金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 净利润断层本周超额基准 1.87% 戴维斯双击策略 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、 市盈率相应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。 策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 根据对优秀基金的归因，投资者的偏好可以分为：GARP 型，成长型以及 价值型。GARP 型投资者希望以相对低的价格买入盈利能力强、成长潜力 稳定的公司。以 PB 与 ROE 的分位数之差构建 PBROE 因子，寻找估值低并 且盈利能力强的股票；以 PE 与增速的分位数之差构建 PEG 因子，寻找价 值被低估且拥有可靠的成长潜力的公司。 基于投资者偏好因子构建增强沪深 300 组合，历史回测超额收益稳定。本 年组合相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为 13.06%；本周超额收益为-1.03%；本 月超额收益为 2.45%。 风险提示：模型基于历史数据，存在失效的风险；市场风格变化风险。 2025 年 06 月 22 日 今年以来，策略累计绝对收益 12.25%，超额中证 50 ...

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended the issuance of the first two data center infrastructure REITs, namely the Runze Technology Data Center Project and the GDS Data Center Project, which have received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1][7] - These projects represent the first of their kind in the data center asset category and are private investment projects, which will enhance the innovation of investment and financing mechanisms in the new infrastructure sector, promote the development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence industries, and broaden financing channels for private enterprises [1][7] - The NDRC plans to intensify its efforts in regularly recommending the issuance of infrastructure REITs to expand the market and support effective investment [1][7] Group 2: Primary Market - As of June 20, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs has reached 174.4 billion, with a total of 66 REITs issued [8][9] Group 3: Market Performance - During the week of June 16-20, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index increased by 0.88%, while the REITs Total Index rose by 2.08%, and the Property REITs Index saw a rise of 2.95% [2][17] - The REITs Total Index outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 2.54 percentage points and the CSI All Bond Index by 1.80 percentage points, but underperformed the Nanhua Commodity Index by 0.21 percentage points [2][17] - Notable individual REITs included Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT (+8.10%), Huaxia Fund Huayuan REIT (+7.77%), and CICC Xiamen Anju REIT (+7.72%) [2][17] Group 4: Liquidity - The total trading activity of REITs increased this week, with a total trading volume (MA5) of 569 million, up 3.8% from the previous week [3][37] - The trading volumes for property and operating rights REITs (MA5) were 317 million and 252 million, respectively, reflecting changes of 5.6% and 1.6% from the previous week [3][37] - The largest trading volume among REIT types this week was in transportation infrastructure, accounting for 26.2% of total trading volume [3][37] Group 5: Valuation - The report does not provide specific valuation metrics or insights related to the REITs or the broader market [42]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 国际油价升至年内高位 证券研究报告 高频经济跟踪周报 20250621 需求：新房成交续升，汽车消费回暖 （1）地产方面，本周 20 城商品房成交面积环比续升，同比由正转负。二 线城市新房成交增幅较大，重点城市二手房成交面积环比大多下降。 （2）消费方面，乘用车零售日均销量和批发日均销量环比大幅上升，观影 消费低于季节性，出行表现有所分化，全国迁徙规模指数环周回暖，一线 城市地铁客运量环周回落。 生产：工业生产平稳向好，下游开工率回升 （1）中上游方面，螺纹钢开工率基本持平，PTA 开工率与石油沥青装置开 工率环周小幅下降，涤纶长丝开工率环周上升，指向基建开工或边际改善。 （2）下游方面，汽车全钢胎开工率由降转升，半钢胎开工率较上周小幅上 升，半钢胎绝对值仍高于历年同期水平，以旧换新补贴政策支持下短期内 对生产端或有一定支撑。 投资：螺纹钢表观消费偏弱，水泥价格有所回落 螺纹表观消费表现偏弱，螺纹钢价格环周下降，随着下游需求淡季到来， 螺纹钢需求或将呈现环比下滑的态势；水泥发运率下降，水泥库容比上升， 水泥价格有所回落。 贸易：港口吞吐量下降，出口集运价格续涨 （1）出口方面，港口 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry as a key investment theme for the year, anticipating 2025 to be a pivotal year for AI infrastructure and applications in China [3][20]. - The report highlights significant growth in the global Ethernet switch market, with a 32.3% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand from data centers as cloud service providers build infrastructure for the AI era [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring AI industry dynamics and investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" strategy [3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations for optical modules and devices include: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [4][23]. - For switch server PCBs, recommended stocks are: Hudian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [4][23]. - Low valuation and high dividend opportunities in cloud and computing resources are identified in China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [4][23]. - AIDC and cooling solutions highlight key recommendations for Yingweike and Runze Technology [4][23]. - AIGC applications and edge computing power focus on recommended stocks like Guohua Communication and Meige Intelligent [4][23]. 2. Marine Wind and Cable & Intelligent Driving - Key recommendations for marine wind and cable include: Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [5][24]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the overseas expansion and intelligent driving sectors [5][24]. 3. Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - The report notes accelerated development in low-orbit satellites and the low-altitude economy, recommending companies like Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [6][25][26]. 4. Industry Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 1.43% during the week of June 16-20, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.89 percentage points [27]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks within the communication sector, noting significant gains for companies like Chutianlong and Dongxin Peace [29]. 5. Key Stock Recommendations - Specific stock recommendations include Zhongji Xuchuang (buy), Tianfu Communication (overweight), and Hudian Co. (overweight) [10][23]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of stocks in the AI and digital economy sectors for potential investment opportunities [21][22].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [4] Core Insights - The trend of credit "balance sheet reduction" is accelerating, with significant changes in total volume, structure, institutions, and pace observed in the first five months of the year [9][18] - The effective credit demand remains weak, leading to a strong policy-driven effect on credit issuance, particularly among small and medium-sized banks [9][10] - The loan interest rate decline has significantly slowed down, indicating an improvement in the supply-demand relationship for credit [14][18] Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of Credit Issuance This Year - The total amount of new loans in Q1 was nearly 10 trillion, with a year-on-year increase, but the monthly new loans in April and May hit historical lows [9][10] - The structure of credit issuance shows a rise in short-term loans for enterprises while long-term loans are declining, indicating a credit rush phenomenon during the "opening red" period [9][10] - Policy banks are expected to maintain a higher loan issuance rate compared to commercial banks, which are experiencing a more pronounced reduction in credit [10][12] 2. Characteristics of Deposit Growth This Year - M2 growth remains high at 8%, but signs of fund circulation are emerging, with banks engaging in high-cost interbank borrowing while offering low rates for repurchase agreements [19][20] - The deposit generation rate from loans is weak, with a historical low gap between corporate loans and deposits [25][26] - The average duration of deposits is declining as banks adjust their liability structures to mitigate interest rate risks [26][29] 3. Market Implications - The ongoing trend of credit "balance sheet reduction" suggests a friendly monetary environment, with low funding rates expected to persist [30][33] - The emergence of fund circulation phenomena necessitates attention to potential marginal adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank [30][29] - The anticipated limited downward adjustment in LPR and loan rates in the second half of the year may lead to an increase in loan spreads despite a decrease in LPR [33][30]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: **bp** - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the valuation level of a stock based on its book-to-price ratio [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the current net asset divided by the current total market value $ bp = \frac{\text{Current Net Asset}}{\text{Current Total Market Value}} $ [13] 2. Factor Name: **bp Three-Year Percentile** - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative valuation of a stock over the past three years [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Represents the percentile rank of the current bp value within the stock's bp distribution over the last three years [13] 3. Factor Name: **Quarterly EP** - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the profitability of a stock relative to its equity [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the quarterly net profit divided by the net asset $ \text{Quarterly EP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Net Asset}} $ [13] 4. Factor Name: **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile** - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative profitability of a stock over the past year [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Represents the percentile rank of the current quarterly EP value within the stock's EP distribution over the last year [13] 5. Factor Name: **Quarterly SP** - **Factor Construction Idea**: Indicates the revenue generation efficiency of a stock relative to its equity [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the quarterly operating revenue divided by the net asset $ \text{Quarterly SP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Operating