Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value amidst supportive macroeconomic policies [29]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, which aims to lower the overall financing costs in society. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on economic conditions [7][8]. - Financial supply-side reforms are deepening, with a focus on optimizing structural monetary policy tools for key sectors such as technology and consumption. This includes enhancing support for small and medium-sized enterprises and improving the financing environment for the real estate market [8][9]. - The PBOC plans to introduce specific financial support measures to boost consumption, which will likely lead to increased credit supply in consumer-related sectors and lower financing costs for consumers and businesses [9][10]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The PBOC's first-quarter monetary policy meeting highlighted the need for a continued loose monetary stance to guide down the comprehensive financing costs in society. The meeting also indicated a potential for further reserve requirement ratio cuts in the first half of the year [7][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index declining by 2.29%, while the banking sector only fell by 0.18%. Notable individual bank performances included Chongqing Bank (+8.62%) and Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank (+3.36%) [5][11]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of March 21, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.65, indicating a 40.99% discount compared to the overall A-share market's PB ratio of 1.61. The sector's dividend yield is 6.49%, ranking second among all industries [21][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector will benefit from increased credit supply and improved asset quality due to supportive macroeconomic factors. Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [29][30].

Macro Insights - The report indicates that the bond market is unlikely to experience significant annual adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, unless a strong economic recovery occurs in China [5] - The report highlights three narratives that may be tested in 2025: the potential for special bond issuance to exceed expectations, better-than-expected consumer recovery driven by policy stimulus, and breakthroughs in Deepseek technology leading to a new round of capital expenditure [5] - The analysis of fiscal data for January-February 2025 reveals a significant divergence in revenue growth, particularly a -3.9% decline in tax revenue, contrasting with strong fiscal expenditure growth, indicating a strong desire for fiscal stability [7][8] Mechanical Industry - The mechanical equipment index rose by 5.46%, with excavator sales in February 2025 exceeding expectations, showing a 52.8% year-on-year increase [18] - The report suggests focusing on the infrastructure and real estate chain driven by policy support, recommending investments in engineering machinery and urban rail signaling systems [20] - The development of humanoid robots is highlighted, with government support for AI and robotics, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [19] Food and Beverage Industry - The report notes that high-end liquor companies have maintained stable pricing due to rational inventory control, with a rebound in demand expected for lower-priced liquor segments during holiday seasons [22][23] - The feedback from the spring sugar and liquor fair indicates a shift in operational strategies among mid-tier liquor companies, focusing on regional market penetration and product diversification [23][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of direct control over terminal sales for liquor manufacturers, with companies increasing resources for consumer engagement to boost sales performance [24] Electronics Industry - The launch of Xiaomi's new smart audio glasses marks a significant advancement in the smart eyewear market, with a focus on AI integration as a core competitive advantage [28][30] - The report predicts rapid growth in the smart eyewear market, with a projected 113.8% year-on-year increase in shipments in China for 2025, driven by the integration of AI functionalities [30][31] - The report suggests monitoring companies within the AR and AI eyewear supply chain as investment opportunities [31]

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, marking a departure from its previous policy rate identity[3] - The MLF net injection of CNY 63 billion this month signifies a transition from net withdrawal to net injection, indicating a crucial policy signal for maintaining market liquidity[4] - The strength of the monetary easing signal is ranked as follows: open market operations buying government bonds > reserve requirement ratio cuts > MLF net injection[4] Market Conditions - Liquidity has passed its most tense moments, but substantial easing is expected to arrive in Q2 2025[7] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, with a low probability of annual-level adjustments unless a strong economic recovery occurs[29] - The nominal GDP growth rate for China in 2025 is forecasted at 4.9%, with CPI and PPI expected to rise modestly to 0.9% and -0.2% respectively by year-end[40] Economic Narratives - Three narratives are anticipated to be tested in 2025: 1. The scale and effectiveness of special bonds for land reserves exceed expectations, leading to a strong rebound in real estate[33] 2. Policy stimuli drive consumer recovery better than expected, although consumer willingness remains a slow variable[34] 3. Breakthroughs in Deepseek technology spur a new round of capital expenditure, boosting economic growth[34] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential misinterpretation of policies, unexpected central bank actions, and government bond issuance falling short of expectations[48] - The adjustment risks in the bond market have not been eliminated, and a shift in monetary policy priorities or market risk preferences is necessary for risk alleviation[43]

