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伊戈尔(002922):AI浪潮引领电力新局,变压器出口先发制胜
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 14:14
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [11]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the overseas transformer market, benefiting from significant advantages in product technology, overseas production capacity, and downstream customer relationships. Given the current tight supply of transformers abroad and the anticipated widening supply gap due to AI development, the company is expected to benefit from this trend, with an increasing proportion of overseas customers driving operational growth. A turning point in operations has already been observed [2][9]. Summary by Sections Overall Business Focus - The company has accelerated its business expansion since its IPO in 2017, focusing on digital transformation and expanding production bases both domestically and internationally. The core business has shifted towards energy products, particularly transformers, which are expected to see a significant increase in revenue share from 56% in 2021 to 73% in 2024 [5][25][20]. Main Business: North America Focus - The company has strategically positioned itself in the North American market, where the construction speed of power supply and grid infrastructure does not match the rapid development of AI data centers, leading to potential electricity shortages. The company has established a competitive edge in overseas production capacity and customer relationships, with plans for production bases in Malaysia, Thailand, the USA, and Mexico [6][74][82]. New Business Ventures - The company is actively developing new areas in AIDC high-voltage direct current power products, particularly in Panama, where it has established a leading position in phase-shifting transformer technology. This segment is expected to contribute additional growth if successful [8][91][107]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 500 million yuan by 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 28 times. The ongoing tight supply of transformers and the expected increase in overseas customer share are expected to enhance profit growth elasticity [9][12].
——可转债周报20251227:商业航天起势,转债参与机会如何?-20251230
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 11:41
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Driven by policies and growth logic, the commercial space sector has recently gained momentum. Since late November, the sector's convertible bonds have shown a pattern of premium compression followed by price increases. The current valuation is high but the equity nature has strengthened, and the short - term forced redemption pressure may be relatively small [6][11]. - A - shares strengthened overall during the week, with the ChiNext and small - and medium - cap styles outperforming. Cyclical manufacturing sectors such as non - ferrous metals and defense industries led the gains, and the sector congestion showed a differentiated pattern [6][11]. - The convertible bond market also strengthened overall, with small - cap indices outperforming large - cap ones. Valuations were differentiated, and the implied volatility and median price remained at high levels. Structurally, cyclical manufacturing sectors performed well, and some high - premium convertible bonds had significant price increases [6][11]. - The primary market issuance was stable with sufficient reserves. Clause games were the current focus, with issuers having a weak willingness to lower the conversion price while the redemption game intensified. Attention should be paid to the valuation adjustment under emotional disturbances [6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Theme Weekly Review - During the week from December 21 to December 27, 2025, the equity market strengthened overall. The lithium - battery and commercial space sectors were strong. In the lithium - battery sector, the lithium - battery electrolyte, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium - ore, and power - battery indices performed well. In the commercial space sector, the aerospace technology, commercial space, and satellite - internet indices led the gains [24]. 3.2 Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1 Main Indices Strengthened, Small - and Medium - Cap Performed Well - A - share main indices strengthened during the week, with the ChiNext Index performing strongly among the three major indices. In terms of style, the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 indices outperformed other major size indices [26]. - In terms of capital, the net outflow of the market's main funds converged. The average daily trading volume in the market recovered, and the net outflow of main funds slightly decreased. Main funds showed a net inflow on Monday and Wednesday [26]. - Cyclical manufacturing sectors in the A - share market were strong. Non - ferrous metals, defense industries, power equipment, and machinery sectors led the gains, while banks and coal sectors were relatively weak [29]. - In terms of trading volume, funds mainly concentrated in the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors. The average daily trading volume of the electronics sector accounted for over 15% [31]. - The market sector congestion was significantly differentiated. The congestion in the electronics, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and defense industries sectors recovered, while that in the social services, beauty care, and food and beverage sectors decreased [33]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market Strengthened Overall, Small - Cap Indices Performed Well - The convertible bond market strengthened from December 21 to 27, 2025. