Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Hai Jiaya Medical (6078 HK), with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current closing price of HKD 13.82 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to changes in the medical insurance payment environment, but long-term growth visibility remains significant. It is anticipated that by 2025, the company will recover with a profit growth rate exceeding 20% as the impact of medical insurance cost control normalizes and new hospital integrations are completed [3][7]. - The report highlights that while the company's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 9%, it falls short of expectations, with a notable decline of 11% in the second half of 2024. The oncology segment remains stable, contributing 44% to revenue, while outpatient services show resilience with a 21% increase in annual revenue [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing expansion through new hospitals and acquisitions, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth in the future. The company is also exploring new business avenues in response to the changing medical insurance landscape, including internet hospitals and self-paid services related to innovative drugs [7][8]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downward by 16-21% and 21-27%, respectively, reflecting the short-term impact of medical insurance cost control on the company's performance [6][7]. - The updated financial projections for 2025 estimate revenue at RMB 4,987 million, a decrease of 15.8% from previous estimates, with a net profit forecast of RMB 743 million, down 20.6% [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 36.90 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the study company is experiencing pressure in its study abroad business while maintaining stable performance in K12 education. The revenue for non-selective business is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin declining by approximately 2.5 percentage points due to slower growth in study abroad-related services and investments in cultural tourism [2][8]. - The company plans to allocate more resources to youth study abroad services, and with cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taking effect, there is still potential for long-term profit margin improvement [2][8]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for FY25E have been slightly adjusted to USD 4,902 million, a decrease of 0.9% from previous estimates. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is projected at USD 5,670 million and USD 6,420 million, reflecting decreases of 2.2% and 3.9% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25E is forecasted at USD 503 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.3%. For FY26E and FY27E, the adjusted operating profit is expected to be USD 656 million and USD 771 million, with margins of 11.6% and 12.0% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at USD 474 million, with a net profit margin of 9.7%. For FY26E and FY27E, net profit is expected to be USD 519 million and USD 620 million, with margins of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [3][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue sources, indicating that the study abroad consulting and preparation services are expected to generate USD 1,182 million in FY25E, while high school education is projected at USD 1,295 million. New business segments are expected to contribute USD 1,268 million [3][8][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 36.90 [1][10][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the study company is experiencing pressure in its study abroad business while maintaining stable performance in K12 education. The revenue for non-selective business is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin declining by approximately 2.5 percentage points due to slower growth in study abroad-related services and investments in cultural tourism [2][4][8]. - The company plans to allocate more resources to youth study abroad services, and with cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taking effect, there is still potential for long-term profit margin improvement [2][3][4]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for FY25E have been slightly adjusted to USD 4,902 million, a decrease of 0.9% from previous estimates. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is projected at USD 5,670 million and USD 6,420 million, reflecting decreases of 2.2% and 3.9% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25E is forecasted at USD 503 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.3%. For FY26E and FY27E, the adjusted operating profit is expected to be USD 656 million and USD 771 million, with margins of 11.6% and 12.0% respectively [3][13][14]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at USD 474 million, with a net profit margin of 9.7%. For FY26E and FY27E, net profits are expected to be USD 519 million and USD 620 million, with margins of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [3][13][14]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 70.90 and a low of HKD 35.40, with a market capitalization of HKD 60,342.20 million. The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 24.62% [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.80, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% from the current price of HKD 5.06 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was negatively impacted by the procurement of Domperidone, but there is a noticeable improvement in the neurology segment. The raw material drug business continues to face slight pressure. It is anticipated that the impact of Domperidone procurement will stabilize entering 2025, with new product launches expected