Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Expressway (600350) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a revenue of 28.494 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.07% to 3.196 billion yuan [2][3] - The toll revenue slightly declined by 5.95% to 9.928 billion yuan, despite a 3.23% increase in traffic volume to 186.9 million vehicles [3] - The core road asset expansion is nearing completion, which is expected to enhance traffic volume and fee rates, potentially leading to an upward shift in profit margins [5][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.593 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.16% year-on-year, with a net profit of 681 million yuan, an increase of 8.08% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining the same level as in 2023, with a total distribution of 2.038 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63.76% [6][7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.346 billion yuan, 3.630 billion yuan, and 3.871 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.1, 13.9, and 13.1 [8] Segment Analysis - Toll revenue from the road and bridge operations was 9.928 billion yuan, with a notable decline in revenue from the Jiqing Expressway, which was approximately 3.603 billion yuan, down 12.12% year-on-year [3] - Capital operations showed a strong performance, with Qilu Expressway generating 7.022 billion yuan in revenue, up 25.19%, while the Rail Transit Group and Information Group also reported revenue increases [3] - The cost structure of toll roads indicates a depreciation and amortization cost of approximately 2.899 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.67%, while maintenance costs rose by 22.44% to 882 million yuan [4]

行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：成本 与需求双弱，炼化产品价格价差有所下跌 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 本期内容提要： 证券研究报告 ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 4 月 4 日当周，国内重点大炼化 项目价差为 2565.13 元/吨，环比变化+288.88 元/吨（+12.69%）；国外 重点大炼化项目价差为 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utilities industry is "Positive" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After multiple rounds of power supply - demand contradictions in China, the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value re - evaluation. Coal - fired power's peak - shaving value is prominent, and with the advancement of power market reform, electricity prices are likely to rise slightly. The cost of coal - fired power enterprises is expected to be controllable. The performance of power operators is expected to improve significantly. For the natural gas industry, with the decline of upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic consumption, the city - gas business may achieve stable gross margins and high growth in gas sales volume [4][83][84] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Performance - As of April 3, the utilities sector rose 2.5% this week, outperforming the market. The power sector rose 2.81%, while the gas sector fell 0.04%. Among sub - sectors, the thermal power generation sector rose 3.61%, the hydropower generation sector rose 2.92%, the nuclear power generation rose 1.16%, the thermal service rose 1.71%, the comprehensive power service rose 3.64%, and the photovoltaic power generation rose 0.74% [11][13] 3.2 Power Industry Data Tracking 3.2.1 Thermal Coal Prices - In April, the annual long - term contract price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) was 667 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton. As of April 3, the market price of Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was flat week - on - week. Overseas, the Newcastle NEWC5500 thermal coal FOB spot price decreased week - on - week, while the ARA6000 thermal coal spot price increased. The Newcastle NEWC index price rose week - on - week. The Indonesian coal (Q5500) storage pick - up price at Guangzhou Port decreased, and the Australian coal (Q5500) price increased [21][23] 3.2.2 Thermal Coal Inventory and Power Plant Daily Consumption - As of April 3, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 300,000 tons week - on - week. As of April 2, the coal inventory of 17 inland provinces decreased by 1.31% week - on - week, and the daily consumption increased by 23.57%. The available days decreased by 5.5 days. The coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces increased by 1.17% week - on - week, the daily consumption increased by 3.22%, and the available days decreased by 0.4 days [28][30] 3.2.3 Hydropower Inflow - As of April 3, the Three Gorges outflow was 9,350 cubic meters per second, an increase of 38.72% year - on - year and a decrease of 10.10% week - on - week [46] 3.2.4 Key Power Market Transaction Electricity Prices - As of March 29, the weekly average price of the Guangdong power day - ahead spot market increased by 12.23% week - on - week and decreased by 23.7% year - on - year. The weekly average price of the real - time spot market increased by 18.40% week - on - week and decreased by 23.4% year - on - year. As of March 14, the weekly average price of the Shanxi power day - ahead spot market decreased by 28.79% week - on - week and increased by 7.4% year - on - year. The real - time spot market price decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of April 4, the weekly average price of the Shandong power day - ahead spot market decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, and the real - time spot market price also decreased [47][56][57] 3.3 Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic and International Natural Gas Prices - As of April 3, the national index of LNG ex - factory prices at the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center increased year - on - year and week - on - week. International natural gas prices in three major markets decreased week - on - week. The European TTF spot price, the US HH spot price, and the Chinese DES spot price all declined [53][58] 3.3.2 EU Natural Gas Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In the 12th week of 2025, the EU's natural gas supply decreased year - on - year and week - on - week. The LNG supply decreased week - on - week, and the imported pipeline gas decreased year - on - year and week - on - week. The EU's natural gas inventory decreased week - on - week. The estimated consumption increased year - on - year and week - on - week [63][70][72] 3.3.3 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand - From January to February 2025, the domestic natural gas apparent consumption decreased year - on - year. In February 2025, the domestic natural gas production increased year - on - year, the LNG import volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the PNG import volume increased year - on - year and month - on - month [74][75] 3.4 This Week's Industry News - For the power industry, the CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", emphasizing the deepening of electricity price marketization reform. The National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early - Warning Center announced the new energy grid - connected consumption situation in February 2025. For the natural gas industry, the National Development and Reform Commission reported that the national natural gas apparent consumption from January to February 2025 decreased by 3.4% year - on - year [78][79] 3.5 This Week's Important Announcements - China National Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. announced its power generation in the first quarter of 2025. Longyuan Power Group Co., Ltd. released its 2024 annual report. Yue Dian Power A released its 2024 annual report. Gansu Energy released its 2024 annual report. Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. released its 2024 annual report [80][81][82] 3.6 Investment Recommendations and Valuation Tables - For the power sector, it is recommended to focus on national coal - fired power leaders, regional leaders in power - supply - tight areas, hydropower operators, coal - fired power equipment manufacturers, and flexibility - transformation technology companies. For the natural gas sector, companies such as ENN Energy and Guanghui Energy are expected to benefit [4][83][84]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：特朗普关税大棒落地 [Table_Title，油价 ] 走跌 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2025 年 4 月 4 日当周，油价整体下跌。本周，前 半周，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊表示，如果美国就其总统特朗普的"轰 炸威胁"采取行动，那么"美国将受到强烈打击"，地缘风险推动油 价上行；后半周，特朗普签 ...

