-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 10 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.05.08) ■成交金额（合计/亿元) ●换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-11 03-14 04-15 02-10 8T 70 ET 70 02-26 03-03 03-06 03-19 03-24 03-27 04-07 04-10 04-18 04-23 04-28 05-06 01-02 01-15 02-05 02-21 04-01 01-23 01- 01 可证券|CGS 中国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.05.08) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 北交所日 ...

Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) and A-shares (A股) shows significant fluctuations, with the North Exchange experiencing a maximum increase of 29.99% for the top-performing stock on May 8, 2025[9] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached a total of 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of May 8, 2025[7] Stock Highlights - The top ten stocks by increase on May 8, 2025, had an average market capitalization of 19.06 billion CNY, with the highest PE ratio recorded at 570.74 for Tongyi Aerospace (通易航天) despite a negative net profit[9] - Conversely, the bottom ten stocks by decrease had an average market capitalization of 32.48 billion CNY, with the largest drop of -7.57% for Qiule Seed Industry (秋乐种业)[10] Valuation Insights - The PE ratio for the North Exchange companies varies significantly across industries, indicating diverse valuation levels, with some sectors like electronics showing extremely high PE ratios, such as 2,690.19 for Huiwei Intelligent (慧为智能)[11] - The valuation trends for the North Exchange compared to the Sci-Tech Board and Growth Enterprise Market indicate a competitive landscape, with the North Exchange showing a steady increase in valuation metrics[12] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and overall market volatility[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Bank (stock code: 002948) [1] Core Views - Qingdao Bank shows steady improvement in revenue growth and a rebound in net interest margin, with a revenue increase of 8.22% year-on-year in 2024 and a net profit growth of 20.16% [4] - The bank's strategy focuses on structural adjustments, enhancing customer base, optimizing collaboration, and improving capabilities, which supports its stable expansion and solid asset quality [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Qingdao Bank's revenue grew by 8.22% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 20.16%. The weighted average ROE was 11.51%, up by 0.8 percentage points [4] - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit grew by 8.5% and 44.53% year-on-year, respectively, driven by high growth in net interest income and other non-interest income [4] - In Q1 2025, revenue rose by 9.69% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 16.42% [4] Net Interest Income and Margin - In 2024, net interest income increased by 6.38% year-on-year, with a notable growth of 11.97% in Q1 2025. The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.73%, down by 10 basis points year-on-year, but showed a rebound in Q1 2025 due to effective cost optimization [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans grew by 13.53% year-on-year in 2024, with corporate loans contributing significantly at 18.71% growth. Retail loan growth showed signs of recovery, with a 1.56% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the beginning of the year [4] - Total deposits increased by 12.13% year-on-year in 2024, with personal deposits growing by 16.64% [4] Non-Interest Income and Investment Gains - Non-interest income rose by 13.58% year-on-year in 2024, although intermediary income faced pressure, declining by 6.39% [4] - Investment income saw significant growth, with increases of 33.28% in 2024 and 188.64% in Q1 2025 [4] Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was 1.14% at the end of 2024, down by 4 basis points year-on-year, while the coverage ratio improved to 251.49% [4] - Retail loan risks increased slightly, with the non-performing loan ratio rising to 2.02% [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 8.22% for 2024 and 8.19% for 2025, with net profit growth rates of 20.16% and 15.10% respectively [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank (stock code: 600926) [1] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank continues to show strong profit growth, with a 2024 revenue increase of 9.61% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 18.07% year-on-year. The bank's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16%, reflecting a 0.43 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530.07% as of March 2025, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - The bank's strategy focuses on expanding its presence in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a clear plan to strengthen corporate finance and enhance retail and small micro-business services [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's revenue reached approximately 38.38 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 9.61% for 2025 [38] - The net interest income for 2024 was approximately 24.