Investment Rating - The report indicates a high level of optimism for the refrigerants and glyphosate sectors, suggesting a continuation of high demand and price stability in these markets [7][12]. Core Insights - The glyphosate market is experiencing sustained price increases due to strong downstream demand, particularly from regions like Europe and Africa, leading to tight supply conditions [21][25]. - The refrigerant market is benefiting from seasonal demand spikes and supply constraints due to quota policies, which are supporting higher prices for products like R32 and R134a [28][4]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the civil explosives sector driven by infrastructure projects and the Belt and Road Initiative, recommending specific companies for investment [5]. Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Glyphosate prices rose to 26,399 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from the previous week, with a weekly production of 0.9 million tons, down 18.5% [21][25]. - Refrigerant prices for R22 increased to 35,500 CNY/ton, R134a to 50,500 CNY/ton, and R32 to 56,500 CNY/ton, reflecting strong demand and tight supply [4][28]. (2) Polyurethane: MDI and TDI Price Movements - MDI prices increased significantly, with the average price for polymer MDI in South China at 16,000 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous week [19]. - TDI prices in East China decreased to 16,750 CNY/ton, down 3.46% due to seasonal demand weakness [19]. (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Glyphosate and Fertilizer Price Trends - Glyphosate's profitability decreased slightly to 3,407.2 CNY/ton, while the market remains tight with reduced inventory levels [21][25]. - Urea prices rose to 1,779 CNY/ton, and potassium chloride prices increased to 3,285 CNY/ton, driven by export policies and supply constraints [25][27]. (4) Fluorochemicals: Refrigerant Price Increases - The report notes that R32 and R134a prices have risen due to increased demand from high temperatures and limited supply flexibility [28]. - The price of raw materials like fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid remained stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario in the upstream market [28].

Report Information - Report Title: Public Offering REITs Weekly Report (August 4 - August 10, 2025) - Analysts: Xu Chao, Dai Zihan 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the public offering REITs market fluctuated and declined, with an increase in trading volume. The indexes of property - type and franchise - type public offering REITs both fell, and most public offering REITs products declined. There are 22 public offering REITs funds waiting to be listed, and the market is expected to expand. Given the asset shortage, public offering REITs have high - dividend and medium - low - risk advantages, with a relatively high cost - performance ratio for allocation [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Secondary Market: This Week, the Public Offering REITs Market Fluctuated and Declined - Market Index: As of August 8, 2025, the China Securities REITs Index dropped 0.33% to 867.98 compared with last week, and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index also declined 0.33% to 1097.31 [11]. - Trading Volume and Turnover: The total trading volume of the REITs market this week was 806 million shares, the same as last week. The trading amount was 3.667 billion yuan, a 1.47% increase from last week. The market turnover rate was 3.78%, compared with 3.84% last week [13]. - Index by Underlying Asset Type: The indexes of property - type and franchise - type public offering REITs both declined, by 0.28% and 0.15% respectively. Among property - type REITs, only warehousing and logistics REITs rose 0.22%, while others declined. Among franchise - type REITs, energy infrastructure and ecological environmental protection REITs rose 0.54% and 0.23% respectively, while municipal facilities, water conservancy facilities, and transportation infrastructure REITs declined [16][19]. - Trading Volume and Turnover by Type: Most types of public offering REITs saw a decline in trading volume and turnover. The trading volume of water conservancy facilities, warehousing and logistics, and other types of REITs decreased, while that of municipal facilities and transportation infrastructure REITs increased. The daily average turnover of energy infrastructure and municipal facilities REITs exceeded 1%, and that of most other types decreased [21][23]. - Performance of Single Products: Most public offering REITs declined. Among them, Huatai Zijin Baowan Logistics Warehouse REIT, ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT, and Huaxia Nanjing Traffic Expressway REIT had the highest weekly increases, while ICBC Hebei Expressway Group Expressway REIT, Huaxia Capital First - time Outlet REIT, and Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT had the highest weekly declines [25]. 3.2 Primary Market: 22 Public Offering REITs Funds Are Waiting to Be Listed - Issued Products: As of August 8, 2025, a total of 73 public offering REITs have been issued, with a total issuance scale of 191 billion yuan. Since 2025, 14 public offering REITs have been issued, and there were no new issuances in August 2025 [3]. - Products Waiting to Be Listed: There are 22 public offering REITs funds waiting to be listed, including 11 initial offerings and 11 expansions. In terms of project status, 8 have passed, 9 have been feedbacked, 4 have been questioned, and 1 has been accepted. By type, there are 6 park - type, 3 consumer infrastructure - type, 4 warehousing and logistics - type, and 4 affordable rental housing - type in industrial REITs, and 3 energy - type and 1 ecological environmental protection - type in franchise - type REITs [33]. 