丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company has officially entered the production phase for its COC project, with qualified products successfully produced. This project has passed safety facility acceptance review and is now registered with government departments [2][6][11]. - The COC project is expected to significantly expand the company's market opportunities, as it is the first domestic company to achieve mass production of COC/COP, which has previously been reliant on imports [11]. - The company has implemented an equity incentive plan to motivate core personnel, which is expected to support the steady progress of COC product production and sales [11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is 46.44 yuan, with a total share capital of 95.7 million shares. The net asset per share is 9.68 yuan, and the highest and lowest prices in the last 12 months were 51.48 yuan and 30.98 yuan, respectively [8]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 0.35 billion yuan, 2.64 billion yuan, and 4.61 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 125.5X, 16.9X, and 9.7X [11][16]. Market Potential - The COC product has superior optical performance and high technical barriers, with the domestic market currently being unfilled. The pricing for similar products from Japanese manufacturers ranges from 120,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic production to lower costs and expand application fields [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - The upgrade of AI special glass fiber is accelerating, with a focus on the volume increase of high-end products [6][10] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8][9] - Recommended investment in domestic substitution chains and African chains, with existing leading companies as the main line for the year [10] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Market - In late June, the average shipping rate of national cement enterprises was 43%, down approximately 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The national average cement price decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with most regions experiencing price declines [8][26] - The national cement average price was 357.74 yuan/ton, down 3.71 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 37.90 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market saw a slight improvement in transactions, but prices remained stable [9] - The total inventory of monitored provinces was 59 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.52 million weight boxes, with a decline of 2.51% [38][39] - The national average glass price was 69.17 yuan/weight box, down 0.81 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 18.17 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] Special Glass Fiber - China National Materials Technology is a leading domestic supplier of special glass fiber, benefiting from the upgrade trend [7] - The company is expected to achieve a monthly production capacity of 6 million meters by the end of 2026, with a projected performance of approximately 3.8 billion yuan in 2025-2026 [7] - The upgrade from M8 to M9 in copper-clad laminates is expected to drive the scale increase of high-end products [6] Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include China National Materials Technology, Meijia Xincai, and Punaite Co., Ltd. for domestic substitution [10] - Keda Manufacturing is recommended for the African chain, benefiting from local market advantages [10] - The report also highlights the potential of Sanhe Tree and Rabbit Baby in the existing stock chain [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the polyester industrial yarn industry [12]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industrial yarn industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in market conditions due to a slowdown in supply and steady growth in demand, with potential investment opportunities in related companies [10][54]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic demand for polyester industrial yarn is steadily increasing, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.773 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2014 to 2024 [7][24]. - The export volume is expected to reach 560,000 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a CAGR of 4.4% from 2014 to 2024 [7][29]. - The main application areas include automotive (45% share) and non-automotive sectors (55% share), with growth driven by the automotive industry and diversification into new fields such as deep-sea technology [22][24]. Supply Side Summary - China holds over 70% of the global polyester industrial yarn production capacity, with an annual capacity of 3.34 million tons expected by the end of 2024 [8][35]. - The capacity expansion phase has ended, with no new capacity expected after 2023, and the industry concentration is increasing due to the exit of smaller players [8][37]. - The top five companies in the industry account for 65.2% of the market share, indicating a high level of concentration [8][37]. Market Conditions Summary - The market conditions for polyester industrial yarn are showing signs of recovery, with prices for ordinary yarn reaching 9,050 yuan per ton as of July 1, 2025, reflecting a 7.7% increase since the beginning of 2025 [9][46]. - The profit margins for melt-spinning and chip-spinning processes have also improved significantly, indicating a positive trend in the industry's profitability [9][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities within the polyester industrial yarn sector, highlighting the favorable supply-demand dynamics and the potential for gradual market recovery [10][54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - On June 26, 2025, the company held a robot strategy launch event, showcasing its "trinity" strategic layout in the robotics industry, four core advantages, assembly lines, product matrix, and the latest achievements in the development of robot application scenarios [2][6] - The company is a leading global supplier of AI terminal hardware, focusing on providing comprehensive intelligent manufacturing services and solutions to global customers. The launch event signifies the company's further focus on cutting-edge fields such as "human-eye-folding" to build comprehensive product solution