港股公司报告 | 首次覆盖报告 敏实集团（00425） 证券研究报告 产能周期视角下经营拐点向上，机器人打开第二增长极 公司概况：全球化汽车零部件龙头，业务多元布局 敏实集团是全球领先的汽车外饰件及车身结构件供应商，业务覆盖全球 14 个国家，拥有 77 家工厂及 4 大产品线（塑件、铝件、金属饰条、电池盒）， 客户包括宝马、奔驰、特斯拉等 70 余个汽车品牌。公司历经三大发展阶段： 初创培育期（金属饰条等传统业务起步）、轻量化转型与全球化布局期（铝 件业务拓展）、创新发展期（电池盒、智能外饰等新兴业务突破），2020 年 重组为四大业务单元，目前已成为全球最大的电池盒和车身结构件供应商 之一。 经营拐点：资本开支放缓，盈利修复态势明确 核心拐点体现在： 传统主业：技术与客户优势巩固基本盘 重点增量：电池盒业务高增长动能明确 新业务布局：机器人领域拓展第二增长曲线 公司与智元机器人达成战略合作，聚焦智能外饰与电子皮肤、一体化关节 总成、无线充电等领域，产品覆盖工业制造、仓储物流等场景，依托汽车 零部件制造经验，推动柔性智造解决方案，有望形成新的收入增长点。 盈利预测与投资建议 预 计 2025-2027 年公 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of abandoning illusions and tackling challenges head-on, highlighting the transition between old and new economic drivers, with a focus on domestic demand and technological innovation in sectors like AI, robotics, and semiconductors [3][13][36] - The report notes that while there are short-term risks, the long-term competitive advantages of Chinese exports are significant, with a record trade surplus of $1,127.1 billion as of May 2025, indicating a strong export trend [36][40] - The report discusses the increasing significance of the capital market, with expectations of a shift from a focus on liquidity to encouraging credit expansion, supported by recent policy changes aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market [3][62][70] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment themes, including domestic consumption driven by policy support and the emergence of autonomous and controllable sectors, which are seen as vital for national strategy and economic resilience [4][5][30] - The report highlights the rapid growth potential of the marine economy, which is projected to contribute significantly to GDP, with a focus on deep-sea technology and green transformation initiatives [5][30] - The report outlines the expected growth in the humanoid robotics market, with a projected CAGR of over 80% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a strong investment opportunity in this sector [30][32]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation is increasingly complex, with conflicts such as the Ukraine crisis and the Israel-Iran conflict contributing to global instability. This environment suggests a growing demand for military trade, which is expected to open up new opportunities for the defense industry [4][6]. - Advanced fighter jets like the J-10CE and J-35 are anticipated to become strategic cornerstones for China's military trade, significantly impacting the long-term development of the military industry [4]. - The military trade sector is likely to experience a transformation from "single equipment" procurement to "systematic equipment" procurement, enhancing the overall value of military contracts [5]. Summary by Sections Military Trade Demand and Supply - According to SIPRI, from 2020 to 2024, the top five military trade importers are Ukraine (8.8%), India (8.3%), Qatar (6.8%), Saudi Arabia (6.8%), and Pakistan (4.6%). A total of 25 countries have an import share of 1% or more [4]. - The top five military trade exporters are the United States (43%), France (9.6%), Russia (7.8%), China (5.9%), and Germany (5.6%), with China ranking fourth globally, indicating strong competitiveness [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines within the military trade sector: 1. Radar: Companies like Aerospace South Lake and Guorui Technology 2. Main Platforms: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group 3. Unmanned Systems: Companies like Aerospace Electronics, Zhongyun Drone, Aerospace Rainbow, and Zongheng Co. 4. Guided Equipment and Others: Companies including Great Wall Industry Corporation, Guangdong Hongda, Zhongtian Rocket, and others [6].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of the "congestion degree" indicator, which reflects the proportion of trading volume in a sector relative to the overall market, indicating whether a sector is popular or overheated [3][21][22] - It notes that in the long term, sectors in A-shares that experience "acceleration followed by volume" are likely to underperform in the following month, with exceptions observed during the 2020-2021 core asset era [3][22] - The report suggests that the effectiveness of volume-price logic is steadily increasing post-2023, making volume and technical indicators more significant [3][22] Group 2 - The medical device sector showed a robust growth in May, with a total bid amount of 13.43 billion yuan, representing a 69% year-on-year increase, and a total of 71.45 billion yuan for the first five months, up 72% year-on-year [5] - Domestic brands like Mindray and United Imaging have shown significant growth in bid amounts, with Mindray's total bid amount in May reaching 820 million yuan, a 56% increase year-on-year [5] - Import brands also saw rapid growth, with Philips and Siemens reporting year-on-year increases of 62% and 112% respectively in May [5] Group 3 - The report highlights the strong investment opportunities in the western infrastructure sector, with solid growth in fixed asset investment since 2024, particularly in regions like Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet [10] - It identifies key areas and