Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [11] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing comprehensive losses, with a focus on the expected differences in the sector [3][15] - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to enter a new cycle, with opportunities in the beef industry [4][17] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [5][19] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [6][24] - The seed industry is waiting for a turnaround, emphasizing opportunities in biological breeding [7][27] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance [8][28] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The industry is in comprehensive losses, with a significant drop in pig prices, down 9.37% to 11.41 CNY/kg as of October 11 [15] - The average loss per pig is 77.09 CNY, with a notable increase in the number of sows being culled [15][16] - Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with valuations at historical lows [3][16] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may have started, with a focus on companies with mother cow resources [4][17] - The average price of live cattle is 27.16 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [17] Pet Industry - Domestic brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, particularly on platforms like Douyin [5][18] - Pet food exports reached 230,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is focusing on breeding imports, with a 21.78% year-on-year decrease in breeding stock [21][22] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [24] Seed Industry - The seed industry is expected to see a turnaround, with a focus on high-yield production and the integration of advanced agricultural technologies [27] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [27] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed sector [28] - The sector is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions [28]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations have led to relatively strong performance in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising due to heightened risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][20][21] - The report emphasizes the impact of new export control policies on rare earths, which are expected to strengthen China's competitive edge in the industry and have long-term implications for the entire supply chain [1][3] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have risen, reaching 85,910 CNY/ton, driven by supply shocks and increased export expectations, despite weak domestic demand [1][12] - Aluminum prices increased to 20,980 CNY/ton, with slight reductions in theoretical production capacity due to regional capacity transfers and maintenance [1][15] - Gold prices reached an average of 871.03 CNY/gram, up 3.99% from the previous week, while silver prices rose to 10,856 CNY/kg, up 6.72% [1][20] Minor Metals - Antimony prices have decreased, with 2 high bismuth antimony ingot at 166,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a weak market due to ongoing supply issues and cautious demand [2] - The report notes that the antimony market remains weak, with limited replenishment observed post-holiday [2] Rare Earths - The report discusses the impact of new export control policies on the rare earth industry, with prices for light rare earths slightly decreasing while medium and heavy rare earths saw minor increases [3] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, and processing fees have risen, indicating a potential upward trend in valuations for the sector [3] Outlook - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum for potential investment opportunities based on the current market dynamics [1][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August, the pace of changes in the supply - demand structure of the convertible bond market has accelerated. On the demand side, insurance funds have rapidly and significantly reduced their holdings of convertible bonds, while the demand from public funds has remained stable. On the supply side, although the number of forced redemptions has increased significantly since August, the enthusiasm for new convertible bond proposals has been high, and the review speed has marginally accelerated [1][10][14]. - The A - share market fluctuated sharply this week. The current A - share market valuation has significantly recovered. Large - scale equipment renewal and consumer product trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, and the export growth rate may decline. The Fed has re - entered the interest rate cut cycle, and the weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital side is expected to gradually start [27]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is expected to be low. The risk of a correction in convertible bond valuations has been temporarily alleviated. However, in the context of stock market volatility and the strong "taking - profits" sentiment of institutions in the fourth quarter, the short - term profit - making effect of the convertible bond market may be weak. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunities of convertible bonds in a volatile market [28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 1.1 What are the Highlights of New Convertible Bond Issues? - Since August, the demand - side of the convertible bond market has seen insurance funds significantly reducing their holdings, while public funds have increased their positions. On the supply - side, new convertible bond proposals have been actively submitted, and the review speed has accelerated. For example, in August, 18 new convertible bond proposals passed the board of directors, reaching the level of March 2023. In September, 17 proposals passed the general meeting of shareholders, and 7 passed the listing committee review, reaching the level of January 2024 [1][10][14]. - As of October 10, there are 4 convertible bond proposals awaiting issuance after obtaining the CSRC's approval for registration, and 8 public convertible bond proposals have passed the listing committee review, with a total scale of 530.5 million yuan. The industry distribution of these convertible bonds is mainly in TMT, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical industries [15][20]. 1.2 Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A - share market fluctuated sharply. Before the holiday, the A - share market rose, with the new energy industry chain and semiconductors leading the gains. After the holiday, the market first rose and then fell. The current A - share market valuation has recovered, and domestic demand is expected to be boosted, but the export growth rate may decline [27]. - In the convertible bond market, the subsequent issuance pressure is expected to be low. The short - term profit - making effect may be weak, and attention should be paid to band - trading opportunities. Industries to focus on include popular themes such as semiconductors and AI, domestic - demand - oriented sectors, and central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system [28][29]. 2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 2.1 The Equity Market Style is Differentiated, and Pro - cyclical Sectors are Strengthening - From September 29 to October 10, the equity market showed mixed performance. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth stocks. 26 Shenwan industry indices rose, and 5 declined. The non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemical industries led the gains [32][34]. 2.2 The Convertible Bond Market Rose Narrowly, and the Premium Rate for 100 - yuan Par Value Rebounded - From September 29 to October 10, the convertible bond market rose. The average daily trading volume decreased. Most individual bonds rose. The non - ferrous metals, beauty care, and non - bank financial industries led the gains in the convertible bond market, while the communication industry declined [38][39]. - The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate rose. The median price of convertible bonds increased, and the number of medium - and low - priced convertible bonds decreased [45][49]. 2.3 High - frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 2.3.1 Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased. Among different par - value convertible bonds, the valuation of 80 - 90 yuan par - value convertible bonds increased more significantly. The valuations of AA + and AA - rated convertible bonds decreased, while those of other ratings increased. The valuations of large - cap and small - cap convertible bonds increased significantly, while those of other scales decreased [60]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom [60]. 2.3.2 Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings and scales rose. Since 2023, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline ability and greater rebound strength [71]. 3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.1 This Week's Primary Proposals Issuance - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds, and there were 3 convertible bonds awaiting listing, with a total scale of 730.2 million yuan. The number of primary approvals was 10 [76]. - From the beginning of 2023 to October 10, 2025, there were 103 convertible bond proposals in total, with a total scale of 15.8329 billion yuan. The number and scale of proposals at different stages vary [77]. 3.2 Downward Revision & Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 4 announced no downward revisions, 0 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually carried out a downward revision. Six convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemptions, 0 announced no redemptemptempt 0 announced no redemptions, and 5 announced early redemptions [5][83][84]. - As of the end of this week, there were 0 convertible bonds in the put - option declaration period and 9 in the company's capital - reduction repayment declaration period [88].