capabilities in the future AI terminal market [2][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company is positioned as a global leader in AI terminal hardware, emphasizing the integration of applications, solutions, and services in the context of vertical integration in the future AI terminal market [12] Robotics Strategy - The company defines its robotics business as "trinity" intelligence, focusing on core component and assembly design, comprehensive hardware services, and complete industrial application scenario development. The company has accumulated relevant technology since 2009 and has established a full-chain system for precision components, core modules, joint assemblies, complete machine assembly, and performance testing [12] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 2.437 billion, 2.947 billion, and 3.987 billion respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a significant increase of 8.18% last week, outperforming the overall market, which rose by 1.91% [2][4]. - The report highlights the active interest in stablecoins and financial IT concepts, particularly following regulatory developments in Hong Kong [6][49]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with issuance qualifications, those with technological expertise in blockchain, and firms holding relevant licenses [6][49]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector ranked first among major industries, with a trading volume accounting for 12.44% of the total market [4][12]. - Notable stocks in the sector included Tianli Technology (+58.40%), Jingbeifang (+39.90%), and others, reflecting strong performance in financial IT and stablecoin-related themes [14][15]. Stablecoin Focus - The Hong Kong government has approved regulations to enhance the trading of virtual assets, including stablecoins, which are expected to grow rapidly [6][38]. - As of May 1, 2025, the total market size of stablecoins reached approximately $227.37 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 46.5% [38][40]. - Stablecoins are increasingly being utilized in cross-border remittances, offering faster and cheaper transactions compared to traditional methods [44]. Technological Developments - Tesla's Robotaxi service has launched, potentially accelerating the commercialization of autonomous taxi services [17][25]. - Neuralink has made significant advancements in brain-machine interface technology, showcasing its potential to improve the quality of life for individuals with disabilities [26][35].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [14]. Core Insights - The supply of land is increasingly concentrated in core areas, with both the scale and quality of land supply declining since Q1 2025. In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative launched residential land area in 300 cities decreased by 16.9% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing an increase of 33.8% [3][7]. - The transaction volume and premium rates for land have also decreased in April and May 2025, primarily due to declining supply quality and uncertain absorption rates. The cumulative transaction area and amount in the first five months of 2025 for 300 cities showed a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% and an increase of 24.6%, respectively [8][11]. - Leading real estate companies such as Poly, China Resources, and Zhaoshang have increased their land acquisition efforts, while companies like Jinmao and Yuexiu have shown strong performance in both land acquisition and sales [9][11]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The land supply has further concentrated in core areas, with a notable decline in both scale and quality since Q1. In May 2025, the launched residential land area in 300 cities decreased by 13.0% month-on-month compared to April, and the core six cities saw a 16.8% increase in launched area [7][8]. Transaction Side - The transaction volume and premium rates have decreased, with the cumulative transaction area in the first five months of 2025 showing a year-on-year decline of 6.3%. The core six cities experienced significant increases in transaction amounts, with a year-on-year increase of 156.1% [8][11]. Real Estate Companies - In May 2025, leading companies such as Poly, China Resources, and Zhaoshang were active in the land market, with total acquisition amounts of 11.1 billion, 9.8 billion, and 5.3 billion respectively. The top three companies in cumulative land acquisition amounts from January to May 2025 were China Resources, Poly, and Greentown, with amounts of 42.7 billion, 42.0 billion, and 37.5 billion respectively [9][11]. Quality of Land Acquisition - In April and May 2025, companies like Yuexiu and Greentown demonstrated superior land acquisition quality. The overall land acquisition quality scores indicated that companies such as China Resources, Yuexiu, and Greentown had higher regional capability and expected profitability [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - Neuralink, a leading brain-computer interface company, showcased significant advancements in its technology, indicating a potential acceleration in the commercialization of brain-computer interfaces [2][10]. - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1) domestic mapping of the advanced overseas invasive brain-computer interface supply chain; 2) product deployment of non-invasive brain-computer interfaces in consumer scenarios; 3) downstream application targets related to brain-computer interfaces [10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On June 27, Neuralink released a one-hour video demonstrating its latest research achievements and product development directions [3]. Event Commentary - The report highlights the impressive progress of Neuralink's brain-computer interface technology, which has significantly improved the quality of life for its seven trial participants, including patients with spinal cord injuries and ALS [10]. - Future plans include the development of a "full brain interface" with milestones set for 2025 to 2027, aiming to decode conscious speech and restore vision [10]. Product Overview - Neuralink currently has three products targeting different scenarios: 1) "Telepathy" for patients with motor disabilities; 2) "Blindsight" for visually impaired individuals; 3) "Deep" for neurological disorders [10].