major projects for investment, such as Sichuan-Chongqing, Tibet, and Xinjiang, which are expected to drive demand for infrastructure construction [10] - The report indicates that the central government's continued financial support and strategic planning will likely sustain the high level of infrastructure investment in the western regions [10] Group 4 - The report on Huahong Semiconductor indicates a positive outlook due to a new price increase cycle, with the company expected to leverage its strong pricing power to enhance profitability [29][30] - The new factory (9th plant) is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with an estimated future revenue space of 1.277 billion USD if operating at near full capacity [30] - The acquisition of Huali Micro is expected to enhance Huahong's competitive edge, with projections for revenue growth reaching 17.2 billion yuan by 2025 [31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 76.88 CNY, based on a 3.0x PB valuation for 2025 [7][48]. Core Views - The report highlights three main factors supporting the long-term growth of the company: the potential for a new price increase cycle, the growth from the expansion of the 9th factory, and the acquisition of Huali Microelectronics enhancing overall competitiveness [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Huahong Semiconductor, is a leading specialty foundry in mainland China, focusing on embedded/non-volatile memory, power devices, analog and power management, and logic/RF technologies, with applications in emerging fields such as electric vehicles, green energy, and IoT [1][20]. Price Increase Cycle - The company is expected to initiate a new price increase cycle due to full production capacity and rising costs, with a capacity utilization rate of 102.7% in Q1 2025 and increasing market demand [2][25]. - The anticipated price increases in the wafer foundry industry are expected to enhance the company's profitability [2][28]. Expansion of the 9th Factory - The 9th factory is projected to generate a future revenue potential of 1.277 billion USD, with a monthly capacity of 83,000 wafers and a total investment of 6.7 billion USD [3][36]. - The factory is expected to be operational by December 2024, contributing significantly to revenue growth as it ramps up production [3][36]. Acquisition of Huali Microelectronics - The acquisition of Huali Microelectronics is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge, with plans to integrate Huali Micro into Huahong Semiconductor within three years of its IPO [4][39]. - Huali Micro is noted for its advanced 12-inch fully automated IC manufacturing line, which will bolster Huahong's production capabilities [4][39]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 17.2 billion, 20.4 billion, and 24.4 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits of 800.82 million, 1.286 billion, and 1.985 billion CNY [5][46]. - The company is expected to maintain a high capacity utilization rate of around 100% due to strong demand in sectors like new energy vehicles and AI hardware [46][48]. Valuation - The report suggests that the company is better suited for PB valuation due to its heavy asset nature and the impact of depreciation on short-term profits [48]. - The average PB for comparable companies is projected at 3.19 for 2025, with Huahong's target PB set at 3.0x, reflecting its leading position in specialty foundry technology [48][49].

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 6 月 FOMC：降息门槛仍高 证券研究报告 6 月美联储议息会议点评 6 月 FOMC：通胀风险，就业稳健，保持观望 6 月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。总体来看，特朗普政 府政策不确定性之下，美联储将保持谨慎，耐心等待更明确的降息信号。 会议声明：未有重大变化，不确定性有所下降。本次会议声明将"经济前 景的不确定性进一步增加"改成"经济前景的不确定性有所下降，但仍较 高"；删除了"高失业和高通胀的风险都有所上升"的表述。 经济预测：更高通胀、更低增长。本次经济预测（SEP）显示，相较于 3 月的预测美联储进一步靠近"滞胀"：GDP 下调、失业率上调、通胀上调。 点阵图：比 3 月更鹰，下调 2026 年降息预期。本次委员们维持 2025 年底 前降息 50bp 的预测中值不变，但增加了 3 个人、预计今年不降息；下调 2026 年降息预计为 25bp（3 月预测为降息 50bp）。 美联储主席鲍威尔的表态相对偏鹰。关于就业，鲍威尔指出就业增长确实 有所下降，但失业率仍在较低水平，劳动力供需都在同步下降。关于通胀， 鲍威尔表示"我们预计未来几个月将出现显著的通胀"，并 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 板块的拥挤度本质是该板块成交量占整体的比例，比例越高，说明该板块是热 门板块，"拥挤"是指历史纵向比较在较高的历史百分位，往往意味着该板块 过度热门，短期内有向下调整的压力。短中长期乖离率高位本质是短期"涨多 了"。两者一个是"量"的指标，一个是"价"的指标，均表示冷热度。但热 门板块总有自己上涨的原因，真正结束要看这个原因什么时候结束，量价指标 运用的有效性也会可能随着市场风格变化而变化。 长期来看，A 股的行业，在"加速后放量"的状态下，一个月内跑输是大概率 事件；反例是 20-21 年核心资产时代，短暂地无视了这一规律，呈现出"过 热后还有过热"。 出现"加速后放量"后，未来一个月的行业相对全 A 超额基本为负。但 20-21 年是例外，因此 20-21 年也会培养出很多无视量价、注重产业赛道和商业模式 的投资方法论。但从 23 年后，量价逻辑的有效性其实是稳步提升的，量价和 技术面更加重要了。 