2026年01月31日 首批 8 单商业不动产 REITs 正式申 FF I 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2026.01.26-2026.01.30） 5 单 REITs 申报终 (四季报出炉。 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2026.01.19-2026.01.23) 》 2026/01/24 《运营整体向好,板块内部分化一 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2026.01.12-2026.01.16) 》 2026/01/17 三单项目集中获问 《市场开门红， 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2026.01.05-2026.01.09) 》 2026/01/10 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yanqxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ● 1 月 29-30 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the home appliance sector, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies that exhibit low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth potential [5][10]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a decline of 2.4% in the appliance index while the broader index rose by 1.1% [5][6]. - Major companies like Opple Lighting, Boss Electric, and Midea Group showed positive performance, while companies like Ecovacs, Lek Electric, and Huaxiang suffered significant declines [5][8]. - Production data for major appliances in February 2026 revealed substantial year-on-year declines, with air conditioner production down 31.6%, refrigerators down 17%, and washing machines down 3.2% [10][11]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. **Dividend Play**: Leading white and black appliance companies are characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, providing a safety margin and growth potential [5]. 2. **Technology Transition**: Key component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging tech sectors such as robotics and semiconductor cooling, indicating a shift in business strategy [5]. 3. **Export Opportunities**: Major appliance firms are well-positioned in global markets, with production bases in various regions to mitigate trade risks and capitalize on demand in emerging markets [5]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a significant drop in production for major appliances in February 2026, with air conditioners at 11.49 million units, refrigerators at 6 million units, and washing machines at 6.3 million units, all showing declines compared to the previous year [10]. - The report also mentions a planned acquisition by Minexplosion Optoelectronics, which aims to purchase a 49% stake in Xiamen Maida and a 51% stake in cash, with a total consideration not exceeding 250 million yuan [11]. Data Observations - Sales data for cleaning appliances in December 2025 showed an increase in volume but a decrease in revenue and average price, with robotic vacuum sales up 29.11% but revenue down 2.14% [34]. - Personal care products like hair dryers saw a decline in sales volume and revenue, while electric shaver sales revenue increased despite a drop in volume [40][41]. Macro Economic Environment - As of January 30, 2026, the USD to RMB exchange rate showed a decrease of 0.87% since the beginning of the year, indicating potential impacts on import costs for raw materials [47]. Company Announcements - Ecovacs announced a bond buyback option, with no investors opting for the buyback during the specified period, indicating confidence in the company's stock performance [63]. - Other companies like Aojiahua and Foshan Lighting provided profit forecasts indicating significant declines in net profits for 2025, reflecting broader industry challenges [60][64].

2026 年 01 月 31 日 首批 8 单商业不动产 REITs 正式申 报！ ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2026.01.26-2026.01.30） 相关研究 《四季报出炉，5 单 REITs 申报终 止——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2026.01.19-2026.01.23）》 2026/01/24 《运营整体向好，板块内部分化— —公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2026.01.12-2026.01.16）》 2026/01/17 《市场开门红，三单项目集中获问 询——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2026.01.05-2026.01.09）》 2026/01/10 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, particularly recommending leading companies in the white and black goods categories due to their low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth potential [5][11]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a decline of 2.4% in the home appliance index while the broader index rose by 1.1% [5][6]. - Production data for major home appliances in February 2026 shows significant year-on-year declines: air conditioners down 31.6%, refrigerators down 17%, and washing machines down 3.2% [11][12]. - The report highlights the resilience of leading companies in the face of international trade fluctuations and emphasizes the growth potential in emerging markets [5][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The home appliance sector index decreased by 2.4%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.1% [5][6]. - Key companies such as Opple Lighting, Boss Electric, and Midea Group showed gains, while companies like Ecovacs and Lek Electric faced significant declines [5][8]. Production Data - February 2026 production figures indicate a total of 11.49 million air conditioners produced, a 31.6% decrease from the previous year; 6 million refrigerators, down 17%; and 6.3 million washing machines, down 3.2% [11][12]. Company Developments - Minexplosion Optoelectronics announced plans to acquire a 49% stake in Xiamen Maida and a cash purchase of 51% stake in Xiamen Precision, with a total cash consideration not exceeding 250 million yuan [12]. Market Trends - The report notes a year-on-year increase in sales of cleaning appliances, with robotic vacuum sales up 29.11% in December 2025, although sales revenue decreased by 2.14% [35][40]. - Personal care products showed mixed results, with hairdryer sales down 26.36% but electric shaver sales revenue up by 1.78% [42][45]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. Leading white and black goods companies with low valuations and high dividends [5]. 