative AI and the upcoming WiFi-7 standard, although competition remains a concern [7][8]. - Revenue and EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, reflecting the increased cost pressures and competitive landscape [7][9]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,378 million RMB, with a growth rate of 19.1%. However, growth is expected to slow significantly in 2024 to 2.5% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to decline sharply to 402 million RMB in 2024, down from 1,122 million RMB in 2023, with further declines to 348 million RMB in 2025 [6][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenues of 4,862 million RMB for 2025 and 6,019 million RMB for 2026, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.65 RMB and 1.86 RMB [6][9][14]. Market Performance - The stock price closed at 80.15 RMB with a target price of 86.00 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 7.3% [1][12]. - The company has faced a significant drop in stock performance, with a year-to-date change of -10.65% [4][8]. Competitive Landscape - The management acknowledges challenges from both international and domestic competitors, particularly in the RF front-end market, which is impacting the company's market share and pricing power [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product diversification and the potential for new product lines to maintain production capacity and competitiveness [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 3.47, representing a potential downside of 8.9% from the current price of HKD 3.81 [1][4][11]. Core Views - The company experienced an expanded loss in Q4, with a reported loss of RMB 363 million, which is an 88% increase quarter-on-quarter. This was primarily due to a 13% decline in the average price of photovoltaic glass, leading to a gross margin drop of 11.6 percentage points to a record low of -30.4% [2][7]. - Recent strong rebounds in photovoltaic glass prices are expected to help mitigate losses, with a projected price increase of RMB 1.75 per square meter or 15% in March, and an anticipated further increase of RMB 0.5 per square meter or 4% in April [7][9]. - The company plans to increase its stake in Jiangsu Kaisheng by investing RMB 370 million to acquire 74.6% equity, while its northern glass production capacity is ready for ignition, pending market conditions [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 6,595 million, with a significant decline expected in 2024 to RMB 4,594 million, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [3][14]. - The net profit is forecasted to be a loss of RMB 610 million in 2024, with gradual improvements leading to a profit of RMB 34 million by 2027 [3][14]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain negative in 2024 at -4.8%, with a slight recovery to 1.0% in 2025 [9][14]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a supply-demand reversal, with production capacity decreasing from a peak of 123,000 tons to 97,000 tons by January 2025, which is expected to support price increases [7][9]. - The introduction of new policies for distributed photovoltaic projects and changes in new energy pricing are likely to drive demand ahead of the deadlines in May 2025, creating a short-term surge in demand [7][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 20.80, representing a potential downside of 26.2% from the current price of HKD 28.20 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company's operational and profit growth for 2024 is under pressure, necessitating a rebalancing of its future profit structure [2]. - The core profit for 2024 is expected to be significantly below market expectations, with a forecast of HKD 4.15 billion, which is 30% lower than the previous expectations [7]. - The company has seen a 20% year-on-year decrease in residential connections, which is a major factor contributing to the lower-than-expected profitability [7]. - The retail gas volume growth for the year is projected at 2.9%, below the anticipated 5%, influenced by a warmer winter [7]. - The dividend policy appears irregular, causing confusion among investors, with a projected decline in the full-year dividend payout ratio to 52% from 2023 [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 101.27 billion in 2023 to HKD 102.68 billion in 2024, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 1.4% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decline from HKD 5.22 billion in 2023 to HKD 4.09 billion in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year decrease of 21.7% [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to remain flat at HKD 1.79 for 2024, with a slight increase to HKD 1.89 in 2025 [3][18]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.7 in 2023 to 14.9 in 2025, indicating a declining valuation trend [3][18]. Operational Data - The residential gas sales volume is expected to increase from 9.44 million cubic meters in 2023 to 10.04 million cubic meters in 2024, representing a growth rate of 2.9% [10]. - The company anticipates a decrease in new residential connections, with projections of 2.69 million in 2024, down from 3.37 million in 2023 [10]. - The retail gas margin is expected to slightly improve to RMB 0.54 per cubic meter by 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 20.80, indicating a potential downside of 26.2% from the current price of HKD 28.20 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company's operational and profit growth for 2024 is under pressure, necessitating a rebalancing of its future profit structure [2]. - The core profit for 2024 is expected to be significantly below market expectations, with a forecast of HKD 4.15 billion, which is 30% lower than previous estimates [7]. - The company has seen a 20% year-on-year decrease in residential connections, which is a major factor contributing to the disappointing earnings [7]. - Despite a 67% increase in interim dividends, the final dividend is expected to drop by 30% due to weaker performance in the second half of the year [7]. - The company is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 6% in profits from 2024 to 2027 [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 101.27 billion in 2023 to HKD 111.29 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 3.2% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decline from HKD 5.22 billion in 2023 to HKD 4.99 billion in 2027, reflecting a downward trend in profitability [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase gradually from HKD 1.79 in 2023 to HKD 2.16 in 2027, with a notable adjustment of -32.5% for 2025 [3][18]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.7 in 2023 to 13.1 by 2027, indicating a declining valuation trend [3][18]. Operational Data - The residential gas sales volume is expected to grow from 9.44 million cubic meters in 2023 to 12.01 million cubic meters by 2027, with a growth rate of 3.3% [10]. - The company anticipates a decrease in new residential connections, projecting 2.30 million in 2025, down 14% from the previous year [10]. - The retail gas margin is expected to stabilize at RMB 0.54 per cubic meter by 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.80, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% from the current price of HKD 5.06 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was negatively impacted by the procurement of Domperidone, but there is a noticeable improvement in the neurology segment. The raw material drug business continues to face slight pressure. It is anticipated that the impact of Domperidone procurement will stabilize entering 2025, and new product launches will drive revenue recovery [2][6]. - The current forward P/E ratio is 11 times, with an expected profit CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2027, suggesting that the valuation is reasonable with limited upside potential [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in 2025, driven by stable inventory levels of Domperidone, the rapid market penetration of new products, and the inclusion of certain drugs in medical insurance [6][11]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 29,600 million, a decrease of 1.0% from previous forecasts. The gross profit is expected to be RMB 20,868 million, down 3.8% from prior estimates. The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 4,754 million, reflecting a 4.4% reduction [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to be 70.5% for 2025, down from 72.6% previously, indicating a slight decline in profitability [5][11]. Performance Metrics - The company’s stock price has shown a year-to-date increase of 5.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 7.12 and a low of HKD 4.34 [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 214.03 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 58,227.19 million [5][11]. Pipeline and Product Development - The company is advancing its pipeline with seven new products expected to launch in 2025, including significant drugs that are anticipated to gain regulatory approval in the U.S. [6][11]. - The most notable pipeline product, EGFR ADC, is undergoing simultaneous registration studies in China and the U.S., indicating a strong commitment to expanding its product offerings [6][11].