行业点评报告 · 通信行业 关税政策催新势,自主通信谱华篇 2025 年 04 月 11 日 核心观点 光迅科技（光芯片/光模块龙头）：光迅科技是国内少数具备光芯片自主研发 能力的企业,已实现 25G 及以下 DFB、EML 光芯片的规模量产,并逐步提升 50G、100G 高速光芯片的自供比例。在海外供应链受限的背景下,公司光芯 片有望进一步扩大市场份额。此外,数据中心对高速光模块的需求持续旺盛, 公司光模块主要面向国内市场销售,受关税影响有限。 国盾量子(量子通信龙头):公司依托"墨子号"等卫星的工程经验,构建了 550+ 项专利的技术护城河。2024年,中国电信增资入股国盾量子,进一步强化其 国资背景,加速量子通信产业化进程。量子技术连续第三年登上政府工作报告, 叠加 6G 和卫星互联网建设带来的增量空间,公司正迎来商业化重要拐点。 通宇通讯(5G 基站天线龙头+卫星通信地面设备新锐):通宇通讯在卫星通信 天线及射频器件领域技术积累深厚,其相控阵天线、T/R 组件等产品已应用于 国内低轨卫星星座建设,随着中国"千帆星座"等星座计划的加速推进,市场 需求有望持续放量。 风险提示:全球政治经济形势变动的不确定 ...

2025 年 4 月 11 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 每日晨报 银河观点集锦 宏观:任尔东西南北风 核心观点 要闻 美国 3 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.4% 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:任尔东西南北风。投资启示:中国市场方面,权益市场表现值得期待。 国内大循环的完备性足以让中国在全球"抗差逻辑"下相对美国具有核心优势。 "加征-反制-再加征-再反制"对于权益市场定价造成一定困扰,防御主题表现 更优(必选消费、金融等);中期视角,以确定性拥抱不确定性,内需、硬科 技仍是主线。固收方面,基本面扰动和增量政策预期形成对冲,避险逻辑缓和 央行流动性投放预期将使得债市做多胜率提高。 银行:汇金增持壮大中长期资金力量,重申银行红利价值 -- 中央汇金公司增 O 持 ETF 解读。降准降息预期增强,低利率环境延续,叠加全球政治经济环境 不确定性,资金避险属性提升,银行稳分红、 ...

行业点评报告 · 通信行业 关税政策催新势,自主通信谱华篇 2025 年 04 月 11 日 核心观点 光迅科技（光芯片/光模块龙头）：光迅科技是国内少数具备光芯片自主研发 能力的企业,已实现 25G 及以下 DFB、EML 光芯片的规模量产,并逐步提升 50G、100G 高速光芯片的自供比例。在海外供应链受限的背景下,公司光芯 片有望进一步扩大市场份额。此外,数据中心对高速光模块的需求持续旺盛, 公司光模块主要面向国内市场销售,受关税影响有限。 国盾量子(量子通信龙头):公司依托"墨子号"等卫星的工程经验,构建了 550+ 项专利的技术护城河。2024年,中国电信增资入股国盾量子,进一步强化其 国资背景,加速量子通信产业化进程。量子技术连续第三年登上政府工作报告, 叠加 6G 和卫星互联网建设带来的增量空间,公司正迎来商业化重要拐点。 通宇通讯(5G 基站天线龙头+卫星通信地面设备新锐):通宇通讯在卫星通信 天线及射频器件领域技术积累深厚,其相控阵天线、T/R 组件等产品已应用于 国内低轨卫星星座建设,随着中国"千帆星座"等星座计划的加速推进,市场 需求有望持续放量。 风险提示:全球政治经济形势变动的不确定 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese market amidst global uncertainties, emphasizing the advantages of domestic circulation and the potential for growth in the equity market [6][9][12] - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, estimating a negative effect of approximately 8-10 percentage points on export growth and a 1.5-2.0 percentage point impact on GDP [5][21] - The report outlines the government's commitment to boosting domestic consumption through various policies, including a significant increase in special bonds for consumer subsidies [25][28] Macro Analysis - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, while China's CPI is expected to face downward pressure, with a forecasted decline of around -0.4% in April [1][21] - The report anticipates that the Chinese government will implement a fiscal stimulus of 1.5-2 trillion yuan to support domestic demand and consumption [21][22] - The report notes that the core CPI has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in March, indicating potential stabilization in consumer prices [19][22] Banking Sector - The report emphasizes the role of central financial institutions, such as the Central Huijin Investment, in stabilizing market expectations by increasing their holdings in ETFs [9][10] - It highlights the expected continuation of a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of bank dividends and low volatility [13][12] - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a valuation reset, driven by increased long-term capital inflows and improved market efficiency [12][13] Consumer Sector - The report discusses the expansion of the "immediate refund" tax policy for foreign tourists, which is expected to stimulate domestic consumption and benefit high-quality domestic products [25][26][28] - It notes that the government's focus on boosting consumption is reflected in various initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending capabilities [25][28] - The report anticipates that the combination of the "immediate refund" policy and relaxed entry visa regulations will significantly contribute to the growth of inbound tourism consumption [26][28] Company-Specific Insights - Gu Ming (古茗) is identified as a leading brand in the Chinese tea beverage market, with a strong focus on quality and a robust expansion strategy [34][36] - The company has maintained a high average profit margin for franchisees, indicating strong brand recognition and operational efficiency [35][36] - The report highlights the company's commitment to supply chain management and R&D investment, positioning it well for future growth in the competitive market [35][36] Industry Trends - Tai Chi Co., Ltd. (太极股份) is noted for its strategic focus on AI and domestic innovation, with expectations for performance improvement in the latter half of the year [38][39] - The company has reported a decline in revenue and profit but is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic innovation initiatives [38][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating advanced technologies to enhance service capabilities and drive future growth [40][41]

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.04.10) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■A股算数平均涨跌幅 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Spirity Meditio 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1：北证成交额与换手率情况（截至 2025.04.10) ■ 成交金额（合计/亿元) -换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 02-25 04-10 02-13 02-17 02-19 02-21 02-27 03-03 03-05 03-07 03-13 03-17 03-19 02-11 03-11 03-25 03-27 02-07 03-21 04-02 04-04 04-08 -3( 河证券|CGS 北交所日 ...

