Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 800 million in Q2 2025, representing a 26% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million, down 47% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.8 billion, up 34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 150 million, down 23% year-on-year [1] - The revenue growth is attributed to the consolidation of Hubei Sibao [1] - The company's product revenue breakdown shows that infant hygiene products accounted for 52.9% of total revenue, adult hygiene products 36.31%, and other products 10.79% [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 350 million, 410 million, and 470 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20X, 17X, and 15X [4] - The financial data indicates a projected revenue growth rate of 32.44% for 2025, followed by 10.08% and 10.73% in subsequent years [4] - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 514.52 million in 2025, with a slight decline in net profit margins over the forecast period [4] Business Strategy - The company plans to focus resources on increasing online promotion efforts, enhancing its own brand development, and optimizing product structure [2] - New product innovations include easy-to-wear menstrual pants and ultra-breathable materials, which have already been launched in the market [3] - The company has established deep collaborations with major clients, including global brands and emerging domestic brands, which is expected to enhance its market presence [3]

策略报告 | 投资策略 王澄睿 联系人 wangchengrui@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《投资策略：投资策略-平稳的十一》 2025-10-08 2 《投资策略：投资策略-A 股动静框架 之静态指标》 2025-10-08 3 《投资策略：十一大事与大类资产梳 理 -政 策 与 大 类 资 产 配 置 月 观 察 》 2025-10-07 2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者 吴开达 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524030001 wukaida@tfzq.com 孙希民 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524110002 sunximin@tfzq.com 黄金牛与黄金股的关系 策略专题 证券研究报告 核心结论：复盘上一轮黄金牛市，黄金股最具弹性区间往往发生在黄金价格 中枢上移趋势的进一步确认之后。本轮黄金大周期的黄金股最具弹性区间刚 刚启动。观察本轮黄金牛市，万得黄金行业指数与金价波动基本一致，且在 2024 年之前并未展现出较高的弹性。除了时间维度的启动，空间上，本轮 黄金股拉升幅度与区间长度远小于上一轮黄金牛市，也远小于费城金银指数 的弹性区间。复盘本轮金价上涨导致的黄 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 利率专题 证券研究报告 国债新老券利差如何演绎？ 愈发难以博弈的国债新老券利差 理论上讲，新老券利差应为正值，且在上市初期、切券之后两个时间段出 现利差走阔，切券后一段时间利差达到峰值，随后回落至趋向于零。实际 来看规律逐渐"失效"。具体来看 10Y 和 30Y 国债的新老券利差表现： 1）上市与切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度统计 平均来看，10Y（30Y）国债在上市后的 13（11）个交易日达到第一个利差 峰值，新老券利差最大走阔 1.85BP(1.27BP)；在上市后的 22(30)个交易日成 为活跃券，切券后 44(58)个交易日达到第二个利差峰值，新老券利差最大 走阔 3.07BP(4.31BP)。 不过，从最近的切券经验来看，对于有潜力成为活跃券的新券，市场会快 速参与并加快切券节奏，新老券利差的策略空间被压缩。例如，10Y 国债 250011 上市次日即完成切券，切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度仅 0.45BP。30Y 特别国债 2500002 在上市的 8 个交易日后也顺利成为活跃券。 切券之后，新老券利差最大走阔幅度仅 2.95BP，也处于历史中等偏低水平。 新老 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.2 billion in Q2 2025, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 120 million, down 16% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.4 billion, a decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 240 million, down 8% [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 26.82%, showing a slight increase of 0.41% [1] - The overseas market revenue reached 1.81 billion, accounting for 75.9% of total revenue, indicating strong international performance despite a complex environment [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.4 billion, with a net profit of 240 million, reflecting a decrease of 8% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 26.82%, supported by internal cost improvements and technological innovations [1] - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 500 million, 560 million, and 630 million respectively [4] International Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand, which is expected to cover over 60% of North American orders [2] - The overseas market strategy includes strengthening existing markets and exploring new opportunities in Europe and the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2] - The company’s cross-border e-commerce business saw a revenue increase of 82.8% year-on-year, indicating successful channel expansion [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on smart manufacturing upgrades and product innovation to enhance competitiveness [3] - The product categories such as water purifiers and smart home applications are gaining market traction, contributing to sustainable growth [3] - The company has established strong partnerships with major retailers like Lowe's and The Home Depot, leading to a 45.7% increase in channel revenue [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 230 million yuan in Q2 2025, a 15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30 million yuan, up 3% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 420 million yuan, also a 15% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, reflecting a 1% increase [1] - The company has a strong order backlog of 2-3 months and can dynamically adjust production capacity based on orders, enhancing customer responsiveness [1] - The completion of fundraising projects, such as the annual production of 16.5 million square meters of architectural shading new materials, supports future sales expansion [1] Product