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：缓和预期仍存，调整空间或有限 缓和预期仍存，调整空间或有限 节前周报(20250928)认为：进入国庆长假，假期的不确定性或对市场风险 偏好有所压制；WIND 全 A 趋势线位于 6184 点附近，赚钱效应约为 0.65%， 仍然为正，在赚钱效应转负之前，建议耐心持有。考虑长假的不确定性， 可调仓红利板块应对。 WIND 全 A 上周下跌 0.36%，市值维度上，上周代 表小市值股票的中证 2000 下跌 0.06%，中盘股中证 500 下跌 0.19%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，上证 50 下跌 0.47%;上周中信一级行业中，表现较强行业 包括有色金属、煤炭，有色金属上涨 4.35%，传媒、消费者服务表现较弱， 传媒下跌 3.58%。上周成交活跃度上，煤炭、钢铁资金继续流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离继续缩小，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 6237，120 日线收于 5525 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之上， 两线差值由上周的 12 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 机构行为周度跟踪 证券研究报告 长假前后，机构谨慎为主 债市活力指数继续下降 截至 10 月 10 日，债市活力指数较 9 月 26 日下降 8pcts 至 0%，5D-MA 下降 18pcts 至 5%。 其中，无债市活力升温指标，降温指标包括：十年期国开债隐含税率（反 向）（滚动两年分位数持平在 0%）、10Y 国开债活跃券成交额/9-10Y 国开债 余额（滚动两年分位数由 19%降至 16%）、银行间债市杠杆率较过去 4 年同 期均值的超额水平（滚动两年分位数由 12%降至 6%）、中长期纯债基久期中 位数（滚动两年分位数由 89.0%降至 87.6%）、30Y 国债换手率（滚动两年分 位数由 24%降至 3%）。 机构买卖行为跟踪：节前基金谨慎加仓；节后交投清淡 1）买卖力度与券种选择：基金主要净买入中短债，保险转为卖出 整体来看，9/29-10/10 期间，现券市场净买入力度排序为：货基>基金> 其他产品类>保险>理财>外资银行>大行>其他，净卖出力度排序为股份 行>城商行>农村金融>券商。 券种选择上，目前各类机构主力的券种为：1）大行主力 7-10Y 利率债；2） 农 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - The construction index increased by 4.6% recently, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, indicating a positive market trend for the construction sector [1][4] - There is an expectation for stable growth in infrastructure in Q4, with a focus on investment opportunities in the western regions of China, particularly in Xinjiang and Tibet [2][23] - The government has issued guidelines to combat price competition issues, emphasizing the importance of anti-involution investment themes [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Q4 Infrastructure Stimulus Expectations - Economic data from July to August 2025 showed a slowdown, prompting expectations for increased infrastructure policies in Q4 [13] - Special bonds and long-term treasury bonds are being issued at a rapid pace, with special bonds totaling 3.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 83.6% of the annual quota [14][15] - The western region's fixed asset investment grew by 6.6%, surpassing the national average, with significant growth in provinces like Tibet and Xinjiang [23][24] 2. Governance of Price Competition - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address price competition issues, promoting fair market practices [3][25] - The report suggests focusing on four investment themes related to anti-involution, including price elasticity and downstream profit improvement [26][27] 3. Nuclear Power Sector Insights - Key breakthroughs in nuclear fusion technology are expected to enhance the attractiveness of the nuclear power sector, with significant investments planned [29] - The report identifies leading companies in the nuclear power construction sector, such as China Nuclear Engineering and China Energy Engineering [30][31] 4. Market Review - The construction index's recent performance indicates a strong market, with notable stock gains from companies like China Nuclear Engineering and Xinjiang Communications Construction [33][34] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment in high-growth regions and suggests focusing on companies involved in major projects in the western regions [38][39] - It also highlights the potential of the nuclear power sector and emerging business directions, recommending companies like China Nuclear Engineering and Libat [40]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [5] Core Insights - The report discusses the dynamic measurement of the EVA balance point for banks' asset allocation between loans and bonds, emphasizing that EVA is just one of many factors influencing asset selection [1][12] - A positive correlation is expected between the change in EVA (△EVA) and the preference for bond investments over corporate loans, indicating that as △EVA rises, banks may shift their asset allocation towards bonds [2][13] - The report identifies a critical point (α) for corporate loan EVA, suggesting that when △EVA exceeds this point, banks should increase their allocation to government bonds [3][17] Summary by Sections Section 1: Bank's EVA Balance Point - The report highlights the importance of considering various factors such as national policy, regulatory requirements, and comprehensive returns from asset operations when evaluating the EVA of loans versus bonds [1][12] - It proposes a methodology to dynamically assess the EVA balance point by analyzing historical asset structure changes [1][12] Section 2: Historical Trends and Future Projections - From 2019 to 2023, a clear positive correlation between △EVA and the ratio of bond investments to corporate loans was observed, although a divergence occurred in the second half of 2024 due to increased government bond supply and strong institutional demand [2][16] - The report anticipates a return to a more balanced strategy for banks, focusing on asset allocation rather than speculative trading, with projections for △EVA to stabilize between 0.80% and 1.25% [18][19] Section 3: Current EVA Values and Implications - The latest value for corporate loan EVA is reported at 0.74%, with expectations for stability in loan pricing and improving loan quality [4][19] - The report concludes that the balance point for the 10Y government bond yield is estimated to be between 1.75% and 1.80%, indicating a critical threshold for banks' asset pricing decisions [20][19]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 三季度经济金融"成绩单"前瞻 证券研究报告 宏观数据预测专题 三季度经济复苏的成色与瓶颈如何？