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日本经验,零部件观点更新,岱美股份重申-20251225
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-25 09:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, specifically recommending companies like Uxin and Daimay as strong investment opportunities [2][5]. Core Insights - The second-hand car export market faces significant challenges, including the non-standard nature of vehicles and a complex transaction chain. Japan's experience in this sector offers valuable lessons, such as stringent vehicle inspection policies and the establishment of standardized auction platforms [3][4]. - The automotive parts sector has not seen the anticipated year-end surge due to exhausted subsidies and consumer hesitance. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong alpha, such as Shuanghuan Transmission and Yinlun, which have stable growth and high market ceilings [4]. - Daimay is highlighted as a stable, undervalued company with significant growth potential, particularly in the automotive interior and robotics sectors. The company has made substantial progress in expanding its client base, including partnerships with major players like Tesla [5][7]. Summary by Sections Second-Hand Car Export - The second-hand car export market is hindered by trust issues and a lack of standardized practices. Japan's strict vehicle inspection policies and auction platforms provide a model for improvement. Uxin, with a current inventory of nearly 7,000 vehicles, is positioned for growth in this market [2][3]. Automotive Parts Sector - The automotive industry did not experience the expected late-year demand surge due to depleted subsidies and cautious consumer behavior. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the continuation of trade-in policies and suggests focusing on companies with strong alpha characteristics, such as Shuanghuan Transmission and Yinlun [4]. Daimay - Daimay is recognized for its stable performance and low valuation, with 80% of its revenue coming from overseas markets. The company is well-positioned to withstand domestic market pressures and has made significant strides in the robotics field, particularly in electronic skin technology [5][7].
申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251225
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-25 08:08
| 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | ┣证指数 3941 00.53 22.72 1.83 | | 深证综指 2518 1.04 5.31 2.43 | | (%) | 风格指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 3.95 | 18.97 | | 中盘指数 | 7.31 - | 28.39 | | 小盘指数 | 5.54 | 23.61 | | 涨幅居前 行VK(%) | | 昨日 近1个月 近6个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 航天装备II | 6.82 | 41.87 | 80.84 | | 其他申子Ⅱ | 4.62 | 10.99 | 48.88 | | 真他电源设 S | 4.39 | 10.78 | 42.28 | | 玻璃玻纤 | 4.12 | 19.66 | 57.07 | | 军工电子Ⅱ | 3.59 | 13.98 | 23.94 | | 跌幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近1个月 近6个月 | | | 动物保健工 | -3 | 8.05 | 19.35 | | 养殖业 | -1.53 | -2.1 ...
指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百六十三:交银中证智选沪深港科技50ETF投资价值分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-25 06:40
Report Overview - Report Title: "2025 December 25th, Investment Value Analysis of Bank of Communications CSI Smart Selection Shanghai-Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF - Index Fund Product Research Series Report No. 263" [1] - Report Recipient: Zhonggeng Fund [2] - Analysts: Fang Siqi, Deng Hu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Policy support drives long - term investment opportunities in Chinese technology assets under low - valuation conditions. With multiple central policies from 2023 - 2025, the technology sector has strong fundamentals and growth certainty [3][8]. - Chinese technology stocks have low valuations and significant repair potential. Current index valuations are at historical lows, and as policy dividends are realized, their value will increase, especially in high - growth sectors [3][12]. - The CSI Smart Selection Shanghai - Hong Kong Technology 50 Index selects high - growth technology companies. It covers various technology sectors, has a relatively low valuation, and offers good long - term returns [3]. - The Bank of Communications CSI Smart Selection Shanghai - Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF is an effective tool for investing in the technology sector, being the only ETF tracking this index [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Policy Support and Mid - to Long - Term Investment Opportunities in Chinese Technology Assets - **Innovation Policy Reinforcement**: Policies aim to reduce R & D costs, strengthen corporate innovation, and guide resources to high - tech areas. The technology finance system is improving, and the sector has mid - to long - term investment value [8]. - **Valuation and Investment Appeal**: Chinese technology stock index valuations are at historical lows, lower than overseas counterparts. There is significant potential for valuation repair as policies take effect and corporate profitability improves [12]. - **Growth Elasticity of Technology Indexes**: Since September 24, 2024, technology indexes have outperformed the broader market, showing high elasticity and resilience. Their