3.3 Public Offering REITs Policies and Market Dynamics - Tianjin Policy: On August 7, according to Tianjin Daily, the General Office of the CPC Tianjin Municipal Committee and the General Office of the Tianjin Municipal People's Government issued an opinion on further optimizing the business environment, suggesting using financing tools such as REITs, ABS, and science - innovation bonds to provide diversified financing channels for various business entities [36]. - Guotai Junan Chengtou Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT: On August 8, the fund manager Guotai Haitong Asset Management announced that the REIT plans to apply for expansion and purchase new infrastructure projects. Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co., Ltd. plans to use rental housing projects in Minhang District, Shanghai as underlying assets to participate in the expansion [38]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - Market Trend: This week, the REITs index fluctuated and declined, and the trading volume of the public offering REITs market increased. The indexes of property - type and franchise - type public offering REITs both declined, with municipal facilities having the highest decline. - Market Outlook: This Friday, Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT were listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, marking an important stage in the development of China's REITs market. Since this year, 14 public offering REITs have been established, with a total scale of over 25 billion yuan. With 22 REITs funds waiting to be listed, the market is expected to expand, and its activity is expected to increase. - Investment Value: Given the asset shortage, public offering REITs have high - dividend and medium - low - risk advantages, with a relatively high cost - performance ratio for allocation [5][39][40].

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is "Positive" for the agriculture sector, indicating expected returns above the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [6][51]. Core Views 1. **Livestock Industry Chain** - The swine market is experiencing rising epidemic risks and policy support, which is expected to enhance the motivation for capacity reduction. The average price of live pigs is currently 13.71 CNY/kg, down 0.62 CNY from last week, while the average price for 15 kg piglets is 31.24 CNY/kg, down 1.48 CNY [5][19]. - The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses has increased to 31.9%, up 0.36 percentage points from last week and 7.26 percentage points year-on-year. The total output of pigs from 16 listed companies reached 100.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [5][19]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 40.43 million heads, down 370,000 from the peak last year. The average profit per head for self-bred pigs is 45 CNY, an increase of 2 CNY from last week [6][20]. 2. **Poultry Industry** - Chicken prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the average price for broiler chickens at 3.54 CNY/lb, up 0.13 CNY from last week. The average price for white feather chickens is 13.9 CNY/kg, up 0.2 CNY [21][23]. - The industry is at a historically high capacity level, with limited imports in the first seven months of the year. The profitability per chicken has turned positive at 0.62 CNY [21][23]. - The yellow chicken market is also seeing price declines, with average prices at 9.77 CNY/kg for Lihua yellow chicken, down 0.02 CNY from last month [23][24]. 3. **Seed and Planting Industry** - The seed industry is benefiting from ongoing policy optimization and the promotion of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The long-term investment value of leading seed companies is highlighted as they are at historical low valuations [10][24]. - Grain prices are experiencing short-term adjustments but are expected to rise in the medium term due to reduced imports and adverse weather conditions. The average purchase price for corn is 2441 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY from last week [12][24]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Buy [3] - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. - Buy [3] - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. - Buy [3]

- The report provides an overview of the major asset markets, including equities, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange[5][10][11][33][40] - The report highlights the performance of various indices in the A-share market, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others, with specific percentage changes for each[10][12][13] - The report also details the performance of different sectors within the A-share market, noting significant gains in sectors like military, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, and declines in sectors like pharmaceuticals, computers, and retail[10][15] - The report includes information on the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with specific indices and their percentage changes, as well as sector performance within the Hong Kong market[11][18][20][22] - The report covers the performance of the US stock market, including indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, along with other international indices[11][26][27] - The report provides details on the bond market, including changes in yields for various government and corporate bonds, as well as credit spreads and term spreads[28][29][30][31] - The report discusses the performance of the commodity market, listing the percentage changes for various commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and others[33][34][35][36][38] - The report includes information on the foreign exchange market, detailing the exchange rates of various currencies against the RMB and their percentage changes[40][42] - The report provides an overview of the fund market, including the number of newly established funds, their types, and their sizes[43][44] - The report details the overall performance of different types of funds, including equity funds, balanced funds, fixed income funds, FOFs, commodity funds, and QDII funds, with specific percentage returns for each category over different time periods[49][50][51] - The report lists the top-performing funds over the past week, month, year, and year-to-date, along with their specific returns and other details[52] - The report also lists the worst-performing funds over the same periods, with specific returns and other