其 他 报 告 2025年06月03日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3347 | -0.47 | -0.03 | | 深证成份指数 | 10041 | -0.85 | -0.91 | | 沪深300指数 | 3840 | -0.48 | -1.08 | | 创业板指数 | 1993 | -0.96 | -1.40 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.04 | -0.04 | | 上证基金指数 | 6903 | -0.05 | -0.04 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23158 | -0.57 | -1.32 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8359 | -0.86 | -1.77 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21003 | -1.61 | -1.41 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42270 | 0. ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Stronger than the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Macro - sentiment improvement will boost oil prices in the short term, but OPEC+ production increases will still suppress medium - to long - term oil prices. OPEC+ production increase rhythm is advancing, and there are still concerns about an oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oil Price Review - In May 2025, international oil prices first fluctuated higher and then stabilized. Key influencing events included OPEC+ agreeing to continue increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in June on May 3, the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11, and the Iranian deputy foreign minister's statement on May 19 about the nuclear negotiation with the US [4] International Oil Price Outlook - **Institutional Forecast**: Oil production growth exceeds demand growth. EIA expects that inventory increases will cause the average Brent crude oil price to drop to $62 per barrel in the second half of 2025 and $59 per barrel in 2026 [8] - **This Report's Forecast**: US commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories are accumulating. After the US summer travel season starts at the end of May, gasoline and jet fuel demand may pick up. European industrial demand is weak. China's crude oil production increased in April 2025, while processing volume decreased. The report expects that Brent oil prices will have some support at $60 per barrel in Q2 2025, but the oil price outlook is bearish in the medium term due to OPEC+ production increases [8][52] OPEC Analysis - **Overall Production Plan**: In April 2025, OPEC 12 - country crude oil production was 26,712 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 61 thousand barrels per day month - on - month. OPEC+ (excluding quota - free countries) production was 35,461 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 25 thousand barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 412,000 barrels per day in June, and some over - producing countries have compensation - based production cut plans, so short - term supply is stable [9] - **Non - OPEC DoC Production**: In April 2025, Non - OPEC DoC crude oil production was 14,205 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 43 thousand barrels per day month - on - month, mainly due to a 41 - thousand - barrel - per - day decrease in Kazakhstan's production. Non - DoC countries' production is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, mainly driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina [18] - **Drilling Activity**: In April 2025, the global total number of drilling rigs was 1,687, a significant decrease of 70 month - on - month. Canada's oil rig count decreased by 56, mainly due to seasonal factors, while the US oil rig count decreased by 6. US new well - drilling numbers remained unchanged, completed well numbers declined, and inventory well numbers increased slightly [24] - **Global Oil Demand Forecast**: OPEC slightly lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2025 - 2026. In 2025, global oil demand is expected to be 105.0 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to be 106.3 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.28 million barrels per day year - on - year [25] EIA Analysis - **Inventory Forecast**: EIA expects that from Q2 2025, global crude oil will experience significant inventory accumulation. In 2025, the supply - demand gap is expected to be +420,000 barrels per day, and in 2026, it is expected to be +820,000 barrels per day [28] - **Supply Increment**: OPEC+ will gradually exit the voluntary production cut agreement, and production will resume growth. The US, Canada, and other American countries will contribute to supply growth in the forecast period [32] - **Demand Forecast**: EIA forecasts that in 2025, global oil demand will be 103.71 million barrels per day, an increase of 970,000 barrels per day year - on - year; in 2026, it will be 104.61 million barrels per day, an increase of 900,000 barrels per day year - on - year. China and India are the main sources of global oil consumption growth [35] IEA Analysis - **Supply Forecast**: Non - OPEC+ producers' production is expected to continue to increase significantly. In 2025, global oil supply is expected to increase by about 1.6 million barrels per day year - on - year, and in 2026, it will increase by 970,000 barrels per day year - on - year [36] - **Demand Forecast**: The growth rate of global oil demand is expected to decline. In 2025, it is expected to increase by 740,000 barrels per day year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to increase by 760,000 barrels per day year - on - year. Emerging economies are the main driving force for growth [40] Investment Suggestion - The report expects that Brent oil prices will have support at $60 per barrel in Q2 2025, but the medium - term oil price outlook is bearish. It is recommended to pay attention to leading domestic oil companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit of 0.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.4% [3][5]. - The company is expected to increase its pure electric vehicle offerings in the second half of the year, with the launch of two new models, i8 and i6, anticipated to drive growth [5][6]. - The successful launch of MEGA Home has exceeded expectations, contributing positively to the company's outlook for new electric vehicle models [5][6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 169.22 billion yuan, 230.91 billion yuan, and 271.86 billion yuan, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 17.1%, 36.5%, and 17.7% [4][10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.73 billion yuan, 17.4 billion yuan, and 22.62 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 33.5%, 62.2%, and 30.0% [4][10]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The company is projected to maintain a gross margin of around 20.8% in 2025, with a net margin of 6.3% [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The diluted EPS is expected to be 5.01 yuan in 2025, increasing to 10.57 yuan by 2027 [4][10]. Operational Insights - The company achieved a stable gross margin of 19.8% in Q1 2025 despite a slight decline in average selling price (ASP) per vehicle [5]. - Cost control measures have led to a reduction in R&D and sales management expenses, contributing to a positive operating profit in Q1 2025 [5][6]. - The company plans to enhance its production capacity, aiming for a monthly delivery rate of 2,500 to 3,000 units by July [5].