Structure - The company boasts a rich and diverse product structure, having developed over a hundred product series and thousands of specifications, making it one of the most comprehensive manufacturers in the industry [2] - The ability to customize products according to regional and customer needs allows the company to meet diverse customer demands quickly [2] - The company focuses on a differentiated competition strategy, producing high-cost performance products tailored to different markets [2] Marketing Strategy - The company has established a marketing strategy that integrates online and offline channels, as well as domestic and international approaches [3] - It is actively expanding its cross-border e-commerce business and has formed strategic partnerships to enhance logistics efficiency and shorten delivery times [3] - The company aims to deepen its marketing system, expand multi-channel operations, and enhance brand recognition and reputation [3] Financial Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 130 million, 148 million, and 183 million yuan respectively [4] - The company anticipates continued growth in revenue, with projections of 983 million yuan in 2025, 1.19 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.47 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 20.32%, 21.23%, and 23.64% respectively [8]

Group 1: Macro Overview - In Q3 2025, major asset classes showed strong performance, with the Asia-Pacific stock indices generally strong, and A-shares quickly breaking through 3800 points before experiencing high-level fluctuations [2][19] - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, with PPI showing a year-on-year decline and three major economic indicators falling for two consecutive months [19] - The liquidity situation improved in Q3, with M1 continuing to rise since March, and the M1-M2 gap narrowing for four consecutive months [19] Group 2: Credit Market Insights - In Q3, the credit market exhibited structural resilience, with certain credit varieties experiencing significant declines, particularly long-end bonds, which saw yields rise by over 30 basis points [3][22] - The behavior of institutional investors shifted, with an increase in the proportion of credit bonds in net purchases, indicating a gradual realization of the value of credit coupons [22] - Looking ahead to Q4 and 2026, the credit market may see a revaluation of credit assets, especially if new regulations on public fund sales are implemented [3][22] Group 3: Construction Materials Sector - During the holiday period from September 29 to October 7, the Hong Kong construction materials index rose by 2.55%, with glass products performing the best [4] - The current valuation of glass products is below the 50th percentile of the past three years, while cement companies are performing better, indicating potential for growth in undervalued segments [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan to stabilize growth in the construction materials industry, which aims to address structural issues and improve competition [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Performance - Hengdian East Magnetic achieved a revenue of 11.936 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, with a significant growth in its photovoltaic business [7] - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan in H1 2025, driven by volume growth despite pressure on pricing [24][26] - Songlin Technology's revenue in H1 2025 was 1.1 billion yuan from its health and smart kitchen businesses, as it officially entered the robotics field [31][32]

Group 1: Overview of Major Assets - In Q3 2025, A-shares quickly broke through 3800 points, followed by high-level fluctuations, while bond rates continued to rise and commodities experienced a pullback [1][9] - The A-share market saw broad index gains, with the ChiNext Index leading, and growth and cyclical styles outperforming [1][13] - The bond market experienced a continuous rise in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a high of 1.9022% [1][26] - Commodity performance was mixed, with gold and silver prices rising significantly, while the Nanhua Industrial Product Index peaked in July and then declined [1][29] Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The fundamental outlook for the A-share market remained weak in Q3, with PPI showing signs of recovery but key economic indicators declining for two consecutive months [2] - Macro liquidity improved in Q3, with M1 continuing to rise since March and the M1-M2 spread narrowing for four months [2] - Micro-funding activities saw increased activity from southbound funds, a significant rebound in margin financing, and record high ETF trading volumes [2][14] - The manufacturing sector's "anti-involution" trend boosted cyclical stocks, while the AI computing power theme gained traction [2][14] Group 3: Overseas Market Trends - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve began to rise in August, culminating in a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - The U.S. economy showed resilience with cooling inflation, but political pressures could widen credit risks for the dollar [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 527.71 billion and 194.92 