行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 5 月统计局地产指标怎么看？ 行业追踪（2025.6.14-2025.6.20） 1）销售端：2025 年 1-5 月，商品房销售金额同比-3.8%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.6pct；5 月单月销售金额环比+13.1%，同比-6.0%，降幅较 4 月收窄 0.7pct。1-5 月销售面积同比 -2.9%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.1pct；5 月单月商品房销售面积环比+10.3%，同比-3.3%， 降幅较 4 月增大 1.2pct。2） 投资端： 2025 年 1-5 月，房地产开发投资累计完成额同比 -10.7%，较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。5 月单月同比-12.0%，降幅较 4 月增大 0.7pct；新开工 面积累计同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月上升 1.0pct；5 月单月同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月提升 2.9pct； 施工面积累计同比-9.2%,增速较 1-4 月增长 0.5pct；房屋竣工面积累计同比-17.3%，增速 较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。3） 资金端： 2025 年 1-5 月，到位资金同比-5.3%，较 1-4 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that ultra-long credit bonds are leading the market, with credit bond yields following the downward trend of interest rate bonds, although the overall market is still experiencing a compression of credit spreads [1][9] - Short-term credit bonds around 1 year are closely following interest rate trends, with limited room for further compression due to previously extreme spread reductions [1][9] - The performance of ultra-long credit bonds has been particularly strong, transitioning from mid-high grade industrial bonds to urban investment bonds, indicating a robust market sentiment [1][9] Group 2 - As of June 22, 2025, the issuance scale of ultra-long credit bonds has reached 587.8 billion yuan this year, significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating a recovery in supply [2][16] - The report notes that the liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds has improved, driven by increased supply and a more diverse participation from various market entities [4][35] - The report emphasizes that for institutions with stable liabilities, ultra-long credit bonds still offer attractive coupon advantages, making them more appealing than interest rate products [5][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of ultra-long credit bonds during different market conditions, noting that they tend to outperform shorter-term bonds during periods of declining yields due to thicker coupons and longer durations [24][25] - Conversely, during market downturns, ultra-long credit bonds can experience greater capital losses due to their lower liquidity and duration effects, which can lead to negative returns if coupon income is insufficient to cover losses [26][29] - The report indicates that as of June 20, 2025, the total outstanding credit bonds with maturities over 5 years is approximately 2 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of the total credit bond market [20][22]

Market Insights - The recent macroeconomic and high-frequency data indicate a mixed performance, with the economic activity index showing fluctuations after a recovery in May, remaining above "1" but below the levels of 2020-2024 [1][10] - The real estate market has shown a lackluster performance, with transaction volumes in major cities underperforming compared to the same period in previous years [1][13] - The automotive sector is experiencing a steady recovery, benefiting from new policies, with retail and wholesale sales showing significant year-on-year increases of 23% and 38% respectively [1][16] Domestic Economic Data - In May, industrial production increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% [2][33] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.85% [2][41] - Fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with tax revenue remaining positive but non-tax revenue turning negative, indicating a weakening in land transactions [2][58] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2025, reflecting expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment [3][41] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [4]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 1、生猪板块：行业盈利空间持续压缩，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1）猪价低位震荡&仔猪价格继续回落。截至6 月21 日，全国生猪均价 14.37 元/kg，较上周末下跌 0.28%（智农通），本周行业自繁自养盈利约 92 元/ 头，较前期大幅缩窄（5 月头均盈利160 元/头）；本周7kg 仔猪和50kg 二元母猪价格为443 元/头和 1619 元/头，仔猪价格较高点回落超200 元/头。 供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.28kg（环比-0.42%），150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为4.74%（环比-0.08pct），近期降重趋势明确但绝对体重仍处历史同期高 位。需求端，上周价格跌至年内低点后，多数屠企低价分割意愿增强，本周屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比+1.96%。但短期来看，高温期季节性消费淡季， 拖累整体鲜品走货难度增加。近期天气炎热或加速前期大猪出栏，猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势，行业盈利空间持续压缩，或加强去化逻辑。 2）重视生猪板块低估值、预期差！重视优秀企业的盈利能力！在 25 年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能去化容易程度及复产难度或再度提 升，产能有望波 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has maintained a strong trend, with short-term bonds performing well and the ultra-long bond market, represented by 20-year and 50-year government bonds, continuing to thrive. As of June 20, the yields on 1Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, and 50Y government bonds have decreased by 4.5BP, 0.4BP, 5.5BP, 1.2BP, and 4.7BP respectively, reaching 1.36%, 1.64%, 1.87%, 1.84%, and 1.95% [1][6][22]. Group 2 - The central bank has conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation to address multiple liquidity pressures, including a peak maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in June. The central bank's actions aim to smooth out seasonal funding fluctuations and alleviate banks' interest margin pressures, indicating a comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity [2][19][20]. Group 3 - The main buyers of ultra-long bonds are funds, which have significantly increased their holdings of 20-year and 50-year government bonds, net buying 108 billion yuan and 13 billion yuan respectively from June 16 to June 20. Other product categories, including social security and pension funds, have also shown a preference for these long-duration bonds [3][25][23]. Group 4 - The driving factors behind the ultra-long bond market's performance include strengthened expectations of policy easing, a favorable basic economic environment, and the higher coupon yields and capital gains associated with 20-year and 50-year government bonds. The yield curve shows that the 20-year bond remains a key point of interest, with its yield at 1.87% as of June 20 [28][30][31]. Group 5 - The overall environment for the bond market remains relatively favorable, supported by a mild economic recovery and the central bank's liquidity support. However, there are concerns about potential adjustments and liquidity issues as the market evolves. The short-term segment may see opportunities for trading and value in the context of stable deposit prices [35][36].

