宏观动态报告 浮现宽货币,等待宽信用 2025 年 4 月金融数据解读 2025 年 5 月 14 日,央行发布 2025 年 4 月 金融数据, 4 月 M1 同比 1.5% ( 前 ● 值 1.6%），M2 同比 8.0%（前值 7.0%）。新增社融 1.16 万亿元,同比多增 1.22 万亿元，社融增速 8.7%（前值 8.4%）。金融机构新增人民币贷款 2800 浮现宽货币:我们认为 4 月的金融数据呈现比较明显的宽货币特征,M2 重回 8%,4 月全球贸易政策不确定性显著上升,不可避免对企业和居民预期带来 冲击,但衡量信心的 M1 仅小幅滑落并未失速。适度宽松基调下,央行展现保 持金融总量充裕的政策意图,2025年信贷供给侧的发力已比较明确。 等待宽信用:在 4 月的金融数据中,我们尚未找到宽信用链条已经建立的证 据,从政府融资前置到政府支出加快,再到拉动私人部门信用扩张的循环尚未 建立,宽信用仍然需要等待。我们认为在价格水平低位运行的背景下,货币政 策的传导效果部分被稀释。政策性金融工具和 PSL 有望在二季度适时推出协 同发力,这将有助于增加货币政策的传导效果,实现宽信用。 货币供应量数据: M ...

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 北证50 沪深300 -40% ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.05.14) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■Ａ股算数平均涨跌幅 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 ■ 0 -5 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.05.14) ■成交金额（合计/亿元) =换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-19 04-15 05-14 02-13 0518 02-26 03-03 03-06 03-11 03-14 03-24 03-27 04-01 04-07 04-10 04-18 04-28 05-06 05-09 01-23 02-05 02-10 04-23 01- 01 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 可证券|CGS 北交所日报 今日涨跌 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China trade agreement, which includes the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs, creating a more stable environment for negotiations and potentially benefiting various sectors in the A-share market [2][3] - The electronic industry is experiencing a structural recovery, with high growth in segments driven by AI infrastructure, while consumer electronics are supported by government subsidies, leading to stable performance in the Apple supply chain [19][22] - The military industry is poised for growth due to increased domestic demand and military trade opportunities, particularly following the recent India-Pakistan conflict, which has enhanced the visibility of Chinese military equipment [22][24] - The construction materials sector is seeing a recovery in profitability, with expectations of improved demand driven by real estate policies and infrastructure investments, particularly in cement and fiberglass [27][30] - The banking sector is benefiting from a series of financial policies aimed at optimizing credit structures, with a positive outlook for long-term value realization in bank stocks [32][37] Electronic Industry - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a recovery with accelerated domestic substitution, while the consumer electronics segment shows a mixed performance, with some companies benefiting from AI and global expansion [16][17] - The PCB and LED markets are experiencing growth due to increased demand from AI applications and government support, respectively [18][19] Military Industry - The recent India-Pakistan conflict has highlighted the effectiveness of Chinese military equipment, potentially leading to increased military trade opportunities with countries in the Middle East and along the Belt and Road [22][23] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to recover, with improved profitability driven by stabilizing demand in the real estate market and infrastructure investments, particularly in cement and fiberglass [27][30] Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a comprehensive set of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools aimed at enhancing credit quality and supporting economic growth [32][37]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The joint statement from the US-China Geneva trade talks indicates a phased achievement in trade negotiations, with both sides agreeing to reduce tariffs by 115% over the next 90 days [2][3] - The statement reflects a return to normal trade negotiation tracks, highlighting the willingness of both parties to engage in discussions based on mutual benefits [2] Group 2: Export and Economic Growth - China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate, with a projected annual growth of 5.9% in 2024, despite a potential 3.6 percentage point drag from US tariffs [3] - The overall impact of exports on GDP is estimated to be a reduction of about 0.5 percentage points due to the tariffs imposed by the US [3] Group 3: Policy Responses - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing employment and market expectations while accelerating the implementation of existing policies, including the issuance of government bonds [4] - The emphasis is on supporting key sectors, particularly technology and infrastructure, in response to external economic pressures [4] Group 4: Energy Sector Performance - The thermal power sector is experiencing profit growth due to declining coal prices, with net profits of 625.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 37.3% increase year-on-year [20] - The hydropower sector also shows strong performance, with net profits of 563.21 billion yuan in 2024, driven by favorable water conditions and reduced financial costs [21] - Nuclear power is facing short-term profit pressures due to tax payments but is expected to maintain long-term growth potential with new projects coming online [22] Group 5: New Energy Sector Transition - The new energy sector is transitioning to a phase of high-quality development, with a focus on efficiency and profitability, as indicated by the introduction of policy 136 [23][40] - The sector is expected to see a shift from rapid expansion to a more balanced approach, favoring companies with strong cost control and quality projects [25][40] Group 6: Military Industry Outlook - The military industry is projected to face a challenging year in 2024, with revenues expected to decline by 2.6%, but signs of recovery are anticipated in subsequent quarters [32] - The industry is benefiting from increased domestic demand and military trade opportunities, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions [35] Group 7: Computer and Technology Sector - The domestic technology sector is poised for growth due to the ongoing trend of domestic substitution and the emergence of new opportunities in the MCP (Multi-Cloud Platform) space [27][28] - Companies in the computing power supply chain and AI applications are highlighted as key areas for investment [30]