relative advantage is expected to continue [16] 3.2 CSI Smart Selection Shanghai - Hong Kong Technology 50 Index - **Focus on Core Technology Assets**: The index selects 50 high - growth technology companies from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets, reflecting the performance of high - potential technology stocks [17][21]. - **Coverage of Popular Technology Sectors**: It has a clear technology - dominated style, covering sectors like electronics, machinery, and power equipment. The top ten components account for 53.27% of the weight, and the index has a relatively low valuation compared to peers [24][29][31]. - **Stable Long - Term Performance**: Since its establishment in 2016, the index has had a cumulative return of 126.38% and an annualized return of about 9.55%. Since September 24, 2024, it has outperformed similar indexes, showing high sensitivity to the technology market [33][34] 3.3 Bank of Communications CSI Smart Selection Shanghai - Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (517950) - The ETF was established on June 26, 2025, and listed on July 7, 2025. Managed by Cai Zheng and Shao Wenting, it has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.05%. It closely tracks the CSI Smart Selection Shanghai - Hong Kong Technology 50 Index and is the only ETF tracking this index [42][43]
新东方-S(09901):经营效率提升,利润率扩张提速
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-25 05:43
上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 社会服务 2025 年 12 月 25 日 新东方-S (09901) ——经营效率提升,利润率扩张提速 报告原因:调整投资评级 买入(上调) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 12 月 24 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港币) | 43.58 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8915.12 | | 52 周最高/最低(港币) | 49.90/31.20 | | H 股市值(亿港币) | 751.92 | | 流通 H 股(百万股) | 1,591.46 | | 汇率(港币/人民币) | 0.9067 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: -33% 17% 67% HSCEI 新东方-S 资料来源:Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 投资要点: 我们预计新东方 2QFY26 收入 11.65 亿美元,同比增长 12.2%。其中教育业务(含文旅)实现 收入 ...
迪尔化工(920304):熔盐储能双基地版图建成在即,从周期向成长转型
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-25 03:35
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a cyclical to a growth-oriented business model, focusing on molten salt energy storage, which is expected to enhance both performance and valuation, leading to a "Davis Double" effect [6][7]. - The traditional business is showing signs of recovery, supported by acquisitions that strengthen the company's foundational operations [6][7]. - The molten salt energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, driven by applications in concentrated solar power and flexible coal power generation, with an expected cumulative installed capacity of 19.1 GW by 2030 [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition from Cyclical to Growth - The company, established in 2001, has built an integrated production chain for nitric acid and its derivatives, becoming a major player in the domestic market [16]. - The company began generating revenue from molten salt-grade potassium nitrate in 2021 and is expected to see significant sales growth in 2025 as production capacity ramps up [16]. 2. Recovery of Traditional Business - Nitric acid prices are expected to stabilize due to a supportive raw material environment, particularly liquid ammonia, which is crucial for production [40][45]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from a recovery in nitric acid and potassium nitrate prices, aided by its integrated production capabilities [6][7]. 3. Growth Engine of Molten Salt Energy Storage - The company is developing a complete product matrix for molten salt, with projects in concentrated solar power and compressed air energy storage expected to drive demand [6][7]. - The molten salt market is anticipated to require 206,000 tons by 2030, with significant contributions from the solar power sector as costs decrease [6][7]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 58 million, 86 million, and 115 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 39, 26, and 20 [5][7]. - The target market capitalization is estimated at 2.4 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 9% from current levels [7]. 5. Market Dynamics and Competitive Position - The company benefits from a flexible production system that allows for cost optimization and efficient resource allocation across its product lines [62]. - The agricultural-grade potassium nitrate market is expected to grow due to increasing demand for high-quality crops and supportive government policies [50][52].
申万宏源研究晨会报告-20251225
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-25 00:46
| 涨幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 6.82 | 41.87 | 80.84 | | 其他电子Ⅱ | 4.62 | 10.99 | 48.88 | | 其他电源设 | 4.39 | 10.78 | 42.28 | | 备Ⅱ 玻璃玻纤 | 4.12 | 19.66 | 57.07 | | 军工电子Ⅱ | 3.59 | 13.98 | 23.94 | | 跌幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 动物保健Ⅱ | -3 | 8.05 | 19.35 | | 养殖业 | -1.53 | -2.17 | 7.23 | | 贵金属 | -1.36 | 13.37 | 37.93 | | 饲料Ⅱ | -1.18 | -4.68 | -6.03 | | 游戏Ⅱ | -0.95 | 2.51 | 29.08 | 今日重点推荐 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | (点) | 1 日 | 5 日 | ...