Revenue}}{\text{Net Asset}} $ [13] 6. Factor Name: **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile** - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative revenue efficiency of a stock over the past year [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Represents the percentile rank of the current quarterly SP value within the stock's SP distribution over the last year [13] 7. Factor Name: **Fama-French Three-Factor One-Month Residual Volatility** - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock based on its residual volatility after regressing against the Fama-French three-factor model [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the standard deviation of the residuals from the regression of daily returns over the past 20 trading days on the Fama-French three factors $ \text{Residual Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{\sum (\text{Actual Return} - \text{Predicted Return})^2}{n}} $ where "Predicted Return" is derived from the Fama-French three-factor model [13] 8. Factor Name: **One-Month Excess Return Volatility** - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the volatility of a stock's excess return over the past month [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the standard deviation of the excess returns over the past 20 trading days $ \text{Excess Return Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{\sum (\text{Excess Return} - \text{Mean Excess Return})^2}{n}} $ [13] --- Factor Backtesting Results IC Performance - **bp**: Weekly IC = 9.73%, Monthly IC = 2.21%, Yearly IC = 1.64%, Historical IC = 2.27% [9] - **bp Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = 14.75%, Monthly IC = 3.36%, Yearly IC = 2.85%, Historical IC = 1.69% [9] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly IC = -4.31%, Monthly IC = 0.38%, Yearly IC = -0.58%, Historical IC = 1.13% [9] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = 7.25%, Monthly IC = 3.57%, Yearly IC = 0.94%, Historical IC = 1.73% [9] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly IC = -0.92%, Monthly IC = 0.38%, Yearly IC = 0.23%, Historical IC = 0.71% [9] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = 11.79%, Monthly IC = 4.40%, Yearly IC = 3.08%, Historical IC = 1.86% [9] - **Fama-French Three-Factor One-Month Residual Volatility**: Weekly IC = 14.50%, Monthly IC = 5.11%, Yearly IC = 3.29%, Historical IC = 2.54% [9] - **One-Month Excess Return Volatility**: Weekly IC = 14.87%, Monthly IC = 5.14%, Yearly IC = 3.26%, Historical IC = 2.22% [9] Long-Only Portfolio Excess Returns - **bp**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.52%, Monthly Excess Return = -0.36%, Yearly Excess Return = 1.57%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 30.39% [11] - **bp Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.75%, Monthly Excess Return = -0.59%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.19%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -1.63% [11] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.13%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.56%, Yearly Excess Return = 1.05%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 30.66% [11] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.81%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.32%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.53%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 33.78% [11] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.30%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.33%, Yearly Excess Return = 0.34%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -2.98% [11] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.56%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.09%, Yearly Excess Return = 9.91%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 1.99% [11] - **Fama-French Three-Factor One-Month Residual Volatility**: Weekly Excess Return = 1.33%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.68%, Yearly Excess Return = 8.97%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 19.84% [11] - **One-Month Excess Return Volatility**: Weekly Excess Return = 1.34%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.55%, Yearly Excess Return = 10.29%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 11.42% [11]

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 能源品处于周期什么位置？ 原油——大周期仍在页岩油时代，小周期还需等一个破位 原油历史经历了三轮大周期——1970s 的产油国崛起大滞胀、1980-90s 的 石油私有化和大缓和；2000s 的中国需求叠加"阿拉伯之春"。到 2010s 之 后进入页岩油革命时代。虽然 2020s 经历了疫情、俄乌等大事件，但总体来 讲，到 2025 年石油市场仍然笼罩在页岩油大时代的余威中。 小周期来讲，自从美国恢复石油出口之后的 10 年里，看起来似乎五年为一 轮小周期，是页岩油的扩张——收缩周期。目前已经走到 2020-2025 年本 轮小周期的尾声阶段，只差一个破位和出清的过程。 煤炭——走完一个库存周期，底部或已现，但边际供给限制反弹空间 煤炭的产能周期具有政策属性，而库存周期具有市场属性。目前库存周期接 近走完一个轮回。从 2021 年的被动去库，到 2022 年的主动加库，到 2023/24 年的被动加库，到 2025 年进入主动去库。 动力煤 2025 年的供需压力是不言而喻的。供给端的负反馈已经出现，价格 或基本筑底。高成本的供应者（主要是距离消费地远的）包 ...

