Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View This report is an overseas economic tracking weekly report that analyzes the trends of the US and global financial markets, central bank policies, Trump's policies, and economic fundamentals from September 15 - 19, 2025, and provides a preview of important events in the coming week [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity**: US stocks reached new highs, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rising 1.22%, 1.05%, and 2.21% respectively. European and Asian stock markets showed mixed trends [1][12]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar rose slightly, with the dollar index up 0.03%. The euro and yen had different performances against the dollar, and the RMB rose slightly against the dollar [12]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields and term spreads increased. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose 1bp and 8bp respectively [13]. - **Commodities**: Gold and crude oil rose after fluctuations. COMEX gold and silver rose 1.09% and 1.40% respectively, and WTI crude oil rose 0.19% [13]. 2. Overseas Policy and Important News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The statement emphasized employment risks, and the dot - plot showed more expected rate cuts in 2025 and subsequent years [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell's stance was moderately dovish but cautious. Other Fed officials were neutrally dovish [2][30]. - The market's expectation of a 75bp rate cut in 2025 increased, but the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 was postponed [3]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Sino - US Relations**: High - level talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok and trade cooperation. The TikTok ban was extended to December 16, and a Sino - US presidential call was held [4]. - **Fiscal**: There is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The House passed a temporary appropriation bill, but the Senate rejected one [4]. - **Other Aspects**: The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on Trump's tariff case, the UK and the US signed a technology agreement, and Trump reformed the H - 1B visa program [6]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking - **Overall Prosperity**: The Nowcast and GDPNow models raised the Q3 US GDP growth forecasts to 2.10% and 3.34% respectively [7]. - **Employment**: Unemployment insurance claims decreased unexpectedly. Initial and continued claims both declined [7]. - **Demand**: Retail sales and airport security checks were stable, but railway transportation decreased significantly. The real estate market recovered [7]. - **Production**: US crude steel production and refinery operations remained stable, above last year's levels [7]. - **Shipping**: International freight rates were mixed. Some Chinese export container rates decreased, while some US - bound routes increased [7]. - **Prices**: US retail gasoline prices rose, and the 1 - year inflation swap decreased slightly [7]. - **Financial Conditions**: The OFR US financial stress index declined [7]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders Next week (September 22 - 26, 2025), focus on the US Q2 real GDP final value, the US August core PCE inflation rate, the S&P PMI of the US and the eurozone, and密集 Fed officials' speeches [7][73].

Group 1 - The market is transitioning to a phase of oscillating upward movement, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and potentially two more times within the year [1][2] - The net inflow of funds into the market is significant, with a total supply of 137.2 billion and demand of 77.4 billion, resulting in a net inflow of 59.8 billion [2][9] - The issuance of equity financing has slightly decreased, with a total of 10.384 billion raised compared to 11.737 billion in the previous period, reflecting a 12% decrease [27] Group 2 - The issuance of new shares in equity public funds has increased slightly, with a total of 42.854 billion shares issued compared to 41.914 billion previously, marking a 2.24% change [11][12] - Northbound trading activity has seen a slight decline, with the proportion of northbound trading volume in the total A-share trading volume decreasing from 14.54% to 14.39% [12][15] - Margin financing has shown a net inflow of 88.382 billion, a decrease of 54.75% from the previous period, indicating a cooling in market investment sentiment [17][19] Group 3 - The net inflow of southbound funds has significantly increased, reaching 85.913 billion, a 132.55% change from the previous period, indicating a strong market sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks [37] - The net subscription amount for stock ETFs has narrowed to 5.936 billion from 12.232 billion, showing a decrease in recent inflows [23][24] - The scale of locked-up shares being released has decreased, with a total of 122.414 billion compared to 162.112 billion previously, reflecting a downward trend in A-share unlock scale [33][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fund's "chasing up" behavior has become more rational, and the duration risk may be gradually released. The overall "chasing up and selling down" behavior