2. Core component manufacturers expanding into new technology sectors [5]. 3. Companies like Ecovacs and Roborock benefiting from strong demand for cleaning appliances [5][11]. Economic Environment - As of January 30, 2026, the USD to RMB exchange rate has decreased by 0.87% since the beginning of the year [50][51]. - Retail sales in December 2025 showed a slight increase of 0.86% year-on-year, while disposable income for urban residents rose by 4.27% [52][53]. Regulatory Developments - Shenzhen's three-year action plan aims to enhance the consumption environment, promoting smart home products and digital consumption [73][75]. - The plan encourages the integration of artificial intelligence in home appliances and aims to boost home renovation and smart home adoption [75][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire a 49% stake in Xiamen Zhizhi Precision through a share issuance and a 51% stake through cash, with the cash portion not exceeding 250 million yuan [4]. - The demand for AI PCB drill needles is expected to surge due to the increasing complexity and durability requirements of AI server boards, with the global PCB drill needle market projected to grow from 3.5 billion yuan in 2020 to 4.5 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 9.1 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 15.0% from 2024 to 2029 [6]. - Xiamen Zhizhi Precision has over 30 years of experience in the PCB drill needle sector, offering a full range of products and maintaining strong relationships with key clients in the AI field, which are anticipated to drive future revenue growth [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 1,641 million yuan in 2024, with a slight decline to 1,586 million yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 1,657 million yuan in 2026 and 1,738 million yuan in 2027 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 231 million yuan in 2024, decreasing to 212 million yuan in 2025, then increasing to 238 million yuan in 2026 and 257 million yuan in 2027 [5]. - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 30% and a return on equity (ROE) of around 9% for the forecast period [5].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Evolution - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and two rounds of quantitative tightening (QT), with total assets reaching $6.6 trillion by November 2025, over 7 times the level in early 2008[3] - The Federal Reserve's total assets were $8.9 trillion at the end of QE4 in May 2022, accounting for 35.4% of GDP, and decreased to $6.6 trillion (21.3% of GDP) by November 2025 after QT2[19] - The Federal Reserve restarted Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) in December 2025, initiating a "normalization" phase with an initial monthly purchase of $40 billion, expected to slow to $20-25 billion by May 2026[3] Group 2: Differences Between RMP and QE - RMP is fundamentally different from QE, as it aims to maintain sufficient reserves without affecting monetary policy stance, while QE is a non-conventional tool aimed at lowering long-term interest rates[4] - RMP primarily involves purchasing Treasury bills, with 75% of purchases in the 1-4 month range, contrasting with QE's focus on longer-term securities[4] - The speed of RMP expansion is expected to align with nominal GDP growth, estimated at around 5%, implying a potential annual increase of approximately $300 billion in Treasury bills[49] Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The transition to a sufficient reserves framework has decoupled policy interest rates from reserve quantities, indicating that policy rates remain the key indicator of monetary policy stance[5] - The Federal Reserve's ability to restart QE or yield curve control (YCC) is contingent upon reaching a zero interest rate environment, as historical practices suggest that such conditions are necessary for effective long-term rate reductions[6] - The current liquidity environment is characterized as the "last leg" of a liquidity easing cycle, with limited room for further rate cuts anticipated in 2026[6] Group 4: Market Impact and Risks - RMP's influence on capital markets is indirect and defensive, primarily reducing the likelihood of stock market sell-offs due to liquidity shocks, rather than providing a bullish outlook[7] - Risks include potential geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance than anticipated[7]