京东(JD):国补高基数效应显现,新业务亏损预计收窄
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-24 15:20
2025 年 12 月 24 日 京东 (JD) ——国补高基数效应显现,新业务亏损预计收窄 上 市 公 司 互联网电商 报告原因:强调原有的投资评级 买入(维持) | 1×× × m | | --- | | OFF | 证 券 研 究 报 | 市场数据: | 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(美元) | 29.08 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23561.84 | | 52 周最高/最低(美元) | 45.12/28.21 | | 美股市值(亿美元) | 463 | | 流通股(亿股) | 28.7 | | 汇率(人民币/美元) | 7.01 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 资料来源:Bloomberg 相关研究 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,302,344 | 1,402,107 | 1,504,110 | | 同比增长率(%) | 3.7 | 6.8 ...
通威股份(600438):周期拐点确立,成本壁垒构筑长期护城河
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-24 14:40
上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 24 日 通威股份 (600438) ——周期拐点确立,成本壁垒构筑长期护城河 报告原因:首次覆盖 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 91,994 | 64,600 | 90,909 | 106,471 | 124,081 | | 同比增长率(%) | -33.9 | -5.4 | -1.2 | 17.1 | 16.5 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | -7,039 | -5,270 | -6,098 | 2,883 | 5,963 | | 同比增长率(%) | -151.9 | - | - | - | 106.9 | | 每股收益(元/股) | -1.58 | -1.17 | -1.35 | 0.64 | 1.32 | | 毛利率(%) | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 10.7 | 14.1 | | ROE(%) | -14.5 | ...
百利天恒(688506):创新驱动发展,全球布局未来
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-24 14:40
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned to innovative drug development, particularly in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector, highlighted by a significant global collaboration with BMS worth $8.4 billion for the EGFR/HER3 dual-target ADC, which positions the company for accelerated growth [6][8]. - The core product, iza-bren, is advancing through clinical trials and is expected to enter commercialization soon, with a potential market approval in 2026 for nasopharyngeal carcinoma [8][41]. - The company has established four major technology platforms that support a diverse pipeline of innovative drug candidates, enhancing its competitive edge in the oncology market [37][41]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 2,211 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year decline of 62% due to increased R&D investments [7]. - The company anticipates net losses of 599 million yuan in 2025, with further losses projected for 2026 and 2027 [9]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 89% in 2025 to 85.6% by 2027, reflecting the evolving product mix as innovative drugs gain market traction [7][10]. Pipeline Analysis - The company is focusing on the clinical development of iza-bren, with multiple indications being pursued, including high-incidence tumors, and aims to submit additional regulatory applications in the coming years [8][41]. - Other innovative products in the pipeline, such as HER2 ADC and EGFR/HER3 dual-target antibodies, are also under development and could significantly contribute to future revenue [8][11]. Valuation and Market Potential - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 159.4 billion yuan, indicating a 13% upside potential from the current market value [9]. - The report emphasizes that the current market valuation does not fully reflect the potential of the company's diverse pipeline, suggesting further upside as clinical data emerges [11].
全球资产配置方法论黄金框架性报告之七:2026年黄金配置指南:供需新格局与战术择时策略
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-24 14:18
证 券 研 究 报 告 2026年黄金配置指南:供需新格局与战术择时策略 主要观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 展望2026年黄金:战略层面,美国财政赤字居高不下+去美元化长期趋势持续(全球央行购金)背景下,金价长期仍有上涨空间。2026 年金价年内战术择时需重点关注美国周期性变化下的美债利率走 势与波动率等交易性指标,相比2025年,2026年美国利率周期边际变化和交易性力量的增加或提升黄金波动性,需要加强战术择时。 ◼ 2026年黄金战略配置逻辑关注供需格局变化和美元信用,中期仍有上行空间。供需格局来看,2022 年以来的金价上涨核心源于黄金供需缺口扩大,而缺口扩大的核心驱动力是需求大幅增加。2022年 以来央行购金是主要需求增量,而2025年ETF需求出现加速回升。1)央行与官方机构购金方面,欧美债务风险与地缘政治风险叠加,以中国为首的央行对黄金的配置性需求趋势将持续,支撑黄金长期 战略配置价值。截至 2025 年 8 月,中国黄金占储备资产比例仅 7%,显著低于 22.4% 的全球平均水平,仍有较大上行空间。而俄罗斯近年阶段性黄金抛售并未阻碍金价系统性牛市,历史数据显 ...