金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 基金季报（T 期）披露有股票持仓的证监会行业配置信息，基金最近（T-1 期）半年报、年报会披露全部股票持仓，可得基金半年报、年报末非重仓 股持仓信息。假设基金非重仓股持仓在两期各行业下持股种类不变，仅持 股权重按比例变化，那么根据 T-1 期非重仓股持仓按比例放缩权重可得到 T 期非重仓股模拟持仓。 基金风格配置监控周报： 权益基金连续两周上调小盘股票仓位 公募基金风格监控 2025 年 06 月 15 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 基金季报中披露有基金前十大重仓股，同时企业季度报告中披露有企业的 前十大股东信息（主要使用上市公司 1、3 季度十大股东信息），结合这两 部分信息我们可以得到基金持仓更加详细的重仓股信息。因此模拟全部股 票持仓只需要估计基金剩余的非重仓持股明细。 韩乾 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110522100001 hanqian@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报：盈利、分红因子表现较好 -20250614》 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 55.24 CNY based on the current price of 36.93 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the therapeutic drug sector for over 20 years, focusing on infectious diseases, respiratory and critical care, autoimmune diseases, and neurological disorders. It has a rich pipeline of research and sales [1][14]. - The company’s key product, STSP-0601, has received breakthrough therapy designation and has submitted a conditional marketing application, indicating strong potential in the hemophilia treatment market [2][32]. - The company is experiencing a transitional phase with a projected revenue decline in 2024, but it is expected to enter an accelerated growth phase from 2025 onwards [4][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2002 in Beijing, the company specializes in innovative drugs across various therapeutic areas and has developed national class 1 new drugs [1][14]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with key executives possessing extensive research backgrounds [19][21]. Research and Development Pipeline - The company has multiple products in clinical trials, including STSP-0601 for hemophilia, STSA-1002 for ARDS, and BDB-001 for ANCA-associated vasculitis, all showing promising results [3][4][30]. - STSP-0601 has shown significant efficacy in clinical trials, with a high potential market due to the large number of hemophilia patients in China [2][47]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 3.36 billion CNY in 2025, with a gradual recovery in profitability projected by 2027 [4][5]. - The 2024 revenue is expected to be 3.25 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.81% decrease from the previous year, but the company is on track to reduce losses [25][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is well-positioned in the market with its innovative drug pipeline and has received recognition for its breakthrough therapies, enhancing its competitive edge [2][4]. - The focus on developing high-quality, accessible treatments for chronic conditions like hemophilia is expected to drive future growth [32][34].

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, waiting for growth to manifest, and then selling for a multiplier effect, achieving returns from both earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][8] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 14.65%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 14.40% [11] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on stocks that exceed earnings expectations and show a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after earnings announcements [13] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 28.69%, with an annualized excess return of 27.07% over the benchmark [16] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 18.68%, outperforming the benchmark index by 18.42% [16] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, focusing on stocks with low price-to-book (PB) ratios and high return on equity (ROE) [18] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 14.31% relative to the CSI 300 index [22] - The strategy's performance this week yielded an excess return of 0.95% [22]

Group 1 - The report highlights the successful completion of the expansion and issuance of the Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, marking the first expansion of a rental housing REIT in China [1][7]. - As of June 13, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 174.4 billion, with 66 REITs issued [8]. - The overall REITs market showed positive performance, with the CSI REITs total return index increasing by 0.69% during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025 [2][16]. Group 2 - The liquidity of the REITs market improved, with a total trading volume of 548 million yuan, reflecting a 10.1% increase week-on-week [3][36]. - The trading volume for different categories of REITs showed significant variations, with the largest category being transportation infrastructure, accounting for 30.0% of the total trading volume [3][36]. - The report indicates that the trading volume for affordable rental housing REITs increased by 63.4% week-on-week, highlighting strong investor interest in this segment [3][36]. Group 3 - The report provides a comparative analysis of various asset classes, showing that the REITs total index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points during the same week [2][16]. - The performance of individual REITs was notable, with Huaxia Fund's Huayuan Youchao REIT leading with a gain of 4.32% [2][16]. - The report also includes historical performance data, indicating that the REITs total index has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.43% [26].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold, which has led to an increase in gold prices [3] - Basic metals such as copper and aluminum are experiencing divergent price trends, with copper prices remaining stable while aluminum prices have seen a slight increase [2][23] - The tungsten market is experiencing price increases, although market activity remains subdued [4][56] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to a combination of fundamental and sentiment factors [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with current prices at 78,350 CNY/ton. Domestic supply is high, and export plans are being arranged by some smelters, leading to potential inventory pressures [2][14] - Aluminum prices have increased slightly, with current prices at 20,465 CNY/ton, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory [2][23] - Gold prices have been influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the average price at 773.50 CNY/gram, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous week [3][27] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,500 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate at 252,500 CNY/ton [4][56] - The lithium market remains weak, with prices stabilizing around 60,000-65,000 CNY/ton [41][42] - Cobalt prices are stable, with the CIF price at 11.3-11.6 