公司点评报告 · 公用事业行业 现金分红比例提升,积极探索绿电+业务 - 金开新能 2024 年年报点评 | | | 维持评级 Hilize 分析师 陶贻功 ☎：010-8092-7673 网: taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030001 梁悠南 2025 年 04 月 10 日 1. 【银河环保公用】公司深度_金开新能:聚焦优质 风光资源,装机成长空间广阔 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ☎: 010-8092-7656 网: liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070002 研究助理:马敏 网: mamin_yj@chinastock.com.cn | 市场数据 | 2025-04-09 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 600821 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 5.61 | | 上证指数 | 3,186.81 | | 总股本(万股) | 199,726 | | 实际流通 A 股(万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.612 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.55% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 802.72 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 49.02%, up from 43.28% in 2023 [4] - The company is actively exploring green electricity and related businesses, with a focus on high-energy applications such as computing and chemical industries [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a net investment income of 301 million yuan, a significant increase of 108% year-on-year [4] - The company’s total installed capacity reached 5.55 GW by the end of 2024, with wind power at 1.51 GW and solar power at 3.91 GW [4] - The average on-grid electricity price for wind power was 0.424 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, while for solar power it was 0.442 yuan/kWh, down 6.2% year-on-year [4] - The company’s gross profit margins for wind and solar power were 65.55% and 49.62%, respectively [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 923.14 million yuan, 1.134 billion yuan, and 1.377 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - Revenue growth rates are projected at 12.82% for 2025, 16.24% for 2026, and 14.89% for 2027 [5] - The company’s PE ratios are forecasted to be 12.14x, 9.87x, and 8.14x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]

☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 明显回升, PPI 有待政策加码 3 月物价数据解读 2025年4月10日 分析师 张迪 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 3 月 CPI 环比降幅扩至为-0.4%（前值-0.2%），同比跌幅收窄至-0.1% (前值 ● -0.7%）,过去五年(春节在１月份,下同)的季节性环比均值为-0.4%,其 中食品价格环比下跌 1.4%(前值-0.5%）,过去五年环比均值为-1.7%;非食 品价格环比下跌 0.2%(前值-0.1%），过去五年环比均值为 0%, 食品和非食 品价格下跌共同带动 CPI 环比跌幅扩大。核心 CPI 由跌转涨,环比持平为 0%, 同比上涨 0.5%。PPI 环比降幅为-0.4%(前值-0.1%)，同比下降 2 ...

Key Insights on Local Government Bonds - The local government bonds can be classified based on project revenue attributes into general bonds and special bonds, and based on funding purposes into new bonds and refinancing bonds [2][4] - The average issuance term of local government bonds has increased from 6.3 years in 2015 to 14.8 years by February 2025, influenced by the relaxation of special bond issuance policies [5][11] - The total issuance scale of local government bonds is expected to reach around 1 trillion yuan in 2025, with new general bonds at 80 billion yuan and new special bonds at 440 billion yuan, showing a slight increase from 2024 [11][12] Key Insights on the Technology Sector - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US may provide short-term protection for domestic tech industries but could weaken innovation and competitiveness in the long run [14] - The tariffs may lead to trade partner retaliation, increasing operational costs and uncertainties for tech companies in affected countries like China, while also accelerating their push for technological self-reliance [14][19] - The impact of tariffs on the tech sector is complex, with potential for both challenges and opportunities as companies adapt to new market conditions [14][19] Key Insights on the Military Industry - The military sector is expected to benefit from the current geopolitical tensions, with the US's tariff policies having limited impact on domestic military industries due to their high level of self-sufficiency [18][22] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is anticipated to serve as a catalyst for the military industry, with increased investment opportunities [22] - The military sector's valuation is currently at 44.9%, indicating significant room for growth compared to the tech sector [22] Key Insights on the Chemical Industry - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 60-70 USD per barrel, with industry cost pressures easing but requiring attention to inventory conversion losses [31][33] - The domestic economic stimulus policies are likely to enhance the potential for structural opportunities within the chemical industry, particularly in response to increased domestic demand [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is projected to experience revenue growth from 692.47 million in 2024 to 907.42 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.70% [8] - The net profit is expected to increase from 164.35 million in 2024 to 251.43 million in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 8.79% [8] - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 350.56 million in 2024 to 449.14 million in 2027, showing a steady increase in operational profitability [8] Financial Summary - The total assets are projected to grow from 1851.25 million in 2024 to 3340.40 million in 2027 [7] - The company's total liabilities are expected to increase from 437.22 million in 2024 to 1236.15 million in 2027 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to be 10.40% in 2024, peaking at 12.05% in 2025, and then gradually declining to 11.28% by 2027 [8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is estimated to rise from 285.28 million in 2024 to 406.66 million in 2027 [7] Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is projected to improve from 60.34% in 2024 to 63.60% in 2027 [8] - The net profit margin is expected to increase from 20.50% in 2024 to 24.62% in 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 18.63 in 2024 to 11.84 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation over time [8]