Group 1: AI Impact on Employment - AI adoption in the U.S. has increased from 3.7% to 10% in two years, with significant impacts on high-exposure industries and young workers[1] - The number of layoffs in October 2025 reached 153,000, a 175% increase year-on-year, with 21.7% of layoffs occurring in the tech sector[1] - Despite concerns, AI is not the primary cause of the employment downturn; the correlation between AI adoption and employment growth is weak (R²=0.09)[2] Group 2: Employment Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market has experienced a "low recruitment, low layoffs" state, with non-farm employment numbers showing a significant decline since early 2025[3] - Illegal immigration net inflow decreased by 1.6 to 2 million in 2025, explaining about 50% of the employment slowdown[3] - Government layoffs and tariff impacts contributed to 37% of the employment decline, while the influence of AI on white-collar jobs was only 7.6%[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, the labor supply may continue to contract while demand stabilizes, maintaining a low equilibrium in employment levels[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, with a risk of triggering the "Sam Rule" at around 4.7%[4] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing monetary policy amid a "K-shaped" economic recovery, where labor shortages could enhance labor share while surpluses may lead to economic divergence[4]

Core Insights - The report discusses the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments, specifically the reduction of risk factors for stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and the low-volatility 100 index from 0.3 to 0.27, and for stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held for over two years from 0.4 to 0.36 [4][17][21] - The adjustment is seen as a marginal impact, with the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation by insurance funds in the long term [21][26] Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factor Adjustment Impact - The report presents three scenarios for the proportion of stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and low-volatility 100: current situation at 13.0%, mid-term neutral at 42.1%, and mid-term optimistic at 50.3% [9][19] - For stocks held for over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the current situation is at 0.6%, mid-term neutral at 1.9%, and mid-term optimistic at 2.9% [9][19] - The minimum capital released due to the risk factor adjustment is estimated at 141 billion, 457 billion, and 554 billion under the three scenarios, respectively, with potential increases in stock investment of 514 billion, 1669 billion, and 2015 billion [17][19][21] Insurance Fund Allocation Trends - As of Q3 2025, insurance companies' investment in stocks and funds exceeded 15%, nearing a new high since 2015, but still below the regulatory cap of 30% [21][22] - If the allocation to stocks and funds were to increase to the 30% cap, an additional 32,431 billion could be invested in stocks [25][21] - The report emphasizes that the increase in equity allocation by insurance companies is a gradual process, with significant potential for future growth [21][26] Policy Implications - The adjustment of risk factors is viewed as a supportive policy for encouraging long-term capital market participation, particularly for state-owned insurance companies that have already increased their equity allocation [21][26] - The report suggests that the adjustment will provide additional incentives for other insurance companies to increase their equity investments [21][26] - The overall impact of the risk factor adjustment is considered marginal compared to the potential for long-term increases in equity allocation by insurance funds [21][26]

相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 建筑装饰 2025 年 12 月 07 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com REITs 项目行业范围拓展，支撑盘活存量资产 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251201-20251205） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 1.1 建筑行业周跌幅-0.07%，子行业国际工程表现最好 上周建筑行业涨幅-0.07%，跑输上证综指（+0.37%）、深证成指（+1.26%）、中小 板（+0.76%）、创业板（+1.86%）、沪深 300（+1.28 ...

2025 年 12 月 06 日 转债价格中位数稳定在 130 元以上 ——转债周度跟踪 20251205 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 ⚫ 本周权益及转债市场先弱后强，由于正股表现相对偏弱，高平价区估值逆势拉升支撑转债 价格，转债价格中位数稳定在 130 元以上。结合权益震荡期表现来看，转债抗跌意愿强， 良好的供需格局对估值仍有较强支撑，重点关注：一是近期偏债型转债估值震荡回落，面 临平价下行、基金赎回、久期缩短等多重压力；二是由于今年转债不强赎期限多以 3 个月 为主，不强赎转债将逐步重新进入强赎计数期，超预期强赎对高平价转债冲击较大。结合 市场预期及政策表态来看，权益预期仍偏向乐观，转债市场市场仍有整体会机会，结构上 剩余期限缩短背景下重点防范短久期转债时间价值衰减、转债超预期强赎等风险。 ⚫ 2. 转债估值 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@sws ...

行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 高端酒批价回落 关注需求承接 食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关研究 《茅台股东会传递务实信号 月度金股推荐 泸州老窖 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251124-20251128》 2025/11/30 《市场大幅调整 板块相对跑赢 ——食品 饮料行业周报 20251117-20251121》 2025/11/22 《黎明前夕，曙光将至——2026 年食品 ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 证 券 研 究 报 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(res ...