of funds is more moderate. The weekly net purchase of interest rate bonds by funds reached a new high since July, but the net purchase of interest rate bonds over 10Y was relatively low, which may gradually release the risk of supply - demand mismatch in ultra - long bonds [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Sentiment: Bond Market Vitality Index Declined Slightly - As of September 19, the bond market vitality index decreased by 5 pcts to 13% compared with September 12, and the 5D - MA decreased by 13 pcts to 17%. The rising indicators of bond market vitality include the implied tax rate of the 10 - year CDB bond (inverse), and the cooling indicators include the trading volume of the active 10Y CDB bond / the balance of 9 - 10Y CDB bonds, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, and the turnover rate of the 30Y Treasury bond [2][11][13]. 2. Institutional Behavior: Funds Cautiously Go Long, Rural Commercial Banks Increase Selling 2.1. Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Type Selection - The order of net buying strength in the current bond market this week is: funds > other product types > insurance > wealth management > large banks > others > foreign - funded banks > money market funds > securities firms. The order of net selling strength is: city commercial banks > rural financial institutions > joint - stock banks. For ultra - long bonds (bonds over 15Y), the order of net buying strength is: insurance > securities firms > wealth management > funds > foreign - funded banks, and the order of net selling strength is: large banks > city commercial banks > joint - stock banks > rural commercial banks > other product types > others. - The main bond types of various institutions are: large banks have no obvious main bond types; rural commercial banks focus on credit bonds over 10Y; insurance focuses on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; funds focus on 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, and 7 - 10Y interest rate bonds; wealth management focuses on interest rate bonds within 1Y and 3 - 5Y credit bonds; other product types focus on 3 - 5Y interest rate bonds [3][20]. 2.2. Trading Portfolio - As of September 19, the median duration of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.01 years compared with September 12. Among them, the median durations of pure interest rate bond funds, interest rate bond funds, and credit bond funds increased by 0.13 years, 0.14 years, and decreased by 0.01 years to 5.17 years, 4.86 years, and 3.71 years respectively. The median durations of high - performing interest rate bond funds and credit bond funds increased by 0.12 years and 0.03 years to 6.46 years and 4.25 years respectively [4][34][38]. 2.3. Allocation Portfolio - **2.3.1. The primary subscription demand for Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, and the demand for ultra - long bonds increased**: This week, the primary subscription demand for Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, and the demand for ultra - long bonds also increased. The weighted average full - market multiples of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased from 3.04 times and 2.71 times to 3.39 times and 3.00 times respectively. Among them, the weighted average full - market multiples of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds over 10Y increased from 3.37 times and 2.12 times to 3.63 times and 3.34 times respectively [52]. - **2.3.2. Large banks: The increase in the supply of ultra - long bonds may restrict their secondary - market承接 capacity**: Since this year, the issuance scale of ultra - long - term government bonds has been larger and the average issuance term has been longer. Large banks may face the pressure of interest rate risk indicator assessment after continuous purchase, which restricts their secondary - market承接 capacity. In terms of short - term Treasury bond trading, large banks increased their net purchase of Treasury bonds within 1Y since June, but the cumulative net purchase scale this year is still far lower than that of the same period in 2024 and higher than that in 2023. The net purchase of 1 - 3Y Treasury bonds was strong from May to July and then declined. As of September 19, the cumulative net purchase of 1 - 3Y Treasury bonds this year was 684.1 billion yuan [57]. - **2.3.3. Rural commercial banks: Weak bond - buying strength, emphasizing long - term bonds and de - emphasizing short - term bonds**: The cumulative net purchase of bonds by rural commercial banks this year is significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net purchase of short - term bonds within 1Y. As of September 19, rural commercial banks have accumulated a net sale of 568 billion yuan of bonds within 1Y this year. However, the net purchase of bonds with maturities of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y is significantly higher than in previous years [70]. - **2.3.4. Insurance: The acceleration of government bond issuance helps insurance deploy ultra - long bonds**: Since this year, the net purchase of bonds by insurance has been significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the strong purchase of ultra - long bonds over 10Y. As of September 