固定收益 | 固定收益定期 美债回落，油价大涨 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250615 海外市场复盘（6.9-6.13） 本周欧美主要股指多数收跌，波动率上升。周一周二，中美贸易会谈召开， 美方官员释放会谈顺利有成效的信号，推动美股上涨；周五以色列袭击伊 朗，全球股市下挫。 美元和美债收益率下行，周五反弹。本周前四天，由于美国 CPI 和 PPI 通 胀低于预期、失业金申请人数超预期上升，市场降息预期升温，美元下跌； 并且美国国债标售稳健，美债收益率下行。周五中东局势升级，油价大涨 令通胀担忧上升，美元和美债收益率上行。 商品方面，中东局势推动油价和黄金上涨。中东冲突升级，加剧对石油供 应中断的担忧，尤其是担忧伊朗可能会袭击霍尔木兹海峡等主要石油航运 路线，油价大涨。避险情绪上升，黄金上涨。 海外基本面高频跟踪 总体景气度：美国小幅回升，德国继续降温。美国每周经济指数小幅回升， 德国每周经济指数继续下降。美国纽约联储 Nowcast、亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 对美国二季度 GDP 的预测小幅上调。 就业：失业金领取人数高于预期。美国初请失业金 24.8 万人，预期 24 万 人，或与学年结束有关。 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 15 日 量化择时周报：仍处震荡上沿，维持中性仓位 仍处震荡上沿，维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250608)认为：短期市场宏观不确定性增加和指数在震荡格局 上沿位置的压制下，风险偏好较难快速提升，继续维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 全周表现先扬后抑，微跌 0.27%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票 的中证 2000 下跌 0.75%，中盘股中证 500 下跌 0.38%，沪深 300 下跌 0.25%， 上证 50 下跌 0.46%;上周中信一级行业中，表现较强行业包括有色金属、石 油石化，有色金属上涨 3.95%，食品饮料、计算机表现较弱，食品饮料下跌 4.42%。上周成交活跃度上，石油石化和非银金融资金流入明显。 市场处于震荡格局，核心观测是市场风险偏好的变化。宏观方面，中东战 争对全球的资本市场的风险偏好带来压力；同时本周即将迎来美联储议息 的关键窗口期，市场的风险偏好也会承压；之前预告的陆家嘴论坛的利好 也在本周迎来明牌，或将利好兑现；技术指标上，wind 全 A 指数虽然上周 小幅回落，但仍位于震荡格局的上沿，如果没有 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 央行呵护，资金再闯关 1、资金面聚焦：央行呵护，资金再闯关 本周资金面先紧后松，资金利率一度下破 1.4%的政策利率水平，国有大行 净融出规模行至年内高位，存单一二级收益率持稳。资金分层现象有所凸 显，但仍处偏低水平。 展望下周，资金面将迎来多重扰动，也一定程度增加对于银行负债端压力 的担忧，但整体或相对可控。一方面，本月第二次买断式逆回购将于月中 进行操作，月内净投放 2000 亿元，为二季度首次实现净投放，且这或与月 初的 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作、下旬开展的 MLF 操作将形成协同，分别 于月初、月中及月末时点进行呵护。后续也不排除这两类工具继续选择在 上述三个时点进行操作的可能，实现月内各阶段流动性的精准呵护，也有 利于引导市场形成较为稳定的预期。另一方面，5 月社融表现分化，外围 关税博弈也仍在持续，基本面磨底修复阶段仍需货币政策的保驾护航，央 行的呵护态度或仍在。 下周资金面关注因素：（1）逆回购到期 8582 亿元，规模小幅下行，MLF 回笼 1820 亿元；（2）政府债净缴款 1036 亿元，规模小幅回落，其中，国 债缴款规模较大；（3） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bank and other financial high - quality bottom - position convertible bonds are continuously shrinking, and medium - large bottom - position convertible bonds may benefit from the capital spill - over trend. It is recommended to select targets based on credit quality, remaining term, and clause games [1][11]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level in the long term, with a good risk - return ratio. Domestic economic fundamentals and capital flow may gradually resonate. For convertible bonds, be vigilant about valuation callback risks, focus on the game space of downward revisions and strong redemption risks, and pay attention to short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [14]. - Industries worthy of attention include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. After the Continuous Shrinking of Bottom - Position Convertible Bonds - This week, Nanyin Convertible Bond announced a strong redemption as expected. Since this year, 4 bank convertible bonds have announced early redemptions, and 1 has matured. As of June 13, the scale of bank convertible bonds has decreased to 1519.61 billion yuan, a decrease of about 39 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. There is still 5.7 billion yuan of Hangyin and Nanyin Convertible Bonds that will be converted or redeemed [1][9]. - In the future, 50 billion yuan of Pufa Convertible Bond will mature and delist. It is advisable to select convertible bonds based on credit quality, remaining term, and clause games, and pay attention to convertible bonds with a relatively large remaining scale and a remaining term of less than 2 years among those maturing in the non - downward - revision period in June [11]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - The market fluctuated this week, with an overall weekly decline. The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound drove a slight improvement in the May PMI. Domestic economic fundamentals and capital flow may gradually resonate [14]. - For convertible bonds, the issuance pressure is expected to be low. Be vigilant about valuation callback risks, focus on the game space of downward revisions and strong redemption risks, and pay attention to short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [14]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Declined, and Cyclical Sectors such as Metals Strengthened - This week, major equity market indices declined. 13 Shenwan industry indices rose, and 18 declined. Industries such as non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, while food and beverage, household appliances, and building materials led the losses [18][20]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the Premium Rate per 100 - Yuan Par Value Slightly Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The average daily trading volume increased to 69.298 billion yuan, with a total weekly trading volume of 346.489 billion yuan [23]. - In terms of industries, 11 industries rose, and 18 declined. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non - bank finance, and public utilities led the gains, while communication, media, and machinery and equipment led the losses [25]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five gainers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Jinji Convertible Bond, Haibo Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, and Zhite Convertible Bond; the top five losers were Zhengyu Convertible Bond, Huati Convertible Bond, Haomei Convertible Bond, Tianyang Convertible Bond, and Aofei Convertible Bond [26][28]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market decreased, and the premium rate increased. The premium rate per 100 - yuan par value decreased slightly and is above the 50% quantile since 2017 [35]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds and balanced convertible bonds declined significantly. The valuation of convertible bonds with a par value of 80 - 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan increased, while most other par - value convertible bonds' valuations decreased. The valuation of convertible bonds rated A+ and below decreased, while other ratings increased. The valuation of small - cap convertible bonds decreased, while other scale - graded convertible bonds increased [44]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom [44]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds rated AA+ and above and A and below rose, while others declined. Since 2023, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have performed steadily, and low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [54]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while other scale convertible bonds declined. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 13.98% return, medium - small - cap convertible bonds 14.10%, medium - cap convertible bonds 9.60%, and large - cap convertible bonds 10.31% [54]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary - Market Issuance Plans - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds. Two convertible bonds (Dianhua Convertible Bond and Anke Convertible Bond) announced plans to be issued, and one (Hengshuai Convertible Bond) has been issued but not yet listed. Six convertible bonds passed the first - level approval [4][59]. - Since the beginning of 2023 to June 13, 2025, there have been 90 convertible bonds in the pipeline, with a total scale of 145.842 billion yuan [60]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of June 14, 2025, 20 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, 1 proposed a downward revision, and 1 announced the result of a downward revision [64]. - Seven convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 3 announced no early redemptions, and 2 announced early redemptions [67][68]. - As of the end of this week, 3 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 33 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [70].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing low price fluctuations, with the average price of live pigs at 14.39 CNY/kg as of June 14, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The profitability for self-breeding is approximately 72 CNY per head, down by 53 CNY from the previous week. The price of piglets has reached a three-month low [1][15] - The pet industry is witnessing significant growth driven by consumption upgrades, with domestic brands rising strongly. For instance, Tmall's pet sales exceeded last year's first-day sales within 100 minutes, and 653 brands saw sales double year-on-year. The pet food export volume from January to April 2025 reached 110,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.17% [3][4][17][18] - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to uncertainties in breeding imports, particularly for white chickens, with a 40.66% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates from January to May 2025. The yellow chicken market is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand as supply tightens [5][20][22] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average price of live pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with self-breeding profitability at 72 CNY per head, indicating a significant drop in profitability [1][15] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight for slaughtered pigs, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors and rising temperatures [19] - The sector is expected to face losses due to strong supply and weak demand, with potential for capacity reduction [19] Pet Sector - The pet industry is experiencing a consumption upgrade, with significant sales growth on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, indicating a shift towards high-value products [3][17] - Pet food exports are growing, with a total export value of 3.26 billion CNY from January to April 2025, reflecting a robust market [4][18] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. [4][18] Poultry Sector - The white chicken breeding sector is facing a 40.66% decline in breeding stock updates due to import uncertainties, while the yellow chicken market is seeing a tightening supply [20][21] - The average price for yellow chickens has fluctuated, with a notable decrease in prices in certain regions [22] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that can capitalize on breeding opportunities and market recovery, such as Shengnong Development and Yisheng Co. [21][22] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving self-sufficiency in food security, with an emphasis on improving crop yields through advanced breeding strategies [24] - Key recommendations include seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, as well as agricultural resource companies [24] Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for companies like Haida Group, which is expected to see market share growth and sustained performance [25] - The animal health sector is shifting towards new products and markets, with a focus on pet health products and significant growth potential [26]

