债 券 周 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 27 日 主题风格活跃，高价券领涨 ——转债周度跟踪 20251226 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 ⚫ 本周中证 2000 领涨，微盘股延续修复，转债风格适配、明显跟涨，商业航天概念持续火 热带动军工板块表现亮眼，金融、消费等临期大盘转债依旧承压，加之强赎风险阶段性回 落，偏股转债受益于平价和估值双击，涨幅明显好于大盘偏债转债。在经历强势修复后， 转债重回前期高点，主要表现为百元溢价率、转债价格中位数等均距离前期高点"一步之 遥"。但与 11 月上旬的修复行情相比，本轮表现较强的主要是偏股型高价转债，而 11 月 上旬则是偏债型低价转债较强，因此本轮强势修复后转债弹性要强于前期，虽然回撤会同 步放大， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, highlighting the potential for growth in leading companies with low valuations and high dividends [6][7]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector has underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with the sector index rising by 0.5% while the broader index increased by 1.9% [6][8]. - Key companies such as Feike Electric, Guangfeng Technology, and Sanhua Intelligent Control have shown significant gains, while companies like Beilong and Hisense Vision have faced declines [6][10]. - Sanhua Intelligent Control is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.874 to 4.649 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25-50% [6][13]. - Haier Smart Home has sold a 49% stake in its Indian subsidiary, maintaining control while partnering with local investors to enhance market presence [6][14]. Summary by Sections Air Conditioning - Online retail volume for air conditioners in November 2025 was 2.09 million units, down 26.2% year-on-year, while offline sales dropped by 44.8% to 351,000 units [4][35]. - The average online retail price increased by 0.2% to 3,131 yuan per unit, while the offline average price decreased by 13.0% to 4,205 yuan [4][35]. Kitchen Appliances - For range hoods, online sales fell by 15.2% to 502,000 units, and offline sales decreased by 34% to 132,000 units [5][37]. - The average online price for range hoods rose by 17.4% to 2,011 yuan, while the offline price dropped by 7.7% to 4,296 yuan [5][37]. - Dishwashers saw online sales decline by 29.3% to 170,000 units and offline sales drop by 40.2% to 28,000 units [5][41]. - The average online price for dishwashers increased by 2.7% to 4,590 yuan, while the offline price decreased by 1.1% to 8,241 yuan [5][41]. Industry Dynamics - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the continued effects of the trade-in policy and the growing demand in emerging markets [7]. - Companies are diversifying into new technology sectors, including robotics and data center temperature control, to drive growth [7]. - The report highlights the resilience of leading companies in the face of international trade fluctuations and their strategic positioning in global markets [7].

策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 27 日 春季主题行情已赢在当下 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/22-25/12/27) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 图表目录 | 图 1：短期中证 A500ETF 份额数快速上行，主要来自于规模最大产品的贡献 3 | | --- | | 图 2：电子和电力设备在中证 A500 中的权重较高，中证 A500ETF 规模扩张，构 | | 成短期行业反弹的基础 3 | | 图 3：量化情绪指标跟踪 5 | | 图 4：重点 ETF 跟踪 7 | 一 周 回 顾 展 望 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一、短期 A 股连续上涨， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve initiated the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the end of the QE era rather than a restart[1] - The RMP is set at a scale of $40 billion for the first month, expected to remain high until April 2026, then potentially slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month[2] - RMP is a technical operation aimed at managing liquidity without altering the Fed's policy stance, primarily focusing on interest rate policy[3] Group 2: Differences Between RMP and QE - RMP and QE both lead to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet but differ fundamentally in their nature; RMP is for liquidity management while QE is for yield curve management[4] - RMP is market-neutral, whereas QE is market-non-neutral, affecting asset prices differently[5] - The Fed is unlikely to restart QE until interest rates approach zero, as lowering rates is a more effective demand stimulus before reaching that threshold[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - As of December 24, 2025, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, with net issuance of U.S. debt declining[7] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 is projected at $1.77 trillion, lower than the $1.95 trillion from the previous year[8] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was 4.3% (annualized), exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending[9]

Profit Trends - In November, industrial enterprise profits fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to -13.4%[2] - The operating profit margin decreased by 5.4 percentage points to -11.5% compared to the previous month[5] - Other income items significantly dragged down profit growth, with a decline of 9.4 percentage points to -5.1%[2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - Industrial enterprise revenue showed a slight improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in November, down from 1.8% in the previous month[7] - The cost rate for industrial enterprises was 84.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year[21] - The metallurgical chain experienced a cost rate of 85.