公司点评报告 · 计算机行业 营收稳健增长，AI 赋能三大产品线发力 2025年4月15日 彩讯股份(300634.SZ) 推荐 维持评级 分析师 吴砚靖 ☎: 010-66568589 网:wuyanjing@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519070001 研究助理:胡天昊 ☎: 010-80927637 网: hutianhao_yj @chinastock.com.cn | 市场数据 | 2025-4-15 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 300634 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 22.86 | | 上证指数 | 3,238.23 | | 总股本(万股) | 45,121 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 43,468 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 99 | www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-4-15 料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 事件:4月11日,公司发布 2024年年度业绩报告。报告期内,公司实现 ● 营业收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience a revenue growth rate of 20.50% in 2025, following a decline of 5.02% in 2024 [4] - The net profit is expected to rebound significantly, with a growth rate of 173.40% in 2025 after a sharp decline of 68.67% in 2024 [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually from 63.78% in 2024 to 66.10% by 2027 [4][6] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 2013.86 million - 2025E: 2426.70 million - 2026E: 2851.14 million - 2027E: 3304.97 million [4] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 142.40 million - 2025E: 389.32 million - 2026E: 469.01 million - 2027E: 558.91 million [4][6] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross Margin: Expected to rise from 63.78% in 2024 to 66.10% in 2027 - PE Ratio: Expected to decrease from 93.32 in 2024 to 23.78 in 2027 [4][6] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 306.66 million in 2024 to 638.32 million in 2027 [5]

政策护航，机遇乍现 ——2025 年 4 月月中科技金股投资组合报告 策略分析师：蔡芳媛 投资组合报告 政策护航，机遇乍现 www.chinastock.com.cn 駩⯟煝疵䫟⼴ 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻 —— 2025 年 4 月月中科技金股投资组合报告 2025 䌑 4 劓 14 傽 分析师 核心观点 l 2025 年 4 月银河科技先锋金股组合（不分先后）包括： | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 所属行业 | EPS | EPS | PE | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A/E | 2025E | 2024A/E | 2025E | | 600941.SH | ╚㎼瓌Ⲙ | ꄽ⟥ | 6.41 | 6.78 | 17.13 | 16.19 | | 300383.SZ | ⩱楒假羱 | ꄽ⟥ | 0.23 | 0.25 | 65.91 | 59.73 | | 688088.SH | 轀鿞璇䪫 | 駉砯勨 | 0.44 | 0.59 | 96.48 | 71.95 | | 688041. ...

Export Performance - In March, China's exports reached $313.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4%, significantly higher than the cumulative growth rate of 2.3% for January-February[5] - The first quarter export growth rate was 5.8%, nearly matching last year's annual growth rate of 5.86%[5] - The trade surplus for the first quarter was $273.16 billion, compared to $183.18 billion in the same period last year[5] Import Trends - Imports in March totaled $211.3 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, and a cumulative decline of 8.4% for January-February[5] - The first quarter import growth rate was -7%, a drop of 8.1 percentage points compared to last year's annual performance[5] - The decline in imports was influenced by falling international commodity prices, with significant drops in iron ore and coal prices exceeding 20%[7] External Demand and Market Conditions - Global manufacturing PMI in March remained stable at 50.3, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector[6] - The export new orders index for China’s PMI rose to 49 in March, reflecting a recovery in external demand[6] - Exports to the US saw a significant rebound with a growth rate of 9.1% in March, compared to a previous decline of 9.8%[16] Sector-Specific Insights - Mechanical and labor-intensive product exports showed substantial improvement, with mechanical product exports growing by 13.4% and labor-intensive products by 9.1%[20] - High-tech product exports experienced a slight decline, with integrated circuits and mobile phones growing by 7.9% and 7.7%, respectively[20] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 11.6%, with notable growth rates for Thailand (27.8%) and Indonesia (24.6%)[17] Risks and Future Outlook - The average tariff rate imposed by the US on Chinese goods is approximately 156%, creating significant uncertainty for exporters[27] - Long-term export growth is expected to be supported by improved product competitiveness and the expansion of new trade partnerships[28] - Potential risks include weakening external demand, domestic economic downturns, and escalating trade tensions[31]

