债市的"盲点"系列之二 2025 年 12 月 09 日 相关研究 《2026年:财政货币政策展望- 2026 年展望报告系列之 2025/12/02 《中长期债基久期上升，机构杠杆率多数上行——机构行为观察周报 率多数上行一 20251121 》 2025/ 《向"改革" 要红利– 2025/11/22 -2026 年 宏观形势展望》 2025/11/16 《居民存款搬家仍处于起步期 申万宏源策略：五问五答看懂居民 存款搬家》 2025/08/19 t «点点»: 《债市的"盲点" ？ ——兼论长们 利率从"2%" 到 "1%" 的距离》 更论长债 利率从 2025/03/17 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Low - interest environment is not a "safe haven" for low bond - market volatility. Overseas bond markets in low - interest environments often experience rapid and significant adjustments, and bond "convexity" amplifies market volatility [3][80]. - The "homogeneous strategies" and crowded trading behaviors of institutions in a low - interest environment are the micro - foundation of bond - market vulnerability. Reversals in macro - fundamental expectations can trigger rapid bond - market adjustments, and the "rebalancing" of funds exacerbates market volatility [4][80]. - In 2026, the economy is expected to move from "confidence building" to an "atypical" recovery. Nominal GDP repair may lead to fund "rebalancing", and the process of large - scale deposit maturity may intensify bond - market volatility [5][80]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Overseas Experience as a Mirror? "Low - interest" Environment May Not Be a "Safe Haven" for Volatility - Low - interest is not a guarantee of low bond - market volatility. After 1990, the rule that "lower interest rates lead to narrower volatility" in US Treasuries failed, and the volatility of government bonds in other developed economies did not converge as their interest rates dropped from 2% to 1% [3][12]. - Bond - market adjustments in low - interest overseas environments are large - scale, fast, and often accompanied by rising term premiums. The average adjustment amplitudes of the US, Germany, France, and Japan are 81bp, 53bp, 59bp, and 74bp respectively, usually occurring within 1 - 2 months [3][21]. - Bond "convexity" magnifies market volatility in low - interest environments. A 30Y Treasury bond's price decline in a low - interest reversal is about 1.7 times that in a high - interest environment [3][26]. 2. Behind the "High - volatility" Trap? Extreme Deduction of Consensus Expectations and Backlash under Macro - environment Changes - In a low - interest environment, the "homogeneous strategies" of institutions are the micro - foundation of bond - market vulnerability. Allocation - type institutions extend durations, and trading - type institutions increase leverage [4][31]. - Reversals in macro - fundamental expectations are the direct cause of high bond - market volatility. High bond - market volatility in the low - interest era often occurs during interest - rate cuts, and nominal GDP repair is an important trigger [4][38]. - The "rebalancing" of funds due to macro - environment changes exacerbates bond - market volatility. During bond - market adjustments, equity markets usually rise, diverting funds from the bond market [4][45]. 3. Current Reflection? In the "Atypical" Recovery of 2026, Be Wary of the "High - volatility" Trap in the Bond Market - In 2026, the economy is expected to recover atypically. Domestic demand will improve with the easing of the "crowding - out effect" of debt resolution and the deepening of domestic - demand expansion policies. External demand will remain strong, and inflation will improve, while monetary policy will be cautious about interest - rate cuts [5][59]. - Nominal GDP repair often leads to fund "rebalancing" and a "strong - stock, weak - bond" pattern. Currently, the market still has room to return to normal, and the difference between the 10Y Treasury yield and the all - A dividend yield is still below 0% [5][64]. - The domestic bond market has insufficient awareness of the "high - volatility" trap in a low - interest environment. With the record - high wealth - management scale and large - scale resident excess savings, the process of large - scale deposit maturity may intensify bond - market volatility [5][69].