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.37% [39] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at 16.98 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 18.07% [38] Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the bank's NPL ratio was 0.76%, with a stable level of attention loans at 0.55% [3] - The bank's retail loan risk has slightly increased, with an NPL ratio of 0.77% for retail loans [3] Growth Strategy - The bank is actively expanding in the Yangtze River Delta, leveraging its geographical advantages to enhance its market position [3] - The bank's strategic plan includes strengthening corporate finance and expanding retail and small micro-business services as key growth drivers [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 19.54 yuan, with corresponding price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 0.76X for 2025, 0.65X for 2026, and 0.55X for 2027 [3][38]

Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate is projected to be 1.7% in 2024, with a slight increase to 1.83% in 2025[11] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is estimated at 2.38%[11] - The GDP growth rate for 2023 is expected to be around 2.30%[11] Market Trends - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a potential decline of 4.0% in Q1 2024[11] - Inflation rates are projected to stabilize around 2.0% in the coming quarters[11] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at approximately 4.0%[11] Financial Projections - The interest rate is expected to rise gradually, reaching around 5.6% by the end of 2024[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase by 3.0% in 2024[15] - The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth strategies[12]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May FOMC meeting, with limited incremental information provided[2] - The Fed's current stance suggests that rate cuts may not occur in the first half of the year, as they remain data-dependent[2] - The Fed is likely to implement two to three rate cuts in the second half of the year, with the probability of a July cut decreasing[2][4] Inflation and Economic Concerns - The Fed emphasizes the risk of stagflation, with concerns about rising inflation and potential increases in unemployment[5] - Internal divisions within the Fed exist regarding the approach to inflation, with some officials advocating for preemptive rate cuts if hard data deteriorates significantly[5][10] - The inflation target for 2025 is projected to remain between 3.0%-3.5%, which does not hinder the possibility of rate cuts[22] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations indicate three potential rate cuts by 2025, with the first cut anticipated in July[20] - U.S. stock indices rose following the meeting, while U.S. Treasury yields declined, reflecting market relief at the Fed's cautious approach[20] - The dollar index increased to 99.9006, indicating market stability despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation[20] Economic Data and Labor Market - The labor market remains stable, but there are risks of deterioration that could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts[14][18] - The Fed's reliance on hard data suggests that any significant economic downturn may not be observed until mid-year or later[12][22] - The ongoing tariff negotiations and fiscal policies are deemed more critical in the short term than immediate Fed actions[15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the company, indicating that the expected performance is within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 77.77 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.22%, and is expected to reach 113.39 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 11.31% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 5.98 billion yuan in 2024 to 12.70 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.76% [2][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.43% in 2024 to 29.18% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2][8]. Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from 77.77 billion yuan in 2024 to 113.39 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 6.22%, 14.38%, 14.52%, and 11.31% for the respective years [2][8]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 6.09 billion yuan in 2024 to 12.94 billion yuan in 2027, with profit growth rates of 31.98%, 39.72%, 25.97%, and 20.76% [2][8]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 10.08 billion yuan in 2024 to 18.80 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 152.15 billion yuan in 2024 to 184.22 billion yuan in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 79.14 billion yuan to 92.39 billion yuan over the same period [7]. - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 71.95 billion yuan in 2024 to 90.18 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is projected to be 14.81 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 17.12 billion yuan by 2027 [7]. - The net increase in cash is expected to be 3.43 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual decrease to 4.33 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 27.91 in 2024 to 13.13 in 2027, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.30% in 2024 to 14.08% in 2027, reflecting better profitability [8].