to drive revenue growth [2][6]. - The current forward P/E ratio is 11 times, with an estimated profit CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2027, suggesting that the valuation is reasonable with limited upside potential [2][6]. - The company is expected to launch seven new products or indications in 2025, including significant approvals in the U.S. for certain drugs, which will help offset losses from procurement [6][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 29.6 billion, a slight decrease of 1.0% from previous estimates. The gross profit is forecasted at RMB 20.87 billion, reflecting a 3.8% decline [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 4.75 billion, down 4.4% from prior forecasts, with a net profit margin of 16.1% [5][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue for 2025, driven by stabilized inventory levels and the rapid market penetration of new products [6][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of +5.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 7.12 and a low of HKD 4.34 [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 214.03 million shares, indicating active trading interest [5][11]. Valuation Metrics - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value at approximately RMB 60.89 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 5.80 [7][11]. - The company is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 11 times for 2025, with a PEG ratio of 1.0, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current price of HKD 13.82 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to changes in the medical insurance payment environment, but long-term growth visibility remains significant. It is anticipated that by 2025, the company will recover with a profit growth rate exceeding 20% as the impact of cost control normalizes and new hospital integrations are completed [3][7]. - The report highlights that despite a projected revenue growth of 9% for 2024, the second half of the year may see an 11% decline in revenue due to pressures from DRG/DIP nationwide promotion and slow reimbursement in certain regions. However, the company has shown resilience in outpatient services, with a 21% increase in annual revenue [7][8]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 16-21% and 21-27% respectively. The new revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 4,987 million, down from RMB 5,922 million, while the net profit forecast is reduced to RMB 743 million from RMB 936 million [6][7]. - The report provides detailed financial projections, including a projected revenue of RMB 5,527 million for 2026 and RMB 6,291 million for 2027, with corresponding net profits of RMB 853 million and RMB 1,033 million [13]. Business Growth Drivers - New hospital openings and expansions are expected to provide growth momentum. The company has completed the acceptance and opening of a tertiary hospital in Dezhou, with additional hospitals in Wuxi and Changshu expected to open by the end of this year and next year respectively [7][8]. - The company is exploring new business avenues in response to the changing medical insurance payment environment, including internet hospitals and self-funded services related to innovative drugs, which are anticipated to have long-term growth potential [7][8].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 31 日 今日焦点 | 移卡 | | 9923 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 支付业务边际改善，关注增值服务及海外拓展 | | 评级: 中性 | | 收盘价: 港元 8.36 | 目标价: 港元 9.60↓ | 潜在涨幅: +14.8% | | 谷馨瑜, CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 基于 2025 年 12 倍市盈率，调整目标价至 9.6 港元，维持中性评级。支 付业务边际改善，但全年表现仍有不确定性。关注海外业务拓展，以及 AI 赋能下高利润率的增值服务收入及利润增长。 2024 下半年业绩回顾：移卡 2024 下半年收入 15 亿元（人民币，下同） ，同比降 20% ，主要受支付交易规模下降影响（同比-20%），经调整 EBITDA 同比降 17%至 2.2 亿元，但环比增 35%，主要因支付业务毛利率 优化。 支付业务边际改善，关注增值服务及海外拓展：我们预计 2025 年支付 GPV/收入为 2.45 万亿元/29.6 亿元，同比增 5%/10%，对应支付费率提升 0.6 个基点。公司强化 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 13.45, indicating a potential upside of 17.6% from the current price of HKD 11.44 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's fourth-quarter performance demonstrates resilience, with a strong rebound in photovoltaic glass prices leading to the rating upgrade [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operating cash flow, which doubled year-on-year to RMB 5.91 billion in 2024, despite a projected decline in net profit for the same year [7][15]. - The report anticipates a strong rebound in photovoltaic glass prices due to a substantial reduction in supply and a recovery in demand, with expectations for continued price increases in the coming months [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from RMB 21,524 million in 2023 to RMB 18,683 million in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to RMB 18,695 million in 2025 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to drop significantly to RMB 1,007 million in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1,054 million in 2025 [3][15]. - The company's gross margin is projected to decrease from 21.8% in 2023 to 15.5% in 2024, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [15][9]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass in mainland China fell by 13% in the fourth quarter, but the company's gross margin remained relatively stable due to effective cost control and a higher proportion of revenue from overseas production [7][9]. - The anticipated supply-side reforms and government policies aimed at addressing structural issues in the photovoltaic industry are expected to enhance market conditions [7][9]. - The report indicates that the company's production capacity will be limited in the near term, with only two new production lines expected to be commissioned in 2024, which may contribute to a tighter supply and support price increases [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 20.50, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of HKD 15.60 [1][6][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's engine profits have shown strong growth, with a record high dividend payout ratio of 55%. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0.8% in 2024, reaching RMB 215.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and a net profit increase of 26.5% to RMB 11.4 billion [2][6]. - The report highlights several catalysts for growth, including new subsidies to boost heavy truck demand, strong growth in data center engines, and robust demand for natural gas heavy trucks [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Weichai Power are as follows: - 2023: RMB 213.96 billion - 2024: RMB 215.69 billion (0.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 237.92 billion (10.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 254.83 billion (7.1% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 269.35 billion (5.7% YoY growth) [3][10]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 9.01 billion - 2024: RMB 11.40 billion (26.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 14.64 billion (28.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 16.19 billion (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 17.77 billion (9.8% YoY growth) [3][10]. - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to reach 22.4% in 2024, up from 21.1% in 2023 [11]. Market Position and Performance - Weichai Power's market share in the domestic heavy truck engine market is 38.7%, with a strong performance in high-end markets such as data centers, where sales of M-series engines grew by 148% [6][10]. - The company has maintained a stable market share despite a 5% decline in overall commercial vehicle demand in the domestic market [6][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 11.5x, with a corresponding dividend yield of 6.6% [6][10]. - The book value per share is expected to be RMB 8.73 in 2025E, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.4x [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 31.68, indicating a potential upside of 23.0% from the current price of HKD 25.75 [2][6][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing stable development across its diversified business segments while maintaining its dividend payout ratio. Despite a decline in profit margins, the company has managed to sustain its dividend rate [2][6]. - The report highlights that property delivery increases in 2024 will drive property development revenue growth by 11.8% to RMB 237.15 billion, contributing to an overall revenue increase of 11.0% to RMB 278.80 billion [6][7]. - The company’s net debt ratio is projected to remain low at 31.9% by the end of 2024, with a decrease in average financing costs to 3.11%, the lowest in the industry [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 251.14 billion, increasing to RMB 278.80 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0% [5][7]. - Core profit is expected to decline from RMB 27.77 billion in 2023 to RMB 25.42 billion in 2024, reflecting an 8.5% decrease [5][7]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decrease by 3.6 percentage points to 21.6% in 2024, influenced by a drop in property development gross margin [6][7]. Business Performance - The company’s contract sales amount is expected to reach RMB 261.1 billion in 2024, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, but it ranks third in the industry [6][7]. - The asset management scale has increased by 8.1% to RMB 462.1 billion, with shopping center revenue showing a strong performance, growing by 19.2% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company plans to increase its operational shopping centers from 92 to 116 by the end of 2028, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the operational real estate segment by over 10% annually for the next three years [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 20.50, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of HKD 15.60 [1][6][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's engine profits have shown strong growth, with a record high dividend payout ratio of 55%. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0.8% in 2024, reaching RMB 215.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and a net profit increase of 26.5% to RMB 11.4 billion [2][6]. - The report highlights several catalysts for growth, including new subsidies to boost heavy truck demand, strong growth in data center engines, and robust demand for natural gas heavy trucks [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Weichai Power are as follows: - 2023: RMB 213.96 billion - 2024: RMB 215.69 billion (0.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 237.92 billion (10.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 254.83 billion (7.1% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 269.35 billion (5.7% YoY growth) [3][10]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 9.01 billion - 2024: RMB 11.40 billion (26.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 14.64 billion (28.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 16.19 billion (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 17.77 billion (9.8% YoY growth) [3][10]. - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to reach 22.4% in 2024, up from 21.1% in 2023 [11]. Market Position - Weichai Power's heavy truck engine sales are projected to remain stable, with a market share of 38.7% in the domestic market. The company has also seen a 148% increase in sales of data center products [6][10]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 250.4 billion and has shown a year-to-date price change of 31.31% [5][10].