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - Focus on core targets in satellite manufacturing and launch sectors, which are expected to maintain stable or improving value under cost reduction trends[3] - Key targets include Shanghai Hanzhou, Zhenlei Technology, and Aerospace Electronics for satellite manufacturing, and Hai Ge Communication, Guo Bo Electronics, and Tong Yu Communication for application terminals[3] - Anticipated mergers and acquisitions in Aerospace Technology Group due to its substantial external assets[3] Group 2: Wind Power - Offshore wind power in China is experiencing rapid growth due to abundant resources and proximity to major electricity consumption centers, with significant long-term growth potential[3] - The offshore wind power installation capacity is projected to increase significantly, with various provinces planning substantial projects, such as Zhejiang's 28 GW and Guangdong's 16 GW[38] - European offshore wind construction is expected to accelerate as financing costs decrease, with an anticipated installation of 8.7 GW by 2026[40] Group 3: Hengbo Co., Ltd. - Hengbo is projected to achieve net profits of 1.52/1.77/2.05 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%/16.6%/15.4%[3] - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the intake system sector, leveraging its cost advantages and customer resources to expand into overseas markets[3] - The PEEK business, through joint ventures, is expected to capture significant market share in high-end manufacturing applications, particularly in humanoid robots[3] Group 4: Tool Industry - The tool industry is experiencing a supply expansion due to high profit margins attracting numerous manufacturers, leading to increased competition[3] - Rising tungsten prices are prompting raw material suppliers to demand cash payments, which may lead to the exit of smaller firms and stabilize the industry structure[3] - Major companies are expected to expand production capacity, enhancing their resilience against market fluctuations[3]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3924 | 0.54 | -1.84 | 0.26 | | 深证综指 | 2499 | 1.22 | -0.81 | 0.81 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.84 | -1.02 | 19.8 | | 中盘指数 | 1.13 | -1.94 | 26.38 | | 小盘指数 | 1.22 | -1.44 | 21.86 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信设备 | 5.96 | 12.58 | 122.51 | | 其他电子Ⅱ | 4.77 | -4.33 | 50.79 | | 元件Ⅱ | 4.08 | -4.02 | 85.89 | | 综合Ⅱ | 3.03 | 3.48 | 46.56 | | ...

Group 1 - Investment Rating: The report assigns an AHP score of 2.38 to the company, placing it in the 39.2% and 41.4% percentiles of the AHP model, indicating a below-average position in the market [9][10] - Core Viewpoint: The company is a leading global supplier of MRI core components, having broken the overseas monopoly in zero-evaporation superconducting magnets, with over 50% of its revenue coming from superconducting products [4][15] - The company has established a strong presence in the MRI market, with a global market share of 4.2% in superconducting magnets and 61% in permanent magnets, making it the largest independent supplier of MRI permanent magnets [4][21] Group 2 - The company is focusing on the development of helium-free and high-field superconducting products, with plans to increase production capacity through fundraising projects [17][19] - The company has achieved significant sales growth in helium-free superconducting products, with orders reaching 54 units by mid-2025, indicating a strong market demand [18] - The company’s revenue and net profit are expected to grow by over 30% in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.91% from 2022 to 2025 [25] Group 3 - The company’s gross margin and net margin are relatively low compared to comparable companies, with gross margins ranging from 23% to 27% and net margins between 9% and 13% during the reporting period [29][30] - The company’s R&D expense ratio is increasing but remains lower than that of comparable companies, indicating potential room for improvement in innovation [33] - The company has experienced a decline in inventory turnover, which is attributed to increased raw material procurement and production preparation for anticipated demand [36] Group 4 - The fundraising will be allocated to projects aimed at increasing production capacity for helium-free superconducting magnets and developing new superconducting technologies, which aligns with industry trends [40][41] - The company plans to enhance its core technology in the MRI sector and expand its applications in new fields, indicating a forward-looking growth strategy [40]

Group 1: Export Data Overview - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and recovering from a previous decline of -1.1% in October[7] - The rise in exports is attributed to the easing of supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand[2] - The number of working days in November increased by 2 days compared to the previous year, contributing to the export rebound[2] Group 2: Import Data Overview - November imports rose by 1.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.9% but up from 1% in October[7] - Processing trade imports surged by 9.2 percentage points to 13.9%, indicating a recovery in trade activity[26] - Major commodities like crude oil saw a rebound in import growth, with an increase of 8.4 percentage points to 8.1%[26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Consumer electronics exports grew by 5.1 percentage points to 3.3%, with significant contributions from mobile phones and LCD display modules[37] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments increasing, while shipbuilding exports fell significantly[43] - Exports to emerging markets, particularly Africa and Latin America, saw notable increases of 17.1 and 12.8 percentage points, reaching 27.7% and 15% respectively[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions and ongoing competitive advantages for Chinese exports are expected to support export growth in the coming months[30] - Potential improvements in exports to the U.S. are anticipated due to reduced tariffs and ongoing inventory replenishment needs[30] - Continued industrialization in emerging economies is likely to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods from China[30]