Market Performance - On May 12, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index increased by 2.89%, closing at 1419.13 points[3] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange reached 32.592 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 6.26%[3] - The average daily trading volume for the previous week was 31.119 billion CNY, indicating an increase in trading activity[3] Industry Trends - Major industries on the North Exchange saw gains, with transportation (+11.3%), social services (+7.2%), and defense industry (+7.2%) leading the way[3] - Only the textile and apparel industry experienced a slight decline of -0.1%[3] Stock Performance - Among the 265 listed companies, 243 saw their stock prices rise, while 22 declined[3] - Leading gainers included Qifeng Precision (+29.97%) and Lechuang Technology (+22.28%) with significant trading volumes[3][9] - The most active stocks by turnover included Lingge Technology (625 million CNY) and Chuangyuan Xinke (611 million CNY)[3] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.27 times, higher than the ChiNext's 34.24 times[3] - The electronics sector has the highest average P/E ratio at 238.6 times, while transportation and media sectors have lower valuations[3][12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[3][15]

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The US will impose a 10% tariff on 34% of the goods previously subject to "reciprocal tariffs" within 90 days, aligning with other countries[3] - China will also apply a 10% tariff on the same 34% of goods in response, resulting in a total reduction of tariffs by 115% over the next 90 days[3] - The statement did not address the 20% tariff related to the "fentanyl issue"[3] Group 2: Economic Impact on China - China's export growth is expected to decline by approximately 25 percentage points due to a 30% tariff, impacting the annual growth rate by about 3.6 percentage points[3] - The projected export growth for China in 2024 is 5.9%, with a cumulative growth of 6.4% in the first four months of 2025[3] - The overall impact of tariffs on China's GDP is estimated to be a reduction of about 0.5 percentage points for 2025[3] Group 3: Policy Responses - The Chinese government aims to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, with a focus on job stability as a priority[3] - There is an emphasis on accelerating the implementation of existing policies and increasing support for key sectors like technology and consumption[3] - The use of policy financial tools is suggested as a flexible response to external changes, particularly for urban renewal and infrastructure projects[3] Group 4: Market Reactions - The progress in US-China trade negotiations is expected to enhance market risk appetite for Chinese assets, with a rebound in sectors previously affected by trade tensions[5] - The yield curve for government bonds is anticipated to steepen, with short-term rates declining due to monetary easing, while long-term rates may face upward pressure[5] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to strengthen, with the USD/CNY rate potentially stabilizing around 7.1[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power sector, specifically recommending stocks in thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and renewable energy [2][8]. Core Insights - The power industry is experiencing growth in thermal and hydropower sectors, while nuclear and renewable energy sectors face performance pressures. The overall net profit for the power industry in 2024 is projected to be 1,797 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [11][12]. - The introduction of Document No. 136 is expected to facilitate a transition to high-quality development in the renewable energy sector, with a focus on efficiency and profitability rather than rapid expansion [2][8]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The thermal power sector achieved a net profit of 625.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%. The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 206.3 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to a significant decline in coal prices, which offset the negative impacts of reduced electricity volume and prices [5][17][29]. - The average market price of coal has dropped to 640 yuan per ton as of May 8, 2025, a decrease of 286 yuan per ton or 31% compared to early 2024, indicating potential for improved profitability in the thermal power sector [5][29]. Hydropower - The hydropower sector reported a net profit of 563.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.6%. The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with a net profit of 113.38 billion yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year. This performance is driven by favorable water conditions and reduced financial costs [32][33]. - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower has shown resilience, with a slight decline of only 0.62% year-on-year, indicating strong market positioning [5][45]. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's net profit was 195.91 billion yuan in 2024, down 8.2% year-on-year, primarily due to tax liabilities from previous years. However, excluding one-time factors, the performance remains stable. The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 61.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year [5][12]. - Long-term growth potential is highlighted by the expected commissioning of new units in 2025, which may mitigate the impact of declining electricity prices [5][12]. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector faced challenges with a net profit of -3.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant decline. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a negative trend with a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing pressures from unfavorable resource conditions and declining electricity prices [12][8]. - The implementation of Document No. 136 is anticipated to shift the focus towards high-quality development, emphasizing the importance of existing projects and cost management capabilities among leading firms in the sector [2][8].