details[53]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels and tracking changes in crowding over time[3] - **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide specific details on the mathematical or algorithmic process used to construct the crowding monitoring model. However, it is implied that the model uses historical data and metrics to assess crowding levels across industries[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively highlights industries with significant crowding changes, such as the notable increases in crowding for the non-ferrous metals and beauty care sectors, providing actionable insights for investors[3] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is used to identify potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of premium rates over a rolling window[4] - **Model Construction Process**: - The Z-score is calculated as: $ Z = \frac{(X - \mu)}{\sigma} $ - Where $ X $ is the current premium rate, $ \mu $ is the mean premium rate over the rolling window, and $ \sigma $ is the standard deviation of the premium rate over the same period - The model identifies ETFs with extreme Z-scores, signaling potential arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to ETF selection, helping investors identify mispriced ETFs while cautioning against potential downside risks[4] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - No specific numerical backtesting results or metrics are provided for this model in the report[3] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - No specific numerical backtesting results or metrics are provided for this model in the report[4] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods The report does not explicitly mention any standalone quantitative factors or their construction processes. It focuses on the models described above. --- Factor Backtesting Results No standalone factor backtesting results are provided in the report. The focus remains on the models and their applications.

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a prevailing trend of rising stock prices and falling bond prices. The overall monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting the bond market fundamentals and liquidity [17] - The A-share market shows a slight decline with a trading volume of 1.73 trillion, indicating a decrease in market sentiment but still active trading. The index is expected to trend upward, potentially breaking last year's high [20] - The U.S. stock market shows mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.51% and the Nasdaq up 0.35%. Long-term trends suggest that U.S. stocks may outperform non-U.S. markets [24][25] Group 2: Important Policies and News - In July, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles also grew by 12% [36] - Shanghai has introduced a social insurance subsidy policy for female employees during maternity leave, covering 50% of the costs for employers [38] - The U.S. has seen a significant policy shift allowing 401K accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies and private equity, marking a historic moment [41] Group 3: Trading Strategies - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations followed by high-level oscillations, while the A-share market is recommended to adopt a bullish stance, focusing on holding positions [7][20] - The strategy for the U.S. stock market remains bullish in the medium to long term, indicating a continuation of the bull market [8] - In the foreign exchange market, a strategic long position on the U.S. dollar is advised, as shorting the dollar lacks cost-effectiveness [29] Group 4: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index has decreased by 0.2%, but it shows signs of stabilization and recovery. The recommendation is to buy on dips, using the low point from July 10 as support [31]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [11] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent introduction of new housing regulations in Suzhou's Gusu District aimed at encouraging residents to update private housing while preserving the historical and cultural aspects of the city [5] - The report notes that the real estate sector showed mixed performance in the equity market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% and the ShenZhen Composite Index falling by 0.05% on August 7, 2025 [3] - The report identifies significant individual stock performances within the real estate sector, with New Town Holdings leading with a 6.18% increase [4] Market Trends - The report indicates that the real estate index rose by 0.82% on the same day, reflecting a positive trend in the sector [3] - A specific land parcel in Suzhou's High-tech Zone was successfully auctioned for 445.2 million RMB, with a floor price of 12,500 RMB per square meter and a 0% premium rate [6] Company Announcements - Zhuhai Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. announced a buyback period for its bonds from August 12 to August 14, with a redemption payment date set for September 15 [7] - Guangming Real Estate plans to issue medium-term notes not exceeding 4 billion RMB, with a maturity of up to 5 years [9]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.4% and up from the previous month's growth of 5.9%[5] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year, where July 2024 exports were at their lowest level since 2001, with a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[6] - Exports to ASEAN countries accounted for 17% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 16%[12] Import Performance - Imports in July rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly surpassing market expectations of a 1.0% decline and marking the highest level since July of the previous year[22] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by machinery and high-tech products, with integrated circuit imports growing by approximately 13%[22] - Despite a continued decline in crude oil imports, the total value of crude oil imports saw a reduced year-on-year decline due to quantity recovery[22] Trade Balance - China's trade surplus in July was recorded at $98.24 billion, lower