Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain elevated due to persistent cold weather and improving demand, with power coal prices showing a week-on-week increase [1][6]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and environmental checks in major production areas, which is expected to support coal prices [1][5]. - The report recommends stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to growth-oriented coal companies [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held to enhance safety measures in coal mining, emphasizing a systematic approach to safety governance [5]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou has been established, which is significant for energy security and regional economic development [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, power coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton for different grades, reflecting week-on-week increases [1]. - The report indicates that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a noted increase in coal output from production areas [1][2]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased to 63.34 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 4.26%, which may influence coal prices [11]. Port Inventory Trends - The average daily coal inflow at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 1.4613 million tons, while the outflow also saw a slight increase, indicating a dynamic supply-demand balance [16]. - Port inventories decreased to 26.727 million tons, a reduction of 2.91% week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [16]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs decreased to 31.90 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases [22]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings ratios for the upcoming years [25].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 12, 2026, there were 19 new private placement projects added in the last two weeks, a decrease of 5 projects compared to the previous period[7] - The number of projects terminated increased by 1 to 6, with 2 being competitive bidding projects[7] - The approval rate for projects was 100%, with 11 projects approved by the review committee, an increase of 1[19] Group 2: Fundraising and Valuation - The total fundraising amount for the 4 projects listed in the last two weeks was 2.825 billion yuan, a decrease of 61.23%[34] - The average price discount rate for competitive bidding projects was 22.76%, an increase of 10.20 percentage points[34] - The PE and PB ratios for Dongfang Tantalum were 71.14x and 6.92x, respectively, significantly higher than the industry average[22] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The absolute return rate for newly unlocked competitive bidding projects averaged 60.55%, with an excess return rate of 26.36%, both up over 36 percentage points[4] - The average industry beta during the "issuance-unlocking" period was 43.76%, an increase of 14.97 percentage points[4] - The average individual stock alpha during the same period was 35.66%, up 29.54 percentage points[4] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected approval processes, fluctuations in secondary market stock prices, and changes in the competitive bidding market environment[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and high demand from cold weather [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of January 9, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port have increased, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades priced at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 21, 20, and 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - Supply is expected to contract due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures, while demand remains robust due to cold weather, supporting higher thermal coal prices [1]. - The report also notes that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a daily average of 164.79 million tons being shipped out from the Bohai Rim ports, a 0.69% increase week-on-week [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held on January 6, emphasizing the need for stringent safety measures in mining operations [7]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou was inaugurated, enhancing coal distribution efficiency [7]. 2. Price Movements - Domestic thermal coal prices have seen a week-on-week increase, with specific grades reporting price hikes [8]. - International thermal coal prices have shown stability with slight increases in certain markets, such as Indonesia [9]. 3. Inventory and Supply - Bohai Rim port coal inventory decreased to 26.727 million tons, a 2.91% drop week-on-week, indicating tighter supply conditions [20]. - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 4.28% week-on-week, while outflow also saw a slight increase [20]. 4. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased slightly, with average freight rates reported at 31.90 CNY/ton, a 1.69% decline week-on-week [26]. - International shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases while others have decreased [26]. 5. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [30].

吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 2026 年 01 月 13 日 国亮新材（920076）：耐火材料小巨 人，募投推进智能化、绿色化 ——北交所新股申购策略报告之一百五十六 相关研究 - 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 策 略 ⚫ 基本面：业内知名的耐火材料小巨人。公司 2002 年成立，总部位于河北唐山，主要从事 高温工业用耐火材料整体解决方案，提供耐火材料整体承包服务及耐火材料产品。根据河 北省耐火材料行业统计分析报告（2024 年数据），公司在河北省 2,000 万以上产值规模 耐火材料企业中排名第一。区位优势显著，客户资源丰富。公司地处唐山，唐山是全国钢 铁产量第一大市，2024 年唐山粗钢产量达 1.20 亿吨、约占全国粗钢产量的 11.90%。在 钢铁行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential and market position [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in fine chemicals, focusing on domestic substitution and leveraging high-barrier core intermediates to drive growth across multiple segments, including nutrition, flavor and fragrance, new materials, and pharmaceuticals [4][18]. - The financial forecast shows significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 231.83 billion, 234.26 billion, and 244.78 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside an upward revision of net profit estimates [5][7]. - The company benefits from a solid profit base, particularly in the methionine segment, which is expected to see volume and price increases due to market dynamics and new project launches [6][18]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 21,610 million yuan in 2024 to 24,478 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 5,869 million yuan in 2024 to 8,058 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.91 yuan in 2024 to 2.62 yuan in 2027, indicating robust profitability [5][7]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - The nutrition segment, particularly vitamins A and E, is expected to stabilize, while methionine demand is projected to grow at over 6%, supported by a strong cost advantage [6][8]. - The flavor and fragrance segment is anticipated to continue its steady growth, driven by the company's leading position and ongoing product expansion [6][8]. - The new materials segment is set to benefit from the integration of nylon projects, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [6][8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market presence through its diversified product offerings and strategic focus on high-barrier intermediates, which provide a competitive edge in the fine chemicals industry [4][18]. - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain profitability even in challenging market conditions, thanks to its cost advantages and strategic project developments [6][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see significant growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong VLCC freight rates and structural changes in trade dynamics, including new refinery capacities and geopolitical shifts [4]. - The aviation sector is projected to enter a golden era, with passenger transport expected to reach 770 million in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from 2024 and a 16.7% increase from 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the shipping industry from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics, particularly in shipbuilding, as older vessels are replaced [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding sectors are facing challenges due to trade tensions, impacting profit margins and demand [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Q4 2025 VLCC freight rates are expected to average around $95,500 per day, with a projected demand increase of 1.7% from new refinery capacities