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose, with small - cap convertible bond indices outperforming large - cap ones. The trading volume recovered, and the average daily trading volume exceeded 80 billion yuan [34]. - Valuations in the convertible bond market were differentiated. By conversion parity range, the conversion premium rate in the 140 - 150 yuan parity range expanded significantly, while those in the 130 - 140 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan ranges compressed significantly. By market price range, the conversion premium rate only expanded significantly in the 100 - 110 yuan and 130 - 140 yuan ranges, and compressed significantly in the 120 - 130 yuan and over 150 yuan ranges [37]. - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market balance strengthened with fluctuations during the week, remaining at a historically high level. The median market price of convertible bonds also strengthened slightly with fluctuations and remained at a high historical level [40]. - Convertible bonds in cyclical manufacturing sectors were more elastic. Defense industries, non - ferrous metals, light manufacturing, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains. In terms of trading volume, the construction materials, electronics, and light manufacturing sectors accounted for over 10% each [44]. - Most individual convertible bonds recovered during the week. The number of convertible bonds with a range increase of 0 or more was 338, accounting for 84.7% of all outstanding convertible bonds in the market. The top five convertible bonds in terms of cross - week gains during the conversion period were Jiamei Convertible Bond, Zai 22 Convertible Bond, Mengsheng Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, and Huayi Convertible Bond, while the bottom five were Yingte Convertible Bond, Furong Convertible Bond, Xinzhi Convertible Bond, Huati Convertible Bond, and Saili Convertible Bond. The top five gainers generally had a relatively high conversion premium rate [46]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Plan Update - During the week from December 21 to 27, 2025, one convertible bond was listed (Pulian Convertible Bond), and two were available for subscription (Jin 05 Convertible Bond and Shuangle Convertible Bond). Jin 05 Convertible Bond's issuer is Jinpan Technology, in the power equipment industry, with a latest debt rating of AA+ and an issuance scale of 1.67 billion yuan. Shuangle Convertible Bond's issuer is Shuangle Co., Ltd., in the basic chemicals industry, with a latest debt rating of AA - and an issuance scale of 800 million yuan [50]. - Seven listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans during the week, including three at the exchange acceptance stage, one at the general meeting of shareholders approval stage, and three at the board of directors' proposal stage. The total disclosed scale of projects at and after the exchange acceptance stage was 75.74 billion yuan [51][52]. 3.3.2 Clause - Related Announcements - **Lowering the Conversion Price**: Six convertible bonds issued announcements of expected triggering of a lower conversion price, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 4.1; five convertible bonds announced not to lower the conversion price, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 1.4; no convertible bonds proposed to lower the conversion price [59]. - **Redemption**: Two convertible bonds announced expected triggering of redemption; four announced not to redeem in advance; four announced early redemption [60].
AI 系列跟踪(87):MiniMax 和智谱冲击 IPO,关注中国大模型企业资本化进程加速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 08:56
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - MiniMax and Zhipu have passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, indicating a continuous acceleration in the capitalization process of Chinese large model enterprises. Zhipu's foundational model performance is leading, with GLM-4.7 topping the global open-source rankings. The AI model product matrix is complete, and the MaaS platform is progressing well in commercialization. MiniMax is actively laying out AI application segments, with its visual generation platform Hailuo AI and multimodal interaction platform Talkie/Xingye showing active performance, suggesting a promising acceleration in commercialization [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - MiniMax and Zhipu have passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, indicating a continuous acceleration in the capitalization process of Chinese large model enterprises [4]. Event Commentary - Zhipu's GLM-4.7 model, launched in December 2025, has enhanced coding capabilities and ranks first in both open-source and domestic models with a score of 68 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Zhipu's revenue from 2022 to 2024 shows a compound annual growth rate of 130%, with revenue reaching 1.91 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. MiniMax's model matrix includes the MiniMax M series and Hailuo-02 series, with the MiniMax M.2.1 model achieving a score of 49.4% on the Multi-SWE-bench ranking. MiniMax's AI applications have served over 200 million individual users and 100,000 enterprises across more than 100 countries, with significant growth in user spending on its services [10][10][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several promising segments: 1) The monetization potential of AI interaction products, focusing on leading tool-based companies like Kuaishou [2] 2) Internet giants with advantages in traffic, models, and data [2] 3) Vertical segments such as advertising, e-commerce, and education that have successfully established business models overseas and are expected to replicate domestically [2] 4) AI+ gaming companies that are actively deploying AI [2]
数字货币跟踪:数字人民币迎来重大调整,2026年1月1日起钱包余额可计息
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 08:52
宗建树 卢之晗 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525120001 SFC:BUX668 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 数字货币跟踪:数字人民币迎来重大调整,2026 年 1 月 1 日起钱包余额可计息 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在总结十年研发试点经验基础上,中国人民银行出台了《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务 体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》,方案从机制上明确了数字人民币将从数字现金时 代迈入数字存款货币时代。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 数字货币跟踪:数字人民币迎来重大调整, 2] 2026 年 1 月 1 日起钱包余额可计息 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 12 月 29 日,中国人民银行党委委员、副行长陆磊在《金融时报》发表文章称,中国人民银行 出台了《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》, ...