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 501.9 billion yuan, with a significant tightening observed at the beginning of the week[3] - The DR007 rate fell to approximately 1.7%, marking the lowest level since mid-January 2025[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.28 trillion yuan to 6.08 trillion yuan compared to last week[3] Institutional Behavior - Large banks' net financing remained stable above 3.1 trillion yuan, while joint-stock banks showed fluctuations until a decline on Thursday[3] - Non-bank institutions' rigid financing increased, but money market fund financing hit a year-to-date low[3] - The adjusted funding gap index dropped to 1,103 on Thursday, down from 2,452 the previous week[3] Government Debt Issuance - The overall government debt payment scale is expected to decrease to 1 billion yuan next week, with a net repayment scale dropping from 546.1 billion yuan to -390.6 billion yuan[21] - The total issuance of new general bonds reached 279.1 billion yuan, while new special bonds amounted to 960.2 billion yuan this week[21] - The estimated net financing scale for government bonds in April is approximately 860 billion yuan, a decrease of about 610 billion yuan compared to March[21] Future Outlook - The central bank may reassess the economic environment due to escalating global trade tensions, potentially accelerating the decline in funding rates[19] - The possibility of a reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates may arise if external pressures on the equity market or foreign demand increase[19] - Next week, only three discount treasury payments are expected, with a significant repayment on Wednesday reaching 350.3 billion yuan[21]

完善价格治理机制，水务、垃圾焚烧等细分领域有望受益 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 15666646523.tcy | 证券研究报告 | | --- | | 行业研究——周报 | | [Table_ReportType] | | 行业周报 | | [Table_StockAndRank] | | 环保 | | 投资评级 看好 | | 上次评级 看好 | | [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500518070001 | | 联系电话：010-83326712 | | 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com | | 环保联席首席分析师 郭雪 | | 执业编号：S1500525030002 | | 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com | | 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524100001 | | 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com | | 化工行业： | | 信达证券股份有限公司 | CINDA SECURITIES ...