Group 1: Strategic Overview - China is transitioning from a global rule adapter to a co-builder and responsible stakeholder in international governance[3] - The 14th Five-Year Plan (14th FYP) focused on economic security, while the 15th Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) emphasizes "development and security" across all sectors[3] - The 15th FYP identifies emerging industries as "pillar industries," focusing on new energy and new materials, with a core strategy of cluster development and large-scale application[3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The 15th FYP highlights ten key investment areas: 1) Artificial Intelligence, 2) Robotics, 3) Aerospace, 4) Drones/Low-altitude Economy, 5) Strategic Resource Metals, 6) Shipping, 7) Controlled Nuclear Fusion, 8) Energy Storage, 9) Brain-Machine Interfaces, 10) Innovative Pharmaceuticals[3] - The Chinese robotics industry is transitioning from product definition to commercialization, with AI expected to empower various sectors by 2026[3] - The aerospace industry is a key focus, with the establishment of a new space administration and a three-year action plan for commercial aerospace development[3] Group 3: Economic and Security Considerations - The 15th FYP emphasizes the strategic importance of national defense and security, with a focus on political security as a priority[3] - The plan includes new initiatives for the development and reserve of strategic mineral resources, enhancing the national security framework[3] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and slower-than-expected industry capacity adjustments, influenced by international geopolitical changes[3]

2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关研究 《AI Infra：重点关注数据层软件及 MaaS——计算机行业周报 20251124- 20251128》 2025/11/29 《谷歌大模型超预期了吗? 国内 AI 2026 年策略! 华为容器热点! ——计算机行业 周报 20251117-20251121 》 2025/11/22 证券分析师 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后了 2026 计算机年度策略：算力聚沙成塔，应用乘风而起。 ● 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@swsresearch.com 徐平平 A0230525080002 xupp@swsresearch.com 曹峥 A0230525040002 caozheng@swsresearch.com 陈晴华 A0230525100001 chenqh@swsres ...

2025 年 12 月 06 日 新版行业清单出炉,基础设施 REITs EST FB ! 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.1-2025.12.5） 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 REITs 即将迈入商业不 -公募 REITs 周度跟 踪 (2025.11.24-2025.11.28)》 2025/11/29 《市场承压回调，关注超跌品种的 -公募 REITs 周度跟踪 電空机 台 (2025.11.17-2025.11.21)》 2025/11/22 《指数修复，发改委支持民间项目 -公募 REITs 周度跟 发行 REITs- 踪 (2025.11.10-2025.11.14)》 2025/11/15 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yanqxf@swsresearch.com 城市更新设施、高端酒店等纳入基础设施 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that insurance companies have lowered risk factors for long-term holdings in the CSI 300, the China Securities Low Volatility 100, and the STAR Market, with state-owned insurance companies increasing their positions first, followed by the risk factor adjustments. This adjustment provides an additional incentive for other insurance companies to increase equity allocations, with a potential increase in equity investment space amounting to hundreds of billions under unchanged solvency ratios [4][5]. - The report highlights that the spring market's economic and industrial catalysts are not yet clear, and the supply-demand logic of funds may become the main contradiction. Expectations for the insurance "opening red" trading are rising, and high-dividend market trends may begin to emerge before early 2026 [4][5]. - The report suggests that the risk factor adjustments may encourage long-term capital to enter the market, particularly benefiting state-owned insurance companies that have already allocated a high proportion of new premiums to the market. The equity investment risk factor reduction is seen as a delayed policy optimization [5]. Group 2 - The report maintains that the spring market may be a small-scale market, with expectations of a rebound within a high-level oscillation for the overall market. For the oversold technology sector, it may transition into a phase of oscillation after sufficient adjustment [6]. - The mid-term judgment indicates a "two-stage bull market," with the technology structural bull market in 2025 at a high level, and subsequent adjustments may occur. A comprehensive bull market is expected in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will see a "Bull Market 1.0" characterized by oscillation and a focus on cyclical and value styles, while the second half will transition to a "Bull Market 2.0" where technology and advanced manufacturing will dominate [8]. Group 3 - The report identifies potential triggers for the spring market, including the policy layout period starting in mid-December and the "two sessions" in 2026, which may activate policy and industrial themes [6]. - The report emphasizes that the spring market may serve as a foundation for cyclical assets, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology as potential alpha sources. The insurance "opening red" may also highlight high-dividend opportunities [8]. - The report notes that the overall adjustment in technology may lead to a widespread rebound, with particular attention on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense, as well as opportunities in AI computing, storage, energy storage, and robotics [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, highlighting key investment opportunities in AI computing, embodied intelligence, and AI applications [3][4]. Core Insights - The computer sector has seen an 18% increase from early 2025 to December 2, 2025, ranking 12th among all industries, driven by fundamentals and thematic investments [3][4]. - The gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with expectations for further convergence and potential surpassing in certain areas by 2026 [3][20]. - The importance of AI infrastructure is increasing, with a focus on software layers that are rapidly expanding in market size and penetration [3][4]. - The report identifies key companies benefiting from AI advancements, including 合合信息, which is positioned as a leader in intelligent text recognition [3][4]. Summary by Sections 2026 Computer Annual Strategy - The strategy emphasizes the aggregation of computing power and the rise of applications, with AI being the main theme for 2026 [3][4]. - The report notes a significant rebound in revenue and net profit for the computer sector in 2025, confirming a fundamental turning point [9][10]. Large Models - The report discusses the acceleration of monetization for large models in 2025, with a focus on AI programming and multi-modal applications [20][23]. - It highlights that domestic models are catching up in performance and cost-effectiveness compared to their international counterparts [20][23]. Computing Power - The trend towards supernodes is clear, with domestic computing power achieving overall performance improvements [3][4]. - Quantum computing is beginning to move towards commercialization, with several breakthroughs expected in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. Applications - The report indicates that industry know-how serves as a competitive moat, with software entering an optimal layout period [3][4]. - It predicts that many companies will see AI revenue exceed 10%, marking a technological revolution in the software industry [3][4]. Key Companies and Investment Targets - The report lists several companies as key investment targets, including 金山办公, 海康威视, and 浪潮信息, among others, across various segments such as AIGC and digital economy leaders [3][4].