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.19% and 2.28% [1] - The growth in the liquor business is primarily driven by volume, although the price per ton is under pressure due to structural declines [2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 895 billion, 933 billion, and 977 billion yuan, and net profits of 319 billion, 333 billion, and 351 billion yuan respectively [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the liquor segment generated revenues of 491.20 billion yuan, with the flagship product Wuliangye contributing 409.98 billion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth of 4.26% and 4.57% respectively [2] - The gross profit margin for the liquor segment was 82.20%, with a slight decrease of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 18.40% year-on-year to 152.88 billion yuan [4] Channel Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from distribution and direct sales channels was 279.25 billion and 211.95 billion yuan respectively, with direct sales showing a stronger growth of 8.60% year-on-year [3] - The number of Wuliangye distributors decreased by 20 to 2,510, while the number of distributors for other liquor brands increased by 127 to 1,077 [3] Cost and Profitability - The company faced pressure on profitability due to increased expenses, with the gross margin and net profit margin for Q2 2025 at 74.69% and 29.26% respectively, both showing declines year-on-year [4] - The sales and management expense ratios increased to 18.88% and 4.90% respectively, indicating higher operational costs [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow position, with contract liabilities increasing by 19.11% year-on-year to 100.87 billion yuan [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.75 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company reported a stable performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, down 2.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, down 7.97% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to launch a new low-alcohol product, 28° Guojiao, in H2 2025, which is anticipated to contribute to new growth [1][2]. - The company’s liquor revenue was 16.397 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.62% year-on-year, with sales volume and price changes of +2.09% and -4.62% respectively [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the gross margin was 87.09%, and the net profit margin was 46.57%, both showing slight declines year-on-year [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios decreased to 9.23% and 3.11% respectively [2]. - The operating cash flow decreased by 26.27% year-on-year to 6.064 billion yuan, while contract liabilities increased by 50.95% to 3.535 billion yuan [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 29.538 billion yuan, 31.976 billion yuan, and 33.461 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 12.176 billion yuan, 13.365 billion yuan, and 14.554 billion yuan [3]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 16X, 14X, and 13X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. Market Position and Channel Performance - Traditional and emerging channel revenues were 15.465 billion yuan and 932 million yuan respectively, with traditional channels declining by 3.99% and emerging channels growing by 27.55% year-on-year [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 70 to 1,791, while the average revenue per distributor increased by 1.18% to 9.1553 million yuan [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s current price-to-earnings ratio is 14.43, with a projected decrease to 13.13 by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-book ratio is currently at 4.62, expected to decline to 3.26 by 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company is entering the robotics field, focusing on both organic growth and external expansion [2] - The robotics business includes care service robots, logistics service robots, AI companion robots, and humanoid robots, aiming to create a product system with application value [2][3] - The company has made significant technological advancements in motion control, scene voice interaction, and emotional experience for its robots [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 600 million, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 million, down 57% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.1 billion, a decrease of 21%, and a net profit of 90 million, down 58% [1] - The overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 was 880 million, down 16.78%, while domestic revenue was 260 million, down 33.54% [1] Business Development - The company is leveraging its subsidiary, Songlin Robotics Technology Co., Ltd., to develop a comprehensive robotics product system [2] - The focus is on enhancing the R&D team and utilizing existing technology in AI smart hardware and software algorithms for product development [2] - The company is also exploring acquisition opportunities and collaborating with outstanding enterprises and professional teams in the industry [2] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 350 million, 410 million, and 470 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39X, 32X, and 29X [4]