Macro Perspective - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, with a 94.4% probability of a cut in June 2025 and 90% in July 2025, leading to a downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields[4] - Domestic M2 growth year-on-year is stable at 7.0%, with the M1-M2 differential at -6.9%, indicating a potential bearish outlook for excess returns in dividend stocks[4] Valuation Metrics - The absolute PETTM for the CSI Dividend Index is at the 99.20th percentile over the past three years, up from 93.32% a month ago, suggesting a high valuation level[4] - The relative PETTM is at the 80.64th percentile, indicating a moderately high relative valuation compared to the broader market[4] Price and Volume Analysis - 59.60% of the CSI Dividend Index component stocks are above their six-month moving average, an increase from 55.04% a month ago, indicating a potential for future absolute returns of 7.12%[4] - The absolute trading volume is at the 73.70th percentile over the past three years, showing a recovery in trading activity, with an estimated future absolute return of 6.07%[4] Fund Flows - The exposure of equity mutual funds to dividend strategies has increased, with the latest exposure at 0.45, the highest since 2019[4] - Dividend ETFs saw a net inflow of 3.18 billion yuan this week, although the total net inflow over the past month is -3.96 billion yuan[4] Summary and Outlook - The macro model suggests that dividend strategies may underperform growth strategies in the near term, but potential improvements in monetary and fiscal policies could enhance M2 and M1-M2 differential metrics[4] - The high absolute and relative PE ratios indicate caution, while the recent increase in trading volume and fund flows suggests a potential for short-term rebounds in dividend stocks[4]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 爱玛科技(603529) 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 爱玛科技：一季度稳健增长，产品结构改善 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 05 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 年业绩快报、2025 年一季度业绩预告。2024 年公司 实现收入 216.06 亿元（同比+2.7%），归母净利 19.88 亿元（同比+5.7%）， 扣非净利 17.92 亿元（yoy +1.5%）；24Q4 实现收入 41.42 亿元（同比 +15.7%），归母净利 4.34 亿元（同比+34.2%），扣非净利 3.45 亿元（同比 +8.7%）；公司预计 25Q1 实现归母净利 6.05 亿元（同比+25.1%），扣非净 利 5.93 亿元（同比+31.6%）。 24 年销售表现彰显龙头韧性。我们预计公司 24 年实现两轮车 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing structural adjustments, with small-cap indices leading the decline; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell by 1.19% and 1.04% respectively this week[2] - The VIX index has shown a mild increase, indicating rising risk aversion, while the overall market sentiment remains optimistic[2] Derivatives Market Insights - The SKEW for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 remains stable within the historical 35-55% range, suggesting an overall optimistic market sentiment[4] - Conversely, the near-term SKEW for CSI 500 is above the 80% threshold, indicating heightened expectations for significant downside risks in the short term[4] Dividend Forecasts - For the year ahead, the predicted dividend points for CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 are 80.96, 80.99, 65.01, and 64.64 respectively[4] - The CSI 500 is expected to have no dividends in the current contract but forecasts dividends of 4.93, 47.11, and 80.54 in subsequent contracts[9] Risk Factors - The results presented are based on historical data and modeling, which may be subject to failure risks due to market volatility uncertainties[5]

以全国碳排放权交易市场为主体，完善碳定价机制 [Table_Industry] ESG 周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 05 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] ESG 投资评级 —— 上次评级 —— [Table_Author] [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 以全国碳排放权交易市场为主体，完善碳定价机制 [Table_ReportDate] 2 ...