证券研究报告 2025年06月15日 行业报告 | 行业点评 机械设备 【全行业】 【春风动力】 【隆鑫通用】 【钱江摩托】 ✓ 风险提示：中大排量摩托车增速不及预期；禁限摩政策影响等；本数据为跟踪数据，不构成投资建议 摩托车行业2025年5月销售数据更新 作者： 分析师 朱晔 SAC执业证书编号：S1110522080001 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 ✓ 二轮燃油摩托：5月，行业总销量148.6万辆，同比+11.3%；出口109.0万辆，同比+20.6%；内销39.6万辆，同比-8.2%。 ✓ 250cc以上：5月，行业250cc以上销量10.1万辆，同比+31.1%；出口5.0万辆，同比+52.1%；内销5.1万辆，同比+15.4%。 ✓ 二轮燃油摩托：5月，春风燃油摩托销量2.8万辆，同比+13.4%；出口1.2万辆，同比+2.5%；内销1.7万辆，同比+22.7%； ✓ 250cc以上：5月，春风250cc以上销量2.2万辆，同比+48.1%；出口0.7万辆，同比+41.4 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 基金季报（T 期）披露有股票持仓的证监会行业配置信息，基金最近（T-1 期）半年报、年报会披露全部股票持仓，可得基金半年报、年报末非重仓 股持仓信息。假设基金非重仓股持仓在两期各行业下持股种类不变，仅持 股权重按比例变化，那么根据 T-1 期非重仓股持仓按比例放缩权重可得到 T 期非重仓股模拟持仓。 基金风格配置监控周报： 权益基金连续两周上调小盘股票仓位 公募基金风格监控 2025 年 06 月 15 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 基金季报中披露有基金前十大重仓股，同时企业季度报告中披露有企业的 前十大股东信息（主要使用上市公司 1、3 季度十大股东信息），结合这两 部分信息我们可以得到基金持仓更加详细的重仓股信息。因此模拟全部股 票持仓只需要估计基金剩余的非重仓持股明细。 韩乾 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110522100001 hanqian@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报：盈利、分红因子表现较好 -20250614》 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 55.24 CNY based on the current price of 36.93 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the therapeutic drug sector for over 20 years, focusing on infectious diseases, respiratory and critical care, autoimmune diseases, and neurological disorders. It has a rich pipeline of research and sales [1][14]. - The company’s key product, STSP-0601, has received breakthrough therapy designation and has submitted a conditional marketing application, indicating strong potential in the hemophilia treatment market [2][32]. - The company is experiencing a transitional phase with a projected revenue decline in 2024, but it is expected to enter an accelerated growth phase from 2025 onwards [4][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2002 in Beijing, the company specializes in innovative drugs across various therapeutic areas and has developed national class 1 new drugs [1][14]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with key executives possessing extensive research backgrounds [19][21]. Research and Development Pipeline - The company has multiple products in clinical trials, including STSP-0601 for hemophilia, STSA-1002 for ARDS, and BDB-001 for ANCA-associated vasculitis, all showing promising results [3][4][30]. - STSP-0601 has shown significant efficacy in clinical trials, with a high potential market due to the large number of hemophilia patients in China [2][47]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 3.36 billion CNY in 2025, with a gradual recovery in profitability projected by 2027 [4][5]. - The 2024 revenue is expected to be 3.25 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.81% decrease from the previous year, but the company is on track to reduce losses [25][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is well-positioned in the market with its innovative drug pipeline and has received recognition for its breakthrough therapies, enhancing its competitive edge [2][4]. - The focus on developing high-quality, accessible treatments for chronic conditions like hemophilia is expected to drive future growth [32][34].

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, waiting for growth to manifest, and then selling for a multiplier effect, achieving returns from both earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][8] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 14.65%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 14.40% [11] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on stocks that exceed earnings expectations and show a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after earnings announcements [13] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 28.69%, with an annualized excess return of 27.07% over the benchmark [16] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 18.68%, outperforming the benchmark index by 18.42% [16] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, focusing on stocks with low price-to-book (PB) ratios and high return on equity (ROE) [18] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 14.31% relative to the CSI 300 index [22] - The strategy's performance this week yielded an excess return of 0.95% [22]

Group 1 - The report highlights the successful completion of the expansion and issuance of the Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, marking the first expansion of a rental housing REIT in China [1][7]. - As of June 13, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 174.4 billion, with 66 REITs issued [8]. - The overall REITs market showed positive performance, with the CSI REITs total return index increasing by 0.69% during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025 [2][16]. Group 2 - The liquidity of the REITs market improved, with a total trading volume of 548 million yuan, reflecting a 10.1% increase week-on-week [3][36]. - The trading volume for different categories of REITs showed significant variations, with the largest category being transportation infrastructure, accounting for 30.0% of the total trading volume [3][36]. - The report indicates that the trading volume for affordable rental housing REITs increased by 63.4% week-on-week, highlighting strong investor interest in this segment [3][36]. Group 3 - The report provides a comparative analysis of various asset classes, showing that the REITs total index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points during the same week [2][16]. - The performance of individual REITs was notable, with Huaxia Fund's Huayuan Youchao REIT leading with a gain of 4.32% [2][16]. - The report also includes historical performance data, indicating that the REITs total index has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.43% [26].