游戏产业跟踪(18):2025年版号数量创多年新高,继续推荐游戏板块投资机会
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 08:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming sector [6]. Core Insights - The number of game approvals in December reached a multi-year high, with significant titles from companies like Tencent, Kaiying, and 37 Interactive Entertainment receiving approval. The total number of game approvals for 2025 is expected to reach 1,771, a 25% increase from 2024, marking the highest number since 2019 [2][4][9]. - The report highlights a new product cycle for listed companies, with several key new games set to launch, suggesting continued investment opportunities in the gaming sector [2][4][9]. Summary by Sections Game Approval Highlights - In December, 147 game approvals were issued, including 144 domestic and 3 imported games. The total for 2025 is projected to be 1,771, with 1,676 domestic and 95 imported games, reflecting a stable approval rhythm [9]. - The pace of imported game approvals has accelerated, with monthly approvals starting from October 2024, averaging around 100 approvals annually over the past three years [9]. New Game Launches - Several companies are advancing their key new games, indicating the onset of a new product cycle. Notable launches include Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future," among others [9]. - The report lists several companies to watch for investment opportunities, including Giant Network, Kaiying, Perfect World, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Tencent [9].
通信行业周观点:推理+多模态智算升级,商业航天迈入新程-20251230
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 08:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [10]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 4.21% increase in the 52nd week of 2025, ranking 8th among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 87.14%, ranking 1st [2][4]. - Nvidia has entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI inference chip leader Groq, with a transaction value of $20 billion, significantly above Groq's September valuation of $6.9 billion. This acquisition enhances Nvidia's capabilities in inference processing [5]. - Alibaba's Tongyi Laboratory has launched a self-developed layered architecture image model, Qwen-Image-Layered, which optimizes computing power and enables precise image editing, facilitating the international expansion of domestic multimodal large models [6]. - The Long March 12 rocket successfully completed its first flight, marking a milestone for China's commercial aerospace sector, with new regulations facilitating the listing of rocket companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 52nd week of 2025, the communication sector increased by 4.21%, with a year-to-date rise of 87.14%, leading among major industries [2][4]. - Top gainers in the sector include Tongyu Communication (+30.7%), Yongding Co. (+28.1%), and Beidou Star (+27.3%), while China Telecom (-5.3%), Dekeli (-3.6%), and Shijia Photon (-3.6%) faced declines [4]. Key Developments - Nvidia's acquisition of Groq focuses on Groq's LPU architecture, which uses on-chip SRAM to enhance memory access speed, improving the overall inference processing ecosystem [5]. - Alibaba's Qwen-Image-Layered model breaks traditional diffusion model limitations, achieving element-level decoupling and precise editing, thus supporting the export of domestic multimodal models [6]. - The successful flight of the Long March 12 rocket represents a significant advancement in commercial aerospace, with new guidelines supporting the listing of rocket companies [7]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended operators include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. - For optical modules, recommended companies are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Shijia Photon, with attention to Taicheng Light and Yuanjie Technology. - In liquid cooling, the recommendation is for Yingweike, while for hollow core fibers, Fenghuo Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Zhongtian Technology are suggested, with a focus on Changfei Optical Fiber. - For domestic computing power, recommended companies include Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, Huafeng Technology, Guangxun Technology, ZTE, and Unisplendour. - In AI applications, recommended firms are Boshi Jie, Heertai, Tuobang Co., Yiyuan Communication, Meige Intelligent, and Guanghetong. - For satellite applications, recommended companies include Huace Navigation, Haige Communication, and Canqin Technology [8].
电子行业2026年度投资策略:从云端到端云共振
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 01:58
%% %% %% %% research.95579.com 行业研究丨深度报告丨电子设备、仪器和元件 [Table_Title] 从云端到端云共振——电子行业 2026年度投资 策略 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 回顾过去十年电子板块行情,在当年能够形成成本通胀的环节投资收益率居前,或因创新升规, 或因供需错配,以此来对抗成本通缩。展望 2026 年,仍应当从 AI 的变化中寻找电子最强景气。 当前 AGI 的发展正在从 AI 推理升级为 AI 代理,AI 眼镜、AI 手机、桌面机器人等智能终端将 有望成为最先爆发的场景。因此,我们判断端与云将形成共振,云端看好通胀最剧烈的 PCB 和 存储,包括正交背板、颗粒原厂、存储设备;端侧看好 AI 眼镜放量,可对标 2019 年 TWS 耳 机爆发,以及 AI、折叠屏、机器人等新品创新下的供应链机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 谢尔曼 王泽罡 SAC:S0490517070012 SAC:S0490518070003 SAC:S0490521120001 SFC:BUW100 钟智铧 蔡少东 张梦杰 SA ...