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 地缘风险持续，影响几何？ 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250622 海外市场复盘（6.16-6.20） 本周欧美主要股指涨跌不一，波动率上升。本周股市主线围绕中东局势、 央行动态展开。周一，消息称伊朗愿重启谈判，美英达成贸易协议，主要 股指普涨。但周二中东局势再度紧张，欧美股市下跌。周三美联储主席鲍 威尔发言偏鹰，发言后美股由涨转跌。周五中东局势持续，抑制股市表现。 美元上涨、美债收益率下行。中东局势持续紧张，鲍威尔暗示通胀仍将面 临关税带来的上行压力，美元指数本周上涨 0.6%。美国公布经济数据疲软， 5 月零售销售环比-0.9%，低于预期值-0.7%，下一任美联储主席热门人选沃 勒放鸽、表示最早 7 月降息，美债收益率继续下行。 商品方面，油价收涨，黄金收跌。中东局势反复，油价本周震荡，连续第 三周收涨，但涨势明显放缓。本周黄金价格下跌，美元反弹压制黄金价格、 伊朗释放缓和信号、以及前期大涨后部分投资者选择获利了结。 海外央行动态 本周，美联储维持利率不变，但鲍威尔表态偏鹰。本次 FOMC 经济预测中， 美联储下调 GDP 预测、上调失业率预测、上调通胀预测。点阵图比 ...

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced and loose, with DR001 falling below the 1.4% policy rate, and state-owned banks' net financing reaching a year-high of 4.55 trillion yuan [1][11][27] - Historical trends indicate that at the end of June, funding rates typically rise, but the central bank often increases liquidity support, especially during a month with significant fiscal spending [21][27] - Concerns for the upcoming cross-quarter period include a high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit exceeding 4 trillion yuan, and a recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks, which may lead to deposit outflows [26][27] Group 2 - Next week, the market will see over 10 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, along with the continuation of MLF operations, indicating ongoing liquidity support from the central bank [2][33] - Government bond net payments are expected to increase significantly, with a net payment of 7.498 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial fiscal activity [4][31] - The interbank certificate of deposit maturity will be 11.092 trillion yuan, which remains substantial, and attention will be paid to the pressure of renewing these deposits as the quarter-end approaches [6][31] Group 3 - The average daily net financing from state-owned banks has been rising, with a significant increase noted this week, indicating a robust liquidity position [5][27] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit remains stable, with no significant upward pressure on rates, suggesting a controlled liquidity environment [6][27] - The second quarter has seen an acceleration in fiscal bond issuance, which is expected to provide additional liquidity support as the quarter-end approaches [27][39]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：如期调整，止跌信号看什么？ 如期调整，止跌信号看什么？ 上周周报(20250615)认为：短期市场宏观不确定性增加和指数在震荡格局 上沿位置的压制下，风险偏好较难快速提升，继续维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 全周表现先扬后抑，下跌 1.07%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票 的中证 2000 下跌 2.22%，中盘股中证 500 下跌 1.75%，沪深 300 下跌 0.45%， 上证 50 下跌 0.1%;上周中信一级行业中，表现较强行业包括银行、综合金 融，银行上涨 3.13%，医药、纺织服装表现较弱，医药下跌 4.16%。上周成 交活跃度上，石油石化资金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离继续扩大，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 5130，120 日线收于 5075 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之上， 两线差值由上周的 0.99%扩大至 1.09%，距离绝对值继续小于 3%，市场继续 处于震荡格局。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，模型基于历 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to an increase in gold prices due to its safe-haven appeal, while the strong performance of the US dollar has exerted pressure on gold prices [5][23] - The basic metals sector is experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices remaining stable amid weak domestic demand, while aluminum prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and inventory reductions [4][18][19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are supported by safe-haven buying, but face pressure from a strong dollar [5][23] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies in the sector [14][22] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a high range, with domestic consumption weakening and inventory levels increasing [12][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing inventory reductions, with current prices at 20,490 CNY/ton [18][19] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have risen to an average of 786.42 CNY/gram, while silver prices have also seen a slight increase [5][23] 2. Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices are mixed, with some products seeing slight increases while overall market activity remains subdued [6][56] - Rare Earths: Prices for light and heavy rare earths have increased, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7] 3. Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao in the aluminum sector, as well as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Lingnan in the precious metals sector [14][22]

公司报告 | 首次覆盖报告 金风科技（002202） 证券研究报告 风机制造与风场运营双轮驱动，风机制造盈利迎来拐点 全球风机龙头，风机制造与风场运营双轮驱动。公司成立于 2001 年，根 据彭博新能源财经统计，2024 年公司国内风电新增装机容量达 18.67GW， 国内市场份额占比 22%，连续十四年排名全国第一，连续三年全球排名第 一。公司三大主营业务为风机制造、风电服务、风电场投资与开发，风电 场投资开发毛利率较高，贡献公司主要利润；2024 年公司风机制造毛利率 处于历史底部，公司风机制造与风场运营双轮驱动。 主业：国内风机价格触底回升，风机出口贡献新增长点。2024 年，中国风 电行业低价竞争态势缓解，行业中标价格企稳回升，行业逐步从"价格战" 向"价值竞争"转型，2024 年 Q3 以来风机价格在 1550 元/kw 左右，并持 续小幅上升。风机出口增长强劲，根据 CWEA，2024 年中国风机出口容量 为 5.2GW，同比增长 42%；新增订单看，根据风芒能源，2024 年国内风机 商海外订单新增 34.3GW，同比高增 345.5%。 看点一：风机制造盈利迎来拐点，公司"海风+出海"优势明显 ...