than the expected $105 billion and down from $114.75 billion in the previous month[5] - The trade balance reflects the ongoing challenges in the external trade environment, particularly with the U.S. market, where exports saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 22%[12] Market Outlook - The report indicates potential pressures on future export growth due to the uncertain trade environment and the impact of new U.S. tariffs[9] - The global manufacturing PMI for July was at 49.3, indicating a slight decline and suggesting a slowdown in global manufacturing recovery[9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Monitor the crowding level of industries on a daily basis[3] - **Model Construction Process**: The model is built to monitor the crowding level of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indexes daily. It tracks the main fund flows into and out of various industries, identifying those with high and low crowding levels[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides valuable insights into industry crowding levels, helping investors identify potential investment opportunities and risks[3] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities based on premium rate Z-score[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the Z-score of the premium rate for various ETF products on a rolling basis. This helps identify ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities while also warning of possible pullback risks[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities, but investors should be cautious of the associated risks[4] Model Backtesting Results Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Crowding Level**: Military, machinery equipment, coal, and finance showed significant changes in crowding levels[3] - **Main Fund Flows**: Main funds flowed into machinery, automotive, and military industries, while flowing out of pharmaceuticals and communications[3] Premium Rate Z-score Model - **ETF Products**: The model identified several ETFs with significant net inflows and outflows, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities[5][6] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Main Fund Flow Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Track the main fund flows into and out of various industries over a period of time[3] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is constructed by monitoring the net inflows and outflows of main funds into Shenwan First-Level Industry Indexes daily. This helps identify industries with significant changes in fund allocation[3] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides valuable insights into the allocation of main funds, helping investors make informed decisions[3] Factor Backtesting Results Main Fund Flow Factor - **Net Inflows and Outflows**: The factor showed significant net inflows into machinery, automotive, and military industries, and net outflows from pharmaceuticals and communications over the past three days[3][13] ETF Product Signals Premium Rate Z-score Model - **ETF Products to Watch**: The model identified several ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities, including Medical Equipment ETF, China Concept Technology ETF, VR ETF, and Gold Stock ETF[14] Key Points - Industry crowding monitoring model tracks daily crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indexes[3] - Premium rate Z-score model screens ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities based on premium rate Z-score[4] - Main fund flow factor monitors net inflows and outflows of main funds into various industries[3] - Significant net inflows into machinery, automotive, and military industries, and net outflows from pharmaceuticals and communications[3][13] - ETF products identified for potential arbitrage opportunities include Medical Equipment ETF, China Concept Technology ETF, VR ETF, and Gold Stock ETF[14]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3600, led by the military and robotics sectors. The total market turnover reached 1.61 trillion, an increase from the previous trading day, with all 31 Shenwan first-level industries rising and nearly 3700 stocks gaining [2][21] - Current market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations for the index to continue rising until it surpasses the high point from October 8 of the previous year. Short-term support for the index is strong around 3420 points, which can be used as a reference for market strength [2][21] - The long-term upward trend is supported by recent policy shifts indicating a focus on fiscal spending directed towards households, such as the introduction of birth subsidies, which, while still less than those in developed countries, signal a shift in policy direction [2][21] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. stock market indices rebounded strongly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.34%, the Nasdaq by 1.95%, and the S&P 500 by 1.47%. Market expectations are leaning towards a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with strong buying interest driving the indices back into an upward trend [3][26] - The trade war has resulted in increased tariff revenues for the U.S., and the healthy state of household balance sheets allows consumers to manage the impact of moderate tariffs. In contrast, non-U.S. economies face risks due to previous currency appreciation affecting export revenues [3][26] Group 3: Policy and Industry Developments - The China Passenger Car Association has raised its forecast for 2025 passenger car retail sales growth to 6%, predicting total retail sales of 24.35 million vehicles and exports of 5.46 million vehicles, reflecting a 14% increase [40] - The Chinese government is enhancing support for emerging industries and digital infrastructure, including 5G and industrial internet, to prevent "involution" competition and promote high-quality development [40] - The European Union has not yet reached a consensus with the U.S. on a trade agreement, while Japan's government advisory group has recommended a significant increase in the minimum wage, marking the largest increase since 1978 [40]