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a "first suppression, then rise" characteristic in the first half of 2025, with a shift in trading themes due to changing monetary policy expectations and economic fundamentals [1][11][47] - The yield curve transitioned from a bear flattening to a bull flattening, indicating a change in market sentiment and asset repricing [1][11][47] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 is characterized by a moderate recovery, with a projected annual GDP growth of around 5%, but facing challenges from the transition between old and new economic drivers [2][51] - The digital economy and high-end manufacturing are emerging as new growth drivers, but they have not yet fully offset the downward pressure from traditional sectors [2][51] Group 3 - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with expectations for further adjustments, including potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stimulate demand [3][67] - The central bank's approach has shifted towards a more proactive stance in providing liquidity, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations [3][67] Group 4 - Fiscal policy is focused on implementing existing measures while preparing new tools to support infrastructure investment and consumer spending [4][67] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term government bonds is expected to increase to support economic recovery [4][67] Group 5 - The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are changing, with large banks shifting from an "asset shortage" to a "liability shortage," leading to a preference for short-term bonds [5][67] - Insurance companies have reduced their allocation to long-term government bonds, while wealth management products are expected to support the mid-term bond market [5][67] Group 6 - The bond market is entering a "new normal" characterized by low interest rates, low spreads, and high volatility, with a focus on structural investment opportunities [6][50] - Short-term interest rates are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1.3% to 1.5%, while long-term rates may stabilize around 1.5% to 1.8% [6][50]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to address "involution" in the refining and coal chemical sectors, focusing on optimizing industrial layout and curbing the disorderly expansion of backward production capacity. It highlights the importance of eliminating inefficient capacity in industries such as refining and steel, while also advocating for scientific assessment of new capacity projects in coal chemical and alumina sectors to prevent blind construction [3][10] - The report indicates that the coal sector is under scrutiny for environmental protection and safety inspections, with a significant reduction in coal imports expected in the coming months. The China Coal Association has called for strict control over the import and use of low-calorie inferior coal to maintain order in coal imports [4][20] Summary by Sections Refining & Coal Chemical - The report discusses the government's initiative to tackle "involution" competition, which includes enhancing local constraints and breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation. It suggests increasing capacity regulation, adjusting refining structures, and promoting the integration and reduction of capacity in the refining sector [10] - The 2025 Petrochemical Industry Development Conference focused on strategies to overcome growth challenges and eliminate "involution" competition, proposing measures such as capacity control and the elimination of backward production capacity [10] Coal Sector - The report notes the launch of the third round of central ecological and environmental protection inspections, emphasizing the need for thorough safety checks in coal mines, particularly in Shanxi province, where recent accidents have raised concerns [15][18] - It highlights a significant decrease in coal import volumes, with a reported 3.337 million tons imported in the latest week, reflecting a 2.6% week-on-week decline and a 43% year-on-year drop. Cumulative imports for the year have decreased by 25.8% [20]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is under short-term pressure, but there are medium-term strong alpha layout opportunities [2][11] - The consumer goods sector is focused on "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" as two main investment opportunities [3][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From June 9 to June 13, the food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 index had declines of -4.37% and -0.25% respectively. Specific sectors include: - Health products (+2.44%) - Baked goods (-0.72%) - Meat products (-1.15%) - Soft drinks (-1.75%) - Snacks (-1.85%) - Dairy products (-2.41%) - Pre-processed foods (-3.00%) - Other alcoholic beverages (-3.43%) - Fermented seasonings III (-3.57%) - Baijiu III (-5.31%) - Beer (-6.61%) [1][18] Liquor Sector Insights - The baijiu sector saw a decline of -5.31%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300. This is attributed to: 1. Price declines of major baijiu products ahead of the 618 shopping festival 2. Potential impacts from "drinking bans" on certain consumption scenarios - Current prices for 2025 Moutai (original/scattered) are 2000 RMB/1960 RMB, down by 115 RMB/70 RMB from last week. The price for Pu'er (8th generation) is 930 RMB, down by 10 RMB from last week. The baijiu index PE-TTM is currently at 17.81X, which is 3.40% below the reasonable low level over the past decade [2][11][12]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The health products sector saw a positive growth of +2.44%. The report remains optimistic about investment opportunities in health products, soft drinks, and snacks, especially in Q2 due to low performance baselines. The focus is on companies that can achieve "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" [3][13][16]. - The soft drink sector experienced a decline of -1.75%, with notable companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage facing slight declines. The report suggests monitoring the demand resilience as the peak season approaches [13][16]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the soft drink and low-alcohol sectors include: Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulu, Dongpeng Beverage, and others [4][17]. - For the liquor sector, strong alpha companies benefiting from concentration increases are recommended, including Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [4][17]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" are highlighted, including: Lihigh Food, Ximai Food, and others [4][17].