"流动性笔记"系列之八 2026 年 01 月 31 日 QE 时代的终结 美联储资产负债表分析框架 2025 年 12 月 FOMC 例会后, 美联储重启准备金管理购买 (RMP)，点燃了"QE 式"流动性宽 松的乐观情绪。但实际上，直到下一次经济危机，QE 时代或已终结。本文基于美联储"充足准备 金" 框架、深度解析其资产负债表的政策意义和市场含义。 一、从缩表到扩表: 美联储资产负债表"正常化"的历程 2008 年全球金融危机（GFC）以来，美联储资产负债表扩张"一发不可收拾"。2008-2026 年, 美联储共实施了四轮扩表（QE）和两轮缩表（量化紧缩，QT），期间还包括一轮再投资和两轮准 备金管理购买（RMP）。截止到 2025 年 11 月 QT2 结束，美联储总资产仍高达 6.6 万亿美元， 是 2008 年初的 7 倍有余, 是 2019 年 9 月 QT1 结束时的 1.7 倍。 2025 年 12 月 FOMC 例会,美联储重启 RMP, 标志着"常态化扩轰"阶段的开始。数量方面, 初期为 400 亿每月，5 月之后或减速至 200-250 亿。中期而言，RMP 扩表的速度或与名义 GDP ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the overseas education sector, particularly highlighting key companies in the education and training industry [1]. Core Insights - The overseas education sector has shown significant improvement in operational efficiency, with a focus on key companies in the education and training industry [1]. - New Oriental (09901.HK) reported a revenue of $1.191 billion for Q2 FY26, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, with a Non-GAAP net profit of $73 million, reflecting a 68.6% increase [6]. - Oriental Selection (01797.HK) achieved a revenue of 2.31 billion yuan in 1H FY26, up 5.7% year-on-year, and turned a profit with a net profit of 239 million yuan [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Education - The education index surged by 7.2% in the week of January 23-29, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2.2 percentage points [5]. - New Oriental's education business (including cultural tourism) generated $974 million, a 13% increase year-on-year, while other businesses (mainly Oriental Selection) saw a 22.9% revenue growth [6]. - The study abroad business's revenue growth has stabilized, with a 1% increase year-on-year, although it has slowed compared to previous periods [6]. 2. Oriental Selection - The company reported a revenue of 2.31 billion yuan in 1H FY26, marking a 5.7% increase year-on-year, and achieved profitability with a net profit of 239 million yuan [9]. - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) from self-operated products reached 2.16 billion yuan, with a significant improvement in gross margin from 21.5% to 33.7% year-on-year [10]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and enhancing operational efficiency, with a focus on increasing the utilization rate of existing teaching sites [7]. 3. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - The report highlights a strategic R&D collaboration between CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca, valued at $18.5 billion, focusing on innovative long-acting peptide drugs [3][19]. - The agreement includes a $1.2 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to $13.8 billion, along with sales royalties based on net sales [19]. 4. Overseas Social Services - Macau's gaming revenue maintained double-digit growth, with December's gross gaming revenue reaching 20.9 billion MOP, a 14.8% year-on-year increase [23]. - The total visitor count for Macau in 2025 reached 40.06 million, a 14.7% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [23].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 83.83 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 89.18/42.30 | | 市净率 | 6.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.85 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 65,657 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,117.95/14,205.89 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.89 | | 资产负债率% | 44.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 791/783 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 02-05 03-05 04-05 05-05 06-05 07-05 08-05 09-05 10-05 1 ...

Group 1 - The report presents the "Shenwan Hongyuan Top Ten Gold Stocks" for February 2026, reflecting the firm's market outlook and stock selection capabilities [1][10] - The previous gold stock combination from January 2026 achieved a return of 16.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 13.61 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 15.72 percentage points [7] - Since the inception of the gold stock initiative on March 28, 2017, the cumulative return has reached 486.47%, with the A-share combination up 361.41% and the Hong Kong stock combination up 1373.67% [7] Group 2 - The current market strategy indicates a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on cyclical sectors for alpha opportunities, while acknowledging increasing resistance to upward movement as profit effects spread [12] - Recommended sectors for investment include food and beverage, real estate, and cyclical sectors with both beta elasticity and alpha value [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying bottom assets and suggests a rotation in market focus as the trading environment stabilizes [12] Group 3 - The top ten gold stocks for this period include Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, and Dier Laser, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies [15][16] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to benefit from market reforms and increased consumer access ahead of the Spring Festival, while Hualu Hengsheng is positioned to capitalize on favorable industry policies [15][16] - Dier Laser is noted for its strong competitive position in the photovoltaic sector and potential growth in non-photovoltaic businesses [15][16] Group 4 - The report includes detailed performance metrics for each stock, highlighting their market capitalization, price changes, and excess returns compared to benchmarks [13][18] - For instance, Guizhou Moutai has a market cap of 175.44 billion RMB and is projected to see a net profit growth of 5.0% in 2026 [18] - The report also provides valuation and profit forecasts for the recommended stocks, indicating strong growth prospects for several companies [18]