2025深圳脑博会召开,关注脑机接口产业进展:2025年第52周计算机行业周报-20251230
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 01:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The computer sector has shown a continuous rebound, with an overall increase of 2.13%, ranking 14th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region, and accounting for 5.77% of the total market turnover [2][4][13] - The report highlights significant advancements in the brain-computer interface (BCI) industry, particularly with the upcoming Shenzhen Brain Expo, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of BCI technologies [6][49] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1) domestic mapping of invasive BCI technologies from advanced overseas industries; 2) product deployment of non-invasive BCIs in consumer scenarios; 3) downstream applications related to BCIs [6][62] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector's performance last week was characterized by a strong market rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3900 points, closing at 3963.68 points, reflecting an overall increase of 1.88% [4][13] - The computer sector's turnover accounted for 5.77% of the total market, with notable activity in commercial aerospace and space computing-related stocks [2][4] Key Developments - The report emphasizes the recent achievements in quantum error correction by the University of Science and Technology of China, marking a significant milestone for future large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing [10][22] - The successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket and the support from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for commercial rocket enterprises are highlighted as pivotal developments in the commercial aerospace sector [30][40] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies the BCI industry as a key area for investment, particularly in light of supportive policies and the potential for rapid commercialization [6][62] - The upcoming Shenzhen Brain Expo is expected to showcase advancements and foster investment opportunities in the BCI sector [49][62] - The report also notes the acceleration of IPO processes for commercial aerospace companies, which could enhance capital flow into the industry [40][48]
收入表现超预期,全年指引略上调:望远镜系列31之Lululemon FY2025Q3经营跟踪
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In FY2025Q3, the company achieved revenue of $2.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding market expectations (Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.48 billion) [2][6] - Gross margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 55.6%, primarily impacted by rising tariffs, increased discounts, and foreign exchange losses [2][6] - Operating profit margin fell by 3.5 percentage points to 17.0%, while net profit decreased by 13% to $310 million, with a net profit margin of 12.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - By region, FY2025Q3 revenue for the U.S./North America/Greater China was $1.38 billion/-2% /$1.73 billion/-3% /$510 million/+42%, with Greater China benefiting from e-commerce growth and offline store expansion, while North America faced pressure due to weak store traffic, declining average transaction value, and lower conversion rates [7] - By channel, FY2025Q3 revenue from direct sales/e-commerce was $1.21 billion/+$0.107 billion/+13%, with direct sales growth slowing sequentially, while e-commerce maintained strong growth [7] - By category, FY2025Q3 revenue for women's/men's/other products was $1.64 billion/+6% /$600 million/+8% /$320 million/+12%, showing steady performance across categories [7] Inventory and Guidance - As of FY2025Q3, the company's inventory increased by 11% year-on-year to $2 billion, with expectations for unit inventory growth in FY2026Q4 and dollar inventory growth in double digits year-on-year [12] - The company slightly raised its full-year guidance, expecting FY2025 revenue of $10.962 to $11.047 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% (previous guidance was $10.85 to $11 billion, a 2% to 4% increase) [12]
我国达成量子纠错关键里程碑,关注量子计算产业进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 15:04
行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 我国达成量子纠错关键里程碑,关注量子计算产 业进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近日,中国科学技术大学团队基于超导量子处理器"祖冲之 3.2 号"在码距为 7 的表面码上实 现了低于纠错阈值的量子纠错,使得我国达到了"低于阈值,越纠越对"的关键里程碑。我国 基于超导量子处理器"祖冲之 3.2 号"在量子纠错领域实现突破,为构建实用的大规模量子计 算机铺平了道路,我国量子计算有望进入快速发展阶段,从而重塑现有的计算体系,进而带动 包含稀释制冷机、量子芯片,整机制造、量子计算软件以及下游应用的产业上下游共同发展, 打开未来巨大产业空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title 我国达成量子纠错关键里程碑,关注量子计算 2] 产业进展 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 近日,中国科学技术大学团队基于超导量子处理器"祖冲之 3.2 号"在码距为 ...