Group 1: Equity Market Trends - As of Q1 2025, the National Team holds approximately CNY 3.89 trillion in stocks, with ETF holdings reaching about CNY 1.06 trillion by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in ETF allocation[19] - Insurance funds' equity investments accounted for 4.77% of the total A-share market capitalization by the end of 2024, indicating a growing trend in long-term investments[4] - Foreign capital's A-share holdings have remained stable since the beginning of 2025, following a notable increase in September 2024, driven by global capital reassessing Chinese assets[4] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - Commercial banks remain the largest participants in the bond market, with bond holdings valued at approximately CNY 90.48 trillion as of Q1 2025, reflecting a 2.48% increase from the end of 2024[15] - Insurance institutions have also increased their bond investments, with total bond investment reaching about CNY 15.9 trillion by the end of Q4 2024[15] - Foreign investment in domestic bonds has shown a structural return trend since the beginning of 2025, influenced by changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policies[4] Group 3: Investment Preferences of Major Players - The National Team's investment strategy has shifted towards core broad-based ETFs, with the top seven ETFs accounting for 98.45% of their holdings by the end of 2024[30] - Social security funds have a strong preference for large-cap, high-dividend blue-chip companies, with a weighted average market value of CNY 994.54 billion and an average dividend yield of 4.6% as of Q1 2025[55] - The investment style of social security funds is characterized by a focus on stable, high-dividend stocks, often increasing holdings during market downturns[55]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 111.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The automotive business is experiencing rapid growth, with losses narrowing, and the self-developed flagship smartphone SoC chip, Xuanjie O1, has officially entered mass production, further advancing the company's high-end smartphone strategy [2][8] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the automotive business generated revenue of 18.1 billion yuan, with a single vehicle average selling price (ASP) of 239,000 yuan, reflecting a 0.5 thousand yuan increase quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The automotive business's gross margin reached 23.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with operational losses narrowing to 500 million yuan [5][8] Product Development and Market Position - The YU7 model is set to launch in July 2025, featuring significant upgrades in configuration compared to the SU7, including a long-range battery and advanced technology [6] - The company regained the top position in the Chinese smartphone market with a market share of 18.8%, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 percentage points, and a global market share of 14.1% [7][8] Growth in Smart Home Appliances - The smart home appliance segment saw a revenue increase of 113.8% year-on-year, with significant sales in air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, contributing to an IoT and consumer products revenue of 32.3 billion yuan, up 58.7% year-on-year [7][8] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 41.8 billion yuan, 53.4 billion yuan, and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "recommend" rating for the company [2][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan (up 47.4% year-on-year) and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (up 64.5% year-on-year) [4] - The automotive business's losses have narrowed, with a single-quarter operating loss reduced to 500 million yuan, and the SU7 series deliveries reached 75,869 units [6] - The smartphone high-end strategy is progressing, with a market share in mainland China returning to first place, and ASP for smartphones increased to 1,211 yuan (up 5.8% year-on-year) [6] - The smart home appliance business is growing rapidly, with IoT and consumer goods revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan (up 58.7% year-on-year) and a gross margin of 25.2% [7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 41.8 billion, 53.4 billion, and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth across multiple business segments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 111.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 47.4% and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 502.4 billion, 649.6 billion, and 819.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.3%, 29.3%, and 26.1% [5][11] Automotive Business - The automotive segment generated revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in Q1, with a gross margin of 23.2% and a narrowed operating loss of 500 million yuan [6] - The upcoming YU7 model is expected to be launched in July, featuring significant upgrades compared to the SU7 [6] Smartphone and IoT Business - Smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units with revenue of 50.6 billion yuan in Q1, and the ASP increased to 1,211 yuan [6] - The IoT and consumer goods segment saw a revenue increase of 58.7% year-on-year, driven by strong sales in smart appliances [7] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve, with net profit margins expected to reach 8.3% by 2025 [11] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 52.1 in 2024 to 29.5 in 2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [11]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [23] Core Viewpoints - The medical device bidding and procurement are significantly recovering, with