每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上，近年来，每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report forecasts the May convertible bond strategy, suggesting a focus on performance as the foundation, with opportunities in oversold targets and terms as the driving forces. It anticipates the end of the phased impact of tariff negatives and advocates for left - side oversold layout under monetary easing. The recommended convertible bond portfolio for May includes Wenshan Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, etc. [3][46] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 April Convertible Bond Market Review 3.1.1 Convertible Bond Market Review: Resilient Against the Underlying Stocks Amid Tariff Games, with Declining Parity but Rising Valuation - In April, the equity market fell 3.2%, and the convertible bond market followed with a 1.3% decline. The convertible bond ETF scale contracted 5.0% to 41.3 billion yuan. The trading activity of the equity - biased market declined, and the convertible bond parity dropped 7.4% to 86.9 yuan, while the 100 - yuan parity premium rate (MA5) rose 2.8pp to 25.3% [3][5][8] 3.1.2 Industry and Style: Media and Agriculture Led the Gains in April, with Medium - priced, Small - cap, and High - rated Styles Outperforming - In April, most industries' convertible bonds declined. Media (2.8%) and agriculture (1.9%) led the gains, while coal (-3.9%) and power equipment (-3.2%) had the largest declines. In terms of style, medium - priced, small - cap, and high - rated convertible bonds were more advantageous [22][25][29] 3.2 May Convertible Bond Market and Strategy Outlook 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Outlook: The End of the Phased Impact of Tariff Negatives, Left - side Oversold Layout Under Monetary Easing - In 2024, the performance of convertible bond underlying stocks was generally under pressure, but there was marginal improvement in Q1 2025. Targets with overseas revenue accounting for over 20% were still 3% more oversold than the industry average in April and may have room for repair. About 32% of convertible bonds that entered the call - back progress and 45% that triggered the call - back clause since last year chose to implement the call - back. The central bank announced a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP interest rate cut on May 7 [35][41][45] 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Strategy Outlook: Performance as the Foundation, Opportunities in Oversold Targets and Terms as the Driving Forces - The strategy combines a 40% base position of broad - based large - cap targets, 30% for oversold repair, and 30% for call - back clause opportunities. The recommended convertible bond portfolio for May includes Wenshan Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, etc. [46][47] 3.3 Quantitative Strategies: Medium - volatility Strategies Outperformed, High - volatility Strategies Underperformed 3.3.1 Low - volatility Strategy: Low - price Enhancement Strategy - The strategy uses the low - price factor and relaxed the overseas revenue ratio constraint after April 22. The performance from April 1 - 30 was 0.01%, outperforming the benchmark by 1.32%. The current holdings and changes compared to the previous period are also provided [52][53][57] 3.3.2 Medium - volatility Strategy: Improved Dual - low Strategy - The strategy selects convertible bonds with relatively low prices and conversion premium rates. The performance in April was 1.28%, outperforming the benchmark by 2.59%. The current holdings and changes are presented [59][62][63] 3.3.3 High - volatility Strategy: High - price and High - elasticity Strategy - The strategy selects high - price and low - premium convertible bonds and balances industry allocation. The performance in April was - 2.20%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.89%. The current holdings and changes are detailed [65][66][70] 3.4 Primary Market Tracking 3.4.1 May Primary Market Issuance - As of May 5, there were no announced convertible bonds pending listing or issuance in May. Convertible bonds listed in April included Zhengfan Convertible Bond, Haohan Convertible Bond, etc. The issuance process of convertible bonds and the list of recently fast - tracked convertible bonds are also provided [72][73][75]

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[2] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to guide the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downwards, aiming to reduce financing costs for the real economy[5] - The PBOC increased the quota for technology innovation re-loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and lowered the interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%[18] Real Estate Sector Support - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, saving residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments[15] - Policies focus on stimulating demand and alleviating risks in the real estate sector, promoting a shift towards a new development model[17] Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC increased the quota for re-loans supporting agriculture and small enterprises by 300 billion yuan, bringing the total to 3 trillion yuan[23] - A comprehensive policy package is being developed to support financing for small and private enterprises, enhancing their operational vitality[23] Capital Market Support Policies - The PBOC will optimize two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging a total quota of 800 billion yuan for securities and stock repurchase[30] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is revising regulations to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the role of capital markets in resource allocation[40] A-Share Market Outlook - As of May 7, the A-share index has increased by 0.50% year-to-date, with the overall market showing resilience despite external pressures[47] - The A-share index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 18.78, indicating it is at a historical median level, while the price-to-book ratio is at 1.53, suggesting relatively low valuations compared to global markets[47] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include uncertainty regarding domestic policy effectiveness, geopolitical disturbances, and market sentiment instability[54]