and a 2.1% increase from compliance changes in Venezuelan oil [4]. - The dry bulk market is also showing strong performance, with Cape-sized vessel rates expected to rise by 20% to $27,600 per day [4]. - The report estimates that COSCO Shipping Energy's Q4 earnings will be approximately 1.9 billion RMB, while China Merchants Energy's will be around 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with second-hand ship prices rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding sector is facing profit margin compression due to trade frictions, with the CCFI index expected to decline by 26% in Q4 2025 [4]. Aviation - The Chinese aviation market is expected to achieve a profit of 6.5 billion RMB in 2025, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines anticipated to see significant performance improvements [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of international routes as passenger volumes are expected to grow, driven by a recovery in outbound travel [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 5% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by price increases and seasonal demand, despite challenges from trade policies [4]. Road and Rail - The report notes a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continue to increase, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on companies with strong supply-demand dynamics and pricing power, as well as those with technological cost-reduction capabilities [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an upward trend in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies like Fuda, Bertley, Minshi, Top, and Jingu, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers such as Xiaopeng, NIO, Li Auto, BAIC, and Jianghuai [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in the used car sector and improved profitability for dealers due to the industry's inflationary pricing cycle, recommending companies like Uxin [1][2]. - The report notes that the official implementation of new subsidies is expected to boost demand primarily in the mid-to-low-end market, with companies like BYD and Geely being highlighted for their performance potential [2]. Market Updates - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the last week of December reached 123,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% this week, while the overall market index (CSI 300) increased by 2.79%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [12]. - The report indicates that 201 automotive stocks rose while 68 fell, with the largest gainers being Siling Co., Jingu Co., and Kaizhong Co., which saw increases of 30.5%, 26.3%, and 23.3%, respectively [18]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the 403rd batch of new car approvals, which includes notable models such as Xiaomi SU7, NIO ES9, and BYD's new models [3][4][5]. - The report discusses the rising costs of memory impacting the automotive industry, with NIO's founder highlighting that memory prices are becoming a significant cost pressure compared to traditional materials like lithium [6][7]. - A joint initiative by nine government departments aims to promote green consumption, with a focus on supporting the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhancing the automotive supply chain [10][11][26]. Financial Analysis - The automotive industry currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the broader market [15]. - The report notes that there are no companies facing stock unlocks in the upcoming week, which may provide stability in the market [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong positions in AI and robotics, such as Desay SV, Jingwei Hirain, and Kobot, which are expected to benefit from the industry's technological advancements [1][2]. - It also suggests monitoring component manufacturers with solid earnings support and relatively low valuations, including Yinlun, Fuda, Shuanghuan, Jifeng, Minshi, Xingyu, and Ningbo Huaxiang [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential and market position [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in fine chemicals, focusing on domestic substitution and leveraging high-barrier core intermediates to drive growth across various segments, including nutritional products, flavors and fragrances, new materials, and pharmaceuticals [19][20]. - The nutritional products segment is expected to recover, with methionine prices anticipated to rise due to strong global demand and supply constraints [6][19]. - The company has a solid profit base and is poised for growth with the upcoming nylon integration project, which aims to address domestic production challenges in the industry [19][20]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 231.83 billion, 234.26 billion, and 244.78 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 67.33 billion, 72.02 billion, and 80.58 billion yuan [5][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% in net profit over the next three years, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 2.19, 2.34, and 2.62 yuan for the same period [5][7]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is estimated at approximately 11 times, which is below the average PE of comparable companies at 15 times, indicating potential undervaluation [7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market presence in the nutritional products sector, particularly in vitamins A and E, and is expanding its methionine production capacity to meet rising global demand [6][19]. - The flavors and fragrances segment is expected to grow steadily, supported by the company's leading position in the domestic market and ongoing product expansion efforts [6][19]. - In the new materials sector, the company is focusing on high-barrier processes and domestic substitution opportunities, with significant investments in projects like the nylon integration initiative in Tianjin [6][19]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes stable pricing for vitamins A and E, with a gradual recovery in methionine prices as production ramps up [8]. - The flavors and fragrances segment is expected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on expanding product offerings [8]. - The new materials segment is projected to benefit from the upcoming launch of the Tianjin nylon project, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue starting in 2028 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an increase in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies with good supply-demand dynamics and price transmission capabilities, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers with model cycles [2]. - The report notes that the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 123,000 units in the last week of December, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the recently implemented green consumption policies, which aim to support the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhance the automotive industry's supply chain [11][12]. Market Updates - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 638.35 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 11.27%. The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% during the week [2][13]. - The report indicates that the automotive industry index's growth was lower than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [13]. - The report lists significant stock movements, with 201 stocks rising and 68 falling, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the automotive sector [19]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 403rd batch of new vehicle approvals, featuring several notable models from various manufacturers [3][4]. - The report discusses the rising cost pressures in the automotive industry due to increasing memory prices, which are becoming a significant factor affecting profitability [6][8]. - The report mentions a strategic cooperation agreement between CATL and NIO, focusing on battery technology and market collaboration [36]. Financial Metrics - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's 14.41 [16][18].

行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 13 日 商业航天催化持续，继续加大军工 行业关注度 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2026 年第 2 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 13.63%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 15.29%，同期上证综指 上涨 3.82%，沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，创业板指上涨 3.89%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创 业板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上 周国防军工板块 13.63%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 2 ...