2025 年 12 月 08 日 亚太新兴市场产品中中国产品表现 出色 ——海外创新产品周报 20251208 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 ETP 研 究 - ⚫ 美国 ETF 创新产品： Horizon 发行多只主动 ETF。上周美国共 23 只新发产品，数字货 币、单股票产品继续发行。Horizon 上周发行 3 只产品，分别投向国际股票和美国中小 盘股票，另有一只控制风险的国际股票产品，这些产品都使用基于价值、动量、质量的量 化方法，控制风险的产品会根据风控模型适当转向货币降低风险；3 只产品都会通过期权 价差策略来增厚收益。 ⚫ 美国 ETF ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 冷空气来袭、库存有望去化，旺季 煤价仍有支撑 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.11.29-2025.12.5） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至12月5日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 589、683、785 元/吨，均环比下跌 30、30、31 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 194.76 万吨，环比上周减少 10.36 万 吨，但同比上升 7. ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the securities industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The securities industry is increasingly recognized for its importance in the capital market, serving as a financing hub and guiding the reallocation of household savings. Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, securities firms have assisted nearly 1,200 technology innovation companies in going public and facilitated over 51 trillion yuan in domestic equity and debt financing [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for securities firms to enhance their service capabilities to the real economy through a "three-in-one" model of investment research, investment, and investment banking, particularly focusing on key national priorities such as artificial intelligence and green energy [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation of household wealth allocation from real estate to the stock market, driven by demographic changes and economic factors, positioning securities firms as key players in this transition [3]. - The report discusses the global asset reallocation opportunities and the role of securities firms in enhancing the weight and pricing power of the renminbi in global asset allocation [3]. - The report anticipates a shift in competition within the securities industry from price-based to value-based, with a differentiation between leading comprehensive brokers and regional specialty brokers [3]. - The report suggests that the securities industry is poised for a new phase of growth driven by improved performance, clearer policies, and the easing of financial pressures, with a notable mismatch between fundamentals and stock prices [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The securities industry has played a crucial role in supporting the real economy and facilitating significant capital market activities, including the listing of technology firms and extensive financing efforts [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant shift in household asset allocation trends, with a growing preference for stock investments over real estate, influenced by various economic factors [3]. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines a future competitive landscape characterized by two types of firms: leading comprehensive brokers focusing on value creation and regional brokers specializing in niche markets [3]. Investment Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the securities industry's future, driven by favorable market conditions and regulatory support, suggesting a potential revaluation of the sector [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong domestic and export sales of excavators, with November 2025 sales reaching 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales were 9,842 units (up 9.11%), while exports were 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [1]. - For the first eleven months of 2025, total excavator sales reached 212,162 units, reflecting a 16.7% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 108,187 units (up 18.6%) and exports at 103,975 units (up 14.9%) [1]. - The report notes that the construction intensity in China remains weak, with average working hours for major construction machinery at 84.2 hours in November, down 13% year-on-year [4]. - Infrastructure investment in China has shown stability, with a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year from January to October 2025, while real estate fixed asset investment decreased by 14.7% [4]. - The report anticipates a rebound in construction demand, as indicated by an increase in the utilization rate of construction cranes in November [4]. - The global engineering machinery market is expected to expand, supported by a decline in interest rates and sustained high mineral prices, with a projected 2% decline in 2025 followed by positive growth in 2026 [4]. - The report identifies key companies to watch in the sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic and Aidi Precision [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - Excavator sales in November 2025 reached 9,842 units, a 9.11% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total of 108,187 units sold domestically from January to November, marking an 18.6% increase [1]. Export Sales - November 2025 saw exports of excavators exceed 10,000 units for the month, with a total of 103,975 units exported from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase [1]. Construction Activity - The average working hours for major construction machinery were reported at 84.2 hours in November, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, indicating weak construction activity [4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment in China showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with specific sectors like pipeline transportation and water transportation showing growth [4]. Market Outlook - The global engineering machinery market is projected to face a 2% decline in 2025, with expectations of recovery in 2026, driven by mining and infrastructure demand [4]. Key Companies - The report highlights several key players in the engineering machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic and Aidi Precision [4].