USD/pound, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [44][45] Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices have decreased by 1.4% to 442,500 CNY/ton, while heavy rare earths have also seen slight declines [5] - The magnetic materials sector is expected to improve as licensing for manufacturers progresses, indicating potential long-term opportunities [5] Market Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Rare Earth Holdings [2][5][26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the global panoramic imaging sector, aiming to become a world-class brand through continuous technological innovation and a strong product lineup [1][12]. - The company has achieved rapid revenue and profit growth, with a focus on maintaining a high R&D expense ratio of 12%-14% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a commitment to technological investment [2]. - The global market for smart imaging devices is experiencing significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.3% from 2017 to 2023, driven by the demand for VR/AR and sports photography [3][51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015, specializes in the research and production of smart imaging devices, including panoramic and action cameras, and holds a 67.2% market share in the global panoramic camera market as of 2023 [1][12]. - The product categories include consumer-grade devices, professional-grade devices, and accessories, with consumer-grade devices accounting for approximately 85% of revenue over the past three years [1][26]. Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid growth in revenue and profit from 2021 to 2024, with a projected revenue of 3,636.39 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 12,193.40 million yuan by 2027 [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,309.26 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 31.62% [8]. Industry Analysis - The smart imaging device industry is projected to grow significantly, with the global market size increasing from 164.3 billion yuan in 2017 to 364.7 billion yuan in 2023 [51]. - The company benefits from favorable industry policies that support the development of virtual reality technologies, providing long-term advantages [51][56]. Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its global influence and brand recognition by focusing on technological innovation, product planning, and global branding strategies [50]. - Future plans include expanding production capacity and establishing R&D centers to strengthen its competitive edge in the smart imaging market [2][46].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the communication power supply industry, benefiting from the increase in computing power in AI data centers [1][15]. - The growth in data center power supply is driven by the rapid increase in computing power and the expansion of 5G networks, which significantly boosts energy demand [2][31]. - The company has a strong position in the HVDC market, which is expected to see accelerated penetration due to its advantages over traditional UPS systems [2][36]. - The renewable energy installation in China is projected to reach new heights, driving demand for new power systems [3][51]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in electric vehicle charging infrastructure, with a significant increase in the number of new energy vehicles [3][56]. Summary by Sections Communication Power Supply Industry - The company has been focused on the power supply sector for 29 years and is recognized as a leader in the industry [15]. - The revenue from data center power supply is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 111.05% year-on-year [17]. - The company maintains a stable shareholding structure, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [20]. Data Center Power Supply & Site Energy - The global computing power scale has grown rapidly, with a CAGR of 46.5% from 2020 to 2023, reaching 1369 EFLOPS [2][31]. - The number of 5G base stations in China is expected to reach 4.251 million by the end of 2024, with a CAGR of 53.24% [2][43]. - The power consumption of 5G base stations is significantly higher than that of 4G, necessitating upgrades to power systems [2][47]. Power Supply & Charging Piles - The new energy installation capacity in China is projected to reach 358 million kilowatts in 2024, accounting for 82.6% of new energy installations [3][51]. - The number of new energy vehicles registered in China is expected to grow by 51.49% in 2024, driving demand for charging infrastructure [3][56]. - The company is one of the earliest players in the new energy vehicle charging pile market, with a comprehensive product line [3][58]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 28.47 billion, 38.91 billion, and 47.96 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.1%, 36.7%, and 23.3% respectively [3][68]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.57 billion, 2.13 billion, and 2.76 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 43.2%, 36.0%, and 29.5% respectively [3][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The company's "New Cultural Tourism" strategy has shown significant results, with a notable increase in visitor numbers and revenue during the "May Day" holiday, where total visitors reached approximately 523,000, a year-on-year increase of over 83%, and revenue grew by 63.8% [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 922 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.67%, but net profit decreased by 89.1% to 3 million yuan due to reduced IPO numbers and lower profits from investment projects [1]. - The cultural tourism business is advancing with a focus on "Culture + Technology + Tourism," achieving a revenue of 411 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 10.52% of total revenue, with a 51% increase in visitor numbers across various attractions [2]. - The investment management business is deepening its focus on hard technology investments, generating 505 million yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 100% [3]. - The company is actively expanding into the trendy toy market through its "Wawoyou Circle" platform and investments in IPSTAR, aiming to enhance its presence in the cultural and entertainment sectors [4]. Financial Summary - The company expects revenues of 4.33 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, and net profits of 250 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from previous years [5]. - Financial projections indicate a gradual increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of 4.78 billion yuan in 2026 and 5.26 billion yuan in 2027 [6][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.30 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][11].