a notable trend towards domestic substitution. Since the beginning of 2025, there has been a concentrated push for medical device updates, leading to a substantial increase in public bidding amounts, reaching a cumulative total of 11.8 billion yuan [3][10] - The procurement scale for medical devices has shown a month-on-month improvement since January 2025, with procurement amounts in January, February, March, and April being 17.4 billion yuan, 11.2 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan, and 15.3 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +42%, +76%, +113%, and +84% [10][3] - Major companies in the industry are benefiting from the recovery in bidding and procurement, with significant increases in procurement amounts for various devices in April 2025, including ultrasound (1.371 billion yuan, +67% YoY), CT (2.525 billion yuan, +242% YoY), and MRI (2.270 billion yuan, +191% YoY) [4][11][13] Summary by Sections Medical Device Update and Bidding Recovery - The medical device update projects are intensively advancing, with many provinces initiating collective procurement, leading to a surge in orders. The bidding process is similar to collective procurement, giving significant bargaining power to the purchasers, which benefits leading companies with comprehensive and high-end product lines [3][10] Procurement Scale and Trends - The overall scale of new medical device bidding in China is benefiting from the rapid implementation of device updates, showing a month-on-month improvement trend since the beginning of 2025. The procurement scale in April 2025 has nearly returned to the level of the same period in 2023 [10][3] Leading Companies' Performance - The bidding trends for domestic companies align closely with industry trends, with some companies showing slightly better performance. In April 2025, major domestic companies like Mindray (624 million yuan, +51% YoY), United Imaging (1.187 billion yuan, +207% YoY), and others have reported significant increases in their bidding amounts [4][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic companies in the medical device sector that are enhancing their high-end and intelligent product layouts, such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and others. The government’s support for long-term special bonds for equipment updates is expected to positively impact industry bidding growth [5][21]

Group 1: Medical Equipment Industry - The medical equipment update is intensively advancing, with a significant recovery in bidding. As of now, the cumulative public bidding amount has reached 11.8 billion yuan, benefiting from the rapid implementation of equipment updates [2][6][7] - The bidding scale for new medical equipment has shown a month-on-month improvement since the beginning of 2025, with procurement amounts in January, February, March, and April being 17.4 billion yuan, 11.2 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan, and 15.3 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 42%, 76%, 113%, and 84% [2][6][7] - Leading companies in the industry are benefiting significantly from the recovery of bidding. In April alone, procurement amounts for ultrasound, CT, MRI, DR, DSA, and gastrointestinal endoscopes were 1.371 billion yuan, 2.525 billion yuan, 2.270 billion yuan, 257 million yuan, 769 million yuan, and 391 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 67%, 242%, 191%, 75%, 133%, and 74% [7][8] Group 2: Bond Market - Following the new policy, the issuance of sci-tech bonds has increased significantly, with financial bonds accounting for 65% of the total. In May, the issuance volume of sci-tech bonds reached 333.9 billion yuan, marking a substantial increase compared to previous months [3][8][9] - The average issuance term of sci-tech bonds has slightly decreased from 3.74 years to 3.35 years, while the average term for equity investment institution bonds has increased from 5.16 years to 5.42 years [8][9] - The interest rates of newly issued sci-tech bonds are generally lower than those of unmarked bonds and slightly higher than green bonds, indicating a favorable environment for investors [9][10]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The 2025 ASCO conference will showcase significant clinical data from domestic innovative drugs, with 71 original research results selected for oral presentations, including 11 major studies [5][6] - Investment opportunities are recommended in companies with global competitiveness in innovative drugs, such as BeiGene, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, and others [6][7] - The focus is on innovation, overseas expansion, equipment upgrades, and consumer recovery within the pharmaceutical sector [6][7] Group 2: Renewable Energy Industry - The domestic wind power sector is experiencing upward trends, with offshore wind power showing positive export conditions and commercial progress [7][11] - The solar energy sector is facing high inventory levels, with domestic polysilicon inventory at approximately 390,000 tons, leading to reduced production rates [9][11] - Hydrogen energy policies are being implemented in multiple provinces, promoting the economic viability of hydrogen vehicles through highway fee exemptions [10][11] Group 3: Market Performance - The wind power index has decreased by 2.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.95 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM valuation of approximately 18.64 times [7] - The solar energy equipment index has also seen a decline of 3.19%, with the solar cell component index down by 1.91% [7] - The energy storage sector is experiencing a decline of 2.06%, with an overall PE ratio of 25.70 times [7]