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than last year[21] Industry-Specific Insights - The beverage and alcohol sector saw a dramatic profit decline of 93.4 percentage points to -90.4%, contributing to an overall profit drop of 5.6 percentage points[16] - The actual revenue growth rate for the petrochemical, metallurgical, and consumer chains improved, with increases of 1.9, 3.9, and 2.4 percentage points respectively[27] - The wood, leather, and instrument sectors reported significant revenue growth, with increases of 41.1%, 25.2%, and 24.2% respectively[39] Inventory and Receivables - The nominal inventory growth rate rose by 0.9 percentage points to 4.6% in November, while the actual inventory growth was 7.7%[45] - Accounts receivable growth remained low at 5.5%, indicating improved collection cycles due to policies aimed at accelerating debt repayment[29] Future Outlook - High cost pressures remain a key constraint on profit recovery, with ongoing "anti-involution" policies expected to gradually alleviate these pressures[31] - Attention should be paid to the potential negative effects of upstream price surges on corporate profitability[32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the AI computing industry in 2026, particularly focusing on Huawei's advancements and opportunities in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the domestic AI computing industry, with Huawei expected to unveil a series of new products and technologies that the market has not yet fully reacted to [3][4]. - Huawei's Ascend 950 series, including the Ascend 950PR and Ascend 950DT chips, is set to significantly enhance AI computing capabilities, with a focus on cost-effective solutions and high performance [4][9]. - The report highlights the importance of storage and connectivity in the evolution of AI computing chips, with Huawei making substantial innovations in these areas [4][9]. - The IPOs of Zhiyuan and MiniMax mark significant milestones in the AI model startup landscape, representing different business models in the sector [3][37]. Summary by Sections Huawei's Computing Innovations - Huawei is positioned as a comprehensive ICT manufacturer, integrating various components from semiconductor supply chains to software ecosystems, which is expected to lead to system-level advancements [4][7]. - The Ascend 950 series is designed to support industry-standard low-precision data formats, significantly improving training efficiency and inference throughput [7][9]. - The upcoming Atlas 950 supernode, based on the Ascend 950DT chip, is expected to achieve unprecedented performance metrics, including an FP8 computing power of 8 EFLOPS and an interconnect bandwidth of 16 PB/s [22][23]. Zhiyuan and MiniMax Comparison - Zhiyuan, backed by Tsinghua University, focuses on B2B localized deployment, achieving rapid revenue growth with a projected revenue of 3.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 150.9% [39][44]. - MiniMax, established in 2021, emphasizes efficient model architecture and rapid commercialization of consumer products, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas markets [50][51]. - Both companies represent distinct paths in the AI model startup ecosystem, with Zhiyuan focusing on enterprise solutions and MiniMax targeting consumer applications [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, particularly regarding Huawei's advancements in AI computing capabilities for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - Huawei is expected to play a significant role in the AI computing industry in 2026, with a series of new products and technologies anticipated to be launched, which the market has not yet fully reacted to [3][4]. - The Ascend 950 series, including the Ascend 950PR and Ascend 950DT chips, is set to be released in Q1 2026, featuring significant improvements in performance and cost efficiency [3][9]. - The report highlights the IPOs of Zhiyuan and MiniMax, marking them as representative companies in the large model startup sector, with Zhiyuan focusing on B2B and MiniMax on B2C models [3][38]. Summary by Sections Huawei's Computing Innovations - Huawei's Ascend chip series is planned to include four products over three years, with the Ascend 950 series being the latest [4][5]. - The Ascend 950PR chip will utilize Huawei's self-developed low-cost HBM, significantly reducing investment costs in AI inference and recommendation scenarios [9][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of storage and computing updates, with Huawei's innovations in AI computing expected to drive system-level advancements [4][7]. Zhiyuan and MiniMax Comparison - Zhiyuan, founded in 2019, focuses on a comprehensive MaaS platform with a strong emphasis on localized deployment for B2B clients, achieving rapid revenue growth [39][40]. - MiniMax, established in 2021, prioritizes efficient model architecture and rapid commercialization of products, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas markets [52][53]. - Both companies are positioned to represent different paths in the large model sector, with Zhiyuan's focus on B2B and MiniMax's emphasis on B2C applications [66]. Key Company Updates - Inspur Information is noted for its strong market share in AI servers, with new product launches aimed at supporting large model training and inference [68]. - TaxFriend's AI digital accounting solutions have exceeded expectations, indicating a strong product-market fit in the evolving AI landscape [70].