Market Performance - The average turnover rate for the North Exchange reached 16.0% as of March 25, 2025[7] - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange was approximately 600 billion CNY[7] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for companies listed on the North Exchange varies significantly by industry, with some sectors showing PE ratios above 90[12] Stock Performance - The top-performing stock, 常辅股份, saw a daily increase of 29.97% with a market capitalization of 17.64 billion CNY[8] - The worst-performing stock, 克莱特, experienced a decline of 14.39% with a market capitalization of 38.89 billion CNY[9] - The average daily price change for the North Exchange was 14% compared to the A-share market's average of 10%[6] Risks and Considerations - There are risks associated with lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, and increased market competition[15] - Market volatility remains a significant concern for investors, impacting overall market sentiment and investment strategies[15]

Key Insights - The report highlights three main investment themes in the Hong Kong stock market for 2025: the improvement of consumer sector performance due to domestic demand policies, strong performance expectations in the technology sector supported by policy and industry trends, and the attractiveness of high dividend strategies, particularly from state-owned enterprises [5][2][4] Consumer Sector - Gree Electric Appliances is experiencing a turnaround with a low valuation and high dividend yield, having a dividend payout ratio of 102%, 72%, 46%, and 45% from 2020 to 2023, and a significant reduction in share capital by 6.9% since early 2020 [17][20] - China Resources Beverage has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a long-term trend of profit enhancement and a special dividend proposed, despite short-term competition in the packaged water sector [22] Technology Sector - The demand for computing power is increasing, with significant advancements in data center power supply moving towards 800V HVDC systems and the importance of BBU and LIC supercapacitors continuing to rise [7][8] - NVIDIA's GTC 2025 conference emphasized the growing importance of inference computing power, with expectations for a substantial increase in demand driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing [11][12][15] Food and Beverage Sector - Golden Dragon Fish reported a stable increase in kitchen food sales, with a notable improvement in Q4 performance, despite a slight decline in overall revenue for 2024 [26][28] - The company has a comprehensive brand matrix and a robust distribution network, which, combined with policies aimed at boosting consumption, are expected to support revenue growth [28] Mining Sector - Zijin Mining's revenue for 2024 reached 303.6 billion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, with a significant rise in net profit by 51.8% [31][32] - The company is on track to achieve ambitious production targets for copper, gold, and zinc, with ongoing projects expected to enhance production capacity significantly [33][36]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Analysis - Fiscal revenue growth in January-February 2025 was -3.9%, a decline from the previous year's -3.4% growth rate[7] - Corporate income tax revenue was 911.3 billion CNY, down 1.057 billion CNY year-on-year, primarily due to one-time profit remittances from central financial enterprises[8] - Non-tax revenue maintained an 11% growth rate, lower than the previous year's 25.4%, attributed to financial enterprise dividends and local asset management efforts[17] Group 2: Economic and Taxation Insights - Tax revenue is more closely related to corporate and individual income rather than direct economic growth, indicating a lag in income realization despite positive economic indicators[8] - The value-added tax (VAT) growth returned to a normal level at 1.1%, recovering from -3.8% in the previous year, influenced by previous tax refund policies[20] - Personal income tax saw a significant increase of 26.7%, rebounding from -1.7% due to a low base effect and the timing of year-end bonuses[27] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Total public budget expenditure reached 45,096 billion CNY, growing by 3.4%, with central government expenditure increasing by 8.6% compared to a 2.7% rise in local government spending[37] - The expenditure structure shifted towards education, social security, and technology, with education and technology spending growing by 7.8% and 10.5% respectively[41] - Infrastructure-related expenditures turned negative at -5.6%, contrasting with the previous year's 6.4% growth, indicating a shift in fiscal priorities[41] Group 4: Land and Fund Revenue Challenges - Government fund budget revenue fell by 10.7% to 6,381 billion CNY, with land use rights revenue declining by 15.7%[46] - Central government fund expenditure increased by 74.2%, while local government fund expenditure decreased by 0.6%, reflecting a front-loaded fiscal strategy[48]