19, the ratio of this year's cumulative net purchase of bonds to cumulative premium income reached 49.93%, exceeding 42.62% at the end of September last year. The ratio of this year's cumulative net purchase of bonds by insurance to the cumulative issuance scale of government bonds over 10Y is 29.11%, slightly lower than 29.18% at the end of September last year [75]. - **2.3.5. Wealth management: The secondary - market duration remained flat**: Since June, the cumulative net purchase of bonds by wealth management has continued to rise, significantly higher than in the past three years. As of September 19, the cumulative net purchase of bonds over 10Y by wealth management this year was 14.92 billion yuan. This week, the duration of the secondary - market net purchase of bonds by wealth management remained flat, still at the highest level since February 23, 2024. As of September 19, the weighted average duration of the cumulative net purchase of bonds by wealth management was 1.75 years, the same as on September 12 [87][89]. 3. Asset Management Product Tracking: Most Interest Rate and Credit Bond Funds Recorded Negative Returns in the Past Three Months - Since August, the growth rate of the bond fund scale has still been lower than that of the stock fund. The scale of bond funds and stock funds increased by 54.3 billion yuan and 114.1 billion yuan respectively in September, and 73.2 billion yuan and 485.5 billion yuan respectively in August. - The issuance share of newly established bond - type funds increased significantly this week. The scale of newly established bond funds this week was 48.6 billion yuan, a new high since 2023. - In terms of bond fund performance, the net value of various types of bond funds rebounded this week, and pure interest rate bond funds performed relatively better. The median annualized returns of pure interest rate bond funds, interest rate bond funds, and credit bond funds in the past week were 2.46%, 2.03%, and 1.52% respectively. Most interest rate and credit bond funds recorded negative returns in the past three months [90].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in humanoid robotics, driven by government policies and technological breakthroughs, which are facilitating the application of these robots in various sectors such as automotive manufacturing, logistics, and power inspection [1][2] - The global interest in humanoid robots is increasing, with notable investments from major companies like Nvidia and Intel, indicating a shift towards viewing humanoid robotics as a critical sector alongside electric vehicles and AI [2] - The report suggests that the technological advancements and successful commercialization of humanoid robots will position the Chinese industry favorably in the global competition [2] Company Summaries - **Obi Zhongguang**: Recognized as a leading company in 3D visual perception, deeply integrated with Microsoft and Nvidia. The company has a market share exceeding 70% in domestic service robot visual sensors and is one of the few globally to cover six major 3D visual perception technologies [3] - **Keli Sensor**: A leading domestic strain gauge sensor company, specializing in the development, production, and sales of strain sensors and related components. The company has completed product series development for humanoid robot wrist and ankle sensors, demonstrating advanced technical capabilities [3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computing power industry chain, particularly in overseas markets, which remain resilient despite challenges such as DeepSeek and trade frictions. The domestic AI industry is also expected to thrive, with 2025 potentially being a pivotal year for AI infrastructure and applications [3][39]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Industry Dynamics - Huawei announced a roadmap for its Ascend chip series, with the Ascend 950PR and Ascend 950DT chips expected to launch in Q1 and Q4 of 2026, respectively. The Ascend 960 and 970 chips are planned for release in 2027 and 2028 [11][25]. - The Atlas 900 A3 SuperPoD has been deployed over 300 times, serving more than 20 clients, and the upcoming Atlas 950 SuperPoD is expected to support 8192 Ascend cards with a computing power of 8 EFLOPS FP8 and 16 EFLOPS FP4, set to launch in Q4 2026 [12][30]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - The report highlights key investment opportunities in the AI and digital economy sectors, recommending companies involved in optical modules, switches, servers, and IDC resources, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication [42]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of the satellite internet and low-altitude economy, recommending companies like Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [44]. 3. Market Trends - The communication sector saw a 1.01% increase in the week of September 15-19, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.46 percentage points. Key stocks that performed well include Dekeli and Changfei Fiber [46][47]. - The report suggests that the AI and digital economy will continue to be a strong trend, with significant opportunities in ICT equipment, optical communication, and cloud computing infrastructure [40][41].