四季度经济如何演绎？本文聚焦于 此。 工业增加值：预计 9 月当月同比为 5.4% 9 月生产 PMI 较前值上升 1.1pct 至 51.9%，升至近 6 个月高点；采购量指数 升至 51.6%，企业加快原材料采购，显示生产积极性和经济景气度边际回升， 故而我们预计今年 9 月工增环比或为正，9 月工业增加值同比增速为 5.4%。 社零：预计 9 月当月同比为 3.2% （1）9 月服务业 PMI 较上月回落 0.4pct 至 50.1%，餐饮、房地产等行业商 务活动指数低于临界点；（2）9 月地产销售有所好转，但仍低于历史同期， 预计地产后周期消费边际改善，但难以为 9 月社零增速提供较大支撑；（3） 考虑到"以旧换新"政策补贴效应下降，预计其对社零的支撑或有所减弱。 固定资产投资：预计 9 月累计同比 0.2% 基建方面，9 月基建投资累计同比有所回落。（1）9 月建筑业 PMI 为 49.3%， 比上月上升 0.2pct，但仍处于收缩区间；（2）9 月石油沥青装置开工率明 显回升， ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that liquidity is expected to remain comfortable in the upcoming week, with a stable transition across the quarter despite some fluctuations observed from September 23 to September 25, where the central bank's operations were relatively cautious [1][12] - On September 26, the central bank injected 600 billion yuan through a 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, which revitalized market sentiment and helped overnight funds recover to below 1.35%, supported by increased fiscal spending at the quarter's end [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that in October, funding rates typically operate around a central level, with early month conditions being relatively loose due to the easing of regulatory assessments and the influx of fiscal spending [18] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see nearly 1.7 trillion yuan in public market maturities, including 1.021 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, 500 billion yuan in buyout repos, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [3][24] - Government bonds are set to issue over 200 billion yuan, with planned issuances of 221 billion yuan in national bonds and 213 billion yuan in local bonds, while maturing national bonds total 2.594 trillion yuan and local bonds 946 billion yuan [4][35] - The willingness of major banks to lend has shown signs of recovery, with funding rates declining; for instance, DR001 decreased by 6.81 basis points to 1.32% as of October 10 [5][18]

Group 1: Demand - New housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreased by 61% week-on-week and 48% year-on-year, remaining below seasonal levels [13][15][29] - First-tier cities saw significant declines in new housing transactions, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing week-on-week drops of 78%, 72%, 61%, and 85% respectively [13][15] - Automotive consumption showed a notable increase, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars rising by 49.3% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decline of 4.8% [38] Group 2: Production - PTA operating rate remained stable at 77.7%, while the operating rate for rebar decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.0% [47] - The operating rate for asphalt facilities increased to a year-to-date high of 40.1%, reflecting a 5.7 percentage point rise [47] - Downstream production rates for automotive tires decreased significantly, with full steel tire operating rates dropping by 14.9% and semi-steel tire rates by 18.3% [47][59] Group 3: Investment - Apparent consumption of rebar fell by 39.4% week-on-week to 146.0 million tons, with prices slightly decreasing to 3260.0 yuan per ton [62] - Cement shipment rates decreased week-on-week, with the cement price index dropping by 0.6% to 104.9 points [62][70] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [1] Group 4: Trade - Port container throughput increased by 8.8% week-on-week, surpassing last year's levels, while the CCFI comprehensive index fell by 6.7% [73] - Export shipping prices continued to decline, with significant drops in rates for European and American routes [73][77] - The BDI index also experienced a decline of 4.4% week-on-week [73] Group 5: Prices - Agricultural product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with the 200 index dropping by 0.1% [83] - Pork prices fell by 2.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices decreased by 2.9% [83][86] - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.2%, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 0.6% [87] Group 6: Interest Rate Bonds - As of October 10, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds reached 99.3%, with a total issuance of 19,862 billion yuan [102][104] - New general bonds issued totaled 6,717 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 84.0% [107] - The total issuance of government bonds for the year was 121,835 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 55,837 billion yuan [109]