行业比较周报 证券研究报告 拥挤度指标运用的深入思考 核心结论： 长期来看，A 股的行业，在"加速后放量"的状态下，一个月内 跑输是大概率事件；反例是 20-21 年核心资产时代，短暂地 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 533 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 26.0% to 90 million yuan [1]. - The materials business showed a robust performance with a revenue of 363 million yuan in 2024, marking a growth of 14.31% year-on-year, and is expected to contribute positively to future earnings as new products are launched [2]. - The company successfully won a bid for a 6.55 billion yuan order for 8.6 generation evaporation source equipment from BOE, which is anticipated to enhance revenue growth in the coming years [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 533 million yuan, with a gross margin of 51.22% and a net margin of 16.97% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 153 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 40.7%, but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 121.8%, resulting in a net profit of 25 million yuan [1][2]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 163 million yuan, 343 million yuan, and 565 million yuan respectively, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4]. Business Segment Insights - The materials segment has shown consistent growth, achieving a historical high of 136 million yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, with expectations for continued expansion as new products gain market traction [2]. - The equipment segment faced challenges due to industry transitions but has secured significant contracts that are expected to positively impact future performance [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.97, indicating a favorable valuation compared to future earnings growth [5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 58.94%, 78.24%, and 41.54% respectively, showcasing strong growth potential [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][46]. Core Viewpoints - The total bid amount for medical devices in May 2025 reached 13.43 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 69% and a cumulative total of 71.45 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 72% [5][11]. - Domestic medical device companies showed significant growth, with notable increases in ultrasound and endoscope categories [6][20][23]. - Imported brands also experienced rapid growth, particularly in CT equipment, which saw a year-on-year increase of 282% for Siemens in May [7][35]. Summary by Sections Medical Device Procurement Overview - The total bid amount for May 2025 was 13.43 billion yuan, a 69% increase year-on-year, while the cumulative total for January to May was 71.45 billion yuan, up 72% year-on-year [11][12]. Domestic Brands - Major domestic companies like Mindray, United Imaging, and Aohua Endoscopy reported substantial growth in bid amounts, with Mindray achieving 8.19 billion yuan in May, a 56% increase year-on-year [17][18]. - Aohua Endoscopy's bid amount in May was 0.35 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable 242% year-on-year growth [20][21]. - Other companies like KAILI and Shanfeng also reported significant increases, with KAILI's bid amount growing by 137% in May [23][24]. Imported Brands - Philips reported a bid amount of 6.11 billion yuan in May, a 62% increase year-on-year, while Siemens achieved 11.57 billion yuan, marking a 112% increase [32][35]. - GE's bid amount reached 9.54 billion yuan in May, reflecting a 47% year-on-year growth [38][39]. - The CT segment for Siemens saw a staggering 282% increase in May, highlighting the strong demand for advanced imaging technologies [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.75 CNY, based on a current price of 17.02 CNY [7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of automotive electronic and safety solutions, with a strong position in smart cockpit, intelligent driving, and new energy management [1][15]. - The automotive safety business has seen significant growth, with new project orders reaching a historical high of approximately 574 billion CNY for 2024 [2][37]. - The company is expanding its ecosystem by securing intelligent driving orders and collaborating with technology partners to enhance its competitive solutions [3][51]. - The company is leveraging its automotive technology to enter the robotics sector, positioning itself as a Tier 1 supplier for intelligent robots [4][66]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 645.12 billion CNY, 716.32 billion CNY, and 788.18 billion CNY, with net profits of 15.65 billion CNY, 18.77 billion CNY, and 22.99 billion CNY respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a global leader in automotive electronics and safety solutions since its listing in 2011, with a focus on innovation through acquisitions and research institutes [1][15]. - It has a diversified product matrix covering multiple automotive domains, including smart driving and cockpit systems [21]. Safety Business Growth - The global automotive safety standards are evolving, driving demand for enhanced safety features, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [30][31]. - The company ranks second globally in the passive safety market, with a market share of 23.1% [36]. Intelligent Driving and Cockpit Integration - The intelligent cockpit market is projected to grow significantly, with the company holding a 10.3% market share globally [47]. - Collaborations with major chip manufacturers are enhancing the company's capabilities in intelligent driving solutions [52]. Robotics Expansion - The global humanoid robot market is expected to reach 32.4 billion USD by 2029, with the company aiming to leverage its automotive technology to penetrate this market [60][64]. - Strategic partnerships in the robotics sector are expected to yield additional orders and enhance the company's product offerings [68].