Overall Viewpoint - The electric new industry is expected to maintain a favorable trajectory, with potential reversals in bottom sectors and continuous growth in new directions [6][22][25]. Continued Prosperity - The lithium battery sector shows a stable competitive landscape with strong demand from domestic and European markets, as well as emerging markets for energy storage [7][30]. - Wind power is anticipated to see increased installations, particularly in offshore wind, with significant growth expected in 2025-2026 [7][30]. - Energy storage is projected to recover in the domestic market, with strong demand from Australia and emerging markets, while commercial storage is expected to become a new growth driver [7][30][25]. Bottom Reversal - Lithium battery materials are currently at a cyclical low, with expectations for production recovery and price stabilization in the second half of 2025 [9][26]. - The photovoltaic sector is also at a cyclical bottom, with policy support expected to alleviate supply-demand imbalances by the end of 2025 [9][26]. New Growth Directions - Humanoid robots and AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) are emerging as significant growth areas, with strong production trends expected in 2025 [10][28]. - The humanoid robot sector is seeing progress from both domestic and international manufacturers, with Tesla's orders expected to catalyze growth [10][28]. - AIDC is experiencing fluctuations in capital expenditure from major internet companies, with potential catalysts from new technology applications [10][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the new home appliance industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for growth in the new home appliance sector, emphasizing low penetration rates and significant market opportunities [11][17][27]. - Chinese brands are increasingly capturing market share in the global landscape, particularly in the vacuum cleaner and smart imaging device segments [39][62]. - Technological advancements and product leadership are key drivers for the success of Chinese manufacturers in the industry [67][82]. Summary by Sections 1. Space: Low Penetration, High Potential - The new home appliance categories, such as robotic vacuums, have low global penetration rates, indicating substantial growth potential. For instance, the global market size for robotic vacuums is projected to reach 51.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a penetration rate of around 10% [11][17]. - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for robotic vacuums from 2024 to 2029 is approximately 6% [11]. - The market for boundary-less lawn mowers is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 51% from 2024 to 2029 [26]. 2. Pattern: Rise of Domestic Brands - Chinese brands have significantly increased their market share in the global robotic vacuum market, with a notable rise in high-end segments, where their share is expected to reach 80.2% by 2024 [39][42]. - The report indicates that the leading Chinese brand, Roborock, has surpassed iRobot in global market share, achieving 16% in 2024 [39][45]. - In the boundary-less lawn mower segment, brands like Ninebot and Roborock are expected to see substantial growth in sales volume, with Ninebot projected to sell 150,000 units in 2024 [58]. 3. Path: Technology Empowerment and Product Leadership - Chinese manufacturers are leading in technological advancements for robotic vacuums, utilizing a hybrid navigation system that combines laser and visual technologies, unlike iRobot's single-vision approach [67]. - The report notes that the introduction of boundary-less lawn mowers by Chinese companies has addressed previous inefficiencies associated with traditional models, enhancing user experience [72]. - In the handheld smart imaging device market, brands like Insta360 are rapidly innovating, outpacing competitors like GoPro in product iteration speed and technological advancements [82][85]. 4. Evaluation: Channel Endorsement and Brand Recognition - The report highlights that Chinese brands are establishing strong brand recognition and consumer trust, as evidenced by their high ratings on platforms like Amazon [99]. - Search performance data indicates that Roborock has a significantly higher global search volume compared to iRobot, reflecting its growing brand influence [100].