Group 1 - The report highlights a trend of increasing credit risk in the convertible bond market over the past five years, with a significant rise in the number of downgrades from 7 in 2020 to 49 in 2024, while upgrades remain scarce [1][11][23] - There is a notable seasonal clustering in rating adjustments, particularly during Q1 and Q4, with Q1 2022 seeing a peak where 73% of downgrades occurred, indicating a concentration of risk exposure during financial disclosures [11][12] - Structural differentiation is evident across industries, with social services and textiles experiencing significantly higher downgrade ratios, while sectors like coal and steel show no downgrades, reflecting their cash flow stability [17][18] Group 2 - A comprehensive rating factor system is essential for predicting credit ratings, categorized into five main factors: conversion pressure, debt repayment pressure, profitability and operational efficiency, corporate governance, and market performance [2][28] - The conversion pressure factor indicates that indicators such as bond balance to underlying stock market value and recent stock price trends are positively correlated with rating downgrades, while conversion value shows a negative correlation [29][30] - The debt repayment pressure factor reveals that a higher debt-to-asset ratio correlates positively with downgrades, while metrics like EBITDA to interest-bearing debt show a negative correlation, indicating the importance of long-term repayment capacity [40][41] Group 3 - The profitability and operational efficiency factor assesses the issuer's ability to generate cash flow, with continuous losses and financial delisting risks showing a strong positive correlation with downgrades, while metrics like earnings per share exhibit a negative correlation [46][51] - Corporate governance factors, such as the type of audit opinion, significantly influence credit ratings, with non-standard audit opinions correlating positively with downgrades, indicating potential financial uncertainties [58][60] - Market performance factors reflect real-time investor sentiment towards the issuer's creditworthiness, with indicators like market price and earnings ratios showing significant correlations with rating changes [3][61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth with a projected revenue of CNY 235.78 billion and a net profit of CNY 55.17 billion for 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.41% and 20.22% respectively [2]. - The company continues to focus on a "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, which is anticipated to support its growth momentum [4]. - The product structure is improving, with the "Year Original" segment leading growth, accounting for 79.10% of revenue in 2024, up 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenues from "Year Original," "Gu Jing Gong Jiu," and "Huang He Lou" to be CNY 180.86 billion, CNY 22.41 billion, and CNY 25.38 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.31%, 11.17%, and 15.08% [2]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 79.68% in Q1 2025, with a slight decrease of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to increase by 0.54 percentage points to 25.47% [4]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow to CNY 259.9 billion, CNY 289.3 billion, and CNY 320.8 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of CNY 63.0 billion, CNY 72.1 billion, and CNY 81.0 billion [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has strengthened its market position in its home province while expanding its national presence, with a dealer network increasing by 448 to 5,089 dealers in 2024 [3]. - The company’s national coverage has reached over 70%, with 40% of its revenue coming from outside its home province [4]. - The company aims to capture the mid-to-high-end consumer segment while also expanding its market share in the mass liquor segment [4].