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-01-02 2024-01-22 2024-02-19 2024-03-08 2024-03-28 2024-04-19 2024-05-14 2024-06-03 2024-06-24 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 2024-08-21 2024-09-10 2024-10-06 2024-10-24 2024-11-13 2024-12-03 2024-12-23 2025-01-13 2025-02-10 2025-02-28 2025-03-20 2025-04-10 机械设备 沪深300 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫⚫⚫⚫ | 一、 周行情复盘 | | --- | | 二、 重点新闻 | | 三、风险提示 | 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 国银河证券|CGS 行业周报 · 机械设备行业 周行情复盘 上周机械设备指数下跌 6.78%，沪深 300指数下跌 2.87%，创业板指下跌 6.73%。机械设备在 全部 31 个行业中涨跌幅排名第 29 位。剔除负值后，机械行业估值水平（整体法）30.6 倍。 行业周 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year in March, with core CPI at 3.0%, which is significantly below expectations, indicating potential economic stagnation before the impact of tariffs is fully realized [2][3] - The report suggests that the large-scale tariff impacts may lead to a scenario of "short-term stagflation and long-term deflation," with expectations of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in the second half of the year [5][6] - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to benefit from domestic self-sufficiency initiatives due to U.S. tariff policies, with a focus on companies involved in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and RF and analog ICs [18][21] - The communication sector is identified as having significant growth potential in areas such as optical communication, quantum communication, and satellite communication, driven by the need for self-sufficiency in technology [23][24] - The textile and apparel industry is advised to focus on high-quality growth and international capacity layout, as smaller companies may struggle to absorb tariff costs, leading to market consolidation [26][29] Macro Insights - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment is characterized by a potential liquidity crisis in the U.S. bond market, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [5][6] - The report notes that the market is currently reacting negatively to inflation data, with significant declines in U.S. stock indices and a weakening dollar [6][11] Sector-Specific Insights - In the semiconductor sector, the report emphasizes the importance of local production strategies in response to tariffs, which may lead to increased demand for domestic manufacturers like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor [20][21] - The communication sector is highlighted for its potential to develop a robust domestic technology ecosystem, with a focus on companies that can navigate the current geopolitical landscape [23][24] - The textile and apparel sector is advised to leverage international production advantages and focus on high-value products to maintain margins amid tariff pressures [26][29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the semiconductor industry that are aligned with self-sufficiency goals and have strong domestic production capabilities [21] - In the communication sector, it suggests investing in firms with clear technological advantages and market share growth potential [24] - For the textile and apparel industry, the report advises targeting leading companies with established overseas production capabilities to weather tariff impacts [29]

| | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11886.25 | 12035.72 | 12467.51 | 13019.38 | | 收入增长率% | -5.22 | 1.26 | 3.59 | 4.43 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1663.90 | 1734.82 | 1840.55 | 1944.52 | | 利润增速% | 16.39 | 4.26 | 6.09 | 5.65 | | 毛利率% | 28.93 | 28.84 | 29.12 | 29.22 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 2.04 | 2.13 | 2.26 | 2.38 | | PE | 11.43 | 10.96 | 10.33 | 9.78 | | ьв | 1.42 | 1.26 | 1.12 | 1.00 | | PS | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.53 | 1.46 | | 市场数据 | 2025-04-11 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 600323 | | A 股收盘 ...

行业点评报告 · 通信行业 住借重核 2025年04月10日 核心观点 建议关注:运营商中国移动(A+H)、中国电信(A+H)、中国联通(A+H)。 ● 风险提示:全球政治经济形势变动的不确定风险;AI+发展不及预期的风险等。 通信行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 赵良毕 ☎: 010-8092-7619 网:zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030003 赵中兴 资料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河证券】2025年度策略报告:高成长高景气, 科技变革创长牛 3. 【银河通信】运营商行业 2024年中报专题: 运营 商利润增速稳健，数智化转型全球领先 4. 【银河通信】出海专题报告:技术+成本优势驱动, 市占率持续提升 5. 【银河通信】中期策略报告：AI 为基算力为石, 科技变革浩瀚星辰 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 区：zhaozhongxing_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130524090002 2025-04-10 相对沪深 300 表现图 An no ...

维持评级 高峰 | 市场数据 | 2025-04-11 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 300708 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 10.80 | | 上证指数 | 3,223.64 | | 总股本(万股) | 67,621 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 50,330 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 56 | —— 聚灿光电 2025 年一季报点评 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ · 电子行业 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(亿元) | 27.60 | 33.19 | 37.67 | 43.73 | | 收入增长率% | 11.23 | 20.27 | 13.51 | 16.07 | | 归母净利润(亿元) | 1.96 | 3.02 | 3.52 | 3.92 | | 利润增速% | 61.44 | 54.50 | 16.51 | 11.45 | | 毛利率% | 13.70 | 15.71 | 15.98 | 15.54 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.30 ...

| 市场数据 | 2025-4-10 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002078.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 14.00 | | 上证指数 | 3,223.64 | | 总股本(万股) | 279,454 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 276,488 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 387.08 | -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 太阳纸业 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 公司点评报告 · 轻工行业 主要财务指标预测 E券|CGS 附录: 公司财务预测表 | 资产负债表(百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 流动资产 | 12,762 | 14,314 | 17,734 | 21,221 | | 现金 | 3,234 | 4,07 ...