- The report highlights the performance of index-enhanced funds, with the CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds achieving the highest weekly excess return median of 0.96%, followed by CSI 500 at 0.88%, and CSI 300 at 0.44%[2][3][4] - The CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds showed a quarterly excess return median of 1.04%, while CSI 500 funds had 0.33%, and CSI 300 funds achieved 0.86%[3][4][5] - Absolute return (hedge) funds recorded a weekly return median of 0.27%, while other active quantitative funds had a negative weekly return median of -1.39%[6][7] - Multi-factor funds demonstrated a weekly return median of -1.41%, with a quarterly return median of 6.99%, and an annual return median of 6.99%[17][20] - Big data-driven active investment funds had a weekly return median of -1.37%, a quarterly return median of 5.95%, and an annual return median of 5.95%[18][20]

2025年3月25日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 24 日财政部公布《2024 年中国财政政策执行 情况报告》 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 策略：港股市场 2025年以来行情拆解。中长期来看，港股市场配置价值较高 的三大主线分别是：第一，在国内扩内需、稳消费等政策刺激下,消费行业业 绩有望继续改善,从而促进当前估值水平处于历史中低水平的消费股上涨。第 二,科技政策支持与产业趋势将迎来共振,相关公司业绩改善预期较强,科技 板块有望持续上涨。第三,港股高股息策略仍具备吸引力,尤其是积极进行市 值管理的央企高股息标的。同时,高股息标的可以为投资者提供较为稳定的回 报,是较好的避险资产。 电新:算力需求旺盛,供电、液冷及 CPO 持续升级——英伟达 2025 GTC 大 0 会解读。数据中心供电向 800V HVDC 发展，BBU 及 LIC 超级电容重要性持 续增加。液冷大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 178.81 billion yuan, reversing a loss of 42.63 billion yuan in the previous year [5] - The company plans to slaughter between 72 million to 78 million pigs in 2025, with a total of 71.6 million pigs slaughtered in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [5] - The company has improved its gross profit margin significantly, with a comprehensive gross margin of 19.05% in 2024, up by 15.94 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company has established a nationwide pork sales network, with 70 service stations across 20 provincial-level administrative regions [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024 to 1465.04 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 6.20% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 178.81 billion yuan in 2024 to 189.46 billion yuan in 2025, a growth rate of 5.95% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.47 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 times [6] Operational Highlights - The company’s total pig slaughtering volume in 2024 was 12.52 million heads, with a revenue contribution from slaughtering and meat products of 24.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.03% [5] - The company has achieved a monthly profit in its slaughtering business as of December 2024 [5] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1876.49 billion yuan in 2024 to 2823.87 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to improve to 19.86% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 13.69% [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 21.53% in 2025 [9] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 58.68% by the end of 2024 [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - Consumption is a core engine of the Chinese economy, contributing significantly to economic growth and stability, with potential for improvement in consumer spending habits [2][3] - The collaboration between China and ASEAN in the digital economy, particularly in AI, is expected to create a new paradigm for economic cooperation and innovation [7][9] - The introduction of AI technologies in offshore wind power is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [20] - The report highlights the importance of optimizing consumption statistics to better understand economic conditions and consumer behavior [4] Summary by Sections Consumption Statistics - The current consumption statistics in China are limited, with four main indicators failing to provide a complete picture of consumption [3] - The integration of various indicators can offer better insights into economic growth and consumption trends, forming a "micro-macro closed loop" [4] AI and Digital Economy - The Chinese government emphasizes the integration of AI with manufacturing and market advantages, aiming for a comprehensive development of the digital economy with ASEAN [7] - The potential for AI to reshape the global competition landscape is significant, with Southeast Asia focusing on building its digital industry capabilities [8] Offshore Wind Power - The report discusses the strategic importance of offshore wind power in China's marine economy, with significant growth expected in this sector [19] - AI's role in optimizing the planning, operation, and maintenance of offshore wind farms is highlighted, indicating a shift towards more efficient energy production [20] Company-Specific Insights - For China Merchants Shekou, the report notes a slight revenue increase in 2024, but a significant decline in net profit due to reduced gross margins and impairment provisions [26][27] - China Resources Beer is expected to see performance improvements in 2025, with early signs of recovery in beer sales and profit margins [33][37]