Group 1: Market Insights from 2014-2015 Bull Market - The market style during the bull market from 2014 to 2015 showed a pattern of "rapid rise - retreat and bottoming," with the market crowding degree reaching a low of around 20% in early July 2025 and peaking at 30% in early September 2025 [1][10] - In the first phase of the 2014-2015 bull market, financial and stable styles led the gains, but during the consolidation phase, they significantly underperformed, while growth styles gradually took the lead [1][15] - The first phase saw non-bank financials, banks, construction decoration, steel, and real estate sectors leading the gains, but all fell to the lower ranks during the adjustment phase [2][18] Group 2: Current Economic Data - In August 2025, key economic indicators showed a marginal decline, with industrial value added growing by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.75% [3][27] - Social consumption in August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, also lower than the expected 3.82%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3][36] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, down from 1.6% in July, reflecting a continued decline in investment activity [3][43] Group 3: Industry Performance - In the current consolidation phase, industries such as communication, electronics, and power equipment have maintained strong performance, while the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline [2][23] - The coal sector has improved significantly, rising from 28th to 9th place in terms of performance during the adjustment phase, indicating a recovery in previously lagging industries [2][23] - The top-performing industries during the current phase include communication, electronics, and power equipment, with communication showing a gain of over 40% [2][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company's overseas manufacturing layout advantages are gradually becoming apparent, particularly due to its early investment in a production base in Vietnam, which has established a solid foundation in customer resources, production capacity, localized supply chains, personnel quality, and technical processes [2][3] - The company aims to maintain its "top one or two" market strategy while actively responding to tariff impacts, focusing on insights and expansion efforts towards top customers in key countries [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 52 billion, 58 billion, and 66 billion respectively, with net profits of 3.3 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.3 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.2 billion, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 70 million, a decrease of 10% year-on-year. For the first half of 2025, revenue was 2.2 billion, an increase of 7% year-on-year, and net profit was 130 million, an increase of 5% year-on-year [1] - The company has established strong localized supply chain capabilities, with vertical integration in manufacturing for components such as injection molding, foam, and hardware, leading to stable supply chains and cost advantages [2] - The company has seen continuous improvement in manufacturing capabilities and process levels, supported by international certifications, enhancing its ability to undertake higher technical requirements for products [2][3] Market Strategy - The company is expanding its sales organization internationally, establishing multiple sales offices to better understand market trends and customer needs, thereby increasing market penetration [4] - The establishment of the Romanian production base in 2023 is accelerating new product introduction and capacity ramp-up, supporting the company's expansion into the European and American markets [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's operational business is showing steady growth, with improved cash flow expected to support increased dividends [1] - The wastewater treatment business contributes approximately 79% of the company's gross profit, highlighting its importance to overall profitability [1] - The company has established a financial shared service center and issued green bonds with a reduced coupon rate of 2.06%, which may further lower interest costs and enhance profit margins [1] - The report anticipates continued improvement in the company's accounts receivable collection, particularly from the Tianjin Water Authority, as the local government actively works to resolve hidden debts [2][3] - The company is strategically expanding into new business areas such as renewable energy cooling and heating, distributed photovoltaics, and sludge disposal, which could create a second growth curve [4] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million yuan, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin was 37.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 22.5%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 945 million, 1.051 billion, and 1.100 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.08%, 11.24%, and 4.67% respectively [4] - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.60, 0.67, and 0.70 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.79, 8.80, and 8.41 times [4][5]

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][7] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [8] - Year-to-date, the strategy has generated an absolute return of 51.95%, exceeding the CSI 500 index by 26.72%, with a weekly excess return of 1.87% [9] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [2][11] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.51%, with an annualized excess return of 26.51% [12] - This year, the strategy has recorded an absolute return of 55.07%, outperforming the benchmark index by 29.84%, with a weekly excess return of 0.71% [12] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences categorized as GARP, growth, and value, focusing on finding undervalued stocks with strong profitability and stable growth potential [3][14] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 18.16% relative to the CSI 300 index, and a weekly excess return of 1.47% [16] - The strategy's performance indicates a robust approach to capturing market opportunities based on investor preferences [16]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is currently in an upward trend, with the WIND All A index showing a positive money-making effect of approximately 0.87% [2][10][15] - The report suggests maintaining a portfolio allocation of 80% in absolute return products based on the current valuation levels of the WIND All A index, which is at the 85th percentile for PE and the 50th percentile for PB, indicating a moderate valuation [11][8] Market Overview - The WIND All A index experienced a slight decline of 0.18% over the past week, with small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 down by 0.02%, mid-cap stocks in the CSI 500 up by 0.32%, and large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50 down by 0.44% and 1.98% respectively [9][10] - The report highlights strong performance in sectors such as power equipment and new energy, with new energy stocks rising by 3.61%, while the banking sector saw a decline of 4.09% [9][10] Timing System Analysis - The distance between the short-term (20-day) and long-term (120-day) moving averages continues to widen, indicating a sustained upward trend in the market, with the latest figures showing a 13.57% difference [2][10] - The report emphasizes that as long as the money-making effect remains positive, there is potential for continued inflow of incremental funds into the market [2][10][15] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from policy-driven growth, including innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and chemicals, while also suggesting a renewed focus on precious metals [2][10][15] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend technology sectors, particularly in computing power and consumer electronics [2][10][15]