北交所日报 北交所日报(2025.05.09) 2025 年 05 月 09 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 2. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证,关注国央企投资价值 3. 【中国银河证券】Deepseek 冲击波:北交所_ 中小企业的智能化赋能 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ☎: 010-8092-7663 网：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 2025-05-09 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源:iFinD,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 1. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展，抓两新两重投资机遇 5 月 9 日, 北证 50 涨跌幅为-0.12%,收于 1379.31点。北证 50 指数开 ● 盘点位为 1380.69 点，最高点位达 1399.14 点，最低点位为 1367.92 点。同 日,上证指数收于 3342.00点,涨跌幅为-0.30%;沪深 300 收 ...

宏观动态报告 关税冲击下的出口韧性 4 月进出口数据解读 2025年5月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 风险提示:外需走弱的风险;国内经济下行的风险;贸易摩擦加剧的风险。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 集成电路和汽车出口修复上行:(1)4月份机电、高技术和劳动密集型产品 ● 出口增速均有不同程度回落,其中机电产品出口增速 10.1%(前值 13.4%), 高新技术产品出口增速 6.5%(前值 7.3%)，劳动密集型产品出口增速转负至 -1.7%（前值 9.1%）；（2）集成电路 20.2%（前值 7.9%）和汽车包括底盘 4.4%(前值 1.7%)出口增速均有不同程度上行;通用机械设备 17%(前值 ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates for a longer period, with a higher probability of rate cuts occurring in the second half of the year, although the likelihood of a July cut is decreasing due to slow tariff negotiations and resilient economic growth [1][2][7] - The A-share market is anticipated to show stronger resilience due to ongoing policy support aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions for company transformation [1][12] Equity Market Insights - The U.S. stock market is facing multiple pressures that could trigger a downward spiral, despite some recovery due to eased tariff policies and fiscal stimulus expectations [1][17] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from policies promoting long-term capital inflows and corporate restructuring, with a focus on high-margin assets and sectors boosted by policy support [1][17] Fixed Income Strategy - The convertible bond market is experiencing a decline, with a focus on identifying undervalued securities and opportunities related to redemption clauses [19][20] - The performance of convertible bonds is closely tied to the overall equity market, with a recommendation for a diversified portfolio including specific convertible bonds [19][21] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" aims to enhance investor returns and expand the scale of equity investments in public funds, which is crucial for long-term capital market stability [24][28] - The plan emphasizes performance-based fee structures and long-term investment strategies to improve the overall quality of the public fund industry [25][26] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector has shown strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant fund allocation and a continuous increase in holdings by public funds, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [30][31] - The sector is expected to maintain high growth momentum due to new product launches and consumer demand stimulation [30][31] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is under pressure due to cost control measures, with a notable decline in revenue and profit margins, but there are signs of recovery in the innovative drug segment [36][39] - The innovative drug sector is projected to benefit from supportive policies and improving market conditions, leading to potential value recovery [38][39]