2025 年 12 月 27 日 超跌反弹, 申报加速 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.22-2025.12.26） 相关研究 《中核水电 REIT 认购倍数续创新高 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2025.12.15-2025.12.19)》 2025/12/20 《板块分化调整, 中核水电 REIT 即 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 将间价 (2025.12.8-2025.12.12)》 2025/12/13 《新版行业清单出炉,基础设施 -公募 REITs 周 REITs 再扩围! - 度跟踪 (2025.12.1-2025.12.5)》 2025/12/06 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 事件扰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Event disturbance factors weakened. The market continued its decline from the previous week on Monday and Tuesday, with a cumulative decline of 4.35% from the previous Monday to Tuesday this week. Market sentiment reversed on Wednesday and Thursday, with strong rebounds of 2.33% and 0.99% respectively, pushing the index back to the levels of last Tuesday and Wednesday, but the previous decline was not fully recovered. It fell slightly again on Friday. After the "decline → recovery" this time, equity REITs rose slightly by 0.12% overall, while concession - type REITs still fell by 3.61%. The pace of project declaration/acceptance on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges significantly accelerated this week, laying a project reserve foundation for the supply - side growth of infrastructure REITs in 2026 [3]. - As of December 26, 2025, 20 REITs have been successfully issued this year, with a total issuance scale of 40.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37.6%. Four newly - issued public REITs and two expanded - offering public REITs made new progress this week. There are currently 13 REITs in the approval process that have been declared, 1 has been questioned and responded, 1 has passed the review, and 1 has been registered and is awaiting listing. For expanded - offering REITs, 3 have been declared [3]. - This week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index (932047.CSI) closed at 1014.80 points, up 1.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.39 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 1.01 percentage points. The CSI REITs Total Return Index has risen 4.85% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the CSI 300 by 13.51 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 6.06 percentage points. In terms of project attributes, equity - type REITs rose 1.95% this week, and concession - type REITs rose 0.61%. In terms of asset types, the affordable housing, warehousing and logistics, park, and data center sectors performed well [3]. - In terms of liquidity, the average daily turnover rates of equity - type/concession - type REITs this week were 0.51%/0.60%, an increase of 12.26/18.43 BP compared with last week. The trading volume this week was 509 million/202 million shares, a week - on - week increase of 33.57%/43.95%. The environmental protection and water services sector was the most active [3]. - In terms of valuation, according to the ChinaBond valuation yield, the yields of equity - type/concession - type REITs were 4.08%/5.04% respectively. The transportation, warehousing and logistics, and park sectors ranked among the top three [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Market: A Total of 4 Newly - Issued Public REITs Made New Progress - As of December 26, 2025, 79 REITs have been issued in total, with a total issuance scale of 203.5 billion yuan, a total market value of 219.9 billion yuan, and a circulating market value of 116.6 billion yuan. In terms of two major project attributes, 56 equity - type REITs and 23 concession - type REITs have been issued. In terms of eight major asset types, 8 affordable housing REITs, 11 warehousing and logistics REITs, 20 park REITs, 12 consumer REITs, 2 data center REITs, 13 transportation REITs, 10 energy REITs, and 3 environmental protection and water services REITs have been issued [14]. - Four newly - issued public REITs made new progress this week: 3 were newly declared/accepted (Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT, CICC Torch Industrial Park REIT, Bosera Shandong TieTou Road and Bridge REIT), and the fundraising of Huaxia CNNC Clean Energy REIT ended, with the offline and public effective subscription multiples reaching 340 and 392 times respectively. Two expanded - offering public REITs also made new progress: the expansion of AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT was completed, and the expanded shares of Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT were listed [3]. - Currently, in the approval process, there are 13 REITs that have been declared, 1 has been questioned and responded, 1 has passed the review, and 1 has been registered and is awaiting listing. For expanded - offering REITs, 3 have been declared [3]. 2. Secondary Market: The Index Recovered This Week 2.1 Market Review: The CSI REITs Total Return Index Rose 1.56% - This week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1014.80 points, up 1.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.39 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 1.01 percentage points. The CSI REITs Total Return Index has risen 4.85% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the CSI 300 by 13.51 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 6.06 percentage points [3]. - In terms of project attributes, equity - type REITs rose 1.95% this week, and concession - type REITs rose 0.61%. In terms of asset types, the affordable housing (+3.14%), warehousing and logistics (+2.20%), park (+2.11%), and data center (+1.80%) sectors performed well. Among individual bonds, 63 rose and 15 fell this week. CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (+7.86%), Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT (+5.99%), and Bosera Tianjin Binhai High - tech Industrial Park REIT (+5.94%) ranked among the top three, while ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT (-5.04%), Guotai Haitong Jinan Energy Heating REIT (-4.39%), and Harvest PowerChina Clean Energy REIT (-3.87%) ranked among the bottom three [3]. 2.2 Liquidity: Both Turnover Rate and Trading Volume Increased - The average daily turnover rates of equity - type/concession - type REITs this week were 0.51%/0.60%, an increase of 12.26/18.43 BP compared with last week. The trading volume this week was 509 million/202 million shares, a week - on - week increase of 33.57%/43.95%. The environmental protection and water services sector was the most active [3]. 2.3 Valuation: The Affordable Housing Sector Had a Higher Valuation - According to the ChinaBond valuation yield, the yields of equity - type/concession - type REITs were 4.08%/5.04% respectively. The transportation (6.20%), warehousing and logistics (5.61%), and park (4.82%) sectors ranked among the top three [3]. 3. This Week's Key News and Important Announcements Key News - On December 19, 2025, Shanghai Real Estate Group launched a tender for the public REIT fund manager and special plan manager of its commercial real estate REIT project [35]. - On December 22, 2025, the second selection for the 2025 rental housing public REIT fund manager and special plan manager service procurement project of Zhengzhou Chengfa Anju Technology Co., Ltd. was launched [35]. - On December 23, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Several Opinions on Promoting the Large - scale Development of Concentrated Solar Power", proposing to support eligible concentrated solar power projects to issue REITs, asset - backed securities, etc. to revitalize existing assets and promote a virtuous cycle of investment and financing [35]. - On December 24, 2025, the tender result for the infrastructure REIT fund manager of Nanjiang Energy Group was announced, with GF Fund winning the bid. The annual fund management fee during the term is 0.2%, and the pre - issuance fee is 2.45 million yuan [35]. - On December 25, 2025, the Sichuan Securities Regulatory Bureau focused on the use of innovative financing tools, strengthened the interpretation of policies such as commercial real estate REITs, and encouraged enterprises to actively respond, conduct asset surveys, and prepare for the launch of commercial real estate REITs pilots. After the meeting, the Sichuan Bureau and the exchange visited enterprises interested in issuing commercial real estate REITs [35]. - On December 25, 2025, eight departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the Western Land - Sea New Corridor", mentioning the need to make good use of diversified financing channels such as REITs to support the construction of the Western Land - Sea New Corridor [35]. - On December 26, 2025, Huang Jianshan, the deputy director of the Bond Regulatory Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated that the CSRC is steadily promoting the pilot of commercial real estate REITs [35]. Important Announcements - Multiple REITs announced dividends, including ICBC Hebei Expressway REIT, Hua'an Bailian Consumer REIT, CICC Puluosi REIT, and CITIC Construction Investment SPIC New Energy REIT [35][36]. - Some REITs announced their operation data for November 2025, including Huaxia Nanjing Traffic Expressway REIT, ICBC Hebei Expressway REIT, etc. [35][36]. - Some REITs announced the lifting of the ban on strategic placement shares, including China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation REIT, Huaxia Heda High - tech REIT, etc. [35][36]. - The expanded shares of Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT were listed for trading, and the expansion of AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT was completed [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the overseas education sector, particularly highlighting New Oriental as a key player [10]. Core Insights - The overseas education sector is experiencing improved operational efficiency and accelerated profit margin expansion, with New Oriental expected to report a revenue of $1.165 billion for Q2 FY26, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [5][10]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in non-GAAP net profit for New Oriental, projected at $63 million, which is a 77.8% increase year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.4%, expanding by 2 percentage points [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Education - **Market Review**: The education index rose by 2.8% in the week of December 19-25, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 13.1% [4]. - **Company Update**: New Oriental's revenue is expected to reach $1.165 billion, with the education business (including cultural tourism) contributing $957 million, a growth of 11% year-on-year [5][10]. - **Study Abroad Business**: The revenue from study abroad exam training and consulting is projected to decline by 3% to $242 million, reflecting a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from the previous year [2][5]. - **New Business Growth**: New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are expected to grow by 21% to $364 million, driven by differentiated offerings for primary and secondary education [3][6]. - **Operating Profit Margin Improvement**: Despite a slowdown in high-margin study abroad business, the increase in competency business margins is expected to offset this. The non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to expand by approximately 2 percentage points to 4.7% [6][10]. 2. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - **Market Review**: The Hang Seng Healthcare Index saw a slight increase of 0.02%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.24 percentage points [12]. - **Key Events**: Notable transactions include Sanofi's $2.2 billion acquisition of vaccine company Dynavax, which has a marketed hepatitis B vaccine and a promising shingles vaccine candidate [14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies with active business development opportunities and clinical progress in key pipelines, including companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [15]. 3. Overseas Social Services - **Ctrip's Q3 Performance**: Ctrip reported a 16% year-on-year revenue increase to $18.4 billion, with strong performance across various business segments, particularly in international OTA platforms [17]. - **Tongcheng Travel's Q3 Performance**: Tongcheng Travel's revenue grew by 10% to $5.5 billion, with a notable increase in accommodation and core OTA business revenues [18]. - **Key Focus**: The report highlights potential growth in the outbound travel sector and the importance of hotel management services as additional growth drivers [19].