策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 战略定力 ——中央经济工作会议点评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 A 股 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com - ⚫ 2025 年中央经济工作会议明确了 2026 年"稳中求进、提质增效"的主基调，宏观政策将实施"更加积极 的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"，并强调"存量+增量政策的集成效应"。通稿在基调上展现出更 强的战略定力，明确提出"我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深……这些大多 是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks in key areas, with a focus on city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve quality [2][4]. - The report highlights two major opportunities: the rise of "good housing" policies and the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate, particularly during a period of monetary easing [4][12]. - The report anticipates further supportive policies for both supply and demand in the real estate market, including potential reductions in mortgage rates and optimization of purchase restrictions [4][12]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report underscores the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies to promote stable economic growth and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][6]. - It suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will become more aggressive, with expectations for further interest rate cuts [4][8]. Real Estate Market - The report notes that the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market reflects a dual focus on halting price declines and addressing existing risks [4][12]. - It mentions the introduction of policies aimed at controlling supply, reducing inventory, and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [4][12]. - The report also discusses the need for reform in the housing provident fund system and the promotion of high-quality housing development [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the value reassessment of shopping centers and the new "good housing" sector, maintaining a "positive" rating for real estate and property management [4][12]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties [4][12]. - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao [4][12]. - Undervalued companies: Jianfa Co., China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments [4][12]. - Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Service, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [4][12]. - Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4][12].

宏 观 研 究 —— 12 月中央经济工作会议学习理解 事件：新华社北京 12 月 11 日电，中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。 会议在基调上有何亮点？针对新形势提出五个"必须"、强调"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"等 2025 年中央经济工作会议针对新形势提出五个"必须"，与 2024 年五个"统筹"形成逻辑呼应，延续并 深化了经济工作的规律性认识。五个"必须"具体为：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革 创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内 功应对外部挑战。与 2024 年会议提出的五个"统筹"为对比， 2025 年会议更突出经济潜能挖掘与政策、 改革的协同发力，同时强化内需稳定性保障，政策导向更贴合当前发展形势。 会议分析经济形势时指出，我国"老问题、新挑战仍然不少"，并突出强调"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"， 精准聚焦当前核心痛点。2024 年会议中提出的问题更侧重需求侧，即"国内需求不足，部分企业生产经营 困难，群众就业增收面临压力"。2025 年会议则直指当前供给相对偏强而需求不足的现状，既契合 PPI、 CPI 持续疲 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [12]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to stabilize investment and increase central budget investment to support key projects, particularly in light of the significant pressure on investment due to local government debt and the real estate sector [2][4]. - There is a focus on actively and prudently resolving risks in key areas, urging local governments to take initiative in debt management, which is expected to improve cash flow for construction companies [4]. - Continued deepening of state-owned enterprise reform is highlighted, aiming to enhance the core competitiveness of central state-owned enterprises, which dominate the construction industry [4]. - Green development initiatives are being advanced, with increased demand for carbon reduction transformations in major industries, which is expected to benefit construction engineering companies [4]. - The report suggests that the construction industry will stabilize in 2026, with emerging sectors likely to see higher investment opportunities due to major national strategies [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Analysis - The report indicates that from January to October 2025, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) down by 0.1% [4]. - The emphasis on central funding for key projects is expected to stimulate investment recovery [4]. Key Company Recommendations - Investment focus includes companies such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and Donghua Technology in the central and western regions, and companies like Jinggong Steel Structure and Zhongsteel International for overseas expansion [4]. - Low valuation companies such as China Railway and Shanghai Construction are expected to see valuation recovery [4]. Valuation Table Insights - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the construction sector, highlighting earnings per share (EPS) and projected net profit growth rates for 2024 to 2026 [6][7]. - For instance, China Railway is projected to have a net profit of 26,183 million yuan in 2025, with a decline of 6% from the previous year [6].

REIT 分析 策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 和田最大水电站，电价弹性可期 ——华夏中核清洁能源 REIT 深度价值分析 本期投资提示： 相关研究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 申购策略观点：本基金发行份额为3亿份，预计2025/12/17询价，区间为3.356元/份-5.033 元/份。基础设施项目为波波娜水电站，位于喀拉喀什河（发源于昆仑山冰川），背靠区域 内第一大水电运营商，是和田地区投运装机规模最大、年发电量最高的水电项目。项目售电 以优先计划量为主，批复 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 11月中国与新兴市场流入加速，发达市场流入减速 全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年11月） 3 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.11 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 11月，美国政府关门宣告结束，经济数据开始逐步披露。11月21日，美国劳工局数据显示，9月，新增非农就业人数11.9万人，远超市场预期的5万人，失业率上升0.1个百分点至4.4%， 续创2021年11月以来的最高水平。市场在美元的强弱摇摆中寻找新的线索。12月10日，美联储如期降息25BPs，年内累计下调75BPs，但是本次降息出现3票反对，美联储内部分歧加 大。从11月1日到12月10日，分资产类别来看，1）权益方面，美元计价下，巴西和越南股市领涨全球，美元计价下分别上涨4.5%和4.7%，而纳斯达克和沪深300则出现下跌；2）固收 层面，10年美债收益率和美元指数先下后上，美联储降息当天下行5BPs， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900, with a slight decline of 0.23% over one day and a decrease of 2.94% over five days, while showing a modest increase of 0.58% over one month [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2492, reflecting a daily increase of 0.26%, a five-day decline of 1.47%, and a one-month increase of 2.11% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The real estate services sector showed the highest daily increase of 3.6%, with a one-month increase of 1.55% and a six-month increase of 3.23% [1] - The education sector increased by 3.43% daily, with a one-month increase of 3.26% and a six-month increase of 5.97% [1] - The computer equipment sector experienced the largest decline, dropping by 2.06% daily and 5.01% over one month, while showing an 18.09% increase over six months [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 10 resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.50-3.75%, alongside the announcement of short-term Treasury purchases [2][9] - The GDP growth forecast was revised upward, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast was revised downward, indicating a shift in economic outlook [2][9] - The FOMC's decision-making is expected to return to a "data-dependent" approach, with future rate cuts becoming more challenging [3][9] Group 4: Company Analysis - Heng Er Da (恒而达) - Heng Er Da's revenue is projected to grow from 312 million to 585 million yuan from 2017 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.38% [13] - The company is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of a top German grinding machine company, to enhance its capabilities in high-precision threading [13] - The linear guide rail business has shown rapid growth, with revenue expected to increase significantly from 4.44 million yuan in 2022 to 34.91 million yuan in 2024 [13]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the covered company, with a target market value of 12.6 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 22% [6]. Core Views - The report suggests that the robotics industry chain companies have seen stock price adjustments, and recent breakthroughs by leading domestic companies could ignite market sentiment. It recommends focusing on technology-leading companies like Tesla and related robotics industry chain companies [2]. - The report highlights the importance of the domestic automotive market, with a notable increase in average daily retail sales of passenger cars in November, up 2% year-on-year and 19% month-on-month [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth in the PEEK market for humanoid robots, with significant advantages over metals, and the company's strategic partnerships to enhance its competitive position [5][6]. Industry Situation Update - The report notes that the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the last week of November reached 126,000 units, a 2% increase year-on-year and a 19% increase compared to the previous month [2]. - The report indicates that traditional and new energy raw material price indices have risen recently, with increases of 0.9% and 2.1% for traditional car materials, and 0.9% and 2.8% for new energy vehicle materials [2]. - The total transaction value of the automotive industry for the week was 421.314 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.56% increase week-on-week [2]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on domestic strong alpha manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies with strong performance growth and robotics layout capabilities [2]. - It highlights the importance of the central state-owned enterprise reform, suggesting continued attention to companies like SAIC and Dongfeng [2]. - The report identifies key companies in the robotics and automotive parts sectors, recommending companies like Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and others for their strong performance growth and overseas expansion capabilities [2]. Key Events - The report reviews significant events, including the potential introduction of a U.S. government administrative order to support the robotics industry, which could accelerate development in the sector [10][11]. - It mentions the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy, which will be halved starting in 2026, prompting various car manufacturers to introduce compensatory measures for consumers [12][13]. - The report highlights the establishment of a joint research center between Tsinghua University and a company to focus on next-generation battery technology [32].

Inflation Data Overview - November CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, meeting expectations[1] - November PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the previous month's -2.1% and expectations of -2%[1] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by structural factors, including a low base effect and reduced supply in certain food categories, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw increases of 21.8% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Pork prices, significantly affected by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a year-on-year CPI of -15%[2] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year[3] - Excluding gold, core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, indicating weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions[3] PPI Dynamics - PPI showed a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month, with coal prices rising by 9.5% month-on-month due to anti-involution effects, contributing 0.3% to PPI[4] - However, lower prices in steel and oil negatively impacted PPI, leading to a net decrease of 0.2%[4] Future Outlook - Commodity prices may continue to rise, but the impact on downstream prices from anti-involution trends is expected to be gradual, with PPI projected to stabilize at -2.1% in December and recover slowly in 2026[5] - CPI is anticipated to see a mild recovery, supported by rising PPI and pork prices, but constrained by slowing gold price increases and subsidy reductions, with a year-end CPI forecast of around 0.6%[5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The implementation of the Spring and Autumn holiday policy has significantly boosted tourism demand, leading to a remarkable increase in market activity [5][22] - The "Snow Holiday" policy has stimulated rapid growth in the winter tourism sector, particularly in ice and snow activities [25][26] - Government subsidies and financial support are effectively driving service consumption across multiple sectors, including tourism, sports, and education [32][33] Summary by Sections 1. Spring and Autumn Holidays Drive Tourism Demand Recovery - The Spring and Autumn holiday policy was introduced to encourage local education departments to implement school holidays, leading to increased travel during off-peak seasons [10][13] - Family travel demand surged, with over 53% of trips during the Autumn holiday being family-oriented, particularly in educational tourism activities [17][21] - Popular tourist destinations experienced a significant increase in ticket bookings, with some locations reporting a 3.4 times year-on-year increase in ticket reservations [21][22] 2. Consumer Subsidies Promote Steady Recovery in Service Consumption - Recent policies from multiple government departments aim to enhance service consumption quality and convenience, focusing on cultural, tourism, sports, and education sectors [32][33] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, over 29,000 cultural and tourism events were held, with consumption subsidies exceeding 480 million yuan [33] - The introduction of "ticket root economy" has linked various sectors, significantly boosting overall city consumption [33] 3. Valuation of Key Industry Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the tourism and hospitality sectors, highlighting their market capitalization and earnings per share projections [37][40] - Notable companies include Sanchuan Tourism, Huazhu, Atour, and Jiuhua Tourism, which are recommended for investment consideration due to their growth potential in the current market environment [40][41]