Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Meituan is increasing short-term investments to consolidate market share amid intensified competition, with expectations of profitability returning in 2026 and a projected net profit growth of 68.4% in 2027 [6][8] - The company's non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to -19.9 billion, 32.2 billion, and 54.2 billion CNY respectively, reflecting the competitive landscape and increased subsidies [6] - The report highlights that while the core business is facing challenges, new business segments are showing improvement, particularly in Hong Kong and the Middle East [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 276.7 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 25.8%. Projections for 2025 and 2026 are 365.4 billion and 433.5 billion CNY respectively, with expected growth rates of 8.2% and 18.6% [10] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is expected to be a loss of 19.9 billion CNY, improving to a profit of 32.2 billion CNY in 2026 and 54.2 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of -145.5%, 261.4%, and 68.4% [10] - The report provides a diluted EPS forecast of -3.2, 5.2, and 8.7 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with P/E ratios of -29.1, 18.0, and 10.7 for the same years [10]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: "Kaiyuan Quantitative Engineering Preferred Gold Stock Portfolio" **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the observation that newly introduced stocks outperform repeated stocks. It incorporates the "SUE factor" (Surprise Earnings Factor), which demonstrates superior stock selection ability within newly introduced stocks[25] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select the top 30 newly introduced stocks with the highest earnings surprise (SUE factor) 2. Weight the portfolio based on the number of recommendations by brokers 3. Construct the portfolio using these weighted stocks[25] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates better performance compared to the overall gold stock portfolio, with higher annualized returns and lower maximum drawdowns[25][27] Model Backtesting Results - **Kaiyuan Quantitative Engineering Preferred Gold Stock Portfolio**: - November return: -0.2% - 2025 YTD return: 45.1% - Annualized return: 22.5% - Annualized volatility: 25.3% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.89 - Maximum drawdown: 24.6%[27][28] - **Overall Gold Stock Portfolio**: - November return: -3.4% - 2025 YTD return: 32.2% - Annualized return: 13.2% - Annualized volatility: 23.5% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.56 - Maximum drawdown: 42.6%[23][27] - **CSI 300 Index**: - November return: -2.5% - 2025 YTD return: 15.0% - Annualized return: 3.3% - Annualized volatility: 21.1% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.16 - Maximum drawdown: 40.6%[23][27] - **CSI 500 Index**: - November return: -4.1% - 2025 YTD return: 22.8% - Annualized return: 1.2% - Annualized volatility: 23.8% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.05 - Maximum drawdown: 37.5%[23][27] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Surprise Earnings Factor (SUE Factor) **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor captures stocks with earnings that significantly exceed market expectations, which are likely to outperform in the short term[25] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the earnings surprise for each stock as the difference between reported earnings and consensus estimates 2. Rank stocks based on their earnings surprise values 3. Select the top-ranked stocks for portfolio inclusion[25] **Factor Evaluation**: The SUE factor demonstrates strong stock selection ability, particularly within newly introduced stocks, and contributes to the superior performance of the preferred gold stock portfolio[25] Factor Backtesting Results - **SUE Factor**: - Incorporated into the preferred gold stock portfolio, contributing to its annualized return of 22.5% and return-to-volatility ratio of 0.89[25][27]

机械设备 2025 年 12 月 01 日 相关研究报告 《人形机器人：情绪向左，产业向右 —行业点评报告》-2025.11.20 《人形机器人的 2026："1-10"时刻开 启》-2025.11.5 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 《特斯拉首次公开明确 Optimus 量产 时间点，2026 年 Q1 前 V3 有望亮相— 行业点评报告》-2025.10.28 人形机器人：量产临界点已至，入场布局正当时 ——行业点评报告 孟鹏飞（分析师） 黄雄（分析师） mengpengfei@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522060001 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 机械设备 沪深300 huangxiong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070005 人形机器人板块持续反弹，布局窗口开启 近期人形机器人板块指数及龙头个股呈现显著反弹态势，资金回流明显，板块整 体步入上行通道。上周（11 月 24 日-28 日，全文同）大盘整体上行，沪深 300 与科创 50 指数分别上涨 1.64%、3.21%；人形机器 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the approval of domestic game licenses, with 178 domestic games and 6 imported games approved in November, marking a new monthly high for the year. A total of 1,532 domestic game licenses have been issued in 2025, indicating a robust supply for new game releases [3][4] - The film market is showing signs of recovery, driven by the success of "Zootopia 2," which has grossed over 1.89 billion yuan in the mainland, with a projected final box office of 4.263 billion yuan. Upcoming films are expected to further boost box office revenues [4][5] - The report emphasizes the ongoing development and commercialization of AI applications, particularly in gaming, advertising, and content creation, suggesting continued investment in these sectors [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Data Overview - "仙逆 H5" ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while "和平精英" leads the iOS revenue chart as of November 29, 2025 [10][14] - The report notes that "明日方舟：终末地" is the top-ranked game in the Android pre-registration chart, and "逆战：未来" leads the iOS pre-registration chart [21][23] Industry News Overview - The report discusses advancements in AI models, including the release of Claude Opus 4.5, which enhances coding and agent capabilities, and the rapid deployment of AI products by Alibaba [31][32] - The gaming market remains vibrant, with a notable increase in the issuance of domestic game licenses, indicating sustained high demand [31][32] Company Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in AI gaming, AI advertising, AI animation, AI e-commerce, and AI design sectors, highlighting key companies such as 恺英网络, 巨人网络, and 腾讯控股 as beneficiaries [3][4]

Macro Economic Overview - Manufacturing and construction sectors show signs of low-level recovery, while the service sector is weakening, as indicated by the November PMI data [3][5] - The PMI for manufacturing increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with improvements in new orders and export orders [3][4] - The construction PMI improved by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, supported by the acceleration of special bond issuance [5][6] Corporate Profit Trends - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative profit of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, down from 3.2% [8][9] - October saw a significant decline in profits, with a year-on-year drop of 5.5%, attributed to a high base effect and rising costs [9][10] - The profit structure indicates a shift, with midstream profits increasing while upstream profits are declining [11][41] Investment Strategies - The report suggests early positioning for the upcoming spring market rally, with December being a crucial macroeconomic window [14][15] - Growth style is expected to continue, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [19][27] - The report highlights the potential of small-cap stocks, particularly in a liquidity-rich environment [18][22] Sector-Specific Insights - The real estate sector is seeing a shift towards infrastructure REITs, with a notable performance in affordable housing REITs [3][5] - The coal mining sector is experiencing price stability, with coal prices expected to remain firm [3][5] - The pharmaceutical sector is advancing rapidly in clinical trials for PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies, with four candidates entering registration trials [3][5] ETF and Index Performance - The report discusses the core investment value of the China Securities 2000 Enhanced Strategy ETF, emphasizing its growth potential and resilience [20][21] - The index is characterized by high growth and elasticity, particularly benefiting from liquidity easing and stimulus policies [21][22] Financial Engineering and Asset Allocation - The report recommends a multi-asset allocation strategy favoring short-term bonds, undervalued convertible bonds, and gold assets [55][56] - The bond market is expected to experience upward pressure on yields, with a shift in asset allocation from safe-haven assets to risk assets [43][48]

Group 1: Market Overview - The control rights trading activity has significantly increased post "Merger Six Rules," with nearly 40% of transactions completed[2] - A total of 118 new control rights transactions have been disclosed since the implementation of "Merger Six Rules," more than doubling the previous year's figures[2] - The average monthly disclosure of new transactions has reached nearly 10 cases since the rules were enacted[12] Group 2: Seller Characteristics - Over 40% of the companies involved in control rights transactions have a market capitalization below 3 billion yuan[3] - The majority of transactions are concentrated in the main board and ChiNext, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board becoming increasingly active[3] - Private enterprises account for over 70% of the control rights transactions, indicating a strong presence in the market[17] Group 3: Buyer Characteristics - The number of unicorn buyers has been increasing, with new models like "State-owned + Industry" emerging for acquisitions[3] - There have been 6 cases of unicorn companies acquiring control rights of listed companies since the implementation of the new rules[28] - Private equity funds have also begun to participate, with 2 cases of control rights acquisition reported[27] Group 4: Investment Insights - Control rights transactions involving leading star enterprises and large industrial capital are recommended for long-term attention due to their potential for performance improvement[4] - In 2025, the top two performing A-share companies have both undergone control rights changes, with cumulative increases of 1,607.71% and 1,076.80% respectively[34] - The success of control rights transactions is closely tied to the ability to create sustainable, endogenous growth for the listed companies involved[38]

Group 1 - The hydrogen energy industry in China is entering a critical development phase, transitioning from pilot exploration to demonstration applications, with expectations for intensified market competition, accelerated technological innovation, expanded application scenarios, and faster commercial models during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][12][16] - The market size of China's hydrogen fuel cell sector grew from 1.63 billion to 3.93 billion yuan from 2019 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.61%. It is projected to reach 5.99 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.4% [3][17][20] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) hosts multiple hydrogen-related companies covering the entire industry chain, including hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and fuel cell applications [4][30][24] - Key companies in the hydrogen production segment include Silane Technology and Qilu Huaxin; in hydrogen storage, Jilin Carbon Valley and New Weiling; in hydrogen transportation, Tress and Haitai New Energy; and in application, Ningxin New Materials, Oriental Carbon, Kaida Catalysis, Litong Technology, Fangsheng Co., and Shichang Co. [4][30][24] Group 3 - The hydrogen energy downstream applications are showing a "blooming" trend, expanding into various fields such as transportation, chemicals, metallurgy, electricity (energy storage), and construction [3][16] - The production and consumption of hydrogen are primarily concentrated in traditional heavy industrial regions such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Shanxi, with significant consumption in synthetic methanol and ammonia [13][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The infrastructure REITs are expected to expand further, promoting high-quality development in the REITs market. The National Development and Reform Commission has announced plans to broaden the scope of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities [5][13] - The REITs market is experiencing a decline in trading volume and value, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 19.83% in trading volume and 5.86% in trading value [27][29] - Despite recent declines, the REITs sector is anticipated to benefit from lower bond market interest rates and increased policy support, enhancing its attractiveness as a high-dividend, low-risk asset class [4][6] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI REITs closing index for week 48 of 2025 was 809.07, up 6.07% year-on-year but down 0.14% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index was 1040.34, up 12.01% year-on-year but down 0.08% month-on-month [6][15][20] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs closing index has increased by 6.96%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 31.93%, resulting in an excess return of -24.97% [15][20] Weekly Performance - In week 48, the weekly performance of various REITs sectors showed that affordable housing REITs increased by 1.04%, while other sectors like environmental, highway, industrial park, warehousing logistics, energy, and consumer REITs experienced declines [37][54] - Monthly performance for affordable housing REITs showed a decrease of 0.88%, with other sectors also reporting negative changes [37] Primary Tracking - There are currently 13 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating an active issuance market. Notable funds include Ping An Xi'an High-tech Industrial Park and Dongfang Hong Tunnel Intelligent Operation Highway REITs, which have submitted their initial applications [7][54] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, suggesting that the REITs sector presents good investment opportunities amid ongoing policy support and market dynamics [4][5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The HFCs industry is operating steadily, with unchanged trends and clear opportunities [4] - The fluorochemical index increased by 4.59%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.19% [6][28] - The fluorochemical industry is entering a long prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - As of November 28, the average market price for 97% wet fluorite is 3,346 CNY/ton, down 0.65% from the previous week [20][37] - The average price for November is 3,398 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.76% [20][37] - The average price for 2025 is projected at 3,498 CNY/ton, down 1.34% from 2024 [20][37] 2. Refrigerant Market Trends - As of November 28, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 55,500 CNY/ton, R410a at 53,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton [22] - The market for R134a is supported by centralized procurement, with prices expected to rise [9][23] - R125 is experiencing tight supply due to limited remaining quotas, maintaining prices around 46,000 CNY/ton [9][23] 3. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended stocks include: Jinshi Resources (fluorite), Juhua Co. (refrigerants, fluororesins), Sanmei Co. (refrigerants), and Haohua Technology (refrigerants, fluororesins, fine fluorochemicals) [11][25] - Other beneficiary companies include Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhou Bang [11][25] 4. Recent Industry Developments - A safety incident at a U.S. R134a plant may impact future production [10] - Haohua Technology has successfully launched its trifluoride nitrogen project [10]

Group 1 - The average return of 11 theme funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) reached 52.12% in 2025, indicating a strong performance and potential for diversified investor participation as the two-year fixed-open products become available for subscription and redemption [1][19][20] - The number of public fund institutions investing in BSE stocks increased to 29 by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 31.82%, with the number of heavily invested companies rising from 34 to 41 in the first three quarters of 2025 [11][12] - The BSE's market performance shows a shift towards diversified investment styles, with a focus on emerging industries such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and robotics [1][31] Group 2 - The BSE 50 Index reported a value of 1,387.70 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75%, while the BSE specialized and new index reached 2,317.70 points, up 0.79% [2][43] - The TTM PE ratios for various sectors on the BSE include high-end equipment at 38.37X, information technology at 84.54X, and chemical new materials at 42.21X, indicating sector-specific valuation trends [2][33] - The top ten companies by market value held by funds on the BSE as of Q3 2025 include Jinbo Bio, Naconoer, and Better Energy, with significant changes in holdings reflecting market dynamics [22][23][24] Group 3 - The BSE's passive index fund scale has seen significant growth, with the BSE 50 Index fund size reaching 128.93 billion yuan by November 28, 2025, and the number of tracking products increasing to 68 [13][16] - The fund holdings on the BSE show that 59.17% of companies have a market value between 2-5 billion yuan, while 49.17% of companies reported a net profit of less than 50 million yuan in 2024 [27][29] - The industry allocation preferences of funds on the BSE are similar to those on the dual innovation board, with the top five sectors being machinery